Off-topic Mafia #8 Game Thread

Iceforge

Can't get enough of FH
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Dec 24, 2003
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Players by sign-up:
old.Tohtori
Levin
Olgaline
-English-
Fl3a
Golena
Calo

Setup: Pie E7

Roles has been randomed, role PMs coming out shortly after this post.

Do not post in this thread until I announce that everybody has confirmed!

Rules:

1. Do not quote PMs from me and do not ask me to confirm/unconfirm anything revealed in PMs in the thread. Such request will be ignored and continued violations can result in ModKill

2. Bold your Votes and anything else I am supposed to see! It makes it a lot easier for me to see it when running over pages of debate between you guys, searching for votes for the votecount.
Also, put your votes and requests on a new line instead of in the middle of a block of text!
I have yet to have a complain about missing a vote, but the easier they are to spot, the less the chance I will ever miss a vote.
A not bold vote MIGHT still count, depending on whatever I see it or not, but don't complain about it not being counted if you did not bold it.
To clearify how to place a vote, the accepted form is:
Vote: NameOfPlayerYouWantToVote
Putting a Bolded "MOD:" infront of a question or request will help direct my attention to answering it during my next votecount

3. Don't PM other players about the game unless you role specificly allows you to do this.
Exception is that dead players of the game can PM other dead players, if they want to debate what they think is happening.
Do not discuss this game in other threads, SPECIALLY if you are dead. Your public opinion about who is and isn't mafia is not needed if you are dead!

4. Don't post in the thread at times at which you shouldn't and I've said you shouldn't. This means until I announce that all has confirmed and during night phase. Single violations happen from time to time by posting at the same time or missing a single reply. Thats fine, just don't willfully continue debating when it has been announced to be night.

5. I can't always keep track of who is and who isn't active in a game, as I don't get into the debate as much as just check for votes. Hence if someone is inactive (not posted for 48 hours, not counting weekends) use the MOD: request to request the player to be prodded. Player failing to respond in PM to me (either saying he is inactive on purpose or saying he is going to resume activity) will after a undetermined time period result in either ModKill or, preferably, replacement.

6. Rule change in mafia win condition: Mafia now only wins if there is equal or less members of town as members of the mafia at dawn. This eliminates the question about what happens with a Doctor+Townie+Mafia member alive at dusk.

7. Be nice to each other! Don't go right for the personal insults unless it is on the level that everybody can enjoy. I host these games for people to have fun and if you somehow prove that you can and will ruin that, then I won't feel bad Mod Killing you and excluding you from being a part of future games I host!

That is all
 

Iceforge

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[B]Q&A[/B] said:
Q: Can the doctor protect himself
A: Yes. With a roleblocker on the mafia side, a self-protecting doctor is not overpowered

Q: Did rules change regarding editting posts?
A: No, I merely forgot it when writing up the rules. You are NOT allowed to edit your posts, even if just for typo's. This serves to make sure everybody got access to all shared information without having to sit glued to the screen 24/7 checking for updates.

Iceforge walked down the road. Suddenly he saw high beams ahead, and a car accellerating towards him. Screaming at the top of his lungs "Oh no, not again!" as he turned around to flee, but too late.
A round of fire filed the air and he feel to the ground.
Everybody in town knew Iceforge was working to uncover the mafia in town, he must have gotten to close to the truth, found out who the members of the mafia is.
A note in his pocket, smeared and teared, only the first line of the note was readable 'The two members of the mafia is...'
Damn, no help for the townies there, except they know there are 2 members of the mafia in town.
The towns people gathered at the city hall to debate, all 7 of them.
Old.Tohtori,
Levin,
Olgaline,
- English -,
Fl3a,
Golena,
Calo,

Two of them was members of the mafia, up to all of them to work together to find out and LYNCH those criminals. The noose hanged ready over a beam at the end of the hall. Could a majority decide on someone to kill today?

Start Day 1, everybody has confirmed and everybody is now allowed to post and vote in the thread!

