Politics The next US President will be...

[ileks]

Obama is 1.33 and seemingly rising on Betfair now.

 

[opticle]

What does 1.33 mean versus 1.25 ?

 

[Cerb]

If I'm reading them correctly it means that if you Bet $1 that Obama will win, you get $1.33 back (plus the $1 you bet originally).

So the odds going up means they are less sure he will win.

 

[Wazzerphuk]

If I'm reading them correctly it means that if you Bet $1 that Obama will win, you get $1.33 back (plus the $1 you bet originally).

Including. Not plus.

 

[Job]

No 3rd party anymore in US politics?

 

[Chilly]

No 3rd party anymore in US politics?

Hasnt been a credible third party for quite some time.

 

[Mey]

1/6 on betfred.

 

[Chilly]

Obama just came in to 1.14 = 1/1.14=87% chance to win.

 

[Chilly]

Wallop. £440 if Obama wins, £0 liability on Romney. Bed time

 

[Everz]

Wheres that on Chilly?

 

[Chilly]

Betfair, of course!
http://sports.betfair.com/politics/market?id=1.21311313

 

[Chilly]

The market there is giving Obama a 93% chance at this point. That's pretty ballsy given only a few percent of votes have been counted.

 

[Chilly]

Should also point out that there's just shy of £30m traded there so it's not just a random bookie spouting shit. That's serious fucking money backing up informed, scientifically derived opinion.

 

[Aoami]

pretty ballsy? its fucking madness!

 

[ileks]

The market there is giving Obama a 93% chance at this point. That's pretty ballsy given only a few percent of votes have been counted.

The odds suddenly plummeted for Romney about 5 mins ago. Something must have happened in Florida/Ohio.

edit- according to the BBC site Ohio is leaning Democrat.

 

[Everz]

Jesus!

£100 on Obama.. shit returns but im in it for the buzz

 

[ileks]

Good luck I've been constantly checking Betfair because of Chilly's bet

 

[ECA]

It's not ballsy at all, 538 has had obama > 90% for almost a week.
Given that he fully called last election and only miscalled 1 senate race...

And obama is ahead on 2008 % wise, in most ohio counties that are reporting.

Pretty much gg.

 

[Chilly]

Hehe, glad I could provide some entertainment. All traded out now, though, as I said, at 1.11 for a tidy profit.

 

[Chilly]

It's not ballsy at all, 538 has had obama > 90% for almost a week.
Given that he fully called last election and only miscalled 1 senate race...

That's one of my main information sources for making this bet. However, weird stuff happens in real life. In the cold light of day, 5% or less of votes have been counted and any projection made from those is going to be liable to error. I'm not saying 538 is wrong, just stating the risk and my opinion of it.

 

[Chilly]

My professional trading BF account is hopefully going to make a massive loss on Obama, too. We arbed between intrade and betfair, with the win at intrade and the loss at betfair. All fun and games

 

[Aoami]

nytimes in backing obama shocker

 

[Chilly]

Florida is now highly likely Obama. Looks like the election is effectively over.

 

[ECA]

Florida is now highly likely Obama. Looks like the election is effectively over.

Even if Obama doesn't win Florida, he's polling more strongly in ohio than florida which means he's a lock for ohio and romney has no realistic path to victory without it.
ggs yo, time for bed.

 

[Chilly]

Yeah, moff to bed too. Night all. Happy Obama day (and happy winning bet day).

 

[BloodOmen]

Romney got fucking destroyed - 275 to 203

just as well, the white house doesnt need a first, second and third lady.

 

[dysfunction]

Excellent glad to see the majority of Americans making the right choice!

 

[Job]

Right choice but boring

 

[old.user4556]

That's one of my main information sources for making this bet.

Bullshit, I made a video of a phonecall you got getting your inside information:


View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cn8FPOt2uZM

 

[Ctuchik]

Right choice but boring

Romney as president might have been exiting, but i'm not sure the world needs THAT kind of excitement right now....

He has fuck all clue about foreign politics and the chances that he would start something by pure accident were big enough to be fucking scary.

 

[Raven]

I wouldn't find a country run by screaming mad Christians the least bit exciting