Off-topic Mafia #8 Game Thread

[old.Tohtori]

And i'm not pointing out, i merely said that there's plenty of "mafia surely would" in your posts.

Though your answer was more then little...well...not really townie.

 

[Olgaline]

but anyway: before we end up theorizing this topic of day one to death,
I'm still most for a no-lynch

my question still remains, if we'r gonna go for a lynch
- then who?
- and why?

and yes sure you'd be right to think that I seem Eager, thats because I am!
I never quite got why eagerness nessersarily or automaticly would be any way synonamos with guilt. at least not in this game, infact I'd be quick to argue that from a mob side perspective, Patience is very much a virtue...

 

[Olgaline]

And i'm not pointing out, i merely said that there's plenty of "mafia surely would" in your posts.

Though your answer was more then little...well...not really townie.

yet i question why the need to point that out ?
what are you trying to achive by "mearly saying that?"

and the last bit..well again from my perspective your trying to a: Discredit me b: set me up for the fall

I dont see what els you could seek to achive by your this post

 

[old.Tohtori]

Reading too much into it.

You insulted my % style, i said back. That's it.

To be clear to all townies, i wasn't trying to blame Olgaline!

Happy now?

But read my previous post and read my reasoning on a hang. As said, there's no reason NOT to hang someone. Be it a shot in the dark or not.

 

[old.Tohtori]

And by eager i meant "eager to have a no lynch"

 

[Olgaline]

ok fair enough,

but then the question still stands,
who ?

not that I'm ready to lynch just yet, just curiouse

 

[old.Tohtori]

ok fair enough,

but then the question still stands,
who ?

not that I'm ready to lynch just yet, just curiouse

Oh i dunno. Anyone is as good as anyone. Straws?

 

[Olgaline]

well,
I think we can do abit better,

so I'll break it down and include my self.

Me: Advocating no lynch, argument for lynch would be: looking for a free night kill

Toht: advocating Lynch, argument for lynch would be: One more dead Townie simple

now then,

Calo: argument for lynch would be: Hasnt said a word yet, but has been active on FH since game start, Theory would be likely roleblocker, makes sence to lay low.

Levin: argument for lynch could/would be: He's been a Townie 7 times surely this time!

English: same reason as Calo

that leaves, Fl3a and Golena who I dont quite know where to place or why "yet"
now laying low is all good and fine and a viable tactic for the doc/cop "doc especially
but mostly it makes sence from a Roleblocker/doc perspective

as a cop I dont see any specific reason to want to stay below the radar exept the mafia cop radar ofc.

 

[Levin]

well,
I think we can do abit better,

so I'll break it down and include my self.

Me: Advocating no lynch, argument for lynch would be: looking for a free night kill

Toht: advocating Lynch, argument for lynch would be: One more dead Townie simple

now then,

Calo: argument for lynch would be: Hasnt said a word yet, but has been active on FH since game start, Theory would be likely roleblocker, makes sence to lay low.

Levin: argument for lynch could/would be: He's been a Townie 7 times surely this time!

English: same reason as Calo

that leaves, Fl3a and Golena who I dont quite know where to place or why "yet"
now laying low is all good and fine and a viable tactic for the doc/cop "doc especially
but mostly it makes sence from a Roleblocker/doc perspective

as a cop I dont see any specific reason to want to stay below the radar exept the mafia cop radar ofc.

Actually Calo had a few posts on the first page (i think). English hasn't said anything except "oh have we started?" and Golena made just one post so far, arguing that we should be careful with statistics and giving the feeling that he wants a no-lynch. Fl3a has made a couple comments towards the lynch side, but nothing hardline as I could see. Tohtori and Olgaline arguing semantics and me trying to my track of arguing for why we should lynch.

Out of all these, my (in)famous gut feel tells me that Golena is suspicious, just from the feel i got by his post. I'm not one to say "let's lynch!" and let others start it, so.. i'll throw the first stone then!

