Politics So...Europe then?

[Deebs]

Looking nice and peachy in Germany Blow for Merkel as German talks collapse

 

[Raven]

It's almost strong and stable, but not quite

She will have to cosy up with the self proclaimed, actual racists to form a government.

Kind of makes people banging on about the 1% or whatever insignificant number it was that voted for UKIP (not openly racist) look pretty dumb.

 

[Bodhi]

Meh. It's easy for banks to move their main legal operations base. It's as simple as changing some legal documentation. Massive infrastructure change doesn't need to happen overnight (though it is) - but in terms of passporting rules etc, it's relatively easy for them to ditch the UK. The infrastructure can move afterwards, if it needs to.

Which I'm currently watching them do, whilst people all about me find themselves redundant as stuff/people in HK, Singapore, US and Paris/Frankfurt gets massively ramped up instead.

I really don't think you understand as much about the situation as you think you do. For instance, the biggest financial centre for Euro clearing is London. The second? New York. So if passporting gets removed then the City just falls back on the same rules New York are using (equivalence) - and good luck to the EU doing anything about that. They could, but the Euro would be finished as a major currency within a week.

Most of the people I know who actually work in the city (i.e in Finance, not IT Contractors) aren't especially concerned about moving to Frankfurt, as they find the idea of Frankfurt as a major economic centre quite comical.

 

[Job]

So finally letting in millions of migrants has finally come back to bite her while lurching German politics to the right.
What an utter fuck up.

German coalition talks collapse after deadlock on migration and energy

 

[Raven]

I did read an interesting opinion piece earlier, can't find it now. But basically the gist was that modern politicians are so fucking useless that its actually healthy to trundle along without a government for a while, just to release stress.

 

[Scouse]

I really don't think you understand as much about the situation as you think you do.

Ditto.

 

[BloodOmen]

Every one of the left-behind areas at risk of going further backwards voted Leave

Every area that voted Remain is well-placed to cope with future shifts

Remoaners indeed

 

[SilverHood]

Ditto.

I may not agree with Bodhi on many things, but he's right in this case. What will move to the EU is the legal entity that companies are using. It's names in a registry, a few database entries somewhere. Maybe a few hundred people at the most. Workers in London are going to wear two hats, one for the UK legal entity, another for the European Union legal entity that they represent. If they think that businesses are going to move entire departments to EU countries, they are massively mistaken.

When I worked at RBS, even though my employer was RBS Securities Incorporated (A US company), there was no differentiation between RBS UK, RBS US and the leftover bits of ABN Amro that RBS had bought. The systems were the same, and the legal entity was a field that wasn't even displayed unless you manually added it.
At Deutsche Bank, my payslip was some New Jersey incorporated legal entity. The reality was that I worked for the DB New York division, and the name of my payslip didn't really matter that much; I supported the platforms used across the world, and could log onto a server in Asia or Europe as easily as a NY server.
I have friends at other banks who recently sold their African, Asian or South American businesses. Their technology was entirely based in London or NY, so as soon as the ink was dry, they started a new business in that region. Why not? They have the infrastructure and the expertise sitting offshore... A few local fixers and you're away.

Now, the EU have said that doing the above wont be acceptable.... but just how are they going to stop it? The Swiss banks have internal firewalls that prevent non Swiss divisions from accessing Swiss servers. It's a total mess from a technology perspective. I can't see that working for anyone else.

 

[Raven]

Every one of the left-behind areas at risk of going further backwards voted Leave

Every area that voted Remain is well-placed to cope with future shifts

Remoaners indeed

I'm curious what that is meant to actually mean.

Are they attempting to suggest that if we remained jobs would not be lost to automation? That by leaving the machines will be taking over and its skynet come to life!?

 

[Raven]

I may not agree with Bodhi on many things, but he's right in this case. What will move to the EU is the legal entity that companies are using. It's names in a registry, a few database entries somewhere. Maybe a few hundred people at the most. Workers in London are going to wear two hats, one for the UK legal entity, another for the European Union legal entity that they represent. If they think that businesses are going to move entire departments to EU countries, they are massively mistaken.

When I worked at RBS, even though my employer was RBS Securities Incorporated (A US company), there was no differentiation between RBS UK, RBS US and the leftover bits of ABN Amro that RBS had bought. The systems were the same, and the legal entity was a field that wasn't even displayed unless you manually added it.
At Deutsche Bank, my payslip was some New Jersey incorporated legal entity. The reality was that I worked for the DB New York division, and the name of my payslip didn't really matter that much; I supported the platforms used across the world, and could log onto a server in Asia or Europe as easily as a NY server.
I have friends at other banks who recently sold their African, Asian or South American businesses. Their technology was entirely based in London or NY, so as soon as the ink was dry, they started a new business in that region. Why not? They have the infrastructure and the expertise sitting offshore... A few local fixers and you're away.

