Politics Coronavirus

dysfunction

I am a FH squatter
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
9,153
I wrote practically.

Do you understand what that means.
And no I dont think its reqd because it massively damages society and confidence in government that far outweighs the small effect on deaths it will provide.
The hospitals will be too full of Covid patients to deal with anything else so deaths will go up for other things.
Some hospitals are already at like 150% of their proper capacity
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,252
His point is sort of correct, but he's a bit too dumb to be able to express it in a way that doesn't look like a wanker said it (because a wanker did).

Translation: Massive lockdown is required, scientists tend to be right, I don't like it.

This is actually Job conceding that scientists tend to be correct when they call for the necessary things. It's government that won't do owt (or do too little to late because they're scared of @Bodhi).
Probably more because they are trying to delay the massive collateral damage that lockdowns entail, for very little benefit.

Scientists have already started looking at this, and initial impressions aren't good:

 

Moriath

I am a FH squatter
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 23, 2003
Messages
14,879
Probably more because they are trying to delay the massive collateral damage that lockdowns entail, for very little benefit.

Scientists have already started looking at this, and initial impressions aren't good:

Tell that to australia who have used lock downs to virtually remove the virus. They did it right. They had a small out break and locked down for 3 days till they knew it was controlled.
 

DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
17,048
So Whittys bigging up a severe lockdown.
Once a week outing, no talking in public etc, banding numbers like 30K in hospital with covid compared to 18K at April peak.
But thats 'with' covid, not rushed to hospital with breathing problems and the massive increase in testing is bound to increase that number.

Anyway the Mail started predicting yesterday and now its looking more likely, they are rarely wrong about these kinds of government decisions, so I think were looking at practically martial law over the next few weeks if numbers dont start dropping.
None of that is practically enforceable; especially in a country that doesn't require ID. So it would just be ignored. Doesn't mean the Tories won't try, because brains have proven to be in short supply in Cabinet (I think they just share one), but everyone, including the police, would just ignore it.
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,252
Tell that to australia who have used lock downs to virtually remove the virus. They did it right. They had a small out break and locked down for 3 days till they knew it was controlled.
You might have to explain to me how a lockdown for 3 days is going to help for a virus with an infection cycle of 14 days, and also what season it is over there and what happens to respiratory illnesses in summer.
 

Moriath

I am a FH squatter
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 23, 2003
Messages
14,879
You might have to explain to me how a lockdown for 3 days is going to help for a virus with an infection cycle of 14 days, and also what season it is over there and what happens to respiratory illnesses in summer.
It gives test and trace time to find all those that interacted with those while not spreading the virus unknowingly.
once the tracing people had time to work while people were in their houses the lockdown could be released. With then just the isolating people left inside.
see?
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,252
It gives test and trace time to find all those that interacted with those while not spreading the virus unknowingly.
once the tracing people had time to work while people were in their houses the lockdown could be released. With then just the isolating people left inside.
see?
Asymptomatic transmission isn't really a thing, so yes, I do see. It's a lockdown for lockdown's sake.
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,252
Evidence.

Meta-analysis of 54 studies with 77,758 participants found chance an infected person will infect one or more people at home is 18% if symptomatic & CLOSE TO 0% if asymptomatic [0.7% incl. possible attribution errors]
//edit - there's also one knocking around studying 10 million people, but it's from China and..erm...yeah :)
 
Last edited:

Scouse

Job-worshipper and all round follower of cunts.
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
28,902
Low confidence due to only 4 studies including asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.

Important questions remain regarding household spread of SARS-CoV-2. Chief among them is the infectiousness of children to their household contacts and the infectiousness of asymptomatic, mildly ill, and severely ill index cases.
It would, obviously, be lower (you're not coughing all over everyone). But I don't think you can seriously rule it out as "not a thing".
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,252
Low confidence due to only 4 studies including asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic.