Vote: Golena

It's vague, it's blind, it's risky but it's gut feel! I don't expect anyone to follow my vote really, as I can't give any other good reason than "a hunch" to vote this way. At the very least, perhaps this will spark some more reactions around the crowd.

 

[old.Tohtori]

No offense Levin but you're gut feeling indeed is INfamous

 

[Olgaline]

hah aye, you basicly just aquited golena:

kidding aside, i dont know still

 

[Olgaline]

my hunch would be Calo,
but my gut still says no lynch

 

[Levin]

Well as long as it makes things happen, im pleased. Goodnight now!

 

[- English -]

well,
I think we can do abit better,

so I'll break it down and include my self.

Me: Advocating no lynch, argument for lynch would be: looking for a free night kill

Toht: advocating Lynch, argument for lynch would be: One more dead Townie simple

now then,

Calo: argument for lynch would be: Hasnt said a word yet, but has been active on FH since game start, Theory would be likely roleblocker, makes sence to lay low.

Levin: argument for lynch could/would be: He's been a Townie 7 times surely this time!

English: same reason as Calo

that leaves, Fl3a and Golena who I dont quite know where to place or why "yet"
now laying low is all good and fine and a viable tactic for the doc/cop "doc especially
but mostly it makes sence from a Roleblocker/doc perspective

as a cop I dont see any specific reason to want to stay below the radar exept the mafia cop radar ofc.

bleh i said a word on the first page!

but tbh whats there to say on the first day, we either lynch someone off or wait for the night when the mafia do... looking at the stats for each, i say we just guess and hope we get lucky... if you guess me so be it

 

[Golena]

I would just like to say that percentages be damned. It doesn't matter if the cop lives or dies, really, because he won't be auto-believed anyway. Just see the cop thing as a very very VERY tiny bonus to the town side. It's like a little card the cop can pull out when there are three or four people left and he's one of them. Before that, someone claiming cop isn't going to help much at all.

I've been spending a while thinking about how the cop can be most effective and while the reasoning is likely to get me lynched I guess, here goes. As you pointed out pulling out the cop claim when there's 3 or 4 people left is fairly ineffective, since it's so easy to counter claim it as the mafia, as has been shown in previous games.

But what if the cop declared his role earlier. The advantage we have in this game is we know there's a cop so a "fake cop" claim by the mafia is more risky since there's no chance of there not being a cop and them being the only cop claim there is.
If there's only one cop claim then the cop has exposed himself, but we've reduced the chances of lynching a townie on the first day. If there's a cop claim and a fake cop claim then we've narrowed down one of the mafia members to 2 people, so again the odds improve for us.

It means the cop is either going to be killed or roleblocked by the mafia fairly early I guess, the presence of a doc might be able to put this off for a while tho. But if we don't think that the cop actually adds anything, since he's never believed anyway, have we really lost anything?

 

[Golena]

Golena made just one post so far, arguing that we should be careful with statistics and giving the feeling that he wants a no-lynch.

I certainly didn't want to give the impression I wanted a no-lynch. I'm undecided if a no lynch is the right way to go at the moment. The one thing I would agree with is that an early no-lynch is a bad idea.
Even if we decide not to hang someone the first day, it's important to gather some information, and ultimately (other than random speculation from posts which isn't really reliable) that only happens through voting patterns.

As far as making only one post, I was at work all day, then busy this evening so this is the first chance i've really had to read through the thread properly. I've certainly not tried to stay under the radar deliberately.

Since as I pointed out we only learn stuff from voting i'll start with:

Vote: Fl3a

He's been fairly quiet so far, and i've nothing really to go on at the moment.

 

[Olgaline]

well, often the cop will have something to backup his claim,
also Aflik the cop is by far most effective not through claiming his role, but by using his knowlage correctly as thus to lead the rest onto his target by using the the targets posting habbits, claims, votes ect.

also a cop without a positive mafia Id is for me just a vanilla townie with an edge knowing to discard a couple of suspects due to knowing thier townie identity..

so basicly for me if your a cop it's all about leading the flok towards or away from a given target:

if you know soemone to be innocent: use is habbits to proove it
if you know someone to be guilty : well Duh!

