Politics POLL: Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

[Job]

At what point did I mention the Irish border?

At what point did I say you did.

 

[Ctuchik]

You're the one that went raving on about NI hard border so you tell us....

 

[Job]

So Wij replies to article about brexit myths, on e of them was the Irish border, so I commented on it.

And now I'm raving on about it....which of course is what you lot allways write when I have a argument you cant criticise.

 

[DaGaffer]

Its not laughably poor, the most outrageous part of it for me is the NI hard border..this is utter bollocks.

R4 has the retired head of customs from the border on the phone..he rang in to point out the utter shite that was being discussed in the media about it..the presenter was trying everything to undermine him to keep the myth going.
He just slowly and logically ripped the hysteria apart with facts.
They never mentioned it again because it didnt fit the agenda.

Half-truths, lies, damn lies and statistics. On both sides.

In the case of the Irish border, it is correct that the WTO does not force a hard border, the WTO can’t force anyone to do anything. But, if you don’t have a border and items flow tariff-free, even ignoring the fact that the EU won’t permit it because it destroys the integrity of the single market, other countries can complain to the WTO that the U.K. isn’t offering a level playing field to their imports; this is the “most favoured nation” (MFN) principle that says you have to offer everyone the same deal unless you create a specific bilateral or multilateral deal that exempts you from WTO rules with that specific country.

So if the U.K. has an unchecked border with Ireland, it has to have an unchecked border with everyone, and the WTO can enforce sanctions to ensure that. Oh, and you can’t create a pretend border and simply not enforce it; third countries can complain about that as well.

 

[Job]

As pointed out, the border is a virtual entity, all the customs is done at source, there is no border post and there never needs to be one.

If there is people or goods smuggling, then thats an issue for the police/customs, both sides, NI was allready not in the Euro zone, now it's just not going to be in the customs union either.

Well, if that ever happens.

Favouritism for the UK, that's the giant elephant in the entire EU, how do you keep people in a club if youre offering the same deal to non members, that one is going to crash home eventually, regardless of brexit.

 

[DaGaffer]

As pointed out, the border is a virtual entity, all the customs is done at source, there is no border post and there never needs to be one.

If there is people or goods smuggling, then thats an issue for the police/customs, both sides, NI was allready not in the Euro zone, now it's just not going to be in the customs union either.

Well, if that ever happens.

Favouritism for the UK, that's the giant elephant in the entire EU, how do you keep people in a club if youre offering the same deal to non members, that one is going to crash home eventually, regardless of brexit.

What does being in the Eurozone have to do with anything?

To say “all the paperwork is done away from the border so nothing changes and it’s all easy” is once again, a half-truth. No, you might not need a border post, but you do need to show you have the ability to check goods crossing the border and an audit trail to show you’re doing it often enough to have real utility. And that’s a problem on the NI/ROI border, probably more so than any other border on Earth, because of the politics, not the risk to trade.

 

[caLLous]

 

[Embattle]

https://assets.publishing.service.g...egal_position_on_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf

 

[caLLous]

Yes, well done, that's the one the Government wants you to see.

 

[Gwadien]

Yes, well done, that's the one the Government wants you to see.

Doing it wrong, you just facepalm without any explanation, it really gets the conversation going.

 

[Bodhi]

Laughably poor.

Just to pick a few points, he ignores the effect of the de-valued pound on imports which could easily offset the effect of abolishing all import tariffs. Also fails to mention that the only economist who was advocating that, Patrick Minford, freely admits that move would decimate UK manufacturing. He also seems to be in the minority of people who don't seem to think that unilaterally lowering your import tariffs leaves you in a shit position to negotiate new trade deals because the other party has already got what they were after.

He picks the one quarter where the UK did will against the G7 average and ignores the others where it didn't.

He forgets to mention that the biggest reasons the UK economy has held together better than expected are that the BoE spewed cash into it to prop it up and also that the world economy performed much better than expected. Also we haven't left yet and many businesses are hoping that we either won't or we'll stay in the single market. The effects of hard brexit haven't really been factored into the economy yet.

