Politics Coronavirus

[Bodhi]

Peak infection rate - with lockdown doing it's job.

Which is kind of obvious, no?

A global lockdown, designed to stop infection happening, stopping infections? Who'd have thunk it!

You can see it in that graph - exponential acceleration of growth, lockdown hits and you see the rate of increase in deaths (and therefore infections) dramatically slow.

You can see it in that graph. You don't even need to look at the numbers.


It utterly boggles my mind that it's not blindingly obvious to you, and that you give priority to problems our solution creates rather than the critical problem it's helping to solve.

Yes m8. It's entirely obvious from the graphs I posted that Lockdown did it's job - at least 5 days before we locked down. That's just how effective lockdown is!

Must admit I also never thought I'd see the day when you trusted a graph from a media source over that produced by some scientists who know what they're talking about - I'm guessing you only trust the science when it backs up your view of the world.

 

[Bodhi]

UK death rate:


View: https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1268311384959451138

That really is an amazingly inept use of statistics right there - not entirely sure if it's incompetence or purposefully misleading. I'll give the BBC the benefit of the doubt in this case and suggest they are incompetent.

It's long been understood, that the "death" total reported each day is not a measure of all deaths in the last 24 hours - it is deaths reported.

So meaningless comparison is meaningless. How the fuck you can then link that back to Brexit is a bit beyond me.

 

[Bodhi]

Dying of neglect: the other Covid care home scandal | The Spectator

 

[Bodhi]

Oh and sorry to our Spanish expats, but their current figures are bullshit.


View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=20

 

[~Yuckfou~]

Oh and sorry to our Spanish expats, but their current figures are bullshit.


View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=20

Changing how figures are reported, wonder where they got that idea from?
Oh and from your article

"Despite the problems with the Spanish data, the country’s death counts are an order of magnitude smaller than those in Italy and UK."

 

[caLLous]

Seventeen deaths? Holy shit. That's much worse than the UK trying to sneak an extra 445 through in the small print the other day.

 

[Scouse]

Yes m8. It's entirely obvious from the graphs I posted that Lockdown did it's job - at least 5 days before we locked down. That's just how effective lockdown is!

Addressed that in my post. Yours was a single (old) modelled source that's clearly wrong - as borne out by actual measurement.

Must admit I also never thought I'd see the day when you trusted a graph from a media source over that produced by some scientists who know what they're talking about - I'm guessing you only trust the science when it backs up your view of the world.

You linked the Daily Fail and a non-peer reviewed regression model based on multiple assumptions made from data from a source that itself is based on multiple assumptions.

I'll let the above sit and sink in for a moment. Maybe you should re-read?


Don't fling "follow the science" at me without taking a critical eye at your own sources.

Regardless - the graph from the beeb was from medical sources. It's easy to count dead bodies.

 

[Moriath]

UK death rate:


View: https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1268311384959451138

Per million population. Or whatever he is doing that by. Not total.

doesnt take into account population density etc

 

[Bodhi]

Addressed that in my post. Yours was a single (old) modelled source that's clearly wrong - as borne out by actual measurement.



You linked the Daily Fail and a non-peer reviewed regression model based on multiple assumptions made from data from a source that itself is based on multiple assumptions.

I'll let the above sit and sink in for a moment. Maybe you should re-read?


Don't fling "follow the science" at me without taking a critical eye at your own sources.

Regardless - the graph from the beeb was from medical sources. It's easy to count dead bodies.

Sure, the original data was from medical sources, but the addition of the 7 day rolling average line gives the impression that death rates peaked after they actually did. But if you "easily" count dead bodies on the day they actually died you get:

More info here - COVID-19: Death Data in England – Update 3rd June - CEBM - And just in case you're struggling with the concept of primary and secondary sources, this data set is managed by the chap who the Daily Mail quoted earlier.

Now if you want to sit there with a straight face an suggest your analysis carries more weight than a tenured Professor from Oxford Uni, please do go ahead. I could use a laugh.

 

[Scouse]

Per million population. Or whatever he is doing that by. Not total.

Basic reading fail there @Moriath m8.

Those were the deaths "yesterday". One single day.

It's a clusterfuck.

 

[~Yuckfou~]

Sure, the original data was from medical sources, but the addition of the 7 day rolling average line gives the impression that death rates peaked after they actually did. But if you "easily" count dead bodies on the day they actually died you get:

More info here - COVID-19: Death Data in England – Update 3rd June - CEBM - And just in case you're struggling with the concept of primary and secondary sources, this data set is managed by the chap who the Daily Mail quoted earlier.

