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Job

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So Ive just read if you lined up all the viruss' on Earth end to end.
They would easily stretch across the entire galaxy.

And that up to 8% of our genome could be ancient virus dna/rna.
 

BloodOmen

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Bodhi

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Isn't it because it's a flu strain that it's so concerning?

It's highly contagious, that's the primary concern, compared to the likes of Ebola which was much harder to catch but had a much higher death rate.

The second concern is that it's a flu virus, so it could continue and mutate for a very long time to come, making it much more difficult to vaccinate.

@Job have you checked for the responses from the likes of WHO? They're probably the best organisation to take seriously and not take much notice of the hysteria.

The only thing that concerns me is that we appear (as a country) to be trying out new things that other countries are doing the opposite of.

It's not the same family of viruses as flu, it's the same as the common cold, SARS and MERS.
 

Job

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Since Ive been following the weather more closely as Ive got back into mtbing, its quite clear they havent got a tiny fucking clue what they are doing...at best 2 days prediction, but with a 50% chance that will change drastically in 24hrs.

I wanted to visit Rivington, all week its been rain all day then 3 days to go....sunny all day...next day, back to rain, last night... rain.
Today...sunny all afternoon.

If its absolutely going to be a scorcher week they het that right mostly, or a pissing down week.

But any daily changes between the two you might as well ask your pet hamster.
 

Job

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Trying to remember a German guys name and did a search to jog memory.

Its incredible to see how much German names have changed, all the classics have disappeared.

The most popular German names for boys in 2016 were: in order of popularity

Ben
Paul
Jonas
Elias
Leon
Finn/Fynn
Noah
Luis/Louis
Luke/Lucas
Felix
Luca/Luka
Maximilian
Henry/Henri
Max
Oskar/Oscar
Emil
Liam
Jacob
Moritz
Anton

It reads like an upper middle class English private school assembly roll.

Or are we copying them?
 

DaGaffer

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Can you not play spot the difference and see what may cause the difference in statistics? *Is gonna wish she had not asked :cautious:*

Yes but why? Why are old people in Italy catching the virus much more than old people in SK? And why is it killing more of them once caught? Its a young person's disease in SK and an old person's disease in Italy (there's enough volume in the testing to make that clear). Both countries have similar population sizes (about 50m) and not that dissimilar age distributions:
upload_2020-3-15_10-5-7.png

There's obviously that quite big difference in the 65+ group, but is it enough to count for the difference in deaths? Doesn't seem so as the death rates for higher ages are nearly double in Italy.
 

Job

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Well SK closed its borders straight away and locked down the country.
 

Yoni

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Yes but why? Why are old people in Italy catching the virus much more than old people in SK? And why is it killing more of them once caught? Its a young person's disease in SK and an old person's disease in Italy (there's enough volume in the testing to make that clear). Both countries have similar population sizes (about 50m) and not that dissimilar age distributions:
View attachment 41214

There's obviously that quite big difference in the 65+ group, but is it enough to count for the difference in deaths? Doesn't seem so as the death rates for higher ages are nearly double in Italy.
I noticed a difference in numbers tested - this is a difference that needs more analysis. Other differences will be analysed to death but could be socio economic or to do with tradition ie old peoples homes vs community with families?
 

Gwadien

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89769899_1476347125875865_4327456301232685056_n.jpg
 

caLLous

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Must admit I couldn't give two shits about what a bunch of Maths PhD students have to say about controlling pandemics.
Yeah what possible clue could mathematicians have about modelling... oh wait, actually quite a good clue. You can mock them all you like but it's not like they're laymen who couldn't possibly have something to offer.
 

Scouse

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Yeah what possible clue could mathematicians have about modelling... oh wait, actually quite a good clue. You can mock them all you like but it's not like they're laymen who couldn't possibly have something to offer.
Actually. Immunologists and viral experts still have nore to offer than mathematicians. I'd listen to them first - because when it comes to viral spread they're the experts.
 

caLLous

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Of course but the Tories (and *these* Tories in particular) aren't exactly famous for transparency and doing things for the good of the people so when they unexpectedly choose to go a different way to literally every other country dealing with the pandemic, it's bound to raise eyebrows. Most notably, the eyebrows of the WHO. If the UK goes with herd immunity and it doesn't work, they're double fucked with a cherry on top.

The virologist who tweeted that she didn't recognise any of the names says in other tweets how important the work she does with mathematicians and modellers is. I just think it's a bit shit to flippantly say "lol maths students. Ignore".
 

