Politics Coronavirus

[Yoni]

Who had already been caught out by previous pandemics.... seriously @Scouse your arguments 1 year in are moot... there is no coulda shoulda woulda that can change todays awful toll on the world.... ie the horse had bolted please give over it is very very boring and also like you do not think we can not see this for ourselves oO

 

[Bodhi]

Rather than South Korea. A densely populated democratic country of 70 million who prepared along WHO guidelines...

I prefer the Japan model myself. Even more densely populated island (although considering the state of S Korea's only land border, you could term them as an island), with an ageing population similar to ours at a similar latitude and a slightly less authoritarian strategy, backed up by well thought out contact tracing. Even the Germans got that bit wrong tbh.

It's also incredible how many countries that were given kudos for a good response in the first wave have been absolutely battered this time round - Germany, Czechia, Denmark, etc. In fact the only countries in Europe that have done well both times are Norway and Finland (and Belarus amusingly).

 

[Scouse]

Who had already been caught out by previous pandemics....

This thinking is not just wrong-headed but dangerous.

We don't live in the 18th Century. We don't have to wait for ships to travel back from far and distant lands with tales of foreign illnesses.

We live in a time of instant communication. Over the preceeding decades countries around the world banded together to create a global warning and advice system to ensure we were prepared and ready to face pandemics of exactly this nature.

It's bordering on criminal that people still use "it hasn't happened to us yet" as an excuse when we were warned, we were told what to do and we didn't do anything.

This is what government is for.

 

[Scouse]

backed up by well thought out contact tracing.

This has always been key.

We've got a world class system tho right?

 

[Bodhi]

This thinking is not just wrong-headed but dangerous.

We don't live in the 18th Century. We don't have to wait for ships to travel back from far and distant lands with tales of foreign illnesses.

We live in a time of instant communication. Over the preceeding decades countries around the world banded together to create a global warning and advice system to ensure we were prepared and ready to face pandemics of exactly this nature.

It's bordering on criminal that people still use "it hasn't happened to us yet" as an excuse when we were warned, we were told what to do and we didn't do anything.

This is what government is for.

The problem is, an early warning system is only as useful as the country where the pandemic starts is. How long did it take China to sound the alarm? Taiwan did in December, but due to politics they were ignored. Considering it looks to have all kicked off in October 2019, made it to the UK in December 2019, but China didn't think to do anything until January 2020, by which point it had already spread worldwide.

I mean everyone praises China for their "swift action" to control the pandemic, however given it took them 3 - 4 months to do anything, and the key to effective pandemic control is to make sure it doesn't get out of your borders, I would say the biggest Government failure in all of this lies squarely on the feet of the CCP. Given they've had yet another outbreak (please let it be the UK variant), I'd say their Zero COVID strategy hasn't been entirely successful.

 

[Scouse]

And preparation @Bodhi? We were well prepared though, right?

So the call came late, but we acted immediately in the face of deaths happening on our doorstep and we were well prepared.

Oh. Wait...

 

[Bodhi]

This has always been key.

We've got a world class system tho right?

I can see where they were going with ours - again similar to Germany - however trying to chase up every positive case and seeing who they'd been in contract with, rather than working backwards to see where they got it from to try to identify clusters as Japan did, was always going to be a fool's errand. I expect it's tied in to how we defined a "case" over summer - i.e just a positive test, with no follow up by medical personnel to see if they were actually ill. Just testing positive - especially over summer - doesn't mean you're infectious, or even ill. So it was a lot of effort for no real benefit.

 

[Bodhi]

And preparation @Bodhi? We were well prepared though, right?

So the call came late, but we acted immediately in the face of deaths happening on our doorstep and we were well prepared.

Oh. Wait...

Much like the rest of the Western world we prepared for a flu pandemic, not a Coronavirus one.

 

[Scouse]

I can see where they were going with ours - again similar to Germany - however trying to chase up every positive case and seeing who they'd been in contract with, rather than working backwards to see where they got it from to try to identify clusters as Japan did, was always going to be a fool's errand. I expect it's tied in to how we defined a "case" over summer - i.e just a positive test, with no follow up by medical personnel to see if they were actually ill. Just testing positive - especially over summer - doesn't mean you're infectious, or even ill. So it was a lot of effort for no real benefit.