Now if you want to sit there with a straight face an suggest your analysis carries more weight than a tenured Professor from Oxford Uni, please do go ahead. I could use a laugh.

Do do you honestly believe that the UK has done a fine job handling the crisis?
It is a fact, whatever sources you use, that the death rate there is one of the highest per capita in the world.

 

[Bodhi]

Basic reading fail there @Moriath m8.

Those were the deaths "yesterday". One single day.

It's a clusterfuck.

No they weren't. If you're going to argue about stats, at least appraise yourself of what the stats actually represent first.

Those were deaths registered yesterday, not occurred. There is an almighty difference.

 

[Job]

Not bad considering we are the most densely populated in Europe, the fattest, most pissed and diabetic.

 

[Scouse]

At fucking best it's marginal @Bodhi - an "up to" three week lag from infection>death - and a graph that shows roughly 3 weeks from lockdown to dropping in cases.

So which is likely - the lockdown was a waste of time and deaths would have dropped anyway (magically) or the drop in deaths follow pretty closely the correct time lag from lockdown?


Yep. Pretty much the second. And regardless of how you want to spin it, people were restricting their behaviour before "official" lockdown came in - the weekend before I was in an empty centre parcs which had had a 60%+ cancellation rate and the weekend lockdown was announced I was sat in a pub at my new home, alone. When it would normally be fucking *rammed*.

Face it @Bodhi - you're talking shit.

 

[Scouse]

Those were deaths registered yesterday, not occurred. There is an almighty difference.

Almighty?

The sort of almighty that means that UK deaths don't top those of the rest of the EU combined?


Are you confusing Tory Party Policy with Sony by any chance? There seems to be a bit of blinkered fanboism going on here...

 

[Bodhi]

Do do you honestly believe that the UK has done a fine job handling the crisis?
It is a fact, whatever sources you use, that the death rate there is one of the highest per capita in the world.

I think it's far too early to tell tbh, considering how far behind Europe's equivalents of the ONS are. We were always going to get hit hard, given we have a highly mobile population, one of the biggest global transport hubs in Heathrow, an ageing and not entirely healthy population, and the perfect climate for respiratory illnesses to spread. We've avoided the scenes of overloaded hospitals in Italy, patients triaged in the car park, overflowing emergency hospitals and mass graves seen elsewhere, and the furlough scheme has been one of the better ones.

Our biggest issues were too slow to ramp up testing and screwing up care homes, both of which seem quite common in the West. If you want to argue we needed to learn more from SARS in 2003 you will get zero argument from me.

 

[Bodhi]

Almighty?

The sort of almighty that means that UK deaths don't top those of the rest of the EU combined?


Are you confusing Tory Party Policy with Sony by any chance? There seems to be a bit of blinkered fanboism going on here...

Blinkered fanboyism wanting data reported accurately? Yes of course. Let's ask the blinkered fanboy Sam Coates from Sky shall we?


View: https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1268504851555778560?s=20


So as a result, no, UK deaths don't top the rest of the EU combined. It is, how you say, fake news.

 

[caLLous]

If you watch the video on Newsnight...

...he made a point of pointing all of that out but the number of deaths reported yesterday in the UK is higher than the number of deaths reported yesterday in all EU nations. That's not "fake news". It's not very meaningful for the reasons listed but it's not "fake news".

 

[Yoni]

Changing how figures are reported, wonder where they got that idea from?
Oh and from your article

"Despite the problems with the Spanish data, the country’s death counts are an order of magnitude smaller than those in Italy and UK."

As at May 10th Spain had 17.2k deaths not accounted for the highest in the world (NYT) and deaths 72% above “normal” rate - UK 14k missing deaths and 56% above - they are both poor statistics and just like the UK, Spain are not being honest with their situation - neither are good - for Spain who closed apparently on good times there appears to be little understanding as to where it all went wrong - for the UK it appears clear that infection had taken hold before lockdown or the number of deaths would be lower - for Spain what are their conclusions?

 

[Bodhi]

At fucking best it's marginal @Bodhi - an "up to" three week lag from infection>death - and a graph that shows roughly 3 weeks from lockdown to dropping in cases.

So which is likely - the lockdown was a waste of time and deaths would have dropped anyway (magically) or the drop in deaths follow pretty closely the correct time lag from lockdown?


Yep. Pretty much the second. And regardless of how you want to spin it, people were restricting their behaviour before "official" lockdown came in - the weekend before I was in an empty centre parcs which had had a 60%+ cancellation rate and the weekend lockdown was announced I was sat in a pub at my new home, alone. When it would normally be fucking *rammed*.

