Politics So...Europe then?

[Raven]

A recap

This Completely Batshit Week In British Politics, Explained For Americans

 

[dysfunction]

That is a perfect recap and just shows how ludicrous this whole situation is.

 

[Raven]

It also had a link to

Please Take A Moment To Enjoy This Vine Of Michael Gove Falling Over

Which I could watch all day.

 

[DaGaffer]

No, I mean corporations will start doing deals outside the EU rules, an EU that was even in the room that discussed penalising the UK and thus losing EU companies money would be toast in a week.
They are fucked...plain and simple, trade barriers to the UK...the Germans would revolt...let us carry on while be outside of the restrictions...the rest of the EU would be like...we'll do that as well.
Brexit has exposed the EU huge bare ass.

The Germans pay their import duties in plenty of markets larger than the UK, not the least, the US, so why the hell do you think they would start breaking their own rules because we think it would be a good idea? Before "official" TTIP negotiations began, the EU had been discussing free trade with the US for nearly 20 years! And they still haven't agreed it! Exactly the same bureaucracy that the more liberal minded Brexiters think is holding us back, is exactly what also stops a quick route to trade with the EU post-Brexit, unless its done through a pre-existing mechanism like EFTA, and EFTA is a strings-attached deal. There's absolutely no indication from within the EU that the UK is likely to get any special favours, and planning one's future around that kind of wish-fulfilment is the fast-track to ruin.

 

[DaGaffer]

We are not Norway...we are the second biggest economy, the largest military might and responsible for a huge chunk of Europes security through Nato.
Bring back Maggie I say, if she had todays UK to bargain with and an brexit vote, the EU would be kissing her ass.
Wtf has happened to us?

What does having more guns than anyone else have to do with anything? What are we going to do, send a gunboat to Ostend?

What the fuck has happened is we're not an empire anymore and no-one's very much impressed with our anecdotes about the good old days when brown people knew their place and fuzzie-wuzzies didn't like it up 'em.

 

[Bodhi]

And since brexit we've fallen behind France on size of economy - so we're the third biggest in the EU and six or seventh globally.

The EU can't afford to kiss our ass. They *have* to fuck us over.

Lol. It's fallen behind France if you apply the current exchange rate to last year's GDP figures, which I'm not entirely sure why you would do that, when typically you'd use the average exchange rate for the year in question? Unless of course you were trying to fiddle the number to prove a point. Oh. Oh I see.

It won't take much of a rise in Sterling for the places to be swapped round again, and personally, given the choice between the uncertainty we are facing, and what France are currently having to deal with, I'm more than happy to be this side of the Channel. In fact considering the sheer number of French people in London (6th largest French city by population iirc), I suspect I'm not alone.

However looking at the shitstorm brewing in some of the European Banks (Italy have already bailed out some to the tune of €150 Billion, and have another €40 billion ready to go, and even the mighty Deutsche Bank are looking very shaky, losing 70% of their share value, their US arm being one of only 2 banks to fail the Fed's Stress Test, and even the IMF getting a tad concerned), I'd be more tempted to suggest the positions will be reversed by a fall in the Euro, personally.

It also makes me wonder where this idea that if we had voted to Remain all would be rosy has come from, as anyone who has the slightest bit of knowledge of the current state of the Eurozone will tell you nothing could be further from the truth.

And no, they don't *have* to fuck us over. The French would like to, to quieten down Le Pen's mob at home, however the EU in general? Nope, they really don't. A couple of reasons:

1) Merkel and German Industry have already said they would like an amicable solution, and to play dirty would be "folly".
2) The US have said they will take a dim view of it, which would derail any EU-US trade talks even further.
3) Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty - "The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.".

But as everyone points out, we aren't going to get a tailor made trade agreement in the 2 years dictated by Article 50, so to me it makes sense to go down the EEA/EFTA route in the meantime. Sure we'd have to still contribute, but we would have the "Emergency Brake" on migration Cameron pathetically tried to negotiate before the referendum - witness Norway's threat to shut the border with Sweden in wake of the migrant crisis (although from the Norweigans I've met, I'm guessing it's more becuase they don't like Sweden very much...). We can then pursue our own trade deals with the rest of the world (who have already got in touch), control things like agriculture and fishing policy, and start to untangle ourselves from an outdated, inward looking protectionist bureaucracy.

Sure there will be some rocky times ahead, and lots of opportunities for tedious Europhiles to suggest that they "told us so", however in the long run, I still think we have made the right choice.

 

[Bodhi]

That is a perfect recap and just shows how ludicrous this whole situation is.

