Football World Cup 2014

[Chilly]

Betting has slowed down as my partner and I were both away (me glasto, him travelling in asia on the lash) and the group stages finishing. The knockouts are easier to model as the teams get bigger and better and more well studied so the potential for value tends to decrease.

However, my knockout stage bets were:

Netherlands v Mexico back netherlands for £800 @ 1.59 (won)
Germany v Algeria lay Germany for £115 @ 8 (lost)

And for the future:

Belgium v USA back USA for £410 @ 3.05

Total running P&L so far is £7,085.54

Still doing very well margin wise.

 

[Chilly]

Brazil v Columbia - no bet
France v Germany - no bet

 

[caLLous]

Good luck on the USA bet, I think Belgium are gonna snatch it myself.

Are you saying perma-no-bet for the quarters or you're just waiting until closer to the matches?

 

[Chilly]

It might be the odds change and make it worth punting.

 

[Chilly]

Although the problem with that is that there are several giant punters in that market who know all there is to know about betting on big football matches and they cant get their half million quid bets away until closer to kick off. Generally, it's not worth betting after they've got on, because they will have informed the market of their (very, very good) opinion and the market will have adjusted. Early prices, when you know how to spot the errors, tend to be best, as long as you only want a few grand on.

 

[AngelHeal]

Although the problem with that is that there are several giant punters in that market who know all there is to know about betting on big football matches and they cant get their half million quid bets away until closer to kick off. Generally, it's not worth betting after they've got on, because they will have informed the market of their (very, very good) opinion and the market will have adjusted. Early prices, when you know how to spot the errors, tend to be best, as long as you only want a few grand on.

So basicly your formula is this:
Don't allways bet on the best teams, but try a upset sometimes when the odds go crazy?

 

[ileks]

what the fuck was Song doing?

Match fixing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28102841

It actually might have been!

 

[DaGaffer]

he looks so fucking German.

So are we being racist towards the squareheads now?

 

[CorNokZ]

So are we being racist towards the squareheads now?

Says the inbred island viking trash

 

[DaGaffer]

Says the inbred island viking trash

Pah, Vikings never got to my people, my lot are far more inbred than that! (except for the Scottish, Irish, Huguenot, and suspiciously Mediterranean bits in the family gene pool)

 

[Chilly]

So basicly your formula is this:
Don't allways bet on the best teams, but try a upset sometimes when the odds go crazy?

I honestly don't care who wins a given game, I just bet on value odds when I detect them. If that means laying Brazil playing Nigeria (or some other "nailed on" pairing), then so be it.

 

[megadave]

If it wasn't for Messi I would have killed myself watching this. Why are Argentina so shit? Management or what?

 

[Ch3tan]

Switzerland impressing as much as Algeria. Why were argies tournament favorite again? So average.

 

[Calaen]

Because they have Messi. The rest are horrendous haha

 

[old.user4556]

They're balls. Even with Messi they're utterly average.

 

[Ch3tan]

Boooo, hiss.

 

[Corran]

meh, saw that coming

 

[Embattle]

Said it before and I'll keep saying it, they are an average team imo.

 

[old.user4556]

Pish game, Argies suck, Swiss got robbed / were unlucky.

Argies will get pumped next game.

 

[Olgaline]

Said it before and I'll keep saying it, they are an average team imo.

A bit like Brazil 2002 ?

 

[megadave]

Had money on full time draw/extra time Argentina but they were so shit i wanted Switzerland to win

 

[old.user4556]

'mon the States!

 

[Ch3tan]

Can't really lose, us soccer got a massive boost.

I think Belgium will edge this though, will close.

 

[old.user4556]

I think it's great for the US.

 

[Ch3tan]

Something not right about jurgen singing land of the free.

 

[Vladamir]

The England team could learn a thing or two from the mentality they have

 

[Calaen]

USA USA

 

[Ch3tan]

They look tired to me, Belgium seem to have this in the bag.

 

[old.user4556]

I dunno, it's quite even so far. Belgium have got some quality pace it seems. USA need to be a bit slicker though.

 

[old.user4556]

Hmm actually Belgium are looking threatening.