The experiment game iii

[Cerb]

Uara no offence m8 but i think your the bad one...dont know why its possible im wrong but ive a got feeling its you.....the fact that we keep voting you out but you keep staying alive doesnt really help your case too much in my eyes either...having said that im not so sure voting you out again would make any difference cuz youd probably "somehow" survive again >.< ......so with that leeving Kir who i dont think it is, mey who im very unsure about either as good or bad and thorwyn who im sure has some agenda....on that base im curious to find out exactlywhat happens when thorwyn opens a box so Vote:Thorwyn

 

[Azurus]

Will you just die already Uara! (not irl ofc olol)

vote:Uara

 

[Uara]

Lol, but I don't like dying! I want to live, I want as many of us to walk out of here as possible!!

 

[kirennia]

So:

Kirennia - Mey,Uara
Thorwyn - Cerb
Uara - Kirennia, Azurus, Thorwyn

having said that im not so sure voting you out again would make any difference cuz youd probably "somehow" survive again >.< ......

The thing is, if he does know more then us I can't help but wonder whether such an ability, seeing into boxes, knowing them beforehand, anything along those lines, whether or not that is a good guy trait to be given or a bad guy one.

As in the spirit of the game that'd be considering cheating, I'm more inclined to think of the later, hence my suspicion of Mey also following:

If I were you i'd stick to the low numbers.

followed by being bought up on it and:

I'm wearing my lucky pants

In fact, Uara simply followed advice and lived whereas Mey has said more to make me beleive he has this ability so:

Unvote : Uara

Vote : Mey

Thinking back, using the logic of Uara knowing boxes is a bit of speculation and I shouldn't really take that into account. It would be wise for Mey to defend someone on his side as he's also been up for the vote before, even if that person isn't on his side... maybe he's been pushed into having to do that but as I say, that type of role strikes me as a bad guy attribute more then anything.

While it's a bit of a ye olde witch dipping as if he survives he'll look more guilty but if he dies he's dead anyway but unfortunately, I can't think of any other way to deduce whether or not he's a bad guy without being killed.

 

[kirennia]

So people don't read what I just put and see that as the current votes:

Kirennia - Mey,Uara
Thorwyn - Cerb
Uara - Azurus, Thorwyn
Mey - Kirennia

 

[Mey]

Didn't I tell you Mystic Meg was my mother?

I like your thinking but your way of the mark.

I'm not too sure about you being a baddy now, I'm leaning more towards.

4. Thorwyn
6. Cerb

 

[old.Tohtori]

Kirennias votecount is apt, nothing more )

 

[Uara]

Stuff

Very interesting stuff there Kirennia, I mean i'm happy Mey suggested I picked a low number as it did mean I've survived which is good, dont want my brains splattered all over the wall. The problem I'm feeling is that he does seem to be wanting to help me despite putting the deciding vote upon me for my death, he may well be using me but we won't find that out until later on when or if he has to open a box.

I'm leaning more towards..Thorwyn

Actually so am I, his decidedly random way of voting, this turn i'll vote for him, whilst next i'll vote for the other person is rather peculiar. I kno I was an advocate of not killing him in the first phase, but I think it might be time to call his bluff.

 

[Mey]

Unvote: kierenna

Vote: throwyn.

I'm just trying to keep those who I think are goodies alive, I voted for you to move the game along as we had a stalemate. lol.

 

[Uara]

I'm just trying to keep those who I think are goodies alive, I voted for you to move the game along as we had a stalemate. lol.

Yeah thats what I was thinking

I think Thor's had a safe enough ride through this sick gameshow after his opening suicidal moves. There's something not quite right with him so
unvote Kirennia still think theres something not quite right about you kirennia but Thor's going to get my steely gaze for the moment
Vote Thorwyn

 

[old.Tohtori]

Thorwyn - Cerb, mey, uara.
Uara - Azurus, Thorwyn
Mey - Kirennia

 

[kirennia]

Have just reread early posts and voting patterns along with what's happened recently and while I realise this is a bit of a backstep from what I've been saying recently but anyway:

1.Cerb
2.Mey
3.Uara
4.Azurus
5.Thorwyn

1.Cerb - Early vote on Thorwyn which could be seen as the safest, more innocent looking vote (as Thorwyn had led the charge himself). While I realise I did this also, it still needs to be mentioned as part of the below trend. After a while of deliberation he withdrew the vote and remained on the sideline until Ch3tan voted for himself at which point he commented:

And you consider that an intelligent reason to vote for someone? being a prick doesnt help either....Vote:Ch3tan

While I sympathise with the annoyance of Ch3tans comments, this has been the only sign of aggrevation throughout the game from Cerb when the guilty gets himself put up for the chopping block...

