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If he's out for the duration then I think they can still get Dawson out to South Africa; so long as its before the tournament proper starts I think that's allowed. In which case it will probably Carragher as first choice CB.
Yes your right - "Should a player be ruled out of the tournament before it begins, a replacement can be drafted into the 23-man squad as happened in 2002 when England midfielder Danny Murphy broke a bone in his foot and Trevor Sinclair was called up." (from beeb article).