Politics Scottish Independance.....Thoughts?

[Raven]

The old guard will be the new guard...

Scottish Labour will win after the SNP are fucked off. They will just have a shorter commute.

 

[old.user4556]

I'd be interested to see what would happen to the SNP - would they become "new Scottish Labour"? or would they become the "Scottish Socialists"?

 

[old.user4556]

The reason there is low voter turnout is not because the English are uninterested in politics - it's that our politicians fail to offer us something worth turning out to vote for.

Scotland is proof of this.

Indeed, they're talking about ~80% turnout at least.

When did a UK election last get that turnout, if ever?

 

[Hawkwind]

Move where? From England to .. er .. England?

HQ's corporate headquarters whatever the fuck you wanna call it! Its about what will be left of the banking sector in iScot, but facepalm all ya want! Edinburgh has always been had a strong banking presence, or is that no issue at all?

 

[Raven]

Indeed, they're talking about ~80% turnout at least.

When did a UK election last get that turnout, if ever?

That's mostly down to the fact that the result actually matters, I would expect a similar figure from a European referendum. In a general election it doesn't really matter who you vote for, the result is the same.

If voting was mandatory then parties would be created to suit what people want, or parties would set policy to what people want.

 

[old.user4556]

HQ's corporate headquarters whatever the fuck you wanna call it! Its about what will be left of the banking sector in iScot, but facepalm all ya want! Edinburgh has always been had a strong banking presence, or is that no issue at all?

They'll move them out of Scotland why? They'll leave their international bits intact around the globe, they'll have their IT support in India, they'll continue their business teams in Manilla, but they'll pull a small pool of people out of Edinburgh?

Why would they do that, just out of spite? It's probably the biggest false scare story that the referendum has generated - "go independent and we'll move to England". Hell, even people I know have been saying it - "first thing I do is move to England!". Retarded at best.

 

[Hawkwind]

Issues of tax and currency for a start and the fact that you'll be a non EU country. It makes sense to move them due to the uncertainties in the short term. If people think this is going to be a harmonious split with all treaties agreed in 18 months I personally think they are delusional.

In RBS case the fact the UK government owns 75% of the voting rights - iSalmonds 8.3%

 

[Raven]

There is more to it than that. While it wouldn't make a lot of direct difference to jobs etc the financial effect would be huge.

The banks simply wont stay if they have no safety net.

 

[Zarjazz]

Indeed, they're talking about ~80% turnout at least.

When did a UK election last get that turnout, if ever?

The 1950's - http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/16/uk-election-turnouts-historic

 

[Vae]

Regardless of the banks one thing seeming likely is that a lot of the Scottish pension providers (Standard Life, Scottish Widows etc) will be considering moving their operations South or splitting them if there is a Yes vote and no currency union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...dependence-How-it-will-affect-your-money.html
Some companies are already moving pension providers from a Scottish based one to a rUK based one even before the vote.
http://bettertogether.net/blog/entr...g-money-out-of-scotland-over-separation-risks
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c43c9a14-3846-11e4-9fc2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3Cu7cOocX

 

[old.user4556]

There is more to it than that. While it wouldn't make a lot of direct difference to jobs etc the financial effect would be huge.

The banks simply wont stay if they have no safety net.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but stay where since they're already based in England?

Edit: referring to RBS / Lloyds.

 

[Hawkwind]

Actually moved mine from Scottish Widows (offshore) to London Colonial (offshore) 9 months ago. Damn glad I did to.

 

[old.user4556]

I understand the concern with pensions, they're a different ballgame.

 

[old.user4556]

The 1950's - http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/16/uk-election-turnouts-historic

A long time ago then.

 

[Scouse]

In a general election it doesn't really matter who you vote for, the result is the same.

This is true.

If voting was mandatory then parties would be created to suit what people want, or parties would set policy to what people want.

This is laughable idiocy.

 

[Raven]

I hate to sound like a broken record, but stay where since they're already based in England?

Edit: referring to RBS / Lloyds.

They are based in GB, not England. Any tax revenue goes to GB. Scotland will lose that portion of tax revenue.

 

[Scouse]

The banks simply wont stay if they have no safety net.

That's great from the scottish point of view. They can fuck off to England where if they fail then the idiot public and their corrupt government will bail them out again.

Scotland would let them fail. And that's a good thing.

 

[Raven]

No, they wouldn't...not through choice anyway.

