Politics Coronavirus

[Scouse]

So I'm an evidence denier for referring to the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine?

OK dude...

Deliberately ignoring the explanation for exactly this point I gave in my post.

Ok dude.

 

[Moriath]

So I'm an evidence denier for referring to the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine?

OK dude...

no. But there are many many different models. Some say higher some say lower. So anyone could produce a different number and say sage are wrong. Until its done its course we wont know which was right or closest. But sage take a number of studies and try and balance where they think it will be. Cebm have their own.

 

[Scouse]

no. But there are many many different models. Some say higher some say lower. So anyone could produce a different number and say sage are wrong. Until its done its course we wont know which was right or closest. But sage take a number of studies and try and balance where they think it will be. Cebm have their own.

This.

It's the whole point of SAGE.

But @Bodhi finds their expert assessment inconvenient. Like the IPCC.

 

[Ormorof]

I feel like their first problem is calling it evidence based medicine, isnt that just... Medicine?

Much like Democratic Peoples Republics, if you have to say it out loud it probably isnt true

(Disclaimer i have no idea if thats normal or not im just being a flippant twat on a Monday)

 

[Yoni]

Bozza is making it up in parliment - he stated that Sweden do not allow children over 15 to go back to school - that was before the summer..... now all children and young adults are back in education. It is the reason that region Uppsala has seen such an increase ie all the uni students living it up in their first weeks back...

 

[Bodhi]

no. But there are many many different models. Some say higher some say lower. So anyone could produce a different number and say sage are wrong. Until its done its course we wont know which was right or closest. But sage take a number of studies and try and balance where they think it will be. Cebm have their own.

Except CEBM don't produce Computer Models - as they are not evidence. They are predictions, based upon initial assumptions. What the article I posted did, was look at these predictions based upon the data we already have, and found them to be massively alarmist, and even more concerningly, 3 weeks out of date.

Sorry, but if you're going to take the massive step of putting the country under house arrest, with all the collateral damage that it brings, there better be some pretty strong evidence behind it. In this case, there just isn't - in fact cases are starting to drop off already.

 

[Bodhi]

This.

It's the whole point of SAGE.

But @Bodhi finds their expert assessment inconvenient. Like the IPCC.

Not inconvenient. However more than a few scientists have found their "expert" assessment to be wrong.

Like Dr Spector from KCL, for example:

COVID rates are not surging

According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the UK are continuing to steadily increase and not surging as other sources have suggested this week.

covid.joinzoe.com

 

[SilverHood]

Considering they spend all summer rescuing twats in trainers that have fallen off Crib Goch then I consider that my contribution to furthering the lifespans of idiots.

Personally - I'd suggest a minimum £1000 fine for anyone that gets rescued off a mountain whilst not wearing the correct PPE for the conditions - proper shoes, warm layered clothing, etc.

I'm all for helping people who help themselves, but just like a fat tax - if you're an idiot you should contribute a bit more to society's costs to keep you alive

I agree, wasting emergency resources should come at a cost.

The Danish coastguard used to have that issue with tourists on the west coast. The difference between high and low tide on the beaches is sometimes over a mile, and foreign (especially German) tourists would climb on their inflatables and fall asleep, then wake up many miles out to sea. They started sending the rescue bill to the people they rescued, and their insurance companies, and it more or less stopped.

 

[Moriath]

Except CEBM don't produce Computer Models - as they are not evidence. They are predictions, based upon initial assumptions. What the article I posted did, was look at these predictions based upon the data we already have, and found them to be massively alarmist, and even more concerningly, 3 weeks out of date.

Sorry, but if you're going to take the massive step of putting the country under house arrest, with all the collateral damage that it brings, there better be some pretty strong evidence behind it. In this case, there just isn't - in fact cases are starting to drop off already.

Initial assumption can be just as wrong as any model. They are predicting the future no? On something we havent seen before. So its a guesstimate with the info they have at hand like the models are just a different way of doing it.

 

[Moriath]

Not inconvenient. However more than a few scientists have found their "expert" assessment to be wrong.

Like Dr Spector from KCL, for example:

COVID rates are not surging

According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the UK are continuing to steadily increase and not surging as other sources have suggested this week.

covid.joinzoe.com

prediction is difficult. Easy to say told you so like starmer is at the moment, after the event

 

[Gwadien]

A teacher at my place has got it.

