Politics Coronavirus

Bodhi

Once agreed with Scouse and a LibDem at same time
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Here they go again, one man with SUSPECTED covid caused hearing loss and its a headline.

It's unlikely to be COVID, and more likely to be one of the treatments that gets used in ICU:


Gentamicin is recommended for use in patients who have severe hospital acquired pneumonia, see below:


Sadly "Patient suffers from rare side effect of treatment" is a bit less scary than blaming it on the 'rona.
 

Gwadien

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Just for illustration purposes.
No biggie..move on.
If you actually read it;

'The finding was based on the assumption that all lockdown measures currently in place would be lifted, leaving the virus unchecked from now until January.'

So yes, if you want to get your way and lift all the lockdown rules, then that I'm sure he will stand by his findings.
 

Scouse

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Just for illustration purposes.
No biggie..move on.
Don't see what the problem is.

" it was an extreme scenario that was only included 'for illustration' "

If politicians want to use that to justify something then that's not the scientist who's at fault. His duty is to explain things, it's their duty to make the correct decisions based on clear explanations.

I don't include certain figures in my projections to the executive leadership because I want to drive certain outcomes (basically, I'm managing upwards). But scientists don't have that luxury - they have no option but to present facts as clearly as possible.

Bascially this guy is saying "shit, they're misusing what I clearly put in there to illustrate things". It's NOT a science failing. It's a political failing.

Of which the Tories are consistently guilty.
 

BloodOmen

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*sigh* I shouldn't have to say this at this point, but:

There's no evidence that people simply can't get this more than once yet. And some people have gotten it more than once.

That's why herd immunity was abandoned.
Actually I believe a guy in China has had it twice, whether it was different strains or not i'm not sure.
 

Bodhi

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Don't see what the problem is.

" it was an extreme scenario that was only included 'for illustration' "

If politicians want to use that to justify something then that's not the scientist who's at fault. His duty is to explain things, it's their duty to make the correct decisions based on clear explanations.

I don't include certain figures in my projections to the executive leadership because I want to drive certain outcomes (basically, I'm managing upwards). But scientists don't have that luxury - they have no option but to present facts as clearly as possible.

Bascially this guy is saying "shit, they're misusing what I clearly put in there to illustrate things". It's NOT a science failing. It's a political failing.

Of which the Tories are consistently guilty.
I'd say presenting the output from a computer model as "fact" with error bars stretching between 3,000 and 107,000 is a pretty big failing of science tbh.
 

Scouse

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I'd say presenting the output from a computer model as "fact" with error bars stretching between 3,000 and 107,000 is a pretty big failing of science tbh.
Disagree completely.

If you say "for illustration purposes, this is what our projections tell us the difference between doing nothing and doing full lockdown - and we're using this to illustrate this specific thing to help you understand these, more realistic models" then it's not only not a failing - it's just a simple, normal step that humans use to help make their points understood.

If politicians then take that out of context, because they're either 1) idiots or 2) corrupt and the message is self-serving then it's 100% their fault.

When they do that, then blame the scientists for what they did, then that's the sort of time where you get pissy at me for wishing death on them and their families - because humans that do that to control other humans are some of the lowest of the low. Certainly worse than paedos - who only fuck a handful of children.

Corrupt, lying politicians fuck over whole populations and cause widespread suffering and death.
 

Bodhi

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Disagree completely.

If you say "for illustration purposes, this is what our projections tell us the difference between doing nothing and doing full lockdown - and we're using this to illustrate this specific thing to help you understand these, more realistic models" then it's not only not a failing - it's just a simple, normal step that humans use to help make their points understood.

If politicians then take that out of context, because they're either 1) idiots or 2) corrupt and the message is self-serving then it's 100% their fault.

When they do that, then blame the scientists for what they did, then that's the sort of time where you get pissy at me for wishing death on them and their families - because humans that do that to control other humans are some of the lowest of the low. Certainly worse than paedos - who only fuck a handful of children.

Corrupt, lying politicians fuck over whole populations and cause widespread suffering and death.
Not entirely sure how that word salad you've just comes up with in any way makes the size of those error bars anything more than a finger in the air projection that's likely to be just as wrong as every other projections we've been given.
 

Scouse

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Not entirely sure how that word salad you've just comes up with in any way makes the size of those error bars anything more than a finger in the air projection that's likely to be just as wrong as every other projections we've been given.
You're being a wilful prick.