After this, only polite questioning of why Uara sided with Ch3tan (without action) followed by commenting on myself and Azurus siding before then joining the vote against Uara who at the time looked liable to be forced to open a box anyway. Polite speculation without actually pointing the finger getting retaliation votes.

For some time after this, the Mey/Uara lynches have been joined by you but in quite a non-inflammatory fashion up until now when you've gone for Thorwyn. I see Thorwyn as currently the most likely candidate for someone wanting to remain on the fence as the last few voting rounds have had Kirennia/Azurus/Cerb and Uara/Mey as what has at times seemed like 2 seperate camps. Thorwyn has been the only one really to break both sides of the fence as it were apart from when people have voted to speed things along.

I've noticed Cerb dropping down everyones priority list, staying on the fence or very slightly over it at times but generally being very neutral which in a game like this, I see more as a sign of guilt then innocence.



2.Mey - 2nd vote on Ch3tan with nothing more said and although Ch3tan seemed aggrevated by this; this could be in response to a teammate trying to cover his back. Other then that, a middle stint of very quiet votings other then to first vote on Uara, then vote for me when I bought up his silence. More recently, his switch to voting for Thorwyn was only commented after Cerb had started it and he only actually placed the vote after Uara suggested he may also vote too. Maybe looking for a person who looks likely to be killed this round.

Also still there are the comments telling Uara to pick a low numbered box which was either a luck based suggestion or down to a role which I'd see as only being attributed to a bad guy. If it wasn't for this, I don't know where he'd be on the list.



3.Uara - While he did vote early alongside Ch3tan, at early stages of the game as an innocent with no immediately known ally (unless the role dictates commercial talking with one), it's not always easy to pick out who's guilty so voting alongside them does happen as an innocent. From that point upto around now (don't take offense to this), he's been pretty much forced into actions by people leading charges on him from the first stage voting and siding with Mey as he seemed the only one who remained on his side following him starting to vote against me. Earlier observations I've commented are why he's still 3rd despite this.



4.Azurus - My initial reasoning for Azurus being innocent was leading the charge for Ch3tan to be killed but before he was put up to the vote, Azurus simply lay the first vote on him then didn't attempt to give anyonelse reason to vote, just said it was in retaliation to Ch3tan voting for him thus not drawing too much attention to Ch3tan. The consideration of him being good for laying the FIRST vote on a partner in crime is a fair one because it's not a good way to keep you both alive. Rarely however is the first person voted for the one to go at those early stages in the game and simply not drawing attention to either one is as fair game in keeping you both alive as not voting for that person. I can't help but listen to the nagging feeling in the back of my mind that it was a safeguard in case either one of them died... 4th on the list as this isn't the most likely scenario however.


5.Thorwyn - Although a lose cannon at times, I don't really see a voting pattern emerging apart from to not vote for the same person twice in succession. I really wish he hadn't voted for himself in the first round as that's where a lot of my conclusions have been drawn from. As of yet he's 5th on the list, not because I don't think there's a chance of guilt, more because I simply don't know where his votes are going to land.


As such, I'm once again changing my vote...

unvote:Mey

vote:Cerb

So current votes are:

Thorwyn - Cerb, Mey, Uara
Uara - Azurus, Thorwyn
Cerb - Kirennia

 

[Cerb]

lots of text

you tosser ive been on your side most of the time and now you turn on me? the worst part is my arguing against you now looks like some elaborate ploy by Both of us to take make it look like we are not together like uara/mey seems to think...youve left me stuck between a rock and a hard place!!......ive thought you were good this whole time...maybe you still are but im not going to lie and say this hasnt affected my viewpoint on you...im still not changing my vote as hes the only one im even vaguely sure about...sitting on the fence again as you would call it....you dont have to belive me but ive always been of a non confrontational dispostition....try and remember how many "arguments" if any ive had on these forums?....Ch3tan pissed me right off tho with personal insults because of a game and that my explanation for my reaction then......this is my attempt to change your mind...its up to you lot to belive me or not

 