She was going to retire last year :\

 

[Moriath]

Twitter showing posts of people quoting the magna carter to try and keep their shops open. Lol

 

[Deebs]

Twitter showing posts of people quoting the magna carter to try and keep their shops open. Lol

I have posters of Article 61 I can sell you for 1 quid each.........

 

[Yoni]

So getiting harder here - infections up and a new restriction that can be legally enforced which is restaurants can not have parties larger than 8. 7 regions accounting for a large area of the country with tougher recommendations. No masks and no policed lockdown however.

 

[Yoni]

For all the money on this earth I would not ever want to be Vallance or Whitty (or Tegnell for that matter) - none of them can do right for doing wrong.

 

[Moriath]

For all the money on this earth I would not ever want to be Vallance or Whitty (or Tegnell for that matter) - none of them can do right for doing wrong.

Ofcourse. Because its a new thing. They are going on best predictions. Therefore everyone is going to disagree with them if they have a vested interest in something that is negatively affected by their choices. And because its unknown there are plenty of accredited people there with plausible alternatives. But going with one of them would leave just as many other people affected.
a lot of the badgering of tories is because of this. It would be the same for any party in power at this time.
we have to trust them and see if what they recommended helps. Otherwise we are all lost.

 

[Yoni]

I cant agree with you on the government thing - the Tories have royally fucked up.. They have also seriously damanged their reputation in the Union buy not supporting an extension to furlough until little England were forced into their new lockdown and they missed a good window for locking down over half-term. Before you go there yes yes lots of counties in Europe are suffering but again England is slow off the mark and their results are not improving - it is like the UK government have not learned a thing apart from potentially having enough PPE (to be seen). Today I watched as Vallance and Whitty took a grilling from all sides - it was quite hard to watch although necessary so that your leaders can make an informed decision tomorrow. What was clear for me was that the UK citizens need a set of rules to live by - not just for 3 weeks but for the forseeable future.... All this chopping and changing is confusing to the whole country and this is becoming evident in the numbers.

 

[Moriath]

I cant agree with you on the government thing - the Tories have royally fucked up.. They have also seriously damanged their reputation in the Union buy not supporting an extension to furlough until little England were forced into their new lockdown and they missed a good window for locking down over half-term. Before you go there yes yes lots of counties in Europe are suffering but again England is slow off the mark and their results are not improving - it is like the UK government have not learned a thing apart from potentially having enough PPE (to be seen). Today I watched as Vallance and Whitty took a grilling from all sides - it was quite hard to watch although necessary so that your leaders can make an informed decision tomorrow. What was clear for me was that the UK citizens need a set of rules to live by - not just for 3 weeks but for the forseeable future.... All this chopping and changing is confusing to the whole country and this is becoming evident in the numbers.

Furlough is more generous than the schemes in the other eu countries isnt it? From what i understand the scheme that was supposed to be used in the tiers was more inline with what germany and such had done.

the big issue with the uk is the devolved governments doing different things. They should have all gotten together and been in unison.
the trouble is that they are trying to balance lives vs commerce. Trying to keep things open until the last second possible.
an impossible thing in this time. Nothing will keep everyone happy.

yes the intricacies of ppe and all could have been done better. But now we have getting on for similar cases in hospitals and we have no reporting of lack of ppe. So i guess the supply is now working.

 

[Yoni]

No it is not - EU countries have generous schemes in place already. The schemes are quite similar and ensure that employees do not recieve a big drop in salary. EG in Sweden (German is similar) if you go to 20% working you receive as an employee 97% of your salary up to 4k GBP per month.....Currently I am on 80% working and before tax my salary is reduced by 4% - after tax this is negligable. As I earn over the threshold the company recieve 15% of 4k GBP - the employee gives up 4% and the organisation pays 1% of that.... in time the employee works 20% less. In many European countries their schemes were extended to end of the year minimum...

It doesn't matter Moriath the Tories and the Conservative and Union Party and yet they have decided to service middle england before Wales and N Ireland (who did the right thing).... there are NO excuses here..

 

[Moriath]

No it is not - EU countries have generous schemes in place already. The schemes are quite similar and ensure that employees do not recieve a big drop in salary. EG in Sweden (German is similar) if you go to 20% working you receive as an employee 97% of your salary up to 4k GBP per month.....Currently I am on 80% working and before tax my salary is reduced by 4% - after tax this is negligable. As I earn over the threshold the company recieve 15% of 4k GBP - the employee gives up 4% and the organisation pays 1% of that.... in time the employee works 20% less. In many European countries their schemes were extended to end of the year minimum...