But we had it ready to go, right?

We were prepared, because of the decade long repeated warnings (and ebola-shocks) we had received.

Doesn't matter if some other countries were unprepared, we're responsible and accountable for our own preparation.

So I'm glad we were ready.

 

[Gwadien]

My sister is dealing with it - apart from the heart issues she is a very healthy 83 year old - as for my brothers I am sure they will be vaccinated as soon as it is available in the meantime they can continue to stay away from people

I thought you meant your sister was 83, Jesus!

 

[Yoni]

hah no my eldest sister is 60 this year

 

[Gwadien]

But we had it ready to go, right?

We were prepared, because of the decade long repeated warnings (and ebola-shocks) we had received.

Doesn't matter if some other countries were unprepared, we're responsible and accountable for our own preparation.

So I'm glad we were ready.

Don't worry.

Well probably be 'prepared' for another one for the next 10 years maybe then it'll be considered a financial waste.

 

[Embattle]

A guy on BBC news, the reporter from the AZ interview, has said on the news wires there seems to be some confirmation from the EU side that a clause over AZ "best effort" to supply the EU was in the deal.

AstraZeneca says meeting with Commission, EU countries is still on

The Commission wants to know what’s behind the company’s projected 60 percent cut to the EU’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2021.

www.politico.eu

 

[Aoami]

Interesting, I see on Twitter people getting their jabs in America in drive thrus. However, when my Dad got his jab last week he was made to wait 15 minutes before leaving the centre.

Are we being over cautious or is it because of a different vaccine?

Standard practice here to keep an eye on people after a jab. I've had a couple of dizzy spells for 10 mins after getting jabs before, and apparently it's quite common particularly in men.

 

[Deebs]

A guy on BBC news, the reporter from the AZ interview, has said on the news wires there seems to be some confirmation from the EU side that a clause over AZ "best effort" to supply the EU was in the deal.

AstraZeneca says meeting with Commission, EU countries is still on

The Commission wants to know what’s behind the company’s projected 60 percent cut to the EU’s deliveries in the first quarter of 2021.

www.politico.eu

It is going to get messy.

 

[Hawkwind]

Sorry @Deebs but the UK government, the police and the actual figures show that the vast majority of the UK public have been highly compliant with the requests - just like human animals from other countries.

The differentiating factor between the UK's abysmal performance and other countries isn't the people - it's the leadership.

Decisions taken too late and half assed measures - in direct conflict with scientific advice. Importantly - a failure on our leadership to learn the lessons from those mistakes so they were repeated.

Programme failures, governance failures, poor quality and mixed messaging. The reasons are myriad - it's not one failure that has led to such a devastating death toll comparative to the whole world but multiple and consistent failures.


Multiple and consistent failings and a failure to learn from mistakes equals clear incompetence.

The result of that incompetence has been death. More death than other countries, battling the same disease but doing much better.

I can think of no clearer indication of a total failure of leadership than the situation we find ourselves in with bodies continuing to rack up at world-fastest rates.

Absolutely correct that most people are abiding by the rules but it only takes a few idiots to undo all that. That is what happened to West Cornwall, only a handful of cases until idiots started travelling down here for Christmas. The County Court at Bodmin has been busy for days handing out judgements to people mainly from the Midlands and London. I actually had an argument in Falmouth high street walking back home at night when a group of guys loudly proclaimed that "it had taken six bloody hours to get here and its raining!". I drunkenly replied that they should follow the rules and fuck off back home then. Things got a little heated and we were quite outnumbered but more locals were close by and they realized quickly it would not go well for them. Was quite nice seeing their pictures in the local rag with the fines handed out

As for blaming the government for bad decisions that is where the buck stops, so fair enough. Although I have some sympathy as it is very easy to second guess after the fact. Trying to balance freedoms, economy and public safety can't be easy. They listened to science advice and tried to do the right thing. It is not always clear cut and has to be the worst time since WW2 to be the government.