The scientist who did the study said this illustration was:" based on the assumption that all lockdown measures currently in place would be lifted, leaving the virus unchecked from now until January. Professor Keeling noted in the paper that this worst-case scenario would never be allowed to play out without the Government intervening"

So, if people are abusing it, it's not his fault. Period.
 

Scouse

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Not really. First lockdown we were told "don't fucking go anywhere" - and the po-po were stopping people from outside of wales coming into wales.

So, first time since last time?
 

Moriath

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Not really. First lockdown we were told "don't fucking go anywhere" - and the po-po were stopping people from outside of wales coming into wales.

So, first time since last time?
I dont see how he has jurisdiction over people from liverpool for example. Does the devolution include migration and borders?
 

Scouse

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I dont see how he has jurisdiction over people from liverpool for example. Does the devolution include migration and borders?
It's not about hard power. It's about soft power and messaging.

I don't know what emergency powers they've been granted are - but I suspect the po-po can heavily fine anyone who breaks their messaging.

But it's the right thing to do, no? I can't leave Conwy borough - but people from Liverpool & Manchester with ten times the Covid rate, can come here?
 

Gray

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Halton is one of the places affected by this which is *NOW* inside the Liverpool City boundaries... Not that anyone from my town (Widnes/Halton) had any say in being integrated into Liverpool City as we consider ourselves part of Cheshire/Lancashire and definitely not Merseyside...

However our MP is causing a stink thankfully saying we have nothing to do with Liverpool City itself and our own cases are quite low in comparison to the rest of the Merseyside areas. I think Warrington have also been affected by this - But likely only because they are one of the main hospitals in this area outside of Whiston Hospital (Again in a Merseyside area*).
 

Scouse

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Halton

Who gives a stuff whether you consider yourself merseyside or lancashire though. I know @Job would fully support you in this but frankly, it doesn't matter. It's so close to scouseland that mixing is clearly happening.
 

Moriath

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It's not about hard power. It's about soft power and messaging.

I don't know what emergency powers they've been granted are - but I suspect the po-po can heavily fine anyone who breaks their messaging.

But it's the right thing to do, no? I can't leave Conwy borough - but people from Liverpool & Manchester with ten times the Covid rate, can come here?
Wasnt worried about the moral wrong or right. Just wondered what powers it was done under.
most people shouldnt be travelling further than necessary really and it should have been the case all through the summer. But particularly now.
 

Job

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Tbh tier 3 isnt much more anyway.
Its only drink exclusive pubs that have to close, all the cafes are open
No visiting other households.
No ones going to take an ounce of notice, theyve quietly reinstated social bubbles and asked us not to leave the area.
Again will be totally ignored.
Will affect young ones looking to get pissed in bars, it will be house parties all over the area.


I dont blame them, if youre likely to die from it then stay in and talk through the window, luckily 90% of those peoole will be retired anyway
 

Scouse

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Again will be totally ignored.
By you and people like you maybe.

Everyone I know (bar my sister) has been 100% compliant since the first ask.
 

Job

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I have , didnt go to Wales once under original lockdown, but I heard down the grapevine that the mtb centres were full of English as usual
 

Bodhi

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Bit of real science, based on empirical data and everything:


WHO publish a report to work out the IFR of SARS-Cov 2, and put it at around 0.23% across 70+ studies. Ignoring the fact that is incredibly close to another respiratory illness we don't mention, I found the last paragraph especially interesting:

Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September, 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.
The last part sounds like an infamous declaration that Google made difficult to find does it not?
 

Bodhi

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Oh, and in a shock to absolutely no-one who knows anything about immunology:

 

Gwadien

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My covid test came in Amazon packaging.

Explains it all really.
 

Scouse

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I have , didnt go to Wales once under original lockdown, but I heard down the grapevine that the mtb centres were full of English as usual
Oh, so it's everyone else ignoring it again?

To put your mind at rest - I live a stones throw from Penmachno and the Marin. During the original lockdown they were both dead. When lockdown finished they were both rammed as people were desparate to get out.

Right now, they're both dead again.

Seems to me that people are generally pretty good.
 

Bodhi

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So you've found another pointless hill to die on then @Bodhi old bean.

IFR doesn't tell the whole story, as we've already covered.
And you were just as incorrect then as you are now.
 

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