[kirennia]

you tosser ive been on your side most of the time and now you turn on me? the worst part is my arguing against you now looks like some elaborate ploy by Both of us to take make it look like we are not together like uara/mey seems to think...youve left me stuck between a rock and a hard place!!......ive thought you were good this whole time...maybe you still are but im not going to lie and say this hasnt affected my viewpoint on you...im still not changing my vote as hes the only one im even vaguely sure about...sitting on the fence again as you would call it....you dont have to belive me but ive always been of a non confrontational dispostition....try and remember how many "arguments" if any ive had on these forums?....Ch3tan pissed me right off tho with personal insults because of a game and that my explanation for my reaction then......this is my attempt to change your mind...its up to you lot to belive me or not

It's not a personal attack. My viewpoint on these games has always been to look at it from an outsiders view, not to take anything done towards me or with me as a personal thing, more to look at everyone in the game as a suspect and to post according to info given at all stages in the game. Every comment made towards me is a comment made towards a person, not myself...it's the only way I can put myself in the shoes of an outsider when reevaluating. You aren't Cerb, you're an individual whose actions in each stage of the game allow me to deduce your chance of guilt. As the game progresses I'll reevaluate everyone, no matter what actions they've taken earlier on in my favour or against me.

To stick with alliances throughout despite viewpoints is the ignore the fact that we only have 100% proof of our own roles in the game; early alliances serve the purposes of early viewpoints and no-one should stick to them if they think there is a higher possibility of an ally being the guilty one then someone who has been against you throughout.

It may be seen as suicide as no doubt if Mey/Uara turn back on me then they now have another potential voter on their side but the first instinct of survival of the most people in this game is to eliminate who I think is the bad guy in this.

 

[kirennia]

Addition:

The first comment of "It's not a personal attack", I don't mean that I think you took it personally irl...bah, you get it anyway I hope

 

[Mey]

Kirennia Cerb is next on my chopping block. Im not convinced that your a baddy anymore so your safe in my eyes.

Thorwyn is a dark horse and he needs to be removed from the picture imo.

If hes good it'll be a shame, but atleast its one less down.

 

[Cerb]

Kirennia Cerb is next on my chopping block. Im not convinced that your a baddy anymore so your safe in my eyes.

Thorwyn is a dark horse and he needs to be removed from the picture imo.

If hes good it'll be a shame, but atleast its one less down.

So what he is sideing against me now so he must be good? is that enough to prove hes a goody? sounds like a bad guy trying to get one of the good guys on his side by siding with him to me ...........

 

[kirennia]

So what he is sideing against me now so he must be good? is that enough to prove hes a goody? sounds like a bad guy trying to get one of the good guys on his side by siding with him to me ...........

Someone siding with me doesn't prove their innocence to me, nor should it work in reverse for you...otherwise alliances formed in the first vote would end up deciding the outcome of the game.

As for the Thorwyn vote, I'm not going to vote for someone bottom of my list so I guess we'll be waiting for Azurus to state his beliefs before we continue as I presume Thorwyn isn't going to be voting for himself again, heh. Unless anyonelse is going to change their vote?

 

[Uara]

Back in from a nite-out and i'm going to have a good read!!
Thus for the moment
Unvote

 

[Azurus]

Uara much like a turd that wont flush i can't seem to get rid of you. Might as well get the ball rolling abit thought ay?

Unvote Uara

vote Cerb

 

[Cerb]

I know this is going to sound like desperation but i AM a good guy....just think you need to stop and think about this for a second...is playing it safe during the game enough of a reason to vote me out?

 

[kirennia]

Current votes:

Thorwyn - Cerb, Mey
Uara - Thorwyn
Cerb - Kirennia, Azurus

Unvoted : Uara


Would be interesting to hear other peoples conclusions drawn so far. If anything, it'll serve to help people better understand motives...

It is seeming that as people have no attention drawn to them, they go quite a bit quieter which is dangerous as without additional information about everyone, we aren't going to be able to draw whole conclusions. The only exception seems to be Thorwyn who was quiet even when he only had one vote to go, heh.

I want my vote to remain on Cerb but ideally don't want him or anyonelse put up to the chopping block until the quieter contributers have explained their current view.

I know this is going to sound like desperation but i AM a good guy....just think you need to stop and think about this for a second...is playing it safe during the game enough of a reason to vote me out?

