Politics So...Europe then?

[Wij]

This is all just utter bollocks...britains 'position' in Europe will be dictated by her power..not waffling eurocrats.
The bureaucracy of the EU just gets more irrelevant everyday as it tries to hold together the forces pulling it apart.
These complexities are the symptoms of the disease, the truth of our relationship lies at much more basic level.

Eurocrats?

The deal will have to be accepted by the elected representatives of the populations of 27 other sovereign nations. They won't be queueing up to pay our bills for us.

 

[Wij]

I'll reiterate; she has no power. The sheer levels of delusion I'm hearing coming out of the UK is starting to freak me out; what kind of parallel universe are you living in? Even if the EU suffers by doing a trade deal that is economically poor for the EU, it still has to do it. The UK cannot get a good deal off the EU for leaving. This isn't economics, this is politics. Even if Germany suffers from reduced trade with the UK, better that than unravelling the EU if other members see that membership of the club doesn't really have any benefits. The Germans will take the long view on this, that if the UK gets stuck on WTO rules for a few years, eventually they'll come back to the table and compromise, which, of course they will because UKGov is suddenly going to realise turning the UK into a European Singapore is a shitload harder than it looks.

The fact that the EU has made it clear that there's going to be no secret negotiations and it all goes to the member states and the Parliament tells you all you need to know; the UK has made such a big deal over the lack of accountability of the EU apparatus that they are going to make a point of this being the most transparent and "democratic" negotiation you've ever seen, and have no fucking problem with everyone from Poland to Portugal nitpicking the agreement to death. Britain is going to get a shit deal or no deal.

Agreed. The best thing by far would be to have stayed in the single market and customs union. Anything else is a pipe-dream to achieve in 2 years and will be worse for us when eventually negotiated, guaranteed.

 

[Job]

None of this is real...do you honestly think this charade is anything but fluff, its like reading handbags at dawn, the huge corporations pull the strings...theyll get the trade deals they want, everything will be renamed, theyll paint 'brexit sorted' on the old boxes and things will soldier on ..rich stay rich.
The forces at play in the European circus are far bigger than the EU.

Why does no one address the fact that May was anti brexit, then suddenly became Ms brexit.
She did it to grab all the ukip votes, steal their thunder then go through a make believe brexit to keep everyone happy.

 

[Job]

Study finds UK is second most powerful country in the world

Could be bollocks...just a study by someone who studies.

 

[Wij]

None of this is real...do you honestly think this charade is anything but fluff, its like reading handbags at dawn, the huge corporations pull the strings...theyll get the trade deals they want, everything will be renamed, theyll paint 'brexit sorted' on the old boxes and things will soldier on ..rich stay rich.
The forces at play in the European circus are far bigger than the EU.

Why does no one address the fact that May was anti brexit, then suddenly became Ms brexit.
She did it to grab all the ukip votes, steal their thunder then go through a make believe brexit to keep everyone happy.

The UK was sold the norway/switzerland option by the brexiteers and is now being told that's not what they voted for:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNCwcTu9U6U

 

[Gwadien]

Anyone noticed that Farage speaks quietly when contradicting himself and when making bullshit points he's really loud?

 

[dysfunction]

It seems to me that the EU have a proper strategy in place for the Brexit negotiations whereas the UK Government just seem to think they can wing it.
Makes them look like a fish out of water.

Thinking that you have more cards to play than the EU does is just foolish.

 

[Raven]

So far it just appears their strategy is to just talk bollocks and play a game. One that won't go down well with German exporters.

Once again, fuck'um and their increasingly desperate threats.

 

[Job]

As Raven says..is this it...billions at stake and they send over Hein shmuck to wind everyone up...goes home and tells the papers its all tits up.
Thats Trump level bolocks...they should send industry leaders...actually, they are behind the scenes.

 

[DaGaffer]

So far it just appears their strategy is to just talk bollocks and play a game. One that won't go down well with German exporters.

Once again, fuck'um and their increasingly desperate threats.

The UK accounts for 7.6% of German exports; the EU accounts for over 40% of UK exports. The EU can absorb far more damage to their economies from a bad deal with the UK than the can can with a bad deal with EU. This is so obvious a monkey with a railway spike in its brain could see it.

The EU is not issuing desperate threats, its stating really fucking obvious facts. Just look at the proposed UK work plan for the negotiations; "oh we'll do four days a week once a month". What the actual fuck? When Juncker dumped down the six inch thick Croatia accession document, he did it to make a really straightforward point that the retards in UK Gov don't seem to get without someone giving them simple visual aids; this is going to be hard. The Croatia accession was pretty much a boilerplate accession and it took decade to achieve; Brexit is virgin territory for everyone and UK Gov is acting like its as much effort as a slightly tricky expenses claim.

UK Gov are fucking clueless about what Brexit is going to take because they simply assume they'll get exactly what they want because "its in everybody's economic interest". Utterly irrelevant and they're going to spend two years talking past each other if the UK thinks this is about trade.

