Politics So...Europe then?

[Gwadien]

On a plus side, they got rid of David Cameron and likely George Osbourne, downside? the cunts that will likely replace them.

As much as everyone slags off Cameron, you only need to read Corbyns comments about his resignation; he's still a Tory who very much moved his party closer and closer to the middle ground.

 

[BloodOmen]

also! interesting read, scary though because if its true, david cameron and his advisors are genius, which is scary.

People are hoping this theory about David Cameron and Brexit is true

 

[Job]

I think I posted that it's not legally binding and won't happen months ago.

 

[BloodOmen]

As much as everyone slags off Cameron, you only need to read Corbyns comments about his resignation; he's still a Tory who very much moved his party closer and closer to the middle ground.

Aye, I just didn't like him for his views on the poor, then again most of the elites that went to eton feel the same as him.... + he stick his sausage in a pigs head.

 

[BloodOmen]

Lol, Douglas Carswell photoshopped his twitter banner, wonder if he's been hacked or something. I thought it was just a joke at first, checked his Twitter and it's actually real.

Douglas Carswell MP (@DouglasCarswell) on Twitter

 

[BloodOmen]

Oh this gets better, he didn't photoshop it, vote leave had more than 1 bus lol

 

[dysfunction]

also! interesting read, scary though because if its true, david cameron and his advisors are genius, which is scary.

People are hoping this theory about David Cameron and Brexit is true

That's just wishful thinking.
Especially after what George Osbourne has said this morning.

 

[Yoni]

I liked Osbourn's speech this morning.

 

[Embattle]

I saw some public demonstrations supporting Jeremy Corbyn, one sign said he was a traditional labour leader and I translated that to unelectable. I do credit him with the fact that he doesn't appear to waiver from his own beliefs.

 

[Embattle]

I see he is already appointing new cabinet members.

 

[caLLous]

Will he be able to fill a shadow cabinet though? There could be 3 months of a government that doesn't really give a toss against half an opposition.

 

[Raven]

No emergency budget after all.

So we are starting to realise that people were correct all along. The remain side were full of shit, just as much as the leave side.

 

[caLLous]

Brexit: anxious employers freeze jobs and cut investment plans

Barclays and RBS shares suspended from trading after tanking more than 8%

Don't worry though, at least those bossy boots in Brussels won't tell us what to do!

To say that Remain is/was as full of shit as Leave is weapons-grade stupid. Yes they both told lies, yes both campaigns were awfully managed but Leave have been frantically backtracking since the vote came in. IDS is the latest to make a fool of himself over the £350m line. Today's piece by Johnson in the Telegraph is as middle-of-the-road as it's possible to be whilst still being on one side of it. He *really* didn't want to win this.

 

[Raven]

Well no not really. Is it. Actually read the stories too perhaps?

25% of companies asked said they would be having an employment freeze. 5% said they were considering cuts. 33%ish stating they would continue to recruit.

So, business as usual then, as far as employing staff goes.

 

[caLLous]

And in the very next sentence (which you chose not to reference in your post for some reason):

More than a third planned to reduce their investment plans and a fifth said they would consider moving some operations abroad.

 

[Raven]

I read the BBC version, not the one behind a pay-wall where nobody can actually read it.

Some companies plan Brexit hiring freeze, says IoD - BBC News

 

[caLLous]

Apologies, it loaded for me (but now isn't) so I thought it was outside the paywall.

Britain’s vote to leave the EU is prompting a sizeable minority of employers in the UK to freeze hiring and cut their investment plans, according to a survey of more than 1,000 business leaders.

The poll is an early indication that a British exit from the bloc will hit jobs and investment as employers grapple with volatile markets and political instability. Almost two-thirds of the business leaders surveyed by the Institute of Directors on June 24-26, immediately after the vote, said the referendum result would be “negative” for them.

While a third said they would continue to hire at the same pace, a quarter planned to freeze recruitment and 5 per cent expected to fire staff. More than a third planned to reduce their investment plans and a fifth said they would consider moving some operations abroad.

“We cannot sugarcoat this: many of our members are feeling anxious,” said Simon Walker, the IoD’s director-general.

Many economists are already revising down their forecasts for growth in 2016 and 2017, with some expecting a recession. The revisions are in line with the projections made before the referendum by economists, the Treasury and others.

Even Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence party, told the Telegraph the UK was “going into a mild recession”, although he insisted this would have happened “regardless of Brexit”.

The IoD survey tallies with anecdotal evidence. Erik Nielsen, UniCredit’s global chief economist, reported in a note to clients on Sunday: “My neighbour … who runs a small IT company catering predominantly to the financial and legal industries, told me this morning that virtually his entire order book was cancelled on Friday by clients who are putting their projects on hold.”

In three main ways, Britain is more resilient than it was in 2008 when the global financial crisis hit.

The shock of a Leave vote is very different from the subprime mortgage debt crisis, which struck at the heart of banks’ balance sheets and raised serious questions about their solvency. Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, said on Friday that banks were now much better placed to continue lending to businesses and consumers.

