Football World Cup 2014

[Job]

Reality is he is just another Michael Owen.

Exactly my view, overrated, one trick pony, he scores well at ManU because of a well oiled team, outside his little bubble he's average.
Just look as Suarez, no excuses about operations, bangs them in for Liverpool and does the same under pressure for his national squad..he's in a different league to Rooney and if he's our best striker then god help us.

I didn't hear anyone mention that was Hodgson's last world cup, because it obviously is.

 

[soze]

The FA have to stop looking for someone else to blame. The number of foreign players in the premiership does not hurt English football. And if you do force 8 English players in then you just drag the standard of the league down and force the best players to leave. The FA need to totally change the way it works over here. They should invest in regional centers of excellence and stop clubs signing kids under 16. All young kids go to one of these centrally funded and run centers and are all trained to the same quality and standard. You can have competitions between centers ect. Then at 16 when a kid is ready to sign for a Professional Team that club can pay a development fee based on league and the standard of the player.

 

[Ch3tan]

@Madmaxx told you Rooney would get the blame....

 

[old.user4556]

Just a question.

How much money have Beckam, Bale, Rooney and Gerrard amassed between them over the years, and how much of that has gone back into investing in grass roots talent for the future?

I genuinely don't know, so perhaps they do, but the question of "who pays for talent investment" has me eyeballing the bank accounts of people who "made it".

 

[Raven]

Its not blame though is it? He was just part of an awful performance from the entire team.

 

[DaGaffer]

The FA have to stop looking for someone else to blame. The number of foreign players in the premiership does not hurt English football. And if you do force 8 English players in then you just drag the standard of the league down and force the best players to leave. The FA need to totally change the way it works over here. They should invest in regional centers of excellence and stop clubs signing kids under 16. All young kids go to one of these centrally funded and run centers and are all trained to the same quality and standard. You can have competitions between centers ect. Then at 16 when a kid is ready to sign for a Professional Team that club can pay a development fee based on league and the standard of the player.

The problem with all that is..."who benefits"? The FA absolutely does need to fundamentally change the way it does things, (and frankly the bunch of blazers running the place are not the men to do it), but, because the Premier League is a separate entity, the FA are (rightly) arguing the Prem doesn't pull its weight in funding all the grass roots stuff, because, let's face it the Prem doesn't gave a fuck about international football and actually wishes it would all go away. So as long as you have this dysfunctional relationship between the English governing bodies (which doesn't exist in Germany for example) its going to be very difficult to restructure the game from top to bottom,

I also think there's a separate, and much deeper issue in England to do with its wilfully anti-intellectual football culture (which is why there are so few English managers), because other countries don't actually have a problem with their players having two brain-cells to rub together.

 

[Gwadien]

http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/sp...-news/listen-chris-waddles-epic-world-7300310

Weird source, from FB, spot on though.

 

[soze]

The problem with all that is..."who benefits"? The FA absolutely does need to fundamentally change the way it does things, (and frankly the bunch of blazers running the place are not the men to do it), but, because the Premier League is a separate entity, the FA are (rightly) arguing the Prem doesn't pull its weight in funding all the grass roots stuff, because, let's face it the Prem doesn't gave a fuck about international football and actually wishes it would all go away. So as long as you have this dysfunctional relationship between the English governing bodies (which doesn't exist in Germany for example) its going to be very difficult to restructure the game from top to bottom,

I also think there's a separate, and much deeper issue in England to do with its wilfully anti-intellectual football culture (which is why there are so few English managers), because other countries don't actually have a problem with their players having two brain-cells to rub together.

Hence stopping the Premiership teams signing anyone unless it is from the centers and when they sign them from there they have to pay a development fee. Premiership are then paying more than a first share if they want the young talented footballers.

 

[Job]

Only 3.3 million people live in Uruguay, that's less than London.
Oh and they won it in 1930 and 1950, they could win..good luck to them

 

[DaGaffer]

Hence stopping the Premiership teams signing anyone unless it is from the centers and when they sign them from there they have to pay a development fee. Premiership are then paying more than a first share if they want the young talented footballers.

But the FA has no leverage to make the Prem do that, so why would they sign up to it? That's the problem.

 

[Job]

 

[soze]

But the FA has no leverage to make the Prem do that, so why would they sign up to it? That's the problem.

If they FA say to play in England you have to go though one of the development centers they will have no choice. If all they Young English players are there and they want one of them they have to pay.

 

[Chilly]

Only bet today is to lay the fuck out of italy for maximum stake.
Italy v Costa Rica: lay Italy £1250 @ 1.6

Costa Rica are massively underrated and Italy fairly overrated. If you only make one bet, this is it.

Running P&L including early settlements of group winner bets so far: £4162.25

 

[SilverHood]

If they FA say to play in England you have to go though one of the development centers they will have no choice. If all they Young English players are there and they want one of them they have to pay.

