Politics POLL: Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

If you were an MP would you vote for or against it?

  • FOR

  • AGAINST


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Wij

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Given the Government struggles to forecast next Quarter's GDP with any sort of accuracy I'll take their forecasts for 13 years out with a pinch of salt. They also seem to be assuming there would be no cost in GDP to remaining in the EU. As there was no "status-quo" option on the ballot, I'm intrigued how they think that would be the case. For instance if they continue with their plans to harmonise Corporation Tax and we were still a member, could we guarantee that wouldn't have an effect on GDP? How can the Treasury guarantee that if we stayed in then we wouldn't get sucked in to the appalling growth figures seen across Europe?
The ones that we are at the bottom of?
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
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Neither of which show us bottom of the EU for growth. The first shows in 2017 we were the same as France (not leaving the EU), and there were 3 other countries below us (also not leaving the EU). The second shows the UK grew at a similar rate to the EZ last quarter. Given the EZ rate is an average, and I'll assume you know how averages work, hence we can't be bottom of that one either.

So despite the massive uncertainty and prophecies of doom, the UK economy is actually proving remarkably resilient. From what I can see, the only outcome which can jeopardize that is an unprepared for No Deal.

However if we don't take the EFTA/EEA option, we are a bit retarded.
 

Wij

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Neither of which show us bottom of the EU for growth. The first shows in 2017 we were the same as France (not leaving the EU), and there were 3 other countries below us (also not leaving the EU). The second shows the UK grew at a similar rate to the EZ last quarter. Given the EZ rate is an average, and I'll assume you know how averages work, hence we can't be bottom of that one either.

So despite the massive uncertainty and prophecies of doom, the UK economy is actually proving remarkably resilient. From what I can see, the only outcome which can jeopardize that is an unprepared for No Deal.

However if we don't take the EFTA/EEA option, we are a bit retarded.
24th out of 27.

Also look at the G7 growth rate that UK had been around the top of for a few years. Last couple, bottom.

We physically cannot prepare for no deal in March next year. It is way too late.

We haven't yet left. The UK economy is just reacting to a lack of investment at the moment. Even so, in a booming world economy in the last couple of years, the UK's growth has been slowing where most of the world has not.

(Italy is a basket-case anyway, I know)
 

Wij

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Having said that if they had a rethink for EFTA & EEA I could live with it.
 

Yoni

Cockb@dger / Klotehommel www.lhw.photography
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Sorry @Bodhi visiting is not the same as living... additionally how do you know that I am restricted to Europe although I only have lived for any length in time in the EU, I went to school in The USA and travel out of the EU as often as I can with work and on vacation. I am very happy for you that you are not embarrassed good for you! I am but surely that is obvious I have already stated that I only use my GB passport to skip queues at the airport...

As for standards I do not remember stating all EU cities but many, however I do live in Scandinavia although I am in Paris frequently and think that although the city is still pretty dirty it isn’t getting worse.... UK trains are laughable even compared with NS and RT...
 

Embattle

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The same useless insulting drivel isn't worth the effort to produce the same reply that ultimately turns out to be rather pointless as well since we just end up repeating the process again and again.

All credit to Bodhi however for actually trying to engage but I'll continue with the quick and easy method of rating and as someone on this forum already well knows questioning my reasons/intelligence/allegiance really won't bother me nor bait me out in to said pointless discussion.
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
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Sorry @Bodhi visiting is not the same as living... additionally how do you know that I am restricted to Europe although I only have lived for any length in time in the EU, I went to school in The USA and travel out of the EU as often as I can with work and on vacation. I am very happy for you that you are not embarrassed good for you! I am but surely that is obvious I have already stated that I only use my GB passport to skip queues at the airport...

As for standards I do not remember stating all EU cities but many, however I do live in Scandinavia although I am in Paris frequently and think that although the city is still pretty dirty it isn’t getting worse.... UK trains are laughable even compared with NS and RT...

Sorry Yoni but your first point applies just as much to your opinions of the UK as mine of Europe.
 

Job

The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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We'll be fine as long as we dont vote Labour in.

When you have the Labour MP for Birkenhead telling people not to strike at Cammel Lairds because the firm loses orders..and they have..two large orders pulled as soon as the placards went up.
Labour are a much greater threat to Britains economy.
 

Gwadien

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We'll be fine as long as we dont vote Labour in.