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
 

Olgaline

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thar be Trouble afoot.!

now the Question:
to lynch or not to lynch on day one!?
 

old.Tohtori

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Lynch: coin toss. Well, a coin with 7 sides to it, but a toss still. Might kill a baddy though.
No lynch: Might get someone saved, only one dead in any case. No new info really.
 

old.Tohtori

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Oh and queue someone calling me and olgaline being mafia 'cause we TALK :D
 

fl3a

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lynch: i think it was tohtori who said a few games ago, that even if you lynch an innocent today you increase the chances of lynching scum tomorrow (2/7 today, 2/5 or 2/6 tomorrow). hopefully some info gained in the night, and a chance of a save by the doctor
no lynch: one extra townie stays alive, although we have no idea who that extra townie is - the person who stays alive might as well be mafia.

in making our decision we must also always remember, that there is a roleblocker, meaning there are 2 things stopping the cop from finding out who is who at night (block & death), as opposed to the normal one (death at night)
 

old.Tohtori

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lynch: i think it was tohtori who said a few games ago, that even if you lynch an innocent today you increase the chances of lynching scum tomorrow (2/7 today, 2/5 or 2/6 tomorrow). hopefully some info gained in the night, and a chance of a save by the doctor
no lynch: one extra townie stays alive, although we have no idea who that extra townie is - the person who stays alive might as well be mafia.

in making our decision we must also always remember, that there is a roleblocker, meaning there are 2 things stopping the cop from finding out who is who at night (block & death), as opposed to the normal one (death at night)

Aye, the lynch-math theory.

2 vs 5. Chance to lynch a mobster is 2 out of 7 (-30%)
2 vs 4. chance to lynch a mobster is 2 out of 6 (33%)
Scenario most likely though: 2 vs 3, chance to lynch a mobster 2 out of 5(around 40-50%) with the next day being 1 vs 2 if successful on mafia hanging.

If we don't hang someone now, the chances to hang a mobster today are -30%(same) but tomorrow they will be 33% instead of 40-50%.

(yeah i know the numbers ain't correct...)
 

Calo

Part of the furniture
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Jan 21, 2004
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In the last few games we mostly did a no lynch on the first day and never really worked that well for us. then again, I've never seen a scum being lynched on first day. But now we have a cop which we are sure of.
 

old.Tohtori

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In the last few games we mostly did a no lynch on the first day and never really worked that well for us. then again, I've never seen a scum being lynched on first day. But now we have a cop which we are sure of.

Unless we lynch him on day one, if we lynch that is.
 

old.Tohtori

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The thing is, chances of lynching a mobster is the same as lynching a doc/cop, where the lynching of an innocent is about 70%.
 

Levin

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That's why this game is so stacked against the town in the first place. *grumble* Anyway.

Here's what I wonder. How should the cop act in order for people to believe him? If we can get a cop-role that works, it may be worth it to no-lynch, but... i really don't see how that could work. Can someone think of some sure-proof way for the cop to claim and point? Last few games, the cop got lynched, by me among others. :(

If it won't work, i guess the best bet will be, as always, to start throwing accusations around and see who says what. Not that it will help much either with people playing double-schemes, triple-schemes and nothing said seems to mean anything at all. Gah.
 

Calo

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That's why this game is so stacked against the town in the first place. *grumble* Anyway.

Here's what I wonder. How should the cop act in order for people to believe him? If we can get a cop-role that works, it may be worth it to no-lynch, but... i really don't see how that could work. Can someone think of some sure-proof way for the cop to claim and point? Last few games, the cop got lynched, by me among others. :(

If it won't work, i guess the best bet will be, as always, to start throwing accusations around and see who says what. Not that it will help much either with people playing double-schemes, triple-schemes and nothing said seems to mean anything at all. Gah.

Well, people would think that if the cop claims now, he will be lynched the first night but then the doc can protect him.. then again, it might be a fake cop claim which would result in total chaos.

Tbh, if the cop finds someone scummy, he should make a strong case against him.
 