They should look at the Belgian system. There's a great article on it in The Guardian here
http://www.theguardian.com/football...print-gave-birth-golden-generation-world-cup-

 

[DaGaffer]

If they FA say to play in England you have to go though one of the development centers they will have no choice. If all they Young English players are there and they want one of them they have to pay.

The FA don't have the ability or authority to do that. They would be challenged in the courts by the Prem and the teams.

 

[Chilly]

And my bets for tomorrow's games:
Argentina v Iran: lay argentina £1522 @ 1.15
Germany v Ghana: lay germany £1119 @ 1.34
Nigeria v Bosnia: back nigeria (lols): £217 @ 4.6

 

[Moriath]

Yo

And my bets for tomorrow's games:
Argentina v Iran: lay argentina £1522 @ 1.15
Germany v Ghana: lay germany £1119 @ 1.34
Nigeria v Bosnia: back nigeria (lols): £217 @ 4.6

u really think Germany won't beat Ghana ?
Or have I read that wrong

 

[Chilly]

Yo

u really think Germany won't beat Ghana ?
Or have I read that wrong

It's not that I don't think they'll win, it's that I think they have a certain percentage chance to win (64.7%, as it happens) but I can get odds implying 75%. That's a 10% margin. If you were to play that game many times, I would come out ahead on average. Any gambler who says they know what's going to happen in any given game or event is full of shit. There is so such thing as a dead cert. They only way is to spot the pricing errors (like this) and then trade on them. Of course, I might be wrong but still win the bet, or I might be right and still lose the bet, so it's quite hard to know, from one bet, whether I'm full of shit or skilled. If I'm in profit at the end of the world cup, I think it's fair to say I've either been *very* lucky or I've had better stats than the bookies.

 

[Chilly]

It's the same as if you and I bet on a coin flip. We know that it's, essentially, a 50% chance either way (ignoring the tiny biases that do exist). If I offer you odds of 2 on every bet, we'll just trade money back and forwards for ever and neither of us can have any expectation to make a profit over time. If, however, you bet at a price of 1.8 vs me to get heads, that means I'm underpaying you by 1/1.8 - 1/2.0 = 5.6%. If we flip the coin enough, that 5.6% turns into a profit margin because when you lose, you lose your full stake, but when you win, you only get 94.5% of the winnings you'd get betting at evens. That is exactly how a bookie or a casino makes money and it's exactly why casinos LOVE IT when you win. They don't care. They know you'll be back and jizz it all away eventually.

 

[Chilly]

The difference between sport and coin flips is simply complexity of the system to be modelled. With a coin, it's trivial to work out (just by observation) the P(Heads) and P(Tails). With a football match, there's a fuckload of things to consider and it's essentially impossible to get it bang on. Because it's so difficult, bookies and people in general get it wrong and offer odds based on their flawed models. So it makes the game way harder because no one *really* knows what they're doing. The only way to judge if you're any good is if you make money. Even that isnt always a reliable measure. I happen to know that one of the biggest lifetime winners on Betfair was once the biggest losing account for a year. We're talking 7 or 8 figure losses. But overall, he's so good that he doesn't give a fuck - just bad luck.

 

[ileks]

It's not that I don't think they'll win, it's that I think they have a certain percentage chance to win (64.7%, as it happens) but I can get odds implying 75%. That's a 10% margin. If you were to play that game many times, I would come out ahead on average. Any gambler who says they know what's going to happen in any given game or event is full of shit. There is so such thing as a dead cert. They only way is to spot the pricing errors (like this) and then trade on them. Of course, I might be wrong but still win the bet, or I might be right and still lose the bet, so it's quite hard to know, from one bet, whether I'm full of shit or skilled. If I'm in profit at the end of the world cup, I think it's fair to say I've either been *very* lucky or I've had better stats than the bookies.

Have you looked at the Bloomberg match prediction thingy? They have Italy at 66.3% and agree with your other bets as well. According to them, the NL have a 47.7% chance against Chile but Betfair have them at 37%. Worth a punt as well or are they a bunch of amateurs?!

 

[Job]

Well of course bookies always hedge their bets...they arent stupid enough to leave it to chance..steady statistical profits is their game...and as you say 99% of gamblers play till they lose it all.

 

[miri]

 

[Calaen]

Should have been a pen that fuvk me

 

[Calaen]

Well deserved tbh

 

[Ch3tan]

should have listened to @Chilly's betting advice!

 

[caLLous]

I know it's sort of moot if Italy lose here but... we're not going to beat this Costa Rica team.

 

[CorNokZ]

Gonna start putting money on Chilly's predictions tomorrow! I am tired of missing out on the free money! He is basically throwing a bag of cash at me, but I am just too stupid to pick it up..

 

[Embattle]

Italy look fucked.

 

[caLLous]

Shut up Savage you plonker. And Italy do look awful.