Politics POLL: Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

[caLLous]

Millions of apples left to rot in UK as Brexit uncertainty worsens EU fruit picker shortage

 

[Gwadien]

Can't wait for the swarms of Chinese that will come picking though!

 

[caLLous]

It's a thread even though he hasn't marked it as such...

Huge problems storing up for the govt this week:

Plan is to bring MV back tomorrow. Think almost certain not to happen as Speaker will rule out of order as (i) same issue twice (ii) contradicts Letwin amendment which says Brexit related legislation must be agreed first.

There is a common misconception that the govt pulled the vote on Saturday. They did not. They just didn't bring the motion as amended to a division. It went through on the nod. The House decided something. I.e. Letwin, that there is no deal until WAB passes. That is big.

That is why common refrain that Saturday was a "waste of time" or that "they didn't decide anything" is a nonsense.

As a result of that decision, the Speaker has even more justification to refuse the deal coming back. The previous MVs were defeated and the House passed nothing. Yesterday the Commons (when govt walked away from motion) effectively unanimously agreed and 'resolved' the matter.

So that means only route to get the deal through is via the WAB. That is due to take place Tuesday. And that is absolutely fraught with danger. The parliamentary manoeuvres we saw on Saturday will look like a walk in the park compared to the WAB.

It will be amended in every direction. This is why govt wanted to have MV first (same as May's). Establish you have a majority on the deal and hope momentum of that means that coalition of MPs holds throughout the WAB process.

There will be lots of attention paid to the sexiest amendment: a second referendum. But that (prob) still doesn't have enough support. The explosive one is a customs union which probably does and crucially has support from Lab MPs who might back deal but would prefer a CU.

Expect Labour and others to get behind that amendment because it is in effect a massive wrecking amendment to the government's deal. They know Johnson cannot accept it, cannot negotiate it and it would tear the Tory Party apart.

If that happens (and it passes) I don't see any way out for Johnson, other than accepting the reality of the extension and using it to insist on an election where he campaigns for his deal. Tory Party as the Brexit (with a deal) Party.

Basically the govt gave up its best chance of accessing the majority that might well now exist for the deal by not pushing the division on Saturday. Virtually everyone I speak to thinks it was a mistake that they didn't.

DUP votes now in play also means everything (in terms of amendments) even more fluid. As one MP put it to me: "If it was a matrix of options before it’s now galaxy of variables post Letwin."

Other problems abound. There's no guarantee, for example, that the govt even has the votes for a programme motion which would set out when, how and for how long the WAB would be debated. IE they might not even be able to bring the WAB up, or at least, to do so without condition.

Entirely possible MPs try and push programme motion for WAB *beyond* this week, so we can't Brexit by October 31st and def enter extension. So keep eye out for programme motion vote, which is usually a formality but actually a big moment this week. Possibly the biggest.

AND there's the Queen's Speech. Remember that? We were supposed to conclude the votes on it on Monday and Tuesday. But that is all up in the air tomorrow. A vote seems to be planned on Tuesday. Entirely possible govt could lose. First time on a QS since Stanley Baldwin in 1924.

Normally a govt/PM would resign if that happened. It was traditionally a confidence vote. Thanks to the FTPA it no longer is.

But big pressure on Corbyn to table a vote of no confidence if govt does lose. If not then, when?

Seems to me this week (alongside EU's response on duration of extension) will determine if we have an election this year. If it's extension to January and becomes clear govt can't get deal through, election on 5th/12 December most likely.

So erm yeah, hold onto your hats (if you haven’t lost them already). big week.

Just to clarify something: I essentially think we’ve given far too much emphasis to a) the MV and now b) second reading of WAB. Both of those votes could have majorities. But they’re essentially theoretical majorities. They could fall apart when it comes to the amendments on WAB.

Because the coalitions for those majorities, potentially stretching all the way from Bill Cash to potentially someone like Gloria de Piero, are highly unstable.

 

[Job]

Millions of apples left to rot in UK as Brexit uncertainty worsens EU fruit picker shortage

They come out with this bolloks every year since we voted to leave.
Which hilariously is now 3 years.
Seasonal workers have increased every year, theyve had bumper crops because of the long summers and are just trying to blame incompetence on brexit

 

[Job]

It's a thread even though he hasn't marked it as such...

And now we're in the world of acronyms, that reads like a fucking bullshit bingo joke.

