Hawkwind
FH is my second home
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Not surprising, start with a wish list and negotiate down.
Politics So...Europe then?
- Thread starter Raven
- Start date
Gwadien
Uneducated Northern Cretin
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- Jul 15, 2006
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Macron and Le Pen run off...
I think this second round is possibly one of the most important elections in the World at the minute.
It will ultimately say whether mainstream society would rather link up with far right views or socialist views.
I think this second round is possibly one of the most important elections in the World at the minute.
It will ultimately say whether mainstream society would rather link up with far right views or socialist views.
Job
The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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- Dec 22, 2003
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The damage is all ready done..millions have voted for the National Front and against the EU by default.
That might have something to do with the fact that Hollande is one of the most unpopular presidents ever.
And there are still lots of votes still to count from the big cities, where Macron is more popular than Le Pen (or rather "not Le Pen" is more popular than Le Pen).
And there are still lots of votes still to count from the big cities, where Macron is more popular than Le Pen (or rather "not Le Pen" is more popular than Le Pen).
Gwadien
Uneducated Northern Cretin
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Eh @caLLous maybe you could shed some light on this.
I read an article the other day that was saying that Macron had a big job under Hollander and that Hollande said the guy was going to go far.
I assumed that meant that they were in the same party or did Macron leave due to not getting picked?
Turns out he did.. I thought En Marche was a slogan not a party!
Is this a common thing in France?
No idea. Macron worked under Hollande and Valls before quitting to go for the Presidency. Don't know why he quit but he probably recognised that the writing was on the wall for Hollande/the Socialists. I don't think he'd be where he was if it wasn't for the Fillon implosion. After the primaries he was seen as the probably opponent for Le Pen in round 2 but then the shit hit the fan regarding his employment of his wife and whether or not she actually did anything. Consequently, Macron shot up in popularity almost overnight.
Job
The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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BloodOmen
I am a FH squatter
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The full tweet chain went like this:
1) May had said she wanted to talk not just Brexit but also world problems; but in practice it fell to Juncker to propose one to discuss.
2) May has made clear to the Commission that she fully expects to be reelected as PM.
3) It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.
4) May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.
5) EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June.
6) Juncker objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg on rights to health care.
7) Juncker pulled two piles of paper from his bag: Croatia's EU entry deal, Canada's free trade deal. His point: Brexit will be v v complex.
8) May wanted to work through the Brexit talks in monthly, 4-day blocks; all confidential until the end of the process.
9) Commission said impossible to reconcile this with need to square off member states & European Parliament, so documents must be published.
10) EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses. "Let us make Brexit a success" she told them.
11) Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".
12) May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed.
13) She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in reality.
14) May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.
15) ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit
16) "The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was only half way through the dinner)
17) May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.
18) Her guests then informed her that the EU is not a golf club
19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.
20) ...leaving EU27 with UK's unpaid bills will involve national parliaments in process (a point that Berlin had made repeatedly before).
21) "I leave Downing St ten times as sceptical as I was before" Juncker told May as he left
22) Next morning at c7am Juncker called Merkel on her mobile, said May living in another galaxy & totally deluding herself
23) Merkel quickly reworked her speech to Bundestag to include her now-famous "some in Britain still have illusions" comment
24) FAZ concludes: May in election mode & playing to crowd, but what use is a big majority won by nurturing delusions of Brexit hardliners?
25) Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.
26) What to make of it all? Obviously this leak is a highly tactical move by Commission. But contents deeply worrying for UK nonetheless.
27) The report points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.
28) Presumably as a result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27
29) Also clear that (as some of us have been warning for a while...) No 10 should expect every detail of the Brexit talks to leak.
30/30) Sorry for the long thread. And a reminder: full credit for all the above reporting on the May/Juncker dinner goes to the FAZ.
1) May had said she wanted to talk not just Brexit but also world problems; but in practice it fell to Juncker to propose one to discuss.