Not really, it's mostly hyperbolic nonsense strewn with factual errors.

Par for the course for Buzzfeed however.

 

[DaGaffer]

Lol. It's fallen behind France if you apply the current exchange rate to last year's GDP figures, which I'm not entirely sure why you would do that, when typically you'd use the average exchange rate for the year in question? Unless of course you were trying to fiddle the number to prove a point. Oh. Oh I see.

It won't take much of a rise in Sterling for the places to be swapped round again, and personally, given the choice between the uncertainty we are facing, and what France are currently having to deal with, I'm more than happy to be this side of the Channel. In fact considering the sheer number of French people in London (6th largest French city by population iirc), I suspect I'm not alone.

However looking at the shitstorm brewing in some of the European Banks (Italy have already bailed out some to the tune of €150 Billion, and have another €40 billion ready to go, and even the mighty Deutsche Bank are looking very shaky, losing 70% of their share value, their US arm being one of only 2 banks to fail the Fed's Stress Test, and even the IMF getting a tad concerned), I'd be more tempted to suggest the positions will be reversed by a fall in the Euro, personally.

It also makes me wonder where this idea that if we had voted to Remain all would be rosy has come from, as anyone who has the slightest bit of knowledge of the current state of the Eurozone will tell you nothing could be further from the truth.

And no, they don't *have* to fuck us over. The French would like to, to quieten down Le Pen's mob at home, however the EU in general? Nope, they really don't. A couple of reasons:

1) Merkel and German Industry have already said they would like an amicable solution, and to play dirty would be "folly".
2) The US have said they will take a dim view of it, which would derail any EU-US trade talks even further.
3) Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty - "The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.".

But as everyone points out, we aren't going to get a tailor made trade agreement in the 2 years dictated by Article 50, so to me it makes sense to go down the EEA/EFTA route in the meantime. Sure we'd have to still contribute, but we would have the "Emergency Brake" on migration Cameron pathetically tried to negotiate before the referendum - witness Norway's threat to shut the border with Sweden in wake of the migrant crisis (although from the Norweigans I've met, I'm guessing it's more becuase they don't like Sweden very much...). We can then pursue our own trade deals with the rest of the world (who have already got in touch), control things like agriculture and fishing policy, and start to untangle ourselves from an outdated, inward looking protectionist bureaucracy.

Sure there will be some rocky times ahead, and lots of opportunities for tedious Europhiles to suggest that they "told us so", however in the long run, I still think we have made the right choice.

EFTA is the only logical solution, but who's going to sell that the public given they voted out to control immigration, which they won't get?

Not really, it's mostly hyperbolic nonsense strewn with factual errors.

Par for the course for Buzzfeed however.

Actually for a Buzzfeed article, its not far off the mark.

 

[Embattle]

There’s a little-known EU rule that may stop the Brexit banking exodus

 

[ECA]

Looks like we're getting Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom as PM.

 

[Raven]

Goodie, cannot wait.

Least shit.

Suddenly my stash of food and supplies isn't looking so crazy.

 

[Scouse]

Suddenly my stash of food and supplies isn't looking so crazy.

What a wonderful position to be in eh?

 

[BloodOmen]

:l

Polish family's Plymouth home damaged in 'race hate arson attack' - BBC News

 

[Raven]

Italy migrants: Nigerian killed in Fermo race attack - BBC News

:| etc

 

[Bodhi]

Top Treasury official admits there was no Brexit contingency plan

 

[Scouse]

Top Treasury official admits there was no Brexit contingency plan

That's OK. They can just use the plan that the architects of Leave have, right?

I mean you, personally, have tried to hold me to account for my anti-capitalist views - saying I have to have an alternative before I'm allowed to criticise the current. And that's for little old me!

Last time I looked I wasn't in a position of power and leadership campaigning for the destruction of current relationships that have served us so well. So it's reasonable to expect that you are going to hold actual vote-leave to the same standard of having a well-thought-out plan, right?

I mean, it's not like you'd be happy if they just lob the grenade and resign, right? You're going to hold them to their principles?

Right??

 

[Bodhi]

That's OK. They can just use the plan that the architects of Leave have, right?

I mean you, personally, have tried to hold me to account for my anti-capitalist views - saying I have to have an alternative before I'm allowed to criticise the current. And that's for little old me!

Last time I looked I wasn't in a position of power and leadership campaigning for the destruction of current relationships that have served us so well. So it's reasonable to expect that you are going to hold actual vote-leave to the same standard of having a well-thought-out plan, right?

I mean, it's not like you'd be happy if they just lob the grenade and resign, right? You're going to hold them to their principles?

