Politics Coronavirus

[Bodhi]

You can setup a database with the excel structure in minutes. And remove the limits altogether.

would take longer to make it relational. But a single table would function better than an excel spreadsheet and not have limits in size. Can partition the big table to make it more efficient to query. Simples.

We can yes. Government IT Departments? Not so much.

 

[Wij]

We can yes. Government IT Departments? Not so much.

So it's Dido Harding overseeing incompetent IT again?

 

[Bodhi]

So it's Dido Harding overseeing incompetent IT again?

As much as I'd love to blame the incompetent buffoon, these Excel sheets were set up before she was in charge, so on Duncan Selbie's watch.

I was under the impression Dido was looking after the replacement for PHE, not PHE itself.

 

[Moriath]

He is actually right in this instance however - Deaths / Number of Infections is the IFR, or Infection Fatality Rate - which going by the WHO's numbers is around 0.125.

It is a touch lower than I have seen in other studies - for eg Estimating the infection fatality ratio in England - CEBM - we more typically see it around 0.3 - 0.4, but they are at pains to point out it is an estimate.

That other winter illness that must not be named is typically around 0.1-0.2 % IFR for reference. So COVID could be a touch higher, but not worth all the mass hysteria, general bedwetting and turning off Western Civilisation for what is basically a nasty cold.

Its that low because we have the intensive care beds for all who need it. If we let it run rampant then there wouldnt be the care beds for all who need it to survive and the death rate would be a lot higher. As it is at the moment usual yearly flu deaths are about 650k a year. So far in 9 months covid is over a million with all the mitigation countries have been putting in. It would be a lot higher if we just let it run through the world

 

[Embattle]

Trump Covid post deleted by Facebook and hidden by Twitter

Twitter hid an identical post saying virus was less lethal than the flu season in most populations.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bodhi]

Gotta love this place - standard epidemiological stats are "Bullshit" apparently.

 

[Moriath]

Gotta love this place - standard epidemiological stats are "Bullshit" apparently.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

up to ten