I presume MV is members vote?

I mean is it that difficult to write out.
TRAABOW

 

[Scouse]

They come out with this bolloks every year since we voted to leave.
Which hilariously is now 3 years.
Seasonal workers have increased every year, theyve had bumper crops because of the long summers and are just trying to blame incompetence on brexit

You can't bullshit that tonnage of rotten apples you fucking idiot.

How are you supposed to pick fruit if you've nobody to pick fruit? << Answer this please

 

[Job]

They have got people..seasonal migrants have increased.
Its logistical and preperation incompetence ,not lack of workers.

 

[Scouse]

And now we're in the world of acronyms, that reads like a fucking bullshit bingo joke.

It's only hard to read and understand if you haven't got a clue what's going on.

I'm barely following Brexit (because, other than freedom of movement and the environment I largely can't motivate myself on it) - but I can read and understand that fine.

For someone like you, who feels incredibly strongly about it - using language like traitors and treason - you'd think you must understand the issues intimately - making this one of the easiest reads ever.

This looks like a clear admission that you haven't a clue what they're talking about.

 

[Scouse]

They have got people..seasonal migrants have increased.
Its logistical and preperation incompetence ,not lack of workers.

Evidence please - the farmers are saying directly that they can't get the people because the pound is for shit and England is unwelcoming.

If you disagree with the farmers either produce the evidence for your assertion or admit you are wronh.

 

[Job]

Its pretty basic once youve decoded the acronyms people throw in to give the impression they are so on the cutting edge.
I did have to stop to think what MV was...its hardly well used and seems a bit unnecessary in this context.

 

[Job]

Evidence please - the farmers are saying directly that they can't get the people because the pound is for shit and England is unwelcoming.

If you disagree with the farmers either produce the evidence for your assertion or admit you are wronh.

So this migrant shortage is only
affecting apples eh?
Apple growers fuck up and its brexit...lettuce growers got a warehouse full of migrants as a backup?

 

[Scouse]

So this migrant shortage is only
affecting apples eh?
Apple growers fuck up and its brexit...lettuce growers got a warehouse full of migrants as a backup?

The article is limited to apple growers who have said they have thousands of tonnes of waste because they can't get work done. It may well be that lettuce growers, turnip growers, brocolli growers etc have the same problem - but right now apple growers are the ones shouting that they can't get the workers.

You have stated that "seasonal migrants have increased" and that it's "logistical and preperation incompetence ,not lack of workers".

So back your statement up with fucking evidence or admit you are talking shite.

 

[DaGaffer]

They have got people..seasonal migrants have increased.
Its logistical and preperation incompetence ,not lack of workers.

seasonal migrants have NOT increased. ONS is now confirming that while EU inward migration remains net positive, the trend is down and continuing to drop and is already negative for the so-called “EU 8” (the Eastern Europeans). This group is where seasonal workers come from and is not offset by non-EU migrants (who are increasing, primarily on student visas).


I don’t know why you’re arguing about this @Job; isn’t this the outcome you wanted? “Cheap labour” from the east fucks off back home leaving all the work for ye olde stout English yeomen?

 

[Scouse]

I don’t know why you’re arguing about this @Job; isn’t this the outcome you wanted? “Cheap labour” from the east fucks off back home leaving all the work for ye olde stout English yeomen?

It's worse than that:
1) He's getting what he wanted - cheap labour has fucked off
2) The cheap labour has fucked off so we're not getting stuff done (fruit picked)
3) He's blaming the farmers for "incompetence" - because the cheap labour has fucked off
4) He has categorically stated that there are MORE migrants, not less, compounding the previously-perfectly-competent farmer's incompetence

(and 5) about a billion other conflicting nonsensical things.)

Come on @Job. Prove what you say is true - that the ONS figures @DaGaffer has provided are wrong and that farmers, who for decades have managed to pick all their apples, have magically become incompetent in the face of rising cheap fruit-picking labour.

Evidence to back up your assertions please @Job. Or admission you're an idiot shit-talking twat.

 

[caLLous]

 

[Scouse]

Terrorist attacks UK government plans!!

 

[caLLous]

Northern Ireland firms will have to complete export forms when sending goods to Britain, Stephen Barclay admits

It's because of this sort of shit that they were trying to race the deal through without giving anyone the chance to study it. Anybody who moans about MPs trying to delay the process can get to fuck tbh.