Levin

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Well, people would think that if the cop claims now, he will be lynched the first night but then the doc can protect him.. then again, it might be a fake cop claim which would result in total chaos.

Tbh, if the cop finds someone scummy, he should make a strong case against him.

Yeah, I was thinking the same. If someone claims cop and has doc protect him and he turns out to be mafia in the end... chaos indeed. I think the devil himself wrote these rules, while he was drunk, stoned and in a pissy mood. Or maybe he was just bought by the mafia.
 

old.Tohtori

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"I was gonna say something but then i thought for a moment and realised it was really really dumb :D"

Then i thought about that upper, statement in my mind, on this post and thought that's REALLY dumb.

I'm starting to play against myself and i don't like it!

Anyhoo, have to remember that there's a roleblocker too. If they find out who's the cop, they can just eliminate him by making him useless.
 

Olgaline

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lynch: i think it was tohtori who said a few games ago, that even if you lynch an innocent today you increase the chances of lynching scum tomorrow (2/7 today, 2/5 or 2/6 tomorrow).

this could just as well be used to argue a no-lynch vote. since a lynch increases the % chance for the mafia to target the cop or doctor the comming night

with a no lynch vote,
you ensure that no innocent is lynched on day one, you give the cop a chance to investigate one player, and you also increase the number of players the mob have to guess from for a succsesfull roleblock. decreasing thier chance to roleblock correctly.

you also give the doc a chance to protect someone by ensuring that nore he or the cop have been freak lynched on day one


so the way I see it, It makes everybit of sence from a mob perspective to push for a lynch on day one, where as a townie all you can hope for is a fluke.
 

Levin

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That's just the thing though. From previous experiences, it feels like the only way the town can win is by striking luck with at least one early lynch, and then another later in the game.

What will happen if we no-lynch on day one?

The cop gets to investigate one person.
The doc has a 1/7 chance to protect someone.
The mafia WILL kill someone, and that someone could be cop or doc.

The cop investigation is way overrated as we've seen from previous games. It doesn't matter how long he waits to claim cop and point at people - things can still be turned around and argued in all directions until the cop himself might even get lynched. Lately it's felt like nobody's words are worth anythingand that it's been a game of pure chance (seven sided coin as Tohtori said), and that's why i think we should lynch someone on day one.
 

old.Tohtori

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this could just as well be used to argue a no-lynch vote. since a lynch increases the % chance for the mafia to target the cop or doctor the comming night

with a no lynch vote,
you ensure that no innocent is lynched on day one, you give the cop a chance to investigate one player, and you also increase the number of players the mob have to guess from for a succsesfull roleblock. decreasing thier chance to roleblock correctly.

you also give the doc a chance to protect someone by ensuring that nore he or the cop have been freak lynched on day one

That isn't exactly true. The % goes a bit different for mafia.

2 out fo 5 are special. 40% chance to kill right one.
Next night 2 out of 4. 50% chance.

If the townies hang someone on day one(not special):

2 out of 4 are special, 50% chance.

So it's either a 40% or a 50% chance anyway for the mafia to hit right.

And the townies have equal % of hanging own special then there is to hang a mafia.
 

Olgaline

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quit the % blabbing
it's just as simple as: one less to choose from to find the cop/doc for the mafia on the nightkill if an innocent is lynched on day one.

so from a pick of 5 it's a pick of 4 where so 1/4 for doc cop and 1/2 for either doc or cop.

without a day lynch it's 1/5 and 2/3


but I'm not saying we shouldnt, "yet"
I just dont see how it can benifit anyone exept the mafia to random lynch
if anyone can provide me with any good reason to lynch a particular person then fine.
otherwise it's shooting blindfolded with a shotgun hoping to fluke out
 

old.Tohtori

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if anyone can provide me with any good reason to lynch a particular person then fine.

Well...

quit the % blabbing

comments start to sound tempting :eek:


If we don't hang anyone, it's a pick out of 5.
If we do(and miss), it's a pick out of 4.
Our chances to hang a mafia are the same as hanging a "special".
Our chances of winning with a miss, don't change much.
Our chances with a hit, change dramatically.
 

