Politics So...Europe then?

[Scouse]

Wow @Bodhi - city of London, with it's totally different legal status from the rest of the UK (more like Monaco or the Caymans) does OK shocker.

Meanwhile, the rest of the UK is in measurable contraction according to the only actual dataset we have.

 

[Bodhi]

The City of London that we were told would be the worst affected due to the removal of Financial Passporting? That City of London?

Strange, I thought you'd be quite happy - given the City of London has a bigger bearing on your net worth than any other part of the country.

Some people just want to see the country burn.....

 

[Scouse]

Some people just want to see the country burn.....

Yep. Brexiters

 

[TdC]

The City of London that we were told would be the worst affected due to the removal of Financial Passporting? That City of London?

Strange, I thought you'd be quite happy - given the City of London has a bigger bearing on your net worth than any other part of the country.

Some people just want to see the country burn.....

not been removed yet aiiii. at least until the fucking slow arse Brit parliament activate fucking art. 50. which they won't. so stfu, foo.

 

[caLLous]

Ford warns of plant closures to combat $1bn Brexit blow

Ford is considering closing plants in the UK and across Europe in response to Britain’s vote to leave the EU, as it forecast a $1bn hit to its business over the next two years.

The US motor company, which is the biggest car brand in the UK, will also raise the price of cars sold in Britain before the end of the year. Bob Shanks, chief financial officer, said a rise was needed to claw back money lost through foreign exchange movements.

Sterling has fallen by 11 per cent against the dollar since the vote on June 23, leaving companies that sell into the UK facing lower revenues in the months ahead.

Ford warned of a difficult second half of the year for carmakers, with weaknesses in the US and Chinese markets adding to headwinds caused by Brexit and currency swings. The warning, combined with Ford missing expectations in the second quarter, because of weaker sales in China and the US, sent its shares down more than 9 per cent to $12.52 in late-morning trading in New York.

Mr Shanks said a combination of sterling’s devaluation and an expected hit to the UK car market would cost Ford $200m this year and another $400m to $500m each year over the next two years.

“We’re going to have to look more at cost,” he said. The company would find a way to “claw that back”.

Questions have been raised over prospects for the UK’s car industry in the wake of the Brexit ballot, with analysts questioning whether the plants can win fresh work during a period of uncertainty over trade and the country’s position in the single European market.

Ford’s two remaining UK plants are at Bridgend and Dagenham, making engines that are exported to other EU countries for final assembly. Ford then reimports many of these engines in completed vehicles for sale in the UK.

Analysts have warned that some carmakers would be forced to close plants in the UK if it faces trade barriers with the rest of Europe after Brexit.

Ford has already closed all its remaining UK carmaking plants in the past five years, as well as one in Belgium with the loss of 5,700 jobs.

Asked if the group would shut its remaining UK manufacturing operations, Mr Shanks said: “Everything is going to be on the table across Europe”.

The group is committed to achieving a margin target of between 6 and 8 per cent, he added.

Part of this strategy will mean higher prices in the UK. “There’s no question that there will be price increases,” said Mr Shanks. He indicated the company would move first “as the market leader” and he would expect rises “this year”.

His comments follows a warning by Carlos Tavares, the chief executive of PSA Peugeot Citroën. He said on Wednesday that “everybody is now waiting for somebody to make the first step” in raising prices in the UK to offset foreign exchange movements.

General Motors, which owns Vauxhall in the UK and Opel in Europe, last week said the fallout from the Brexit vote would cost it $400m this year. PSA Peugeot Citroën has said every 1 per cent drop in sterling against the euro cost it €30m.

In the second quarter, Ford reported margins of 5.8 per cent in Europe, up from 2.3 per cent a year earlier, lifted by record European profits on the back of strong sales. But weakness in other key markets resulted in net profit falling 9 per cent to $2bn in the second quarter, below expectations.

Ford warned of “weaker than normal conditions” for the second half and said there was an “elevated economic uncertainty restraining business investment, with downside risk to global growth”.

UK sees biggest fall in consumer confidence for 26 years after Brexit vote

Brexit must happen before we will consider trade deal with UK, US says

Good news all round!

 

[Raven]

Handy excuse.

Shame they were suffering falling sales and losing cash long before Brexit.

 

[DaGaffer]

Handy excuse.

Shame they were suffering falling sales and losing cash long before Brexit.

True, but you'll see a lot more of the same. Vauxhall is making the same noises. Which, tbh is an issue that's been a long time coming (its insane that the Vauxhall brand still exists when its Opel everywhere else in Europe, in even in other RHD markets), but Brexit is the perfect excuse to pull the trigger. I guarantee you'll see similar from Jaguar Land Rover, who'll start to expand their Austrian plant more at the expense of UK investment.

It doesn't really matter whether Brexit will be used as an excuse to hide bad news that was coming anyway, it just means it will happen sooner and corporates have someone (e.g. Brexiters) to blame when people end up on the dole.