You have the media grabbing headlines quoting scientists with different views, who rather than publish their data just provide fodder to a rabid press. Bad news sells!

My brother in law is heavily involved in the UK vaccine production and they are constantly on calls discussing policy and data with Ministers/Civil Service heads. They see tons of data and input to models that are used in policy decisions. I honestly don't think the government has done a completely shit job of this. They have messed up on schools and the messaging at times. Personally, I think relaxing rules at Christmas was a bad idea. what sent figures up here was people coming down to second homes from Tier 3+ over that period.

"The result of that incompetence has been death. More death than other countries, battling the same disease but doing much better." - Slightly incorrect as the UK variant spread much quicker and is more deadly. Which did ramp up the deaths more recently. I would agree that a total lockdown much earlier would have been much better. Keeping schools closed. Also, the NHS handling of sending people back to care homes at the start was a mistake. They balanced getting them away quickly from hospitals with infection wards to reduce risk and waiting for test kits.

As for the EU tantrum on vaccine production.

What the UK government did right on the vaccine front was fund the Oxford vaccine and authorize production as early as July last year, prior to the full testing programme. This allowed stocks to be built up and AZ to gear up the production sites. With that funding investment UK got the bulk of the initial production and was first to contract. EU were still evaluating options so EU throwing toys out the pram now because they were down the list is utter bollocks. Their ordering was at least 3 months later. AZ Chief has already come out and said that EU delivery was 'best effort' against their demand for an equivalent delivery schedule to UK. He is quite happy to go to court on that.

FYI as far as I understand it, the issue is partly with a plant in Belgium which has had production scaling issues. AZ have already said that because the UK started earlier they ironed out a lot of the scaling issues. So effectively, the EU did not commit and then want the same schedule as UK who did months before. Then when the factories cant scale quickly enough they rattle their sabres and talk about stopping production leaving EU. Problem with that is that some key components are from UK (Oxford Biomedica) so playing that game will become an issue quickly for them.

The UK took a calculated risk (based on early testing data) on the vaccine investment and paying for the production prior to the testing results, it was a good decision and one which will save lives.

 

[Embattle]

I do wonder where people get their facts from regarding following the rules, firstly I would question if people know them or understand them all but I think you would be right many people aren't attending raves or parties but people probably are breaking what would be considered the minor rules every now and again or at least the spirit of the rules in my opinion.

 

[Wij]

I prefer the Japan model myself. Even more densely populated island (although considering the state of S Korea's only land border, you could term them as an island), with an ageing population similar to ours at a similar latitude and a slightly less authoritarian strategy, backed up by well thought out contact tracing. Even the Germans got that bit wrong tbh.

It's also incredible how many countries that were given kudos for a good response in the first wave have been absolutely battered this time round - Germany, Czechia, Denmark, etc. In fact the only countries in Europe that have done well both times are Norway and Finland (and Belarus amusingly).

I wouldn't trust any data out of Belarus tbh

 

[Deebs]

Fucking hell, didn't take long

Covid: Wrexham vaccine production resumes after suspect package

The Army sends a bomb disposal unit to a site where the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is produced.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Deebs]

Also watched this the other week, not sure it's been posted, well worth a watch.

BBC One - Panorama, The Race for a Vaccine

Panorama tells the inside story of the development of the Oxford vaccine against Covid-19.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Scouse]

Fucking hell, didn't take long

Covid: Wrexham vaccine production resumes after suspect package

The Army sends a bomb disposal unit to a site where the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is produced.

www.bbc.co.uk

Knowing Wrexham, someone probably put their McD's in a duffel bag and dropped it nearby and the po po have rocked up to detonate a chav burger

 

[Embattle]

Britain and EU clash over claims to UK-produced Covid vaccine

EU health commissioner dismisses AstraZeneca argument it is contractually obliged to supply UK first

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tay]

I prefer the Japan model myself. Even more densely populated island (although considering the state of S Korea's only land border, you could term them as an island), with an ageing population similar to ours at a similar latitude and a slightly less authoritarian strategy, backed up by well thought out contact tracing. Even the Germans got that bit wrong tbh.

