News War with Russia

[BloodOmen]

USA reckons Putin's inner circle is starting to show major cracks. He's being confronted on a daily basis by his closest inner allies now over the war.

Only a matter of time before him or them fall out of windows mysteriously I reckon.

 

[Scouse]

A full on conventional conflict with NATO would see Russia destroyed in a matter of days.

Yep, if you discount the fact that they're a nuclear state so there's zero - literally zero - point in ever thinking in those terms again.

A lot of the current situation is predicated by decisions taken by the US at the end of the second world war, as Albert wrote...


Everything about this is just such a massive pile of lose-lose-lose

 

[dysfunction]

Yep, if you discount the fact that they're a nuclear state so there's zero - literally zero - point in ever thinking in those terms again.

A lot of the current situation is predicated by decisions taken by the US at the end of the second world war, as Albert wrote...


Everything about this is just such a massive pile of lose-lose-lose

My thinking is that the rest of the Russian government is a lot more sensible and would not start a nuclear war. I don't think anyone has an appetite for that.

But then nothing is certain so obviously everyone has to be cautious.

I'm counting on when things go from bad to worse for Russia Putin will be removed or assassinated

 

[Scouse]

My thinking is that the rest of the Russian government is a lot more sensible and would not start a nuclear war. I don't think anyone has an appetite for that.

Whilst my hopes and aspirations lie along the same lines as you, hundreds of thousands of years of human history shows we're all as bad as each other.

 

[Raven]

My thinking is that the rest of the Russian government is a lot more sensible and would not start a nuclear war. I don't think anyone has an appetite for that.

But then nothing is certain so obviously everyone has to be cautious.

I'm counting on when things go from bad to worse for Russia Putin will be removed or assassinated

I wouldn't be so sure, Putin is all about the money and power, he literally cannot take criticism, or guidance (see his laughable, embarrassing war), the rest of them are still stuck in the USSR, with some weird idea that Russia is some sort of global power. Someone will put a bullet in the back of his head, but it won't stop the war. The danger is a real imperialist (any other Russian) will take charge and still think it's the 1880s, funnily enough, about the age of their military doctrine, but with more embezzlement.

 

[Gwadien]

My thinking is that the rest of the Russian government is a lot more sensible and would not start a nuclear war. I don't think anyone has an appetite for that.

But then nothing is certain so obviously everyone has to be cautious.

I'm counting on when things go from bad to worse for Russia Putin will be removed or assassinated

I don't think this is likely, there needs to be like an *immediate* revolution from within the military so that Putin can't suddenly let off nukes as a last ditch resort.

I think Gaffer posted it, but I think he will detonate a nuke in the black sea, and see what NATO does in response, then move onto military targets and then civilian targets, and it'd only be a matter of time before we respond.

I think the hope is in Russia's nukes being old and shit & NATO/US having intel on their locations and able to pre-emptively stop them some how.

 

[Raven]

I don't think this is likely, there needs to be like an *immediate* revolution from within the military so that Putin can't suddenly let off nukes as a last ditch resort.

I think Gaffer posted it, but I think he will detonate a nuke in the black sea, and see what NATO does in response, then move onto military targets and then civilian targets, and it'd only be a matter of time before we respond.

I think the hope is in Russia's nukes being old and shit & NATO/US having intel on their locations and able to pre-emptively stop them some how.

Russian nukes aren't old and shit. It's probably the only thing that is ring-fenced from Russian corruption. If Russia is to launch a nuke, it won't be into the black sea. I know, launching a nuke is basically the last straw, but it won't be anywhere near a (despite recent dickory) ally (Turkey) Maaaybe in the Sea of Azov, if they lose Crimea. But anything else is a "right fuck it, we all die" moment.

Edit, realistically, we are looking at Ukraine taking back territory up to the Dnieper (including Kherson) and then stalemate until spring, then it's a whole fresh board.

 

[Raven]

Too late for edit, I reckon the Ukrainians will clear the Russians out up to the Dnieper until winter, hold the line and then pummel Crimea, first the bridge from mainland Russia will be HIMAR'd then they will just ravage it. The Russian Black Sea fleet has already retreated (into the Sea of Azov) it is indefensible.

