Politics Coronavirus

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
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It's not a given.

And it's a good headline. We've confirmed what we've suspected. Which is great. :)
Given how rare reinfections has been most sensible people had worked that out a while ago, but good to see PHE have caught up.
 

Job

The Carl Pilkington of Freddyshouse
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I wad trying to post that one.
At least its answered one of my questions, theyve also note some London boroughs are approaching herd immunity, so every asymptomatic infection is also better than a vaccine.

The net is closing in on an uncomfortable conclusion.
 

dysfunction

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I wad trying to post that one.
At least its answered one of my questions, theyve also note some London boroughs are approaching herd immunity, so every asymptomatic infection is also better than a vaccine.

The net is closing in on an uncomfortable conclusion.
What uncomfortable conclusion?
That we are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel?
 

Scouse

Job-worshipper and all round follower of cunts.
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so every asymptomatic infection is also better than a vaccine.
Uncontrolled and invisible super-spreaders are better than a controlled vaccine rollout?!

Wowzers.

Explain please @Job. In detail. (And maybe don't duck this question in your usual spineless fashion).
 

Tay

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//edit - there's also one knocking around studying 10 million people, but it's from China and..erm...yeah :)
And both based on the original seemingly not anywhere near as transmissible and the latest variant.
 

Tay

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Factor in the time lag delay from contracting the virus to when a test can give a positive result - it can take three weeks for people from first infection to produce enough antibodies to be even detectable by a covid test.

Xmas infections should start showing up in tests being performed about now - so those spikes are bugger all to do with xmas.
That presumes people that have it also have symptoms..because if they dont they wont go and get a test, 'apparently' a 1/3 of folks dont exhibit any symptoms and therefore wont seek help or get tested, why would they?

So if the entire country got infected in one fell swoop 20million wouldnt get tested. The stats would say only 40 million caught it. Completely unrealistic obviously, but worth bearing in mind when looking at stats.
 

Tay

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nice to know that all the old codgers we've all given up a year of our lives for to protect are going to get their holidays

Thats the BBC trying to stay relevant, if we still have lockdowns, nobody is going on holiday anywhere. These folks probably have disposable cash and are hedging their bets trying to get in early, the like of TUI are rubbing their hands together because they don't need to get a loan cuz some OAP just bailed them out. I honestly cant see much happening this year tbh.
 

Raven

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Not until the Autumn at least imo. I can't even see it being a 100% normal xmas this year either, though hopefully we will be able to see family.
 

Tay

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I think the reason we haven't gone down the masks outdoors route is that there is no real evidence they will have any effect - the evidence base is even weaker than it is for masks indoors. I follow Professor Dingwall from SAGE on Twitter, as he's been one of the more reasonable voices throughout this, and he posted this the other day on masks outdoors:

View: https://twitter.com/rwjdingwall/status/1348642511565320193?s=20


He also restates the SAGE view on masks in general in the replies - weak evidence of a small potential benefit, but more likely to be a placebo. Hasn't transferred to the rhetoric sadly, but that is their view.

Interestingly on compliance, Sky posted a survey that showed people were complying more this time round than in March, so I do suspect people's views on compliance are like their views on driving - everyone thinks they're better at it than everyone else :)

The emptying hospitals out into care homes in March is one of the biggest, most deadly clusterfucks I have ever seen frankly - I've seen figures from 15k to 25k deaths attributed to this. Add in 35k non-COVID excess deaths and it's starting to look like the response to the virus was more deadly than the virus itself. I'd heard rumours this had started again, but I note that Hancock was talking about using hotels for this - this would make sense, but what would make even more sense, is to use some of the Private Healthcare capacity that is pretty much just sitting on the shelf, and could easily be used for non-electives/recovery, and would take some of the strain off the frontline workers. Doesn't look like that is an option sadly, because politics:


Gotta say I have massive respect for the front line NHS workers, but the senior management can go fuck themselves, frankly.
I'd personally like to see some formal research on it, anecdotal evidence sucks. It just seems pretty straight forward that the virus goes from human to human (yes there will be other cases from objects, door handles whatever) but to get the viral loading required, and this is what Dingwall has referred to, you really need to human to human transfer. So, if as he says the 'chances' of catching it are so slim wtf have we got at least many thousands dead and hospitals full of covid cases. They didnt just magic it.
Even in the abstract it mentions the importance of airborne transmission as being controversial and and the probability of airborne transmission is still uncertain. Not a great start to a paper.