It's also incredible how many countries that were given kudos for a good response in the first wave have been absolutely battered this time round - Germany, Czechia, Denmark, etc. In fact the only countries in Europe that have done well both times are Norway and Finland (and Belarus amusingly).

Asia is different though, they have been prepared for many many years, it had little to do with the WHO warnings. They have been wearing masks for a couple of decades. Sars, Mers, Bird flu etc - "generally' whent he population is told to do something they pretty much do it without question.

I left Hong Kong in 1994 and people were wearing masks on the MTR and where clusters of people mingled. Given HK's population density their death tolls is pretty damned in impressive. They didnt shut the borders they didnt do many of the things that have been suggest elsewhere in the thread. Yet they make switzerlands figures look daft.

People listening and doing is the key there, that isnt the case here. Not by a long shot.

 

[Tay]

Fucking hell, didn't take long

Covid: Wrexham vaccine production resumes after suspect package

The Army sends a bomb disposal unit to a site where the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is produced.

www.bbc.co.uk

I blame the EU sympathisers ^^ or MacDonalds as previously mentioned !!

 

[Aoami]

Jingoism is back babeh

 

[Tay]

I do wonder where people get their facts from regarding following the rules, firstly I would question if people know them or understand them all but I think you would be right many people aren't attending raves or parties but people probably are breaking what would be considered the minor rules every now and again or at least the spirit of the rules in my opinion.

I think thats a given, but nobody likes to admit that, I occasionally see family friends out walking dogs at the same time as myself, given were 50 feet away from them and walk the same places its going to happen at some point.
I often walk with them for a bit, but as her husband works at the same hospital as my wife, putting a 100 feet cordon around us seems somewhat pointless.

When you consider the R number, out co-incidental meet pales in comparison to the 50, 100, 500 people raves/parties, 2 people outside in the countryside walking dogs isn't quite in the same league but we still keep far enough apart to hold a conversation.

 

[Ormorof]

In a clusterfuck of government advice the central gov (of Finland ) said yesterday that all non essential private events should be postponed, including kids activities. Today this was confirmed by the regional medical association. On the same day the city councils of the three capital region cities jointly announce the opposite that kids and private events should go ahead

Now no one has any idea what to do or which guide to follow

 

[Bodhi]

Remember all the panic before Xmas about the Kent variant being 70% more transmissible? Some Dutch scientists have taken a look, and don't entirely agree:

'Nog veel onduidelijk over besmettelijkheid Britse coronavariant'

Er is nog veel onduidelijk over de werkelijke besmettelijkheid van de Britse coronavariant. De besmettelijkheid is afhankelijk van verschillende factoren en...

www.bnr.nl

For those who's Google Translate skills are lacking, they refined the 70% figure to......6 percent. Judging by a report in The Times, Swedish scientists have found something similar.

What's that phrase again if this is accurate? Oh yeah - they were out by a Ferguson.

 

[Embattle]

It seems AZ is going to be in for more browbeating at this evening's meeting, I'm not sure what more can ultimately be said that'll change anything.

 

[caLLous]

Remember all the panic before Xmas about the Kent variant being 70% more transmissible? Some Dutch scientists have taken a look, and don't entirely agree:

'Nog veel onduidelijk over besmettelijkheid Britse coronavariant'

Er is nog veel onduidelijk over de werkelijke besmettelijkheid van de Britse coronavariant. De besmettelijkheid is afhankelijk van verschillende factoren en...

www.bnr.nl

For those who's Google Translate skills are lacking, they refined the 70% figure to......6 percent. Judging by a report in The Times, Swedish scientists have found something similar.

What's that phrase again if this is accurate? Oh yeah - they were out by a Ferguson.

I said at the time (maybe not here) that I wouldn't have put it past the government to exaggerate the threat posed by the new variant just so Boris could "cancel Christmas" without it looking like yet another u-turn.