It would, obviously, be lower (you're not coughing all over everyone). But I don't think you can seriously rule it out as "not a thing".
That's why I didn't. I said it wasn't really a thing, so may happen in very rare occasions but really isn;t worth designing policy around. Just make sure people with symptoms isolate and sort out bloody care homes and we've broken the back of this. All that seems to have gone out the window though, with muh lockdown - which is clearly working a treat.

Kind of like Japan did.

 

dysfunction

I am a FH squatter
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
9,153
That's also prob not based on the new variants that are spreading quicker
 

Talivar

Resident Freddy
Joined
Jan 27, 2004
Messages
2,026
I live in Grimsby , North East Lincolnshire and on the link someon posted my area is classed as sidney park area and now has only 53!!
 

DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
17,048
Ireland now has the highest 7-day rate on the planet. :(

We were doing so well and people just went nuts because of Christmas
 

Scouse

Job-worshipper and all round follower of cunts.
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
28,902
So Christmas nutters also fucked my area over

Doesn't look like the graphs don't show that m8. There's steady rises from early december. (In fact, I'm suspicious of the data - I think it's probably better as long term trends rather than specific date data).
 

Deebs

Chief Arsewipe
Staff member
Moderator
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 11, 1997
Messages
9,075,460
Doesn't look like the graphs don't show that m8. There's steady rises from early december. (In fact, I'm suspicious of the data - I think it's probably better as long term trends rather than specific date data).
Eh?

Between the 23rd and 30th December there is a sharp spike for North Town.
 

Scouse

Job-worshipper and all round follower of cunts.
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
28,902
Eh?

Between the 23rd and 30th December there is a sharp spike for North Town.
Factor in the time lag delay from contracting the virus to when a test can give a positive result - it can take three weeks for people from first infection to produce enough antibodies to be even detectable by a covid test.

Xmas infections should start showing up in tests being performed about now - so those spikes are bugger all to do with xmas.
 

dysfunction

I am a FH squatter
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
9,153
Factor in the time lag delay from contracting the virus to when a test can give a positive result - it can take three weeks for people from first infection to produce enough antibodies to be even detectable by a covid test.

Xmas infections should start showing up in tests being performed about now - so those spikes are bugger all to do with xmas.
No the test isnt testing antibodies it's testing for the virus in your system so it's pretty immediate.,
I had a positive test within days of knowing I had been infected.

There could be a delay due to the incubation period of 10 days or so.
 

Scouse

Job-worshipper and all round follower of cunts.
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
28,902
I guess it depends on the type of test - but yes, incubation period still needs to be factored in.
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,252
Factor in the time lag delay from contracting the virus to when a test can give a positive result - it can take three weeks for people from first infection to produce enough antibodies to be even detectable by a covid test.

Xmas infections should start showing up in tests being performed about now - so those spikes are bugger all to do with xmas.
I think you have massively misunderstood how these tests work tbh. The PCR test doesn't detect antibodies, it detects the virus itself - either viable or old fragments (hence those people getting stuck in Italy for weeks on end waiting to test negative), and it normally takes 5 - 7 days after infection to test positive. The anitbody tests are a little bit different.

There's also a very good reason why we are seeing all the current spikes - the new variant may have a little to do with it, however the overall driver is the time of year it is. We are smack bang in peak respiratory disease season and this tends to be the busiest time of the year for the NHS anyway. Worth having a read of the below, a look from some Swiss scientists on the yearly prevalence of the other 4 endemic Hcovs, which you would expect to be mirrored in the prevalance of CV19.




Look familiar?

However it's clearly becuase someone drove 5.2 miles for a walk in the country, nothing to do with a virus doing what a virus does.
 

Scouse

Job-worshipper and all round follower of cunts.
FH Subscriber
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
28,902
I think you have massively misunderstood how these tests work tbh.
Not really, they've all got their downsides or lag times. And the point I was making was that a spike starting 23rd December wasn't "christmas loonies" or however @Deebs referred to them :)

To be fair though - the salient point in that article is that negative tests shouldn't be an excuse for risky behaviour (because of their unreliability). But that's exactly what they are being used for.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 3)

Top Bottom