Again, this is based on the original variant, which by comparison seems significantly less transmissible than that of the new one.

With all science you can throw numbers around as much as you like but it doesnt change the fact that the NHS is close to melt down, with or without airborne transmission.
 

Tay

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Is covid just doing a world tour?

Of course, and clown leaderships in places like Brazil are responsible for it. I think the last time I checked the Brazilian PM had caught CV19 3 times ^^

The issues with letting this virus run unchecked as places like Brazil did (govts fault, not the peoples) is that each times increases the likelihood of a mutation, sooner or later if this isnt stopped it'll mutate its to something much worse that CV19.

The original idea of getting heard immunity wasnt a bad one per se until they realised too many people simply wouldnt make it through, AND more importantly antibody memory doesnt seem to last too long, so much like the flu you can catch it again. Just today they were mentioned it 'could' be up to 5 months.

Shutting borders now? Fuck me, the horse bolted a year ago ffs.
 

Scouse

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Even in the abstract it mentions the importance of airborne transmission as being controversial and and the probability of airborne transmission is still uncertain. Not a great start to a paper.
I think it it actually is a great start to a paper.

They're saying "we don't know for sure". And if that's the case, that's the case.
 

Tay

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I think it it actually is a great start to a paper.

They're saying "we don't know for sure". And if that's the case, that's the case.
They are saying we don't have a clue but thanks for the cash you gave us to write this stuff. Next..
 

DaGaffer

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nice to know that all the old codgers we've all given up a year of our lives for to protect are going to get their holidays

Speaking as one of those (technically) "old codgers" I'd be very dubious about booking anything yet. We actually have our ferry and gite booking in France carried over from last year to this summer but I'm still very doubtful it'll happen, because I have the sneaking suspicion that "40-60 in good health" are going to be just about the last group vaccinated.
 

Aoami

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Speaking as one of those (technically) "old codgers" I'd be very dubious about booking anything yet. We actually have our ferry and gite booking in France carried over from last year to this summer but I'm still very doubtful it'll happen, because I have the sneaking suspicion that "40-60 in good health" are going to be just about the last group vaccinated.
The headline says 50+ but the article talks mainly about 65+ which is more the age group I was referring to. Agree with your sentiments.
 

Tay

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The headline says 50+ but the article talks mainly about 65+ which is more the age group I was referring to. Agree with your sentiments.
Maybe they will have solved the vaccine shortage by then ^^

But bear in mind, conditions such as diet control type 2 diabetes, higher blood pressure, hypertension etc etc all bump you up the list a lot. Then of course when you hit 55+ you are more likely to suffer from 'underlying health conditions' .
 

Moriath

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Maybe they will have solved the vaccine shortage by then ^^

But bear in mind, conditions such as diet control type 2 diabetes, higher blood pressure, hypertension etc etc all bump you up the list a lot. Then of course when you hit 55+ you are more likely to suffer from 'underlying health conditions' .
*runs off to gorge on donuts and chips to get higher up the vaccine list

lol
 

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
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I think it it actually is a great start to a paper.

They're saying "we don't know for sure". And if that's the case, that's the case.
Was reading this a couple of weeks back on the same subject - well, the media's reporting of the same subject - very well written and highly amusing, about the most dangerous 3 words in the English Language - "we now know".


Loved this bit:

“Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
He's bang on about economists - and by extension epidemiologists as well - they successfully predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions :)
 

DaGaffer

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I am pretty sure it is.
Yeah it pretty much says that in the article. However, the last line caught my eye:

People with strong anti-vaccination beliefs may be protected under equality law, Ms Hill added
So anti-vaxxers are a protected class now? Stupidity is a human right? Brilliant.
 

Gwadien

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I fundamentally disagree with this:

bb

Surely this should be illegal?
Is it also illegal to deny somebody to come into your house to do some work if they aren't vaccinated?

I mean, I'm fairly sure carehomes are going to enforce vaccinations and people aren't going to get jobs unless they are, and rightly so. Why should it be different for other jobs where the staff may be in close contact with vulnerable people?
 

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