The old forecasts are always wrong thing. Yes, they often are. Things happen that weren't expected. That doesn't change the fact that it's perfectly reasonable to expect that, other things being equal, an economy will perform worse when new trade barriers are erected than it would if they weren't.

The old WTO is great thing, despite the fact that nobody trades on WTO terms. Why would that be if they are fine?

Yadda yadda. You know that's a load of bollocks Bodhi. Troll better next time.

No it's a decent counter point to all the Chicken Little Sky is Falling bullshit you keep posting links to.

I'm also able to read it properly, which tends to help when trying to determine its message - he isn't suggesting unilaterally dropping all tariffs, just certain ones to offset the fact goods from the EU have got more expensive. And if they are on goods we don't manufacture here, whats the downside?

And I'm sorry, but to say that a hard Brexit hasn't been priced into the economy yet is also complete and utter bullshit - all those companies you gleely post that are "heading for the exit" have already planned for no deal, as has any company that's bought a plaque somewhere in the EU to run from London.

 

[Bodhi]

Must admit I thought the backstop sounded like a terrible idea, but after watching the below I can definetly see how Norn Iron could use it to its advantage and how it wouldn't be a great place for Brussels to be stuck either.


View: https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1069642517866586112?s=19


Possibly a tad optimistic, but worth a watch.

 

[Wij]

No it's a decent counter point to all the Chicken Little Sky is Falling bullshit you keep posting links to.

I'm also able to read it properly, which tends to help when trying to determine its message - he isn't suggesting unilaterally dropping all tariffs, just certain ones to offset the fact goods from the EU have got more expensive. And if they are on goods we don't manufacture here, whats the downside?

And I'm sorry, but to say that a hard Brexit hasn't been priced into the economy yet is also complete and utter bullshit - all those companies you gleely post that are "heading for the exit" have already planned for no deal, as has any company that's bought a plaque somewhere in the EU to run from London.

Trust me. Lots have companies have not planned for no deal. And the government is nowhere near prepared either.

 

[Bodhi]

Trust me. Lots have companies have not planned for no deal. And the government is nowhere near prepared either.

I would suggest if a company trades with the EU and hasn't made arrangements for something which is a distinct possibility in 4 months time they have bigger issues than a No Deal Brexit.

Trust me.

 

[Job]

Behind the scenes..the government is going to have to offer sweeteners to companies to keep their loyalty through the transition.
Money likes stability..brexit is unstability..it will all play out in the end.
The UK by brexiting is showing corporations that we dont like rules, if we can stop the fuckers striking, they will be all over us for a more relaxed attitude to corporate responsibility.

 

[caLLous]

Employees strike, corporations don't. Corporations pack up and leave.

 

[Scouse]

Nah. Corporations threaten to pack up and leave. But if you punch them, they pay their taxes. Whatever taxes you demand.

Better low profit than no profit.

 

[Wij]

I would suggest if a company trades with the EU and hasn't made arrangements for something which is a distinct possibility in 4 months time they have bigger issues than a No Deal Brexit.

Trust me.

You can't just magic up warehouse space and drivers. You can only mitigate as far as you can within the constraints of not having an infinite budget for something that might not happen.

 

[Wij]

Space policy boffin: Blighty can't just ctrl-C, ctrl-V plans for Galileo into its Brexit satellite

 

[Job]

Employees strike, corporations don't. Corporations pack up and leave.

i was talking about the workers

 

[Job]

Space policy boffin: Blighty can't just ctrl-C, ctrl-V plans for Galileo into its Brexit satellite

Another pile of shite, we are far to woven into Gallileo to be pushed out, seriously..just seriously, are they even thinking of restricting access codes to one of Europes nuclear powers, the front line of their defence and a permanent member of the security council.
I cant even....
Just that threat, the utter audacity of it, says everything about the mentality down at Brussels...fuck me they need to be stopped.