I should add, that all this delay will increase civil unrest in Russia and resistance in their client states.

 

[Raven]

Also, fuck China, the arse is about to fall out of their entire economy. You can only mortgage so many unbuilt flats until something goes wrong, they are balls deep into nothing. Civil unrest is building.

India...lol, what. who cares.

Iran, about to hit revolution.

(all of) Africa, who fucking cares, they can pin their flags all they like, they need to pick the winning side or fuck off, they really have no horse in the race, despite playing "Neutral" they need to be very careful here. Russian has no international aid program.

Russia has no friends.

 

[Embattle]

SOE style:

Crimea bridge partly reopens after huge explosion - Russia

The explosion wrecked one section of Europe's longest bridge, reportedly killing three people.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[caLLous]

It's not looking clever... the road bridge is now totally unpassable (most of a bit of it is in the water) and the rail bridge is surely damaged beyond repair by the fire if it doesn't outright collapse as well.

 

[Embattle]

The road bridge part wouldn't be too hard to fix as it is more the approach causeway to the main bridge, which is a more valuable target.

 

[Embattle]

View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578638952885784576?

 

[Raven]

View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578638952885784576?

Jesus. That will leave a mark. Perfectly timed for when the fuel train went past. Thank fuck Ukraine are the good guys. Some frighteningly good tactical nous being shown, all over. The Russian military machine, and their idiotic chain of command tactics, just cannot keep up.

 

[caLLous]

 

[Raven]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-juPsPG6FE
(sorry, Sun link)

 

[Raven]

Some of the memes... complete humiliation for Russia.

 

[Raven]

Drone suicide boat then. Lovely stuff.

 

[caLLous]

 

[Ormorof]

Christ that video is a real Hollywood style explosion, guess all that fuel makes it look extra dramatic

 

[Marc]

Haha Raven literally called this yesterday.

 

[Gwadien]

I'm not sure it's a strategic good move though - it'll just make Russia ramp up the defence for the bridge with the navy which really isn't doing much ATM.

Unless Ukraine are conducting unprecedented offensives right now, of course.

 

[Raven]

The navy isn't doing much atm because they retreated from

R-360 Neptune - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Zarjazz]

I'm not sure it's a strategic good move though - it'll just make Russia ramp up the defence for the bridge with the navy which really isn't doing much ATM.

Unless Ukraine are conducting unprecedented offensives right now, of course.

So destroying the only land bridge between Russia and Crimea isn't a good strategic move during a time of war? I think I need a new dictionary because obviously mine is telling lies.

 

[Gwadien]

 

[Gwadien]

So destroying the only land bridge between Russia and Crimea isn't a good strategic move during a time of war? I think I need a new dictionary because obviously mine is telling lies.

Kinda depends what the Russian response is - as I say, if they beef up defences and get it repaired pretty quickly, it would also boost Russian morale.

Your dictionary should probably point out that destroying bridges in combat zones is effective, but not away where it can be quickly repaired.

 

[SilverHood]

If they have to beef up defenses, that's resources and war material not used elsewhere. It ties it them up nicely, far enough away from front line that they're not a threat, close enough to strike if they get complacent.

For a modern country, rebuilding a bridge like that shouldn't pose much of a problem. But a sanctioned one like Russia? Where are they going to get engineers to assess the damage, architects to come up with a rebuilding plan? Skilled construction workers to do the rebuilding? Materiel, tools and equipment? Anyone involved knows they'll have a target on their heads during their time there. Plus, any funds allocated to rebuilding will evaporate into the Russian corruption sponge.

 

[Embattle]

They already made massive claims of a 10 point defense around the bridge before this attack, didn't exactly mean much it seems.

 

[Gwadien]

They already made massive claims of a 10 point defense around the bridge before this attack, didn't exactly mean much it seems.

How do you know it's the first attempt by Ukraine? could have been the 1st, 10th or 100th or 1000th.

 

[Scouse]

It was a good move by Ukraine, a morale coup and effectively cuts off an important supply line (for a short period of time - Russia will have army engineers and bridge repairs for logistics isn't that hard to do).

Definite win though.