 

[Bodhi]

UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets

Plenty of good news out there is you avoid the BBC/Guardian/Indy. In fact it's hardly surprising that confidence has taken a knock with all the misery pouring out of certain outlets.

 

[DaGaffer]

UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets

Plenty of good news out there is you avoid the BBC/Guardian/Indy. In fact it's hardly surprising that confidence has taken a knock with all the misery pouring out of certain outlets.

First question is, why wasn't the UK targeting non-EU markets anyway? Answer, Sterling was over-valued and that explains the sudden growth. FWIW there are economies within the EuroZone that outstripped the UK's export growth, e.g. Ireland at 9%, Germany at 6.4% etc. but by averaging all the EuroZone countries; surprise surprise, the figure is lower than the UK.

 

[Job]

I've got to hand it to May, she is getting stuck in.
In a sort of keep it all the same sort of way, which is perfect really.
No federal superstate for the UK, everything else tickidyboo.

 

[Rubber Bullets]

So finally something really positive to come out of Brexit

Brexit threatens Mrs Brown's Boys movie sequel

 

[Jupitus]

UK exports grow faster than global rivals for first time since 2006 as businesses target non-EU markets

Plenty of good news out there is you avoid the BBC/Guardian/Indy. In fact it's hardly surprising that confidence has taken a knock with all the misery pouring out of certain outlets.

Well, good news if you want lower interest rates...

Biggest drop in UK consumer morale since 1990 puts BoE on track to act

UK business morale plunged after EU vote - survey

Recession ahead in Britain? Factories slow, business confidence tumbles

Wow - this 'good news' is coming thick and fast, eh?

 

[Embattle]

Nevermind eh.

 

[TdC]

ah experts, what do they even know anyway?

 

[Anastasia]

Well, good news if you want lower interest rates...

Biggest drop in UK consumer morale since 1990 puts BoE on track to act

UK business morale plunged after EU vote - survey

Recession ahead in Britain? Factories slow, business confidence tumbles

Wow - this 'good news' is coming thick and fast, eh?



Clear evidence of bias from Reuter's*

*assumes the views expressed by Reuter's do not match your own

 

[Jupitus]

Well, good news if you want lower interest rates...

Biggest drop in UK consumer morale since 1990 puts BoE on track to act

UK business morale plunged after EU vote - survey

Recession ahead in Britain? Factories slow, business confidence tumbles

Wow - this 'good news' is coming thick and fast, eh?



Clear evidence of bias from Reuter's*

*assumes the views expressed by Reuter's do not match your own

Is there a point you are trying to make, @Anastasia ??

 

[Jupitus]

@Bodhi and other 'expert-sceptics' want to show me some of this supposed good news that's so abundant?

Today's update:

Bank of England set to cut rates as survey flags sharpest UK downturn since 2009

Wonderful!

 

[Moriath]

Good things atm

Housing looks as tho its at an all time high. But the drop in proces expected should be good for first time buyers

As is the drop in interest rates whichwill be good for anyone with a variable mortgage

And pound is weak so exports should be up.

 

[Jupitus]

Good things atm

Housing looks as tho its at an all time high. But the drop in proces expected should be good for first time buyers

.... but bad for existing homeowners losing out on their net worth... not the best way to help people onto the housing ladder I would say...

As is the drop in interest rates whichwill be good for anyone with a variable mortgage

... yes, but rates can only fall a tiny amount further whilst house prices can fall freely, so how long before we see more negative equity for people?

And pound is weak so exports should be up.

True.... as is the opposite which means all the goods we import will cost more, a fact which is already leading to indications of possible inflationary pressure.

What do we do to stifle inflation? We put up interest rates. Oh... hold on....

 

[Job]

Anything you do with an economy is the same as walking over to a huge traffic jam and pointing out an empty shortcut to one driver.

 

[Anastasia]

Is there a point you are trying to make, @Anastasia ??

Just fulfilling your prophecy from a previous post about the reliability of Reuters being called into question. I assumed you made it ironically, my point was that at this point the debate is a bit of a fiasco, any quoted expert source which expresses an opinion is discounted by those whose opinion is at odds.

I voted to remain, mainly because I objected so much to the idiocy and unpleasantness of the leave campaign. It was the lesser of two evils, mind. Part of me felt quite strongly that Europe right now is a busted flush, we're miles away from the levels of international co-operation required for it to really succeed, and if it does disintegrate you don't want to be propping it up financially for decades prior to its demise (hello, Germany?), but those feelings were nothing compared to loathing I felt towards Nigel Farage, Boris Selfinterest and the bigoted misinformation brigade who trumpeted the leave campaign message.

 

[Gwadien]

Anything that I don't understand and refuse to understand but pretend to understand can be explained by a metaphor.

 

[Jupitus]

Just fulfilling your prophecy from a previous post about the reliability of Reuters being called into question. I assumed you made it ironically, my point was that at this point the debate is a bit of a fiasco, any quoted expert source which expresses an opinion is discounted by those whose opinion is at odds.