Now, the EU have said that doing the above wont be acceptable.... but just how are they going to stop it? The Swiss banks have internal firewalls that prevent non Swiss divisions from accessing Swiss servers. It's a total mess from a technology perspective. I can't see that working for anyone else.

DORIS THE TEA LADY WORKS AT THE BANK AND SHE SAYS YOU ARE WRONG OMG

But yeah, people don't seem to realise that financial institutions are multi-national these days, where they fix their brass plate is pretty meaningless as far as staff are concerned.

 

[dysfunction]

But not meaningless for EU passporting system for banks and financial services. Even if your Head Office is domiciled in the EU, your UK Financial service co won't be part of the passporting unless we come to some agreement so it will cost more.

British banks 'will lose access to the EU' after Brexit

 

[Scouse]

If they think that businesses are going to move entire departments to EU countries, they are massively mistaken.

And yet I'm working at a bank watching them do exactly that to their staff.

Sure, some of their infrastructure is remaining in the UK, but all the cool new stuff that was scheduled for here is now going into HK.

It's almost as if the banks are abiding by the letter, if not the spirit, of the law eh? I mean, they'd rather ship jobs out of the UK so they can be seen by their EU paymasters to be toeing the line so their businesses don't get hit hard with an EU ban-stick? It looks good politically for the EU and the banks don't really give a fuck either way, so they're going to do what the big dog (i.e. not us) wants...

 

[Scouse]

I'm curious what that is meant to actually mean.

It's pretty obvious - the better off (and better educated) are going to not get hurt by Brexit, despite having largely voted remain, whereas the poor and/or thick - the Brexiteers - are the ones who are going to (continue to) get bummed (though harder, from now on).

 

[DaGaffer]

I may not agree with Bodhi on many things, but he's right in this case. What will move to the EU is the legal entity that companies are using. It's names in a registry, a few database entries somewhere. Maybe a few hundred people at the most. Workers in London are going to wear two hats, one for the UK legal entity, another for the European Union legal entity that they represent. If they think that businesses are going to move entire departments to EU countries, they are massively mistaken.

When I worked at RBS, even though my employer was RBS Securities Incorporated (A US company), there was no differentiation between RBS UK, RBS US and the leftover bits of ABN Amro that RBS had bought. The systems were the same, and the legal entity was a field that wasn't even displayed unless you manually added it.
At Deutsche Bank, my payslip was some New Jersey incorporated legal entity. The reality was that I worked for the DB New York division, and the name of my payslip didn't really matter that much; I supported the platforms used across the world, and could log onto a server in Asia or Europe as easily as a NY server.
I have friends at other banks who recently sold their African, Asian or South American businesses. Their technology was entirely based in London or NY, so as soon as the ink was dry, they started a new business in that region. Why not? They have the infrastructure and the expertise sitting offshore... A few local fixers and you're away.

Now, the EU have said that doing the above wont be acceptable.... but just how are they going to stop it? The Swiss banks have internal firewalls that prevent non Swiss divisions from accessing Swiss servers. It's a total mess from a technology perspective. I can't see that working for anyone else.

Why does Deutsche Bank employ thousands of people in New York, London, a dozen other places? Believe it or not, there are a lot more jobs in banking than IT. And quite a few of those (asset management for example) do need to be domiciled. If they didn't every bank in the world would already be just a plaque in the Cayman Islands, and one day that might be the case, but not now. Does it mean London will be gutted? Of course not, but it certainly won't be unaffected.

 

[Raven]

But its hardly going to collapse into a big hole in the ground, is it?

While I am sure some of the people that need constant reassurance would like that to happen, for whatever reason, its just not going to happen.

 

[DaGaffer]

But its hardly going to collapse into a big hole in the ground, is it?

While I am sure some of the people that need constant reassurance would like that to happen, for whatever reason, its just not going to happen.