Bodhi

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Yeah what possible clue could mathematicians have about modelling... oh wait, actually quite a good clue. You can mock them all you like but it's not like they're laymen who couldn't possibly have something to offer.

However why should they be listened to over the CMO or CSA?

Hint : they shouldn't.
 

DaGaffer

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I noticed a difference in numbers tested - this is a difference that needs more analysis. Other differences will be analysed to death but could be socio economic or to do with tradition ie old peoples homes vs community with families?

Yeah, the numbers tested is different, but that doesn't really explain the death rate. For example in the 70-79 range there have been more Italians tested than South Koreans (about 18K v 12K looking at that graph) and the death rate is twice as high. It has to be either some social reason or Italian healthcare is shite compared to South Korean. What its not, is a function of more Italians being infected than South Koreans, and renders arguments about closing borders a bit dubious.
 

caLLous

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However why should they be listened to over the CMO or CSA?

Hint : they shouldn't.
When their approach is so different to literally everybody else's, of course they should expect scrutiny.
 

BloodOmen

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I'll say one thing, the Corona Virus is going to show the USA healthcare for what it is - a joke.
 

Gwadien

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I'll say one thing, the Corona Virus is going to show the USA healthcare for what it is - a joke.

Thing is, when push comes to shove, the Government has a massive industry of private health to start bullying, whereas we're more reliant on what we already had, private in the UK wouldn't make a great deal of difference.

Like why isn't our Government saying 'wtf you fucks, get this finished -now-.'

New £335m hospital will not open until 2022
 

DaGaffer

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I'll say one thing, the Corona Virus is going to show the USA healthcare for what it is - a joke.

I'll take that bet. You'll find it next to impossible to develop a coherent picture of what's happening in the US, and that's by design. When all this shakes out there'll be a ton of ambiguity in the US figures precisely because the testing rates are so low; and that's all the Republicans need to spin any story they like. The last few years have shown us that truth is irrelevant, confirmation bias is the only thing that matters.
 

Moriath

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I'll take that bet. You'll find it next to impossible to develop a coherent picture of what's happening in the US, and that's by design. When all this shakes out there'll be a ton of ambiguity in the US figures precisely because the testing rates are so low; and that's all the Republicans need to spin any story they like. The last few years have shown us that truth is irrelevant, confirmation bias is the only thing that matters.
The usa authorities need to pass laws to take over all medical facilities and prove free health care for those caught up in the spread. However cause no one gives a shit about poor without health care or crap insurance you will never get proper fatality rates and as you say the message will be spun by the repubs
 

BloodOmen

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I'll take that bet. You'll find it next to impossible to develop a coherent picture of what's happening in the US, and that's by design. When all this shakes out there'll be a ton of ambiguity in the US figures precisely because the testing rates are so low; and that's all the Republicans need to spin any story they like. The last few years have shown us that truth is irrelevant, confirmation bias is the only thing that matters.

Given the price of healthcare there, you honestly think its going to come out smelling of roses when hospitals are flooded etc? it's going to expose the healthcare for what it is - if you have money you live, if you don't you're fucked.
 

BloodOmen

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Thing is, when push comes to shove, the Government has a massive industry of private health to start bullying, whereas we're more reliant on what we already had, private in the UK wouldn't make a great deal of difference.

Like why isn't our Government saying 'wtf you fucks, get this finished -now-.'

New £335m hospital will not open until 2022

Oh I wasn't making a comparison, I was simply saying it'll expose the USA's healthcare for the utter sham it is.
 

Bodhi

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When their approach is so different to literally everybody else's, of course they should expect scrutiny.

Apart from France.


View: https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1239206217395982337?s=19


And Germany. We're not locking anything down just yet, as its probably a bit too early looking at the UK numbers (just over 1000 mild cases, 20 critical, 21 dead).

Now isn't really the time to be playing politics, unless you are failing in your ability to be a human being.
 

caLLous

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Apart from France.


France absolutely is locking down and has been since about 18 hours before that tweet was tweeted. The schools were shutting since before the weekend and all "non-essential" businesses are shut since midnight last night, until further notice.
 

Yoni

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the UK were tracking at a similar rate as Sweden with similar measures (schools kept open, not completely shutting down etc). I have seen that the deaths have started to rise in the uk so wondering when this will start in Sweden :unsure:
 

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