It doesn't matter Moriath the Tories and the Conservative and Union Party and yet they have decided to service middle england before Wales and N Ireland (who did the right thing).... there are NO excuses here..

But here you have 0 working and 80% wage. Which is more than the examples above.

 

[Yoni]

We are all working or redundant it is the point of the scheme - if activity is low you are on 20%. In the event You are made redundant in Swe at a basic level you receive a package from your company after which for the next 200 days 80% of your salary up to 40k sek per month and the if you earn more you pay a little more insurance and receive up to 80% of your salary to a limit of c. 85k sek per month.... remind me again what you receive in the UK if you are made redundant?

so if I was made redundant I would get 2 years and 50 days (holiday saved 50 days). Then job security for 200 days at 80% - hopefully in that time I will have a new job..

Remember we are not locked down in Sweden those who can work from home do so and those that can’t fit to work in a COVID safe environment.

 

[Moriath]

We are all working or redundant it is the point of the scheme - if activity is low you are on 20%. In the event You are made redundant in Swe at a basic level you receive a package from your company after which for the next 200 days 80% of your salary up to 40k sek per month and the if you earn more you pay a little more insurance and receive up to 80% of your salary to a limit of c. 85k sek per month.... remind me again what you receive in the UK if you are made redundant?

so if I was made redundant I would get 2 years and 50 days (holiday saved 50 days). Then job security for 200 days at 80% - hopefully in that time I will have a new job..

Remember we are not locked down in Sweden those who can work from home do so and those that can’t fit to work in a COVID safe environment.

I know but in the uk under lockdown you dont have to work and get 80%. Scandi countries have great social security. But we were not talking about redundancy. Just preventing it.

 

[Aoami]

I know but in the uk under lockdown you dont have to work and get 80%. Scandi countries have great social security. But we were not talking about redundancy. Just preventing it.

I think the point is that furlough is necessary here because if you are made redundant you're fucked, unlike the Nordics for instance, who all have a similar scheme to what Yoni has mentioned. I know in Denmark they have a similar furlough scheme to here as well, 75% salary.

 

[Yoni]

My actual point was that furlough was only extended in Wales and N Ireland when little England needed it - which is a big issue.... If you are made redundant in UK you are truly fucked unlike many European countries, not just the Nordics.

 

[Gwadien]

Government said that teachers that are vulnerable should work at home but;

"All other staff should continue to attend work, including those living in a household with someone who is clinically extremely vulnerable."

Wow

 

[Scouse]

My actual point was that furlough was only extended in Wales and N Ireland when little England needed it - which is a big issue.... If you are made redundant in UK you are truly fucked unlike many European countries, not just the Nordics.

Yeah. It's funny - when I lived in England it was very easy to ignore this sort of stuff. But living in Wales (although it doesn't apply to me) - you can see the unfairness starkly.

It's this sort of stuff that leads to independence votes. Wonder what @Big G would say about it.

 

[Raven]

Bank of England boss pledges to do 'everything we can'

Policymakers vote to pump an extra £150bn into the economy as a second lockdown in England begins.

www.bbc.co.uk

Here is an idea, use that 150 billion and pay it directly to people that have found themselves out of work. Not give it to the fucking banks, which is what will happen.

Fuck the banks, they have plenty of cash stockpiled.

 

[Scouse]

Bank of England boss pledges to do 'everything we can'

Policymakers vote to pump an extra £150bn into the economy as a second lockdown in England begins.

www.bbc.co.uk

Here is an idea, use that 150 billion and pay it directly to people that have found themselves out of work. Not give it to the fucking banks, which is what will happen.

Fuck the banks, they have plenty of cash stockpiled.

And they magic it out of thin air by creating loans too.

Keanes said bury it in the ground all over the country so people could do work with get a chance to win big.

Or they can just give everyone a couple of grand. At the end of the day with rent and mortgage holidays a couple of grand goes a long way in home heating and food.

If you can't make that work during lockdown and christmas, then your lifestyle is too grandiose.

 

[fettoken]

Are you guys doing alright over in Britannia? No food-shortage crisis or such/problems paying bills?

 

[Raven]

Not been anywhere to notice We get our food delivered atm