If banks and building societies did start to restrict access to credit, the BoE could extend its Funding for Lending Scheme, which incentivises lending to the real economy.

The sharp depreciation of sterling will provide respite for some companies, particularly those that have significant earnings in foreign currencies and those that sell much of their output abroad.

“This favours the international FTSE 100 at the expense of the FTSE 250,” said Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Wealth Management. This was apparent on Friday as the FTSE 100 fell by 3 per cent, while the FTSE 250 fell by 7 per cent.

Brexit’s impact is more narrowly centred on the UK than the 2008 crisis was, meaning that demand for exports from our major trading partners is likely to hold up better. This will be particularly true if European leaders can prevent Britain’s vote to leave the EU precipitating similar breakaway moves from other countries within the bloc. To do this, they will need to neutralise calls from nationalists such as Marine Le Pen in France and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.

Yet the UK economy is still vulnerable. Furthermore, with interest rates at record lows and government borrowing still high, there is less scope for policymakers to help out this time.

The depreciation of sterling, though beneficial for some export businesses, will push up the price of imported goods and reduce consumers’ spending power. Household incomes will also be hit if unemployment rises, as the survey of IoD members suggests.

In such circumstances, consumers would usually cut back on less essential purchases, reducing demand for cars, overseas travel and some retail purchases. Uncertainty is also likely to depress activity in the housing market as homebuyers reassess their finances and wait to see in which direction the UK economy is going to move.

When demand suffers, central banks usually step in. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee thinks a further rate cut from 0.5 per cent would provide some boost to demand; many commentators, including Goldman Sachs’ Andrew Benito, predict a 25 basis point cut in August’s meeting and further bond purchases. But others worry this would be useless or even counter-productive.

“The Bank is in a pickle,” said Neil Williams of Hermes Investment Management, adding there was not much scope for further rate cuts and cautioning that additional quantitative easing would bring with it “attendant pressures on pension funds”.

Other possible interventions by the central bank — such as extending the Funding for Lending Scheme — will only be effective if agents in the real economy are willing to spend the money made available.

Fiscal policy may also provide only limited support to the economy through the coming turbulent months. Public sector borrowing and debt are much higher than in 2008, limiting the scope for fiscal stimulus, though Victoria Clarke, an economist at Investec, said investors would “remain sanguine” even if the government did miss UK chancellor George Osborne’s target of achieving a fiscal surplus in 2019.

More of a risk is the political instability, which will make it harder to find someone with the authority to quickly implement a significant fiscal stimulus. This is very different from 2008, when the Labour government was quick to respond to the financial crisis with plans for accelerating investment spending, cutting VAT and boosting benefit payments.

For business leaders, this lack of political leadership may well be the biggest concern. Their top two priorities are for the economy to be stabilised and for a new trade deal with the EU, according to the IoD survey. “We were promised an open and outward-looking country after Brexit. Now it must be delivered,” concluded Mr Walker.

This doesn't scream "business as usual" to me...

Almost two-thirds of the business leaders surveyed by the Institute of Directors on June 24-26, immediately after the vote, said the referendum result would be “negative” for them.

 

[Raven]

"As far as employing staff goes"

 

[Embattle]

This was a typical British revolution because it was a more moderate government that gave us a referendum yet ironically in other countries such as France etc it'll end up requiring far right parties to be in power to actually give them a referendum should they really want one.

I think the employment issue is a slight red herring, some of these changes were probably already on the books for this year any way.

 

[Raven]

Yup. The inevitable Frexit is going to be a hell of a lot more messy than Brexit.

 

[caLLous]

A Remain vote would literally have been "business as usual" but the Leave "win" has led to uncertainty which has led to companies revising forecasts and tightening belts.

Yup. The inevitable Frexit is going to be a hell of a lot more messy than Brexit.

Why?

 

[Raven]

Because it will be a far right government that gets it and keeps hold of power post-Frexit. Rather than a pretty much middleground government here.

 

[Scouse]

Pound at 31 year low.

Nothing to see here tho. Brexit having no effect whatsoever.

 

[DaGaffer]

One thing I am sure about, the French (especially the far right French), won't be calling it "Frexit". La Sortie Française, so they'll probably call it "SoFr" or something equally uncatchy.

 

[Raven]

Nobody is saying that though?

 

[Raven]

Nothing to see here tho. Brexit having no effect whatsoever.

Nobody is saying that though?

Regardless, it was bound to have an effect. I don't think even the most vocal of Leavers said there would be no effect...

 

[caLLous]

Because it will be a far right government that gets it and keeps hold of power post-Frexit. Rather than a pretty much middleground government here.

I don't see how having a far right government in power before and after the referendum would be messier, though. At least they'd have some sort of plan in place. That's if Le Pen even gets in, which is looking unlikely according to polls and (close your ears Leave voters) experts.

 

[Raven]

Polls are really accurate these days.

Hang on a minute!

 

[Job]

Pound at 31 year low.

Nothing to see here tho. Brexit having no effect whatsoever.

still a lot of uncertainty, actually I thought at this point it was going to be a lot worse.

 

[Scouse]