 

[Ormorof]

Its almost as of this sort of thing should have been thought about a bit before pulling trigger on exit...

Either way dont see NI staying in union long, no matter which way it goes they will be half in half out it seems

 

[Wij]

Peter Oborne:

British journalists have become part of Johnson’s fake news machine

 

[Gwadien]

Its almost as of this sort of thing should have been thought about a bit before pulling trigger on exit...

Either way dont see NI staying in union long, no matter which way it goes they will be half in half out it seems

I've always said this.

It was the duty of the Brexit campaign to go to the EU and see what was realistically achievable, not saying lots of things that the EU would never agree with and lying about all sorts of shit.

Sure, the Remain campaign did the same, but the difference is that you could see what 'Remain' were trying to achieve, because it was already happening, whereas the Brexit campaign said that pigs could fly if we Leave, turns out even when they have a prominent Brexit campaign figure as Prime Minister it's still not fucking achievable.

Job calls the Remainers traitors, I call the Brexiteers in Government traitors; they're the ones who sank Cameron's ship so that they could gain more political power at the massive expense of the country as a whole.

Every time I see Gove, I want to use him as a dart board.

 

[Scouse]

I call the Brexiteers in Government traitors

You're still using the term traitor to describe someone who thinks differently from you. :\

 

[Gwadien]

You're still using the term traitor to describe someone who thinks differently from you. :\

Difference is that Parliament is putting the country first, there wasn't this effort to stop a no deal under Theresa May, I think they're just fully aware of the sinister intent that Boris has with his cronies, which has nothing to do with the interests of the country, it's down to profiteering.

Maybe traitor is too strong of a term, but I was just applying the limited language that Job has access to.

 

[Scouse]

Traitor is definitely too strong a term. An argument could be made that parliament is made up largely of remainers and they're putting their wants and needs first.

But anyway - I think Johnson'll get his way. If it doesn't go through, it'll probably go to a General Election and he'll trounce Corbyn. He's simply a much better orator - and that matters:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z12gpOaoswE

 

[Gwadien]

Traitor is definitely too strong a term. An argument could be made that parliament is made up largely of remainers and they're putting their wants and needs first.

But in the non-angry Brexiteer world, that isn't the truth.

As I said before, Parliament wasn't worried about May pushing through a No Deal, because they knew that it would have been her last resort.

Whereas with Boris, a no deal is absolutely the priority, because his mates want to make some dosh, parliament = in the interests of the country boris = in the interests of his wallet and his mates.

That's the reality, not Remainer interpretation.

 

[Yoni]

First bit done.... on to the next

 

[Yoni]

annnnd the timing failed at the second....

 

[Scouse]

parliament = in the interests of the country boris = in the interests of his wallet and his mates.

That's the reality, not Remainer interpretation.

Maybe.

I don't think no deal was a priority for Boris at all - I think he took the natural bargaining position that no deal had to be on the table or serious negotiation is impossible. I happen to agree with that - remainer May's baseline position was ludicrous.

Anyway - the deal we've got right now is the best we're going to get. The only reason to delay is in the hope we manage to remain. I can't see what's in it for the EU to go back to the table, I can't see what else we can do by going back to the table. We either cancel brexit (antidemocratic) pass it (meh) referendum (is democratic but makes enemies of half the population who'll never trust government again) General Election (likely at this rate, Boris wins - Brexit happens).

Labour can't win a GE right now. Best they can hope for is Brexit happens, Boris makes a hash of the rest of his term (he'll get a massive boost from getting Brexit through) and they can reframe things for the next GE.

 

[Gwadien]

I'd rather have a referendum, it's a dirty word for sure, but it's better than essentially having a General Election which is going to act as a referendum, then we have to deal with policies that no-one was aware of because everyone was so focused on voting due to their views on Brexit.

 

[Scouse]

I'd rather have a referendum

referendum (is democratic but makes enemies of half the population who'll never trust government again)

You just want to remain, and don't give a fuck about brexiters.

I get it. But that's the reality IMO.

 

[Gwadien]

You just want to remain, and don't give a fuck about brexiters.

I get it. But that's the reality IMO.

The Brexiteers are going to vote Tory, and the Remainers will vote else where (unless they're rich remainers ofc).

So what's the difference?