Right??

It's not all about you you know

Sure, Leave should have had a bit more of an idea about what to do next - perhaps worked with the government and civil service to explore the possibilities - sadly early on in the campaign they were denied access to both, which does make concrete plans that little bit more difficult. Mind you I didn't see much of a plan for if we voted to Remain - we were always told we could reform the EU from within, how was that going to be achieved? What were we going to do when the "Ever Closer Union" reared it's head again, etc?

However in my book you can't really call a referendum without considering what to do if you don't get the result you want - to me Cameron has to assume a lot of the responsibility there. But then, I was also of the opinion that Cameron shouldn't really have picked sides, and stayed neutral throughout, ready to go forwards with whatever the country decided.

 

[Job]

How could they plan anything when you dont know the EUs reaction, it is the very fact that they are a hodge podge of grumbling countries that makes working with them difficult and leaving a chaotic event.
You only have to read the news, double check the context and you will find an endless list of subtle and no so subtle threats, plus backings and solidarity that changes day by day.
Obama has gone from back of the queue to front of the queue.
Any plan would have fallen off the tracks two days into it.
One minute Junckers is calling the shots, then Merkel overides him...some minister finds an obscure law, Poland chips in, Putin chips in...
The EU will be happy with itself when it becomes a federal superstate...well for six months till it self destructs.

 

[DaGaffer]

How could they plan anything when you dont know the EUs reaction, it is the very fact that they are a hodge podge of grumbling countries that makes working with them difficult and leaving a chaotic event.
You only have to read the news, double check the context and you will find an endless list of subtle and no so subtle threats, plus backings and solidarity that changes day by day.
Obama has gone from back of the queue to front of the queue.
Any plan would have fallen off the tracks two days into it.
One minute Junckers is calling the shots, then Merkel overides him...some minister finds an obscure law, Poland chips in, Putin chips in...
The EU will be happy with itself when it becomes a federal superstate...well for six months till it self destructs.

Its called scenario planning and you could do it for a wide range of outcomes. And economists did quite a bit of it, all of which was ignored because experts are bad apparently.

 

[Job]

Economists eh...a 12 yr old could guess the outcome..change makes markets nervous..big crash..recovers..pound stays low till it proves itself.
Everything else is guesswork...so called experts in economics are simply educated guessers, if not they would all be billionaires.
There was planning...to look for markets outside the EU, install points based immigration and renegotiate trade deals.
But two of those are done by private companies, the government can only smooth the path.

 

[Gwadien]

Here we go again, those pesky 'experts' who think they know what they're talking about!

 

[DaGaffer]

Economists eh...a 12 yr old could guess the outcome..change makes markets nervous..big crash..recovers..pound stays low till it proves itself.
Everything else is guesswork...so called experts in economics are simply educated guessers, if not they would all be billionaires.
There was planning...to look for markets outside the EU, install points based immigration and renegotiate trade deals.
But two of those are done by private companies, the government can only smooth the path.

I'm not talking about the short-term hit; I'm talking about what an actual "out" UK looks like if its under WTO rules, under EFTA rules or everyone's driving around a Mad-Max wasteland. These things can be modelled and I'm sure they have been by banks and other competent people.

 

[ECA]

Doomsday (2008) - IMDb

 

[Job]

Hopefully, the Bank of England did, but mostly just normal reaction to calm the markets...soothing words, talk slowly , mention cash reserves.
It is now political and that's a whole different ball game.
I believe the UK can offer China and India better deals without all those responsibility problems and comebacks.

 

[Moriath]

Hopefully, the Bank of England did, but mostly just normal reaction to calm the markets...soothing words, talk slowly , mention cash reserves.
It is now political and that's a whole different ball game.
I believe the UK can offer China and India better deals without all those responsibility problems and comebacks.

but will they offer us better deals ?

 

[Gwadien]

Hopefully, the Bank of England did, but mostly just normal reaction to calm the markets...soothing words, talk slowly , mention cash reserves.
It is now political and that's a whole different ball game.
I believe the UK can offer China and India better deals without all those responsibility problems and comebacks.

Oh, look.

Job is now a trade expert along with some of the 17 million other Brits, but the people that do it for a living are all wrong.

I really do find this attitude amazing.

 

[Job]

Hardly, starting trade deals with China and India was one of the main reasons for brexit, what do we have to offer them over the EU?
I believe it's less questions and more perks.

 

[dysfunction]

Oh well if you believe it, it must be true!

 

[Job]

Well thankyou.

 

[dysfunction]

Oh and who do you know in this country is a skilled trade deal negotiator?