My issue with what's going on is that its all so unnecessary. UKGov doesn't have to pursue a hard Brexit, doesn't have to leave the customs union, and yet they seem to be determinedly heading towards both those things on purely ideological grounds, despite everyone, including the banks, the CBI and their own civil servants telling them its a dumb idea that's going to cause a world of pain for little or no benefit. And while no, The City isn't going to collapse into a big hole in the ground, over time, as investment decisions are being made, and its a choice between 400m people in the EU or 65m in the UK, the money will go to the EU. It just will. And in order to service the next big growth opportunity in the EU, which was cross-border financial services beyond banking (e.g. insurance), British companies will now have to do that from within the EU, and the revenues and taxes from that will stay in the EU.

 

[dysfunction]

Exactly what's happening in the Insurance company I'm working in. We have a UK company setup purely to do insurance in Europe. That will now be moved to Europe somewhere unless the UK Gov gets their act together.

 

[Wij]

My issue with what's going on is that its all so unnecessary. UKGov doesn't have to pursue a hard Brexit, doesn't have to leave the customs union, and yet they seem to be determinedly heading towards both those things on purely ideological grounds, despite everyone, including the banks, the CBI and their own civil servants telling them its a dumb idea that's going to cause a world of pain for little or no benefit. And while no, The City isn't going to collapse into a big hole in the ground, over time, as investment decisions are being made, and its a choice between 400m people in the EU or 65m in the UK, the money will go to the EU. It just will. And in order to service the next big growth opportunity in the EU, which was cross-border financial services beyond banking (e.g. insurance), British companies will now have to do that from within the EU, and the revenues and taxes from that will stay in the EU.

It was all set in motion from the moment May announced that they didn't want the ECJ to have any legal power over the UK. Everything else is a logical consequence of that.

Which is dumb. Because where you co-operate on trade rules and mutual recognition of standards then you need a supra-national body to regulate disputes or the whole thing is pointless. That's what the ECJ is.

Saying you don't want the ECJ to have any legal force in the UK is ruling out virtually any co-operation. The best we could get is a Canada-style deal.

What's even dumber is portraying WTO rules as some saviour. "We don't want to abide by mutually agreed rules so instead we are going to abide by a different set of mutually agreed rules that are materially worse for us!"

 

[Job]

Things have got nasty now.

EU cancels Britain’s hosting of European capital of culture

 

[Raven]

lol

MY BALL I'M, TAKING IT HOME

 

[Bodhi]

But not meaningless for EU passporting system for banks and financial services. Even if your Head Office is domiciled in the EU, your UK Financial service co won't be part of the passporting unless we come to some agreement so it will cost more.

British banks 'will lose access to the EU' after Brexit

Problem is, passporting works both ways. There are currently 5,000 UK companies which use Passprting to access the EU market - and 9,000 EU based companies which use to to access the City of London.

Good read on it here https://capx.co/the-eus-euro-clearing-plan-is-an-act-of-protectionist-self-harm/

Basically, the EU can't do much to London without shooting itself in the foot and pissing off the rest of the world. Pragmatism will ensure a solution is found.

 

[Scouse]

lol

MY BALL I'M, TAKING IT HOME

We'll be out of Europe. Why the fuck should we retain it? It's worth a shedload of cash - that they'll now spend on a European city instead.

What? Do you think they should still renovate our deprived areas for us? We know UK.Gov won't bother - so why should the EU any more?

 

[Job]

You mean, with our money....regardless of how it plays out, it was our money, well what was left after propping up basketcase economies.

 

[Bodhi]

We'll be out of Europe.

Will we? Where are we going? Do we get to be our own continent now and everything?

Awesome, Scotland might make the World Cup

 

[Raven]

Don't you know?!?! when we leave the EU the ropes are being cut and we are floating off into the Atlantic!

The experts said so!

 

[Bodhi]

Don't you know?!?! when we leave the EU the ropes are being cut and we are floating off into the Atlantic!

The experts said so!

I hadn't read that. Don't have time to keep up with the predictions these days old chap, I'm too busy washing my own car.

 

[Scouse]

Don't know how you can honestly be butthurt that sometime in the next decade the European Union is going to spend European Union money on a European Union city and not on a British one.

You guys are so weird. You're raging about things that don't even merit a second thought.

 

[Bodhi]

Yes. I'm raging about the fact that I'll never be able to use the phrase "Dundee: City of Culture" and have to try to keep a straight face.

 

[Raven]

...or Milton Keynes.

 

[Job]

No one butthurt..its the comedy of it.
Everyone just needs to get a fucking grip and be reminded how important the UK is to Europe.
Scouse loves to call brexiters as poor idiots, if we were not in it youd have to be an idiot to want to join such a basketcase of arguing countries all living off the back of Germany.