 

[Scouse]

They are based in GB, not England. Any tax revenue goes to GB. Scotland will lose that portion of tax revenue.

They're based in the City of London - not GB. The City of London is like the Vatican - so the fact that some of that tax revenue goes to England is just luck too - it could just as easily go to Jamaica as England or Scotland...

 

[old.user4556]

They are based in GB, not England. Any tax revenue goes to GB. Scotland will lose that portion of tax revenue.

The other argument is that iScot would lower corporation tax and thus try to make it more attractive.

Speaking from experience, the realistic way forward would be for the banks to divest a portion of their business to run in a ring-fenced iScot setup. Bank divestment has been done before and very successfully, so it's perfectly reasonable to assume that's what would happen in iScot.

 

[Scouse]

No, they wouldn't...not through choice anyway.

Why not? Iceland did, to great effect.

But then, they're an independent country eh?

 

[Hawkwind]

@Big G You probably think I'm just scaremongering this shit but I am genuinely concerned and think iScot is terrible for the UK in the short and long term. Even given that I do not live there and in fact the devaluation of the pound is financially great for me, I still don't want it. A 10% drop is expected and that would personally save me around between 50-60K GBP on the purchase of another house were buying in Cornwall. Drop in real terms of my pension contributions and whats left of the mortgage.

The problem is that its generating a lot of animosity and there will be repercussions of that, regardless of the result. With a UK General Election set in the middle of the expected handover there is going to be a lot of political gain from promising to play hardball with iScott on most of the fundamental issues. I know there is talk of delaying the election but if I was in the Cons shoes I would press full ahead with it, probably the only way they are going to get back in. That would not be on the back of a "we will treat them fairly and cave in on fundamental issues" manifesto....The timing of this could not be worse really.

 

[Gwadien]

I always thought that RBS especially WILL have to move to England if independence comes, or the other option is to drop the vast majority of their customers in England, to have a majority in Scotland?

 

[old.user4556]

For the love of God - guys, why would they throw iScot under a bus when:



That is a global map of where RBS group operates both in markets and in services. Why would an independent Scotland make RBS say "fuck this, LETS MOVE TO ENGLAND" when a) they're already there! b) they're an international company dealing in many currencies c) it wouldn't make a fucking difference considering the already established foreign operations?

 

[old.user4556]

Also, I forgot. RBS owns and operates Ulster Bank which is HQ'd in Dublin and operates both in NI as part of the Sterling zone and RoE in the Eurozone.

This "MOVE TO ENGLAND" is just unfounded nonsense.

 

[Hawkwind]

UK Government owns 25% LLoyds and 80% of RBS. Why the UK people allow a bank they effectively own stay in iScot?

 

[old.user4556]

So you're saying the UK people would not allow RBS / Lloyds to operate in iScot, yet they already have offices around the globe including RoE? Why would rUK say "you can operate out of Dublin, but we're not letting you operate out of Edinburgh" other than sheer spite that Scotland declared independence?

 

[Gwadien]

So you're saying the UK people would not allow RBS / Lloyds to operate in iScot, yet they already have offices around the globe including RoE? Why would rUK say "you can operate out of Dublin, but we're not letting you operate out of Edinburgh" other than sheer spite that Scotland declared independence?

No, he has a point, again, why would we leave a bank which we own, out of our hands?

That's a bit daft.

That's like taking back national ownership of the railways then running them from Uzbekistan

 

[Scouse]

UK Government owns 25% LLoyds and 80% of RBS. Why the UK people allow a bank they effectively own stay in iScot?

IF they moved it they won't move it to England anyway - they'd move it to the City.

Who gives a fuck anyway? It's just not *that* big a deal in the scheme of things when you consider what else is going on...

No, he has a point, again, why would we leave a bank which we own, out of our hands?

1) It would still be "in our hands" - just subject to a (possibly, not definitely) different taxation regime.

2) And shortly after that it'll be in private hands again - we spent all that money on buying it off the already rich - bailing them out - and now we'll sell it back to them. So it'll be a private bank again.

So *who cares*...

 

[old.user4556]

No, he has a point, again, why would we leave a bank which we own, out of our hands?

That's a bit daft.

That's like taking back national ownership of the railways then running them from Uzbekistan

The cut, split, chop-up and allocation of assets and liabilities is still up for negotiation. I do not see how iScot can walk away from it's share of the debt personally.