It's not just playing it safe which has made me think this, it's looking back and comparing your chance of guilt to others according to the choices they've made as well.



Thorwyn is the mystery character which I don't really want to vote on before he's come up and shown his cards as it would be to vote for someone with no information whatsoever. A third vote on Ch3tan however, is a saving grace as it's a very dangerous vote to place on someone if they happen to be a teammate.

Azurus voted for Ch3tan first, okay so it was a retaliation vote and I initially thought it might have just been luck that he picked him but I'm still working on the assumption that the bad guys know who each other are. Thus, picking on him initially, especially after Ch3tans aggressive start, I don't think would have been a very good way to keep them both alive.

Those two were below you in my list of guilt so that'd leave Mey and Uara. I'll start with Mey as he's unrelated to my conclusion of you.

Mey was initially very quiet and after the barrage of insinuations (sp?), made what I see as a guilty looking action by telling Uara to pick a low box, leading me to beleive he may have an attribute of his role which seems like a bad one. The reason he's dropped down my list of the guilty looking was looking back at his second vote on Ch3tan. First votes on people can throw people off track but don't for the most part at the start of a game lead to the first kill but second ones, they start the ball rolling as the bandwagon starts to come in. Personally, I see 2nd votes, maybe 3rd too as the most contributory(sp?) to a vote off. This is why he's slipped down my list to number 2.

Uara after a very active first stint was one of only 3 people who didn't vote for Ch3tan along with myself and you thus he, along with us two drew a lot of attention. Actions after that point were (again, sorry if this seems too presumtious) forced as to break his alliance with Mey would have meant an even higher chance to be continually voted off until he picked a bad box. His picking of a few good boxes, his own was luck of the draw, second can also be attributed to luck but the third was influenced by Mey so I wouldn't take that into consideration. A bit of a hazy conclusion and I wouldn't put him completely out of the picture but he's been put to number three because of Mey and your actions, not only his.


This leaves me with you who was one of three who didn't vote for Ch3tan. Granted not everyone could vote for him so there were always going to be three who didn't (1,2 or 3 innocents included) but keeping on pretty much everyones side during the course of the game is a sure fire bad guy attribute to have. If we weren't 170+ posts into the game, I wouldn't take this into consideration but other then your annoyance at Ch3tan, you've remained in healthy standings with everyone. I know you don't get into arguments or anything with people on the forum but that's not the point of my analogy. It's the non-direct approach to which you've voted for people.

It's not a change in your approach only, it's re-evaluation of everyonelse too.

 

[kirennia]

Note:

Oops, just read back and noticed Uara only opened two boxes so ignore the comment about his own. It only serves to strengthen the point however...

 

[Cerb]

A fair point i guess...but can you tell me what you mean by non direct way i vote for peole i dont really understand what you mean?

 

[kirennia]

Long post again...will cut out non vote quotes for ease of reading.

Im sorry but maybe im wrong but voting for yourself...how could this be anything but some kind of ploy? Vote:Thorwyn

Voting for someone who voted for themself, the safe option and it isn't going to get the person who you voted fors back up.

On second thoughts i think people are right and thorwyn is up to something so Unvote: Thorwyn not 100% precent who to vote for now though

Expressing concerns of not knowing who is guilty is siding with everyone, not pointing the finger thus not drawing attention.

Ch3tan im tempted to vote for you now as your seemingly random vote for azurus.....ill give you a chance to explain why to me but otherwise im voting for you...

Asking Ch3tan in non-accusing way, giving him a chance to explain himself to everyone but in a way which doesn't detract guilty feelings from your part.

And you consider that an intelligent reason to vote for someone? being a prick doesnt help either....Vote:Ch3tan

Vote after he had 4 votes. Granted, I see your annoyance at him voting for himself, you aren't alone in this but it's the fact it was the only aggrevated post despite Thorwyn voting for himself (I know he didn't do it aggressively like Ch3tan but still worth a mention) nor when the Mey votes started to draw aggrevating comments and him voting for himself.

Sorry uara, i know youve given me a fairly reasonable explanation on why you did what you did, But i have nothing else to go on at the moment than the fact that you seemed to side with ch3tan so im going to Vote:Uara for now but my vote may change.

Apologetic vote stating you don't know if he's guilty or not thus not drawing attention from him against you. After myself and Azurus had laid a vote on him in a more direct way, the attention was always going to come to us from him; myself more then Azurus as I was one who didn't vote for Ch3tan thus looked more guilty.