Face it @Bodhi - you're talking shit.

Deaths follow a similar pattern in Sweden, where they didn't lock down.

But anyway, here's a good interview with another scientist, who also sees lockdown as being entirely pointless.

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19 - UnHerd

I can go all day with these by the way.

And if lockdown is so goddamned effective, how do you explain Two-thirds of patients recently hospitalized in NY had been staying home ?

 

[Moriath]

Basic reading fail there @Moriath m8.

Those were the deaths "yesterday". One single day.

It's a clusterfuck.

Ah ok. I see. . Im not convinced with the counting of ours let alone the rest of europe but thanks for the correction

 

[Scouse]

Of course it's meaningfull @caLLous - even if the ultimate figure was half that it would still be shockingly poor in a country of 66m people vs a region of 450m - nearly seven times more people....

 

[Bodhi]

He stated that weeks ago - he is just reiterating what has already been said for the international audiance - they made a mistake with the old people (I stated it here c. 20 pages ago or something).....

To be fair that's another example of the shocking reporting of the Swedish situation we have over here. It's almost as if they want Sweden to fail for not inflicting a 60 day free trial of Communism on everyone.

The reporting is so bad in fact, Tegnell had to issue a clarification:

https://www.thelocal.se/20200603/swedens-anders-tegnell-questioned-over-strategy-and-errors

Didn't get picked up by the media over here sadly. That would be inconvenient.

 

[Scouse]

I can go all day with these by the way.

All you'd be doing is a self-imposed circle jerk of self-justification in the face of known facts....

 

[Bodhi]

All you'd be doing is a self-imposed circle jerk of self-justification in the face of known facts....

I'd consider it more piercing an echo chamber of wrongness with some facts and science. I'm amazed you are so resistant to that - I guess you're used to "science" where all the activists scientists agree with each other.

 

[Scouse]

Didn't get picked up by the media over here sadly. That would be inconvenient.

I read that, and the response from the last person who held that role in Sweden who whilst at the beginning supported his actions now has changed her mind in the face of overwhelming evidence...

 

[Bodhi]

I read that, and the response from the last person who held that role in Sweden who whilst at the beginning supported his actions now has changed her mind in the face of overwhelming evidence...

Link?

 

[Yoni]

To be fair that's another example of the shocking reporting of the Swedish situation we have over here. It's almost as if they want Sweden to fail for not inflicting a 60 day free trial of Communism on everyone.

The reporting is so bad in fact, Tegnell had to issue a clarification:

https://www.thelocal.se/20200603/swedens-anders-tegnell-questioned-over-strategy-and-errors

Didn't get picked up by the media over here sadly. That would be inconvenient.

If I am honest non Swedish people quoting information without the facts (which are openly available) drives me bonkers. It is really clear for me what the issues have been here - I do not understand every word but I have ensured I know what and how it has happened. Tegnell is very arrogant and this is not great from a perception point of view and a little humility on his behalf would go a long way. If you look at the improvements he would make it is about protecting the over 70s. He stated that potentially it was unnecessary to close schools for older kids and Unis - not restrict more - which is not what is expected when they saw him say they could have done a few things differently.

I do not necessarily agree with how it all went down here however from a legal point to restrict the movement of Swedish citizens requires a constitutional change - this would still be in process today if the process had started in Dec (when the virus first arrived in Sweden). So blaming and shouting etc would not have made a difference all we can do is to follow the recommendations, restrict movements and be adult - when I look back I am ok with my behaviour - I have not been on public transport since late Feb early March and I do extensive shopping twice per month within walking distance from my home. If I think there are too many people I go elsewhere(not add to the issues) I don’t do the weekly shop on a Friday evening but early Saturday morning - I have stopped using online grocery shopping as my elderly neighbours could not get a time etc I only order booze online as Systembolaget have restricted their hours and there are always too many people there.

 

[Yoni]

I read that, and the response from the last person who held that role in Sweden who whilst at the beginning supported his actions now has changed her mind in the face of overwhelming evidence...

Yes because the over 70s were not protected - please complete facts not just the bits that suit your rhetoric

 

[Yoni]

Travel restrictions within Sweden are lifted from June 13 however it must be done responsibly or the recommendation will change back.

For out of country travel this is still restricted to 15 July - it is a recommendation however as it is given by UD (travel authorities) your insurance will be void if you do decide to leave the country - so countries stating that Swedish are not welcome at this time is irrelevant for Swedish people until they recommendation changes. Except for some who have summer houses in Eur (not many) this means Swedish people will holiday as normal - by going to their summer houses in Sweden \o/