I voted to remain, mainly because I objected so much to the idiocy and unpleasantness of the leave campaign. It was the lesser of two evils, mind. Part of me felt quite strongly that Europe right now is a busted flush, we're miles away from the levels of international co-operation required for it to really succeed, and if it does disintegrate you don't want to be propping it up financially for decades prior to its demise (hello, Germany?), but those feelings were nothing compared to loathing I felt towards Nigel Farage, Boris Selfinterest and the bigoted misinformation brigade who trumpeted the leave campaign message.

Thanks for coming back to provide the explanation. In fact, I felt pretty much the same with regards to the general status of the EU but I also felt quite strongly that the timing of this was terrible given how we were taking the first early steps of an economic recovery. If the vote had been 3 years later I might have actually agreed with the exit voters.

What has pissed me off, though, is all the lies from both sides throughout the campaign, but one of the worst themes in my view has been this whole 'people who assess that an exit will have a bad impact on the economy are just doom-mongering and experts don't know what they are on about'. That's purely why I am now asking those who poo-poo'd them before to face up to the evidence which now appears to indicate that the experts actually do know what they are on about.

Finally, I work for Thomson Reuters so I saw first hand the extent to which they went to making sure they stay independent and unbiased with a 100% crackdown to not show any preference for or against brexit in the run up to the vote (I'm not a journo, but the edict was company-wide). I won't fanboi the whole thing, but they do make strong statements about such matters here:

The Trust Principles

 

[Job]

Dont pretend to understand, no one does, they are just herding sheep.
lowering this, raising that, inspiring confidence, greed and panic...the old cliche but that's all it is, and in between endless football pundit experts giving their opinions, much like those palm readers by the seaside, who if they actually had those powers would rule the world, not selling it for 40 quid.

 

[Anastasia]

Speak for yourself, baaa.

Oh, and 40 quid? They saw you coming a mile off!

 

[Anastasia]

I think my over-riding feeling throughout this was "why am I being asked to make this decision?" What actual use are politicians if they can't make the important decisions on our behalf? Isn't that their role in society? I know we get the media and politicians we deserve, yadda yadda, but seriously, they want Joe Public to make this generation-defining decision on the basis of two conflicting packs of fucking lies? If these are the politicians we deserve we must suck the big one as a nation.

 

[Gwadien]

Have you seen that our unelected body is threatening to delay us from leaving from the grasps of an evil unelected body?

 

[Moriath]

.... but bad for existing homeowners losing out on their net worth... not the best way to help people onto the housing ladder I would say...



... yes, but rates can only fall a tiny amount further whilst house prices can fall freely, so how long before we see more negative equity for people?



True.... as is the opposite which means all the goods we import will cost more, a fact which is already leading to indications of possible inflationary pressure.

What do we do to stifle inflation? We put up interest rates. Oh... hold on....

Just saying there are always winners. Doesnt matter if the economy goes up or down. Its always good for some one.

Interest rates could go negative fyi.

Every cloud and all that.

 

[Job]

The world economy is run by gamblers, Paul the Octopus..god bless his soul..could have predicted the uncertainty of the UK leaving the EU would damage investor confidence, and that is the fundamental problem, democracy is being held to ransom by a casino.
The remainers view is don't scare them or they'll run off, exiters are like..fuck em, they'll be back to the trough when they get hungry.
The UK had one of the best performing economies in the EU, hardly an endorsement, but a silly thing like not being in the local co-op isn't going to stop them making money out of our assets.

 

[Raven]

I think my over-riding feeling throughout this was "why am I being asked to make this decision?" What actual use are politicians if they can't make the important decisions on our behalf? Isn't that their role in society? I know we get the media and politicians we deserve, yadda yadda, but seriously, they want Joe Public to make this generation-defining decision on the basis of two conflicting packs of fucking lies? If these are the politicians we deserve we must suck the big one as a nation.

While I sort of agree that our politicians should be sorting this shit out, my head counters that with, they will do whatever the fuck they like so long as it pads their pockets.

Joe public should make the decision when it is this important, right or wrong, nobody voted to give away control of our country, it has always been assumed.

The EU is doomed, we are now out early.

Good times.

Yes, we are fucked now, for the next year or so.

Yes, the EU are even more fucked in the next 5 years when the gravy train smacks into a bridge. Spain and Italy already out for the count, France and Germany are now staring down the barrel of propping up 10 or so craphole economies. Couple that with Trump winning in America. Jebus we will be winning, hard.

The sooner the tired, angry remainers got on with it the better. I voted remain but this pathetic angst and self loathing that has poured forth has made me regret my vote. You make do with what you have, crying like a child will do no good to anyone, grow up.

We are British and despite how unfashionable that may be with the need need need generation of pathetic arseholes, we will see this through and we will come out stronger.

If you don't like it then there is still plenty of time to fuck off to Europe, Visa free. But please, we are tired of your useless whining, just do it.