2) May has made clear to the Commission that she fully expects to be reelected as PM.
3) It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.
4) May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.
5) EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June.
6) Juncker objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg on rights to health care.
7) Juncker pulled two piles of paper from his bag: Croatia's EU entry deal, Canada's free trade deal. His point: Brexit will be v v complex.
8) May wanted to work through the Brexit talks in monthly, 4-day blocks; all confidential until the end of the process.
9) Commission said impossible to reconcile this with need to square off member states & European Parliament, so documents must be published.
10) EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses. "Let us make Brexit a success" she told them.
11) Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".
12) May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed.
13) She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in reality.
14) May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.
15) ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit
16) "The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was only half way through the dinner)
17) May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.
18) Her guests then informed her that the EU is not a golf club
19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.
20) ...leaving EU27 with UK's unpaid bills will involve national parliaments in process (a point that Berlin had made repeatedly before).
21) "I leave Downing St ten times as sceptical as I was before" Juncker told May as he left
22) Next morning at c7am Juncker called Merkel on her mobile, said May living in another galaxy & totally deluding herself
23) Merkel quickly reworked her speech to Bundestag to include her now-famous "some in Britain still have illusions" comment
24) FAZ concludes: May in election mode & playing to crowd, but what use is a big majority won by nurturing delusions of Brexit hardliners?
25) Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.
26) What to make of it all? Obviously this leak is a highly tactical move by Commission. But contents deeply worrying for UK nonetheless.
27) The report points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.
28) Presumably as a result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27
29) Also clear that (as some of us have been warning for a while...) No 10 should expect every detail of the Brexit talks to leak.
30/30) Sorry for the long thread. And a reminder: full credit for all the above reporting on the May/Juncker dinner goes to the FAZ.
Job
The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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- Dec 22, 2003
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- 21,652
This is all just utter bollocks...britains 'position' in Europe will be dictated by her power..not waffling eurocrats.
The bureaucracy of the EU just gets more irrelevant everyday as it tries to hold together the forces pulling it apart.
These complexities are the symptoms of the disease, the truth of our relationship lies at much more basic level.
The bureaucracy of the EU just gets more irrelevant everyday as it tries to hold together the forces pulling it apart.
These complexities are the symptoms of the disease, the truth of our relationship lies at much more basic level.
Embattle
FH is my second home
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Job
The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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No power..seriously..the EU is held together by the Germans, we are a huge trading partner..the relationship between britain france and germany is by far the most important part of the EU, without that..it is fucked.
This is all bollocks talk and all this voting/ deals is bullshit, the REAL power balance will decide the outcome here.
This is all bollocks talk and all this voting/ deals is bullshit, the REAL power balance will decide the outcome here.
DaGaffer
Down With That Sorta Thing
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2003
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- 18,412
I'll reiterate; she has no power. The sheer levels of delusion I'm hearing coming out of the UK is starting to freak me out; what kind of parallel universe are you living in? Even if the EU suffers by doing a trade deal that is economically poor for the EU, it still has to do it. The UK cannot get a good deal off the EU for leaving. This isn't economics, this is politics. Even if Germany suffers from reduced trade with the UK, better that than unravelling the EU if other members see that membership of the club doesn't really have any benefits. The Germans will take the long view on this, that if the UK gets stuck on WTO rules for a few years, eventually they'll come back to the table and compromise, which, of course they will because UKGov is suddenly going to realise turning the UK into a European Singapore is a shitload harder than it looks.
The fact that the EU has made it clear that there's going to be no secret negotiations and it all goes to the member states and the Parliament tells you all you need to know; the UK has made such a big deal over the lack of accountability of the EU apparatus that they are going to make a point of this being the most transparent and "democratic" negotiation you've ever seen, and have no fucking problem with everyone from Poland to Portugal nitpicking the agreement to death. Britain is going to get a shit deal or no deal.
