Politics Scottish Independance?

[rynnor]

I don't think the Petrochemical plant decision is likely to change - this is bad news for the whole UK because its refined petrochemical products like plastics were being used by a host of other companies so this could cause much wider impact than just to Grangemouth.

The big question is over the future of the Refinery on the same site - the Chairman of Ineos said it was probably not viable without the Petrochemical plant so its not looking hopeful.

Its a disaster jobswise - these are not the sort of jobs that our economy creates many of these days.

 

[rynnor]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24647843
So wait, what's going on here is;

Union wanted something changing, Company said no, Union persisted, Company shuts down Grangemouth, Union gives up and agrees?

Too late - for one thing the union has no mandate when over half the workers rejected the changes to their conditions. Big companies do not make such decisions lightly and they dont generally change their minds.

As I understand this dispute was partly a clash of personalities between the Union guy and the Owner - in this respect the Union has done a very poor job of looking after its members interests by not encouraging them to accept the changes.

 

[old.user4556]

I think we need to take a step back from the emotional impact and look at it from a business perspective - if it is bleeding £10mil every four weeks, then who in their right mind would want to keep it open with such a large financial liability when there are cheaper alternatives?

Personally, I think it's absolutely tragic, but standing back from it then I can't see how it's financially viable even if the Scottish Government finds a buyer.

 

[DaGaffer]

I don't think the Petrochemical plant decision is likely to change - this is bad news for the whole UK because its refined petrochemical products like plastics were being used by a host of other companies so this could cause much wider impact than just to Grangemouth.

The big question is over the future of the Refinery on the same site - the Chairman of Ineos said it was probably not viable without the Petrochemical plant so its not looking hopeful.

Its a disaster jobswise - these are not the sort of jobs that our economy creates many of these days.

Not really, there's been quite a bit of refining over-capacity in the UK for a while, which is why a couple of refineries have already closed in the past few years, and most of the others are actually running at a loss at the moment. The big problem with Grangemouth is actually its effect on the oil fields themselves; it actually provides a pumping feed (power and steam) to the main North Sea field, BP Forties. So if it closes, I'm not entirely sure how the field keeps operating. I assume there's some kind of switchover to other refineries, but I can't imagine it allows full capacity pumping.

 

[old.user4556]

What the papers are saying:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...e-threatens-north-sea-production-8898856.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/oil/10399531/Oil-and-troubled-waters-for-Alex-Salmond.html

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/uk-grangemouth-scotland-idUKBRE99M0A220131023

 

[rynnor]

Not really, there's been quite a bit of refining over-capacity in the UK for a while, which is why a couple of refineries have already closed in the past few years, and most of the others are actually running at a loss at the moment. The big problem with Grangemouth is actually its effect on the oil fields themselves; it actually provides a pumping feed (power and steam) to the main North Sea field, BP Forties. So if it closes, I'm not entirely sure how the field keeps operating. I assume there's some kind of switchover to other refineries, but I can't imagine it allows full capacity pumping.

I think you are confusing the refinery with the petro chemical plant - the petro chemical plant (which is really a series of small plants producing specialist chemicals) is not an area we have over capacity with in the UK. You are right on the refinery though although others have already closed/mothballed in the UK so if Grangemouth closes we would be pretty much at demand level.

This is a potential problem because some of the refineries down south have a tendency to strike so we could actually have problems now if they do.

 

[rynnor]

The big problem with Grangemouth is actually its effect on the oil fields themselves; it actually provides a pumping feed (power and steam) to the main North Sea field, BP Forties. So if it closes, I'm not entirely sure how the field keeps operating. I assume there's some kind of switchover to other refineries, but I can't imagine it allows full capacity pumping.

This is a key bit that potentially turns a disaster into an apocalypse for the SNP.

 

[old.user4556]

(granted, only the petrochemical part - for now...)

I did address that further up, it's only the PC part just now, but we need to consider the further impacts and consequences.

 

[rynnor]

I think we need to take a step back from the emotional impact and look at it from a business perspective - if it is bleeding £10mil every four weeks, then who in their right mind would want to keep it open with such a large financial liability when there are cheaper alternatives?

Personally, I think it's absolutely tragic, but standing back from it then I can't see how it's financially viable even if the Scottish Government finds a buyer.

Of course you are right although Ineos seemed to think with some investment it could be made profitable again.

I can't see anyone buying it now though.

 

[Raven]

Profitable with investment and other cut backs*

 

[old.user4556]

Wow. Just...wow. Because an independent Socialist Republik of Scotland is going to be sooo business-friendly. What's the betting that if England Scotland does get independence, Westminster will still be the subject of complaints about dark plots to undermine Scotland. Without the Auld Enemy these fucktards won't know what to do with themselves.

It's truly embarrassing, the nationalists are bordering on fucktarded fascists.

 

[rynnor]

Apparently Salmond told the head of Unite that the scottish government would not let the plant close.

That could be interesting...

On the tech side a number of oil people say the plant is doomed because it runs on feedstock that is now expensive compared to alternatives and that the profitable plants are in North America now.