When you have the Labour MP for Birkenhead telling people not to strike at Cammel Lairds because the firm loses orders..and they have..two large orders pulled as soon as the placards went up.
Labour are a much greater threat to Britains economy.

Doesn't make sense.
 

Job

The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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Yes you could be right there.

I meant to say even the local labour MP can see the cancer of Corbyns approach.
 

Gwadien

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Yes you could be right there.

I meant to say even the local labour MP can see the cancer of Corbyns approach.

Yeah man, companies pulling contracts because their supplier's workforce goes on strike, seems dodgy as shit to me.

Almost like they're threatening the employees for standing up for theirselves.

Some suggest that one of the reasons why inequality is so high at the minute is because our trade unions are weak.
 

caLLous

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Considering the same poll suggested more we're in favour of No Deal than May's Deal how far do you want to take that idea?
May said her deal was the will of the people, and I was sarcastically pointing out that that doesn't seem to be the case.
 

Gwadien

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I think it's utterly stupid to suggest that the economy won't immediately tank post Brexit; it's uncertainty and the markets are bound to react, it's whether we can recover and go beyond what we had with the EU and what positives/detriments to society it will bring with it.
 

Bodhi

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DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
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I think it's utterly stupid to suggest that the economy won't immediately tank post Brexit; it's uncertainty and the markets are bound to react, it's whether we can recover and go beyond what we had with the EU and what positives/detriments to society it will bring with it.

Average time it takes the Americans to do a trade deal (and they have the apparatus and expertise to do them, the UK does not)...45 months. This is why no deal would totally fuck the UK over, because its not a problem that can be fixed in five minutes, and a Britain without trade deals inevitably has the weakest possible hand going into any negotiation.

The May deal is shite but no deal is immeasurably worse, and if the May deal gets over the line, at least there's the hope of a stable base to work from; no deal and it would like trying to fix the plumbing while your house is burning down.
 

Bodhi

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Aye we'll struggle to trade with our biggest single trading partner without a deal, sounds well difficult.
 

dysfunction

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Yes because trading with tarrifs and restricted movement of goods is just as good as free trade and free movement of goods.

That's why companies are not stock piling...Oh wait .
 

Job

The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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Obviously we wont just go off a cliff..thats in no ones interest and the EU would be shooting itself in the foot by allowing that to happen, their economy would also take a significant hit.
People are acting like they havent got a huge amount to lose as well, the deal will be rejected and the EU will have to budge.
These trade deals are so entrenched that anything except keeping them as they are is ridiculous.
Its all down to how far we can push the EU towards their own cliff edge....the same deal for the UK without the membership.
I'd be happy to pay the EU what we do now to grease some palms.
Sort of pay NOT to be in the EU.

The single most important thing is to remove ourselves from the EUs lunacy of its empire dreams.

The EU..not Europe, another political construct that is proving to be a bag of shit.
 

Ormorof

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Obviously we wont just go off a cliff..thats in no ones interest and the EU would be shooting itself in the foot by allowing that to happen

You are assuming the eu will have an influence on uk parliament and parties intent on cutting off nose to spite face
 

DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
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Obviously we wont just go off a cliff..thats in no ones interest and the EU would be shooting itself in the foot by allowing that to happen, their economy would also take a significant hit.
People are acting like they havent got a huge amount to lose as well, the deal will be rejected and the EU will have to budge.
These trade deals are so entrenched that anything except keeping them as they are is ridiculous.
Its all down to how far we can push the EU towards their own cliff edge....the same deal for the UK without the membership.
I'd be happy to pay the EU what we do now to grease some palms.
Sort of pay NOT to be in the EU.

The single most important thing is to remove ourselves from the EUs lunacy of its empire dreams.

The EU..not Europe, another political construct that is proving to be a bag of shit.

Once again, because maths obviously isn't your strongpoint; relative to the size of its economy, the risk to the EU is far lower than the risk to the UK even though the actual € value is larger on the EU side. The UK is in a far, far weaker position than the EU, not only because of direct trade between the UK and EU, but because the UK would also lose all its other multilateral agreements that it currently gets via the EU, while the EU would not.

The EU can genuinely afford to take the hit. It wouldn't be pretty, especially for Ireland, the Netherlands and a couple of others, but the EU has the power to balance that out and spread the pain somewhat. The UK does not.
 

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