Yeah yeah I shouldnt be saying this as it could easily be abused now, but never the less thats my two cents:

and this leaves open the posibility of catching someone in the act "fake claim"

 

[Olgaline]

the only way for what your suggesting to work is for the doc to remain hidden and not be role blocked. but with only 7 people this stratagy becomes way to rsike as each night the mafia get 2 shots dishabilitating the doc by A: roleblock B: kill

 

[Olgaline]

another thing is I wont be telling what my role is at anytime at all,
becuase I want to the mafia to keep guessing.

 

[Golena]

I guess i'm just thinking out loud. At the moment the odds are rather stacked against us.

If we lynch tonight there's a huge chance of taking out a townie, given the mafia are unlikely to lynch each other. The mafia then kill someone else and we are in a position where the next choice has to be correct or it's game over. What's the best way of arriving at that position with some useful information.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Have my suspicions here, but unlike usual, this time i'm keeping them "Levin style". To myself

I know for a fact one of the mafia peeps, just from something posted here, look and you'll find it too.

Have to wait and see though.

 

[Iceforge]

Vote Count
Day 1

Golena - 1 - (Levin)
Fl3a - 1 - (Golena)

Not Voted: 5 (Old.Tohtori, Olgaline, English, Fl3a, Calo)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

 

[fl3a]

He's been fairly quiet so far, and i've nothing really to go on at the moment.

the relative quietness is just me playing day 1 - i have said what my thoughts are on lynching, and right now im just reading everything with utmost care. i will make a play once i have enough ideas about someone, there really is next to no point calling someone out without enough 'evidence'

 

[Calo]

Ok, I've been away all evening last and I'm in the middle of my exams so saying that I'm quiet but being active from the start is a bit of a lie olgaline, because well.. for 70% of this game I was not online.

And yes, a no lynch is better for the townies then a lynch, always has been. Its very much a guessing game. But the more we talk, the more info we get.

Oh and, think its best that doc and cop lay low for now, they can claim later on in the game. Now its just too risky to get lynched/roleblocked.

Anyway, off to a bit of more learning

 

[Olgaline]

calo you do know we can see when you log in under OT and we can see when you were last active on the forum right ?

the thing that anoys me is that we often seem to go for the least risky targets, at least thats seemed the trend, and it's seldom got us anywhere other than lead us to a dead vanilla, f.exp I have a strong suspecion towards one of the vetarans becuase he's well acting quiet differently in this game than he usually does, yet i dont call him on it just yet

 

[old.Tohtori]

calo you do know we can see when you log in under OT and we can see when you were last active on the forum right ?

f.exp I have a strong suspecion towards one of the vetarans becuase he's well acting quiet differently in this game than he usually does, yet i dont.

Those two are rather contradictive though.

Judging someone for being active in the boards, not in the game(valid tactic) yet not judging someone because of previous games?

 

[Olgaline]

aye, thats my point.

 

[Olgaline]

we dont always tend to listen to our own hunch and just go with it.
instead we question our selvs to the point that we "sometimes" can act
strait against our own conviction. "aka we second guess our selvs"
especially if that player in question is one of the top participators

 

[Levin]

In my opinion, the more people talk, the more unsure i get. I've realized this in previous games. As Olgaline says.. the more people speak, the more I start to second guess myself, and triple guess, and four.. fourplay, yes, fourplay guess. You get the point.

That's why i threw a vote out there based on nothing but trust in lady luck and a little gut feel, even thuogh the gut feel is no longer as strong.

 

[old.Tohtori]

And if you act this way, you're evil, but if you don't act that way, you're evil too.

Damned if you do...

Anyhoo, vote: Olgaline because honestly, ironic, Olgalines post about "listening to our guts"