 

[DaGaffer]

As Raven says..is this it...billions at stake and they send over Hein shmuck to wind everyone up...goes home and tells the papers its all tits up.
Thats Trump level bolocks...they should send industry leaders...actually, they are behind the scenes.

Jesus. You could make the same argument for every single trade deal the EU has negotiated, and it still hasn't stopped each and every one of them taking decades to complete. US trade is far more valuable to the EU overall than UK trade, and they still don't have an agreement (and are unlikely to get one now). EU politicians are less supine than British ones when it comes to what industry wants, because they have to be; its 27 voices, all with different agendas. One half of Belgium, a regional government, held up the entire EU-Canadian trade agreement for two years, and you think no-one in the EU is going to do that with Brexit? Which is much, MUCH, wider negotiation than a trade deal. You're delusional. Spain, Poland, Ireland, Portugal, Denmark. All will have specific axes to grind on everything from fishing to tax to population rights to border control.

People in the UK need to wake the fuck up.

 

[Raven]

I am sure that sounds about right in your head...however, Germany exports roughly 25 billion in goods and services to us, above what they import from us. France ~5 billion, The Netherlands ~8 billion and Spain ~10 billion.

Lets be honest, nobody really gives a shit about the rest of the EU...not really, they are just filler for cheap labour. If they make it hard, those few countries out of 27 will be the ones worse off.

 

[DaGaffer]

I am sure that sounds about right in your head...however, Germany exports roughly 25 billion in goods and services to us, above what they import from us. France ~5 billion, The Netherlands ~8 billion and Spain ~10 billion.

Lets be honest, nobody really gives a shit about the rest of the EU...not really, they are just filler for cheap labour. If they make it hard, those few countries out of 27 will be the ones worse off.

It doesn't matter. The EU negotiates as a block, and can veto individually. And individual countries can and do do that, despite the desires of BMW and Mercedes to flog more cars. While I'm sure UK Gov would actually love it if they could just get around the table with some German industrialists and carve out a deal, but its not going to happen. I'll say it again, this is not going to be about trade. That's about the third or fourth priority for the EU.

 

[Raven]

So what? Cold hard cash is what keeps people employed, employment keeps people happy, people being happy enables the EU to exist. Sure, they could cut off their noses to spite their face, which would be hugely amusing and at the same time damaging to the EU Ltd but not exactly the most intelligent thing to do.

If its down to the idiotic comity of piss pot countries dictating to important countries then it will just turn into yet another demonstration of why the EU is doomed. A French, German and Dutch nationalists wet dream

 

[DaGaffer]

So what? Cold hard cash is what keeps people employed, employment keeps people happy, people being happy enables the EU to exist. Sure, they could cut off their noses to spite their face, which would be hugely amusing and at the same time damaging to the EU Ltd but not exactly the most intelligent thing to do.

If its down to the idiotic comity of piss pot countries dictating to important countries then it will just turn into yet another demonstration of why the EU is doomed. A French, German and Dutch nationalists wet dream

You're displaying the exact lack of understanding about what the EU is that's bedevilled UK engagement with the EU for 40 years. They will cut their nose off to spite their face because politics is more important to them than economics. The EU is not primarily a free trade club. That's one job of the EU among many, and the UK has always struggled to acknowledge that basic truth, and its still happening. You may think this means the EU is doomed, better off out, yadda, yadda. Fine, great, you could even be right; but Britain still has to negotiate with the EU as it is, not the EU as we want it to be.

 

[Scouse]

EU has to fuck over the UK and be seen to be fucking us over. Has to.

It's political idiocy to see it any other way. Though UK.gov and the rightwing press will still say we've got a great deal if we eventually get to the finish line.

 

[Bodhi]

Cool. Just shows we were right to leave then.

Also interesting that the peace loving EU have brought up the subject of reuniting Ireland. Which isn't going to kick the troubles off again in any way shape or form....

 

[Job]

It would seem so but if you stand back and consider that the job of the EU is to punish people who are not in their club..then the whole ponzi scheme looks like a disaster slowly unfolding.
Imagine if the UK had never been in the EU...how would you rate our chances as they approached us.
We wouldn't touch it with a bargepole..
The EUs problem IS its 27 countries..unless they go federal they will fail...and if they go federal it will be war within 20 years.
We need to build a wall.

 

[Bodhi]

It would seem so but if you stand back and consider that the job of the EU is to punish people who are not in their club..then the whole ponzi scheme looks like a disaster slowly unfolding.
Imagine if the UK had never been in the EU...how would you rate our chances as they approached us.
We wouldn't touch it with a bargepole..
The EUs problem IS its 27 countries..unless they go federal they will fail...and if they go federal it will be war within 20 years.
We need to build a wall.

Why? We don't have a Mexican problem that I am aware of?

 

[Job]

Or a moat..oh hang on..thats sorted.

 

[DaGaffer]

Cool. Just shows we were right to leave then.

Also interesting that the peace loving EU have brought up the subject of reuniting Ireland. Which isn't going to kick the troubles off again in any way shape or form....

