News War with Russia

Raven

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The EU aren't going to turn the Nordstream 1 tap off, they would all be cold.

Morally they should, but they won't.

All they have done is "paused" Nordstream 2, they won't cancel it and dismantle it, because Germany are balls deep in fossil fuel.
 
Scouse

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So. Just to be clear.

We're all OUTRAGED at Russia and fully stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

But we won't put a jumper on for them. That's just a step too far. Right?
 
Raven

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"we" ?

We don't get much gas or anything (except for the money swilling around London) from Russia.
 
Raven

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Actually, it's quite sensible. It can't be just left abandoned, which is what would happen after a full invasion, unless the aggressor secures it.
 
Scouse

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Raven

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Less than 5%

www.theguardian.com

How will Russia’s assault on Ukraine affect UK gas supplies?

Kremlin grip on supplying heat and electricity to Europe is all too apparent as prices rise again
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Edit, sure, it will drive prices up, but we don't need to cut it off. Meanwhile, in the EU, they are literally still sending money Russia's way...business as usual.
 
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caLLous

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I read that the problem the UK has isn't a direct supply from Russia, rather that it gets like a third of its gas from Norway and, if there's more demand than they can fulfil, Norway has an agreement with the EU where it's legally obliged to prioritise them over anyone else.
 
Wij

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We could get LNG from anywhere but haven't put the infrastructure in place to deal with it I'd imagine. We should have made the EU entirely independent from Russia gas and oil in 2014.
 
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caLLous

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It is happening, it just hasn't happened enough yet to properly tell Russia to go and play in the traffic.
 
Raven

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It's not happening at all, up until a few days ago Nordsteam 2 was a thing...and technically still is after we get all this awkwardness out the way.
 
Raven

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If the EU/Germany meant it, they would be moving in the diggers to remove it all.

As it stands, it's just on pause, once Russia consolidates it will be business as usual. Not that we have anything to crow about, it won't make any difference to dirty Russian money in London, the Tories will make sure of that.
 
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caLLous

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fortune.com

Many are worried about an energy crisis after Nord Stream 2 was shut down. But Europe says Russian troops arrived too late.

Europe made its own bet on other gas sources.
fortune.com fortune.com

But others argue that Russia’s geopolitical gas wager came a little too late. While Gazprom, a Russian energy company, was busy building the pipeline that would eventually send Russian gas through Ukraine to Germany, the EU, fearing that the completed pipeline would give Russia an outsize level of influence in the bloc, has been steadily reducing its dependency on Russian gas.

Instead, the EU has been building up liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities on Western Europe’s coast over the past few years and increasing imports of LNG from Qatar and the U.S. to wean itself off Russian energy.

And so far, it seems to have worked. The plants transforming imported LNG to gas form have gone from 50% usage on average over the past five years to nearly 100% today, according to energy research firm Rystad Energy, while an analysis by European energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie also found that between January and February of this year, there was more imported LNG from the Middle East and the U.S. in Europe’s gas system than Russian gas.

A record usage of LNG plants, alongside a relatively mild winter, has led Europe to have a more dominant energy position against Russia than it would have otherwise.

“We are able to make it through this winter without Russian gas but with supply from others,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Feb. 19.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, agrees.

“In this sense, the EU has become less vulnerable—and continues to do so week by week,” he said in an analyst note.
Click to expand...
 
Raven

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Less than 5% (of our total gas)

If you haven't turned off your gas central heating by now then...edit, I am sure that cutting off 5% of your supply will really hurt you.
 
Scouse

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Still us.

Money will go from us to them (directly or indirectly). Gas will flow the other way.
 
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caLLous

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Not a good look but he says in a subsequent tweet that he completely understands why it's happening and how it happens.


View: https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1496895329618251783


Gas is the obvious thing that Russia sells but not buying it for a period will achieve fuck all in comparison to the actual sanctions freezing assets and shutting Russia out of EU/UK/US/etc markets etc will. As I said, the EU isn't yet at a point where it can entirely not need Russian gas but it'll happen.

Nord Stream 2 will undoubtedly still go ahead for several reasons. Firstly, when Russia aren't being dickheads, it is and always will be the most plentiful and therefore cheapest gas around and secondly it avoids Ukraine (there was a situation in 2015 where Russia had a dispute with Ukraine - imagine that - and cut off their gas supply but most of the gas the west bought from Russia came through the same pipe which was... awkward). Just because the pipeline exists doesn't mean it'll be in constant use - it's sitting there full of gas as we speak. Having options and fallbacks is good.
 
Raven

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In short, Cut it off, now. And only turn it back on again when Putin is back in his box, or dead, whichever.
 
Raven

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Scouse said:
Still us.

Money will go from us to them (directly or indirectly). Gas will flow the other way.
Click to expand...

What? Since when do we (or the EU) supply Russia with gas? It only goes one way, turn off the tap, simple.

It's end of Feb of a mild winter, I am sure people will manage without heating for a bit...mine went off a couple of weeks ago.
 
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