Olgaline

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why the heck would i want to hang my self ?
and that hardly scares me,

and I'm still not convinced

and yes if that miss is a cop/doc then it very much does affect our chance to win.

with a miss we'r down to 6
add a night kill and we'r down to 5

that makes 2v3 instead of 2v4 "wich would mean only one more miss and they win" and even with a hit it's 1v3 and a night kill leaving him a 1v2 instead of 1v3

either way a no lynch today buys us an extra day.

if this was a 9 or 11 player game I'd say go for a lynch as f**** knows
but with only 7 ? if we miss we'll be on the fast track to a loss :/

if I were mafia I'd very much fancy tho's odds!
 

Golena

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Lets point out the really obvious problem with the percentages that have been quoted so far.

It's not 7 people with no knowledge making that first lynch. The mafia arn't going to lynch each other on the first day so the chances of getting an innocent are actually higher than quoted, since 2 votes will (almost) definately be placed on an innocent.

I've not worked out if this means we should or shouldn't lynch yet, but lets be careful if we want to use statistics that we get those statistics right.
 

fl3a

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using statistics in a game like this is not really a good idea, and im going to stay with the plan i have for day one in every game: it doesnt matter that much if you lynch or not, it matters if you get loads of information or not from the first day.
 

old.Tohtori

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why the heck would i want to hang my self ?
and that hardly scares me,

WAsn't meant to scare, just meant to say show some damn respect as i have. You're starting to sound like an eager mafia guy right about now.

Every post, "mafia would like that" or "It's mafia tactic" etc.

If we don't lynch, sure, we got one mroe person tomorrow but a bloody good chance we got no more info.

There's a 2 out fo 7 chance we hang innocent.
But there's a 2 out of 7 chance that cop finds someone.
Not to mention, cop claims are claims.

So, no hang today means no more info tomorrow. IT's just simple as that.

Passive playing NEVER won the town anything.
 

old.Tohtori

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Not to mention, sure, if we kill someone innocent tonight, it's likely 2vs3 tomorrow and one bad vote would mean a mafia win.

But if we don't vote, it's 2vs4 tomorrow, and another bad vote would take it to 2vs2. Aka, mafia wins again.
 

Olgaline

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huh respect? what are you on about ?

and I could just as well advocate that your pushing for a lynch for reasons already metioned,

infact I havent as of yet even slightly singeled out anyone, yet you seem eager to place "even if just a tiny bit" of suspecion on me with comments like "you sonúnd mafia" due to bla and bla...

I'm purely theorizing, so whats with the finger pointing already?

trying to question my motives wont get me to back down, as I said, give me a good reason or a reasonable suspect at the least.
pointing at someone as a mafia suspec souly on account that they disagree with you isnt very productive at all.
 

Levin

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I would just like to say that percentages be damned. It doesn't matter if the cop lives or dies, really, because he won't be auto-believed anyway. Just see the cop thing as a very very VERY tiny bonus to the town side. It's like a little card the cop can pull out when there are three or four people left and he's one of them. Before that, someone claiming cop isn't going to help much at all.

The doc is a bit more useful in that he can protect people and buy us another day if he's lucky.

But the fact remains.. townies are going to have to be damn lucky, yes lucky, several times in a row in order to win. Odds are against us, as always, and very much so. That's why mafia almost always win.
 

old.Tohtori

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quit the % blabbing

When it's not blabbing is a show of disrespect.

No need to be rude.

Get it?

Hensh, i answer in kind and might i add with "why the full on -no lynch- mode" when i've clearly explained your theory as false.

2 wrong votes by townies and it's game over, no matter what.
Cop has poorer chances of finding a bad guy if we don't hang.
We have the same chance to kill a mafia as we do to kill a "special".
Mafia has same chances to kill "special" no matter what.

All points are towards hanging on day one, only reason not to, would be the fear of hanging an innocent.
 

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