 

[Tom]

If he's said the Scottish government will not let the place close then he's in deep water now, because if it does close those words will bite him hard.

 

[rynnor]

If he's said the Scottish government will not let the place close then he's in deep water now, because if it does close those words will bite him hard.

From this - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24650359

"1100:

Speaking after leaving meeting with Ineos management, Mr McCluskey says he is "encouraged" by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond saying the Scottish government was not going to allow the plant to close."

 

[rynnor]

This bit I don't quite understand:

"1640:

Mr Connarty says it is his understanding that the union will be making no challenges to the survival plan and will be accepting it in full. He adds: "As far as I understand the company are away to draft it into a legal document which the convenor will sign on behalf of the shop stewards committee, and that will then be binding on the workforce in the plant." "

The last thing the workers did was vote to reject this same agreement - how can the union agree to it without another ballot and without that how could it possibly bind the members?

 

[rynnor]

The latest on the Beeb is that Ineos are laying off the contractors.

 

[old.user4556]

Winds of change.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-24645770

 

[rynnor]

Winds of change.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-24645770

What's your take on it? Was it dominated by local issues (like the dodgy bloke who was the previous MP) or does it reflect the national mood?

 

[old.user4556]

Well, speaking as someone who voted SNP last time, it was in protest against the Labour government. The Tories have very little support in Scotland, so the only way to make a dent to Labour is to vote SNP (as I did). You can understand why though between Blair's nonsense and then Gordon Brown's hopelessness following that.

I just wonder if this is an early indication that the SNP are on their way out because it's quite a reasonable swing.

 

[Job]

No nuclear weapons...just hide behind ours...while we hide behind Americas.

 

[old.user4556]

lulz at this white paper. Shitepaper more like.

 

[Raven]

Not read it and have no intention of reading it but some of the key points make for amusing reading.

 

[Poag]

Just reading the live updates on the BBC site.

Theres a quote from Sturgeon saying that "If currency union is not possible, then we dont see that Scotland will be able to take on its share of UK debt"

Is this woman mad?

 

[rynnor]

This is lolworthy - "VETERAN independence campaigner Margo MacDonald today urged people not to be deterred from voting Yes just because they didn’t like some of the policies in the SNP’s White Paper published today."

Source - http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.c...dependence-snp-launches-white-paper-1-3208797

 

[rynnor]

The problem with the white paper is that its fundamentally built on assumptions about how future negotiations will go - imagine what would happen if UKIP got in - ouch!

 

[Embattle]

Even the main policies read like a work of fiction.

 

[rynnor]

It's curiously unimaginative though - retaining the pound and the bank of England sounds dull.

Surely a more sellable Independence would have a Scottish pound and talk of freedom! And why all the piddly bribes when they could just promise everyone a thousand Scottish pounds per voter if independence wins - that's a winnable position!

This is just mush - it goes too far to reassure that everything will stay the same that you wonder what the point is.

 

[DaGaffer]

It's curiously unimaginative though - retaining the pound and the bank of England sounds dull.

Surely a more sellable Independence would have a Scottish pound and talk of freedom! And why all the piddly bribes when they could just promise everyone a thousand Scottish pounds per voter if independence wins - that's a winnable position!

This is just mush - it goes too far to reassure that everything will stay the same that you wonder what the point is.

They need to maintain Sterling because any mention of joining the Euro would kill the Yes vote stone dead, and despite what they say in the White Paper, an independent Scottish currency is not an option if they want to be independent members of the EU. New accession states have to join the Euro. The SNP is using Sterling as a way of getting around the issue (by claiming they're not really a "new" accession state), but its not even clear whether the EU will buy it.

They argue in the white paper that the UK will agree to a currency union because its in the UK's interest to do so, which may be true, but I really really think they're ignoring the "fuck you" factor here. Letting Scotland go its own way entirely on its own terms seems pretty unlikely to me, given human nature.

 

[Gwadien]

It's curiously unimaginative though - retaining the pound and the bank of England sounds dull.

Surely a more sellable Independence would have a Scottish pound and talk of freedom! And why all the piddly bribes when they could just promise everyone a thousand Scottish pounds per voter if independence wins - that's a winnable position!

This is just mush - it goes too far to reassure that everything will stay the same that you wonder what the point is.

The only reason they have for independence is the sense of 'FREEDOOM' because they're not exactly getting treated terribly as it is, so it seems to be a bit of a U-turn to say, okay, we'll keep some English stuff.

 

[Embattle]

We

They need to maintain Sterling because any mention of joining the Euro would kill the Yes vote stone dead, and despite what they say in the White Paper, an independent Scottish currency is not an option if they want to be independent members of the EU. New accession states have to join the Euro. The SNP is using Sterling as a way of getting around the issue (by claiming they're not really a "new" accession state), but its not even clear whether the EU will buy it.

Another example is the idea of joining NATO and the removal of nuclear weapons - http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/14/nato-blow-snp-nuclear-strategy

He certainly seems to be doing a lot of cherry picking, walking away one moment then claiming that something is as much Scotland's as it is London's.