Because a hard border isn't going to do that anyway? Northern Ireland is fucked by Brexit (not by the EU, by Brexit) no matter which way you look at it.

 

[Scouse]

Cool. Just shows we were right to leave then.

Also interesting that the peace loving EU have brought up the subject of reuniting Ireland. Which isn't going to kick the troubles off again in any way shape or form....

How does that show anything other than the obvious? That was obvious before brexit to all - and we knew that and signed up to it because nobody thought we'd be fucking dumb enough to leave.

The Ireland thing was also intertwined with brexit and we went into that full in the knowledge that current peace is predicated on ECHR etc.

And a reminder - it's our fault. We voted to leave...

 

[Raven]

I think various people need to get themselves a basic grounding in European civil history. Specifically what happens when when France and Germany lose manufacturing and blue collar jobs.

Top tip, they go straight to the extreme solution. Putting dinner on the table is far more important to them that any rainbow gorged EU super state. It would be suicidal for both France and Germany for the EU to be complete children over Brexit, however as mentioned they have virtually no say as individual states.

Hilarious situation, the EU is damned if they do, damned if they don't. No wonder the corrupt leaders are so salty.

It really is irrelevant what it says in the shiny EU brochure, it is about consolidating wealth and at the same time creating a huge, manageable, cheap labour force. Nothing else.

 

[Job]

The second largest economy in the EU and one of its two founders has just voted through a rabid anti EU fascist who wants to bring back the Franc and destroy the EU, she is no fringe loonball, but a VERY serious contender.
And this is supposed to be a stable bloc of nations..whos kidding who here?
The EU will survive the French vote by the skin of its teeth and the anger isnt going anywhere.

 

[DaGaffer]

I think various people need to get themselves a basic grounding in European civil history. Specifically what happens when when France and Germany lose manufacturing and blue collar jobs.

Top tip, they go straight to the extreme solution. Putting dinner on the table is far more important to them that any rainbow gorged EU super state. It would be suicidal for both France and Germany for the EU to be complete children over Brexit, however as mentioned they have virtually no say as individual states.

Hilarious situation, the EU is damned if they do, damned if they don't. No wonder the corrupt leaders are so salty.

It really is irrelevant what it says in the shiny EU brochure, it is about consolidating wealth and at the same time creating a huge, manageable, cheap labour force. Nothing else.

The rest of the EU is more important economically and politically to Germany, and especially France, than the UK is. Simple fact. Anything they do that gives the impression to other EU members that the UK is getting a better deal out than in, is more risky for France and Germany (who both have 40%+ exports to other EU members not including the UK), especially Eurozone members, who the Germans own. Damage limitation for them is making sure no one else gets ideas about fucking off. Now, Marine Le Pen could get in to power next week and the whole thing falls apart, but right now, if Macron wins, the French and Germans (the Germans love Macron) will present a united front against the UK.

I don't know why I'm bothering to post but I tell you what @Raven, @Bodhi, @Job, what if I'm right? What's the UK's Plan B for a WTO EU relationship, no trade deals with other countries (because they won't have any within two years because other countries will be waiting to see what they're actually going to be trading with). Obviously they'll tell everyone to tighten their belts and "pull together as a nation", but do you honestly think they have an actual workable plan on the evidence of what seen so far for Plan A?

 

[Scouse]

I tell you what @Raven, @Bodhi, @Job, what if I'm right?

That's not how these discussions go down Gaff. You'll be asked to justify every reasoned argument you make whilst they won't provide a reasoned argument of their own of why they think it's going to go down their way - rather they'll make glib witticisms like "good job we left then eh?" and somesuch unpolished turds.

(Probably because they don't have one, but hey ho)

 

[Job]

Yes of course..no one wants to trade with the fifth largest and 2nd fastest growing economy in the G7.

The EU is about to lose its most important country and is doing it...publically at least..in a way that reminds everyone why we are leaving.

 

[Raven]

No no no, we should be grateful for being treated like cunts. Silly Job.

In fact, it would be better if we just said sorry and bent over like a good little state.

 

[Raven]

That's not how these discussions go down Gaff. You'll be asked to justify every reasoned argument you make whilst they won't provide a reasoned argument of their own of why they think it's going to go down their way - rather they'll make glib witticisms like "good job we left then eh?" and somesuch unpolished turds.

(Probably because they don't have one, but hey ho)

Actually, if you were capable of forming your own opinion (rather than just regurgitating what you read in the Guardian, or other pro-EU rags) then you wouldn't have so much of a problem with others forming theirs.

Unless you have some sort of specialisation in international law and or economics that you like to keep quiet, what you think is at the end of the day is just an opinion (as is ours)

 

[Scouse]

Lot of childish butthurt there for what is pretty standard politics.

The EU can't afford to have the UK look like a massive success by leaving. That's not even remotely a controversial view. It would be idiotic for the EU to let that happen - so to get butthurt over the blatantly obvious is, frankly, retarded.