Dont care if it makes me look guilty i dont think its kireanna and if it is ill be shocked but either way im not voting ofr him....he does make a valid point about Azurus though..Ive got my doubts about Uara even though he survived and even if he explaind why he voted for AZ but since im not sure and i dont want to vote for thor because of what he did in the first round im going to Vote Mey

Voting for Mey because other options are inconclusive instead of voting for him stating why you think he personally is guilty. As a result, not drawing his attention as more was going on against Uara at the time. After Mey had already been put up for the vote, he was at the beginning of that round, the more likely candidate for expulsion.

Point taken...if its going to require someone to change votes then i might aswell give it ago as im nowhere near 100% on my vote for mey...short one liners isnt really all that good a reason...i suspect Uara and i think the fact he said he was a good guy before he "survived" means nothing....In my eyes most to least guilt runs

1Uara
2May
3Thorwyn
4Kireanna
5Me (i know im innocent but in your eyes you cant be sure right?)
6 Azuras

On this basis to get things going again i Unvote Mey and Vote Uara.....i hope to jebus that hes not a good guy....

Change to Uara with an innocent edge to it, again not directly stating why you think he's guilty although this post does push my point away the most as you directly stated your order of guilt. Adding yourself in however, it makes me think this is how you perceived everyonelses view of things mixed with your views, thus making Uara the safer bet at the time...especially as with myself/Azurus and you at the time (can't remember if it was Mey or Uara who suggested) being 'allied' thus being in a safer position needing at least one of us to change our minds in order for any of the three of us to have a chance at being voted.

and yes i know im siding with Kireanna again but i think hes a good un so :kissit:

If Kir is guilty i will have been so unbelieveably duped but hey if im wrong im sorry but the game must go on and all that

Sorry, 2 non-vote posts but it helps the point. Further expressing your trust for me after having put Azurus at the bottom of your list acheiving what is essentially the same thing with both of us. Again, 'helper' posts rather then a direct reference to your thought of anyones guilt i.e. Uara who you'd voted on just 15 minutes before expressing these comments.

Uara no offence m8 but i think your the bad one...dont know why its possible im wrong but ive a got feeling its you.....the fact that we keep voting you out but you keep staying alive doesnt really help your case too much in my eyes either...having said that im not so sure voting you out again would make any difference cuz youd probably "somehow" survive again >.< ......so with that leeving Kir who i dont think it is, mey who im very unsure about either as good or bad and thorwyn who im sure has some agenda....on that base im curious to find out exactlywhat happens when thorwyn opens a box so Vote:Thorwyn

Again, not directly expressing your thought of Thorwyns guilt instead drawing small references to other people without actually explaining guilty motives. Uara and Mey you'd already voted on and it did look like Azurus and myself would go for one of them as we had throughout earlier stages of the game.


The common trend for other posts was to politely ask why people had done certain things, keeping yourself out there with posts but not pointing fingers unless the person seemed to be likely on their way out anyway.

 

[kirennia]

Forgot to add, posts after this weren't considered for the theory, only as a new basis of what you believe as it'd be pointless to carry on listing them after you'd been told of them.

 

[Cerb]

i guess i can see what you mean but ask yourself...does playing it safe really mean im guilty?

 

[kirennia]

i guess i can see what you mean but ask yourself...does playing it safe really mean im guilty?

When comparing that with the fact you were one of three who didn't vote for Ch3tan and noting others actions as well, it makes you look more guilty then the rest in my eyes. You can't be 100% sure of course and to wait for that to happen would mean never ending games so to me, it's more about the percentages.

Would however like to hear more input still from others...24 hours with only two comments; it's starting to drag a bit...

 

[Uara]

sorry its been a bit of a tough weekend for me, so going to have a read through now at work and get something out!

 

[Thorwyn]

I`m a bit busy IRL at the moment, but rest assured that I`m reading everything here and I have to admit I´m enjoying the conspiracy theories, so keep it up guys!

My stated aim - right from the start - was to have some fun and thrill. I´m neither a goodie, nor a baddie, I´m a fun mavin. I also wouldn´t have a problem voting for myself again, but since you guys decided that selfvotes are a symptom of ploy and end up it mistrust and being unvoted. So I`ll stick to my "vote for people without direct reasoning" strategy.