There are a million concerns with Gallileo, starting with it actually being a Europe wide tracking facility..which they will put in place under, if we don't know where you are, you are up to something argument....every single car will be tracked 24/7..then your phone, then you...they have allready made gps mandatory in all European cars.
The EU empire is heading the same way as the Chinese, every step is reasonable until you find yourself falling foul of the EU commission of citizen behaviour.

 

[Gwadien]

Another pile of shite, we are far to woven into Gallileo to be pushed out, seriously..just seriously, are they even thinking of restricting access codes to one of Europes nuclear powers, the front line of their defence and a permanent member of the security council.
I cant even....
There are a million concerns with Gallileo, starting with it actually being a Europe wide tracking facility..which they will put in place under, if we don't know where you are, you are up to something argument....every single car will be tracked 24/7..then your phone, then you...they have allready made gps mandatory in all European cars.
The EU empire is heading the same way as the Chinese, every step is reasonable until you find yourself falling foul of the EU commission of citizen behaviour.

The EU be like to UK scientists, wanna live in a country with no scientific funding and a uncertain economic future?

Or do you wanna stay in the EU and work on these massive projects that we can only afford because we've clubbed all our funds together?

No brainer for me.

STILL not sure if you're aware but NATO/UN/EU are all different things m8

 

[caLLous]

We’ll build our own satellite system, defiant Theresa May tells EU

 

[Job]

STILL not sure if you're aware but NATO/UN/EU are all different things m8

It s the fucking EU that has lost track of its position in the world.

A fucking trading bloc that is now threatening to exclude Britain from a technology it helped build, because we dont want to be in it, its the fucking EU, not the combined will of Europe..not by a long way, if they push us out of Galileo, we should re threaten what we did in the early days after brexit, to shut our massive security and intelligence support, by far the biggest in Europe, they would go into freefall without us.
They saw their asses on that one.

 

[Gwadien]

STILL not sure if you're aware but NATO/UN/EU are all different things m8

It s the fucking EU that has lost track of its position in the world.

A fucking trading bloc that is now threatening to exclude Britain from a technology it helped build, because we dont want to be in it, its the fucking EU, not the combined will of Europe..not by a long way, if they push us out of Galileo, we should re threaten what we did in the early days after brexit, to shut our massive security and intelligence support, by far the biggest in Europe, they would go into freefall without us.
They saw their asses on that one.

Yeah man, we should totally engage in tit-for-tat Trumpesque politics. It's really how we develop the world and move forward.

I find it amusing how you still think we can pick and chose what we want and what we don't need to be a part of.

Wasn't the major concern of the UK intelligence services that we'd lose access to the European database?

 

[Job]

No it was some remainer bullshit.

As I have said, Britains role in European security is absolute, there was a little thing called WW2, Germany was again put in a position never to threaten her neighbours.

So...the clubs not working out very well, which it isn't by any standards.

Lets exclude the UK from a cornerstone defence technology, because they won't go along with our club rules.

As I have said before, it's playing out right in front of us , just like it did in the 30s.
And just like in the 30's, everyone thought things had changed, it was modern times, this couldnt happen, not now, we are all friends, let them have an army..what could go wrong.

 

[Gwadien]

No it was some remainer bullshit.

Incorrect.

Police leaders warn over 'no-deal' Brexit

 

[Job]

Thats a far bigger issue for Europe than us, but of course remainers like to spin it to our disadvantage as usual.

Britains intelligence and security is second to none, we have the worlds largest spy base and our world network of spybases brings in the vast majority of European intelligence.

 

[Gwadien]

Thats a far bigger issue for Europe than us, but of course remainers like to spin it to our disadvantage as usual.

Right, so what you're saying is unless they're a proven Brexiteer the warnings from the Police should be ignored, right?

I like it how after Brexit happened the response was 'Now we need to unify and work together to get the best outcome'

But that in reality means that the Brexiteers need to direct Brexit and we ignore advice from anyone is opposed to Brexit because they're just being bias.

 

[Job]

Well of course its a problem if we stopped sharing info...which we wont..but its a far bigger problem for Europe..but all the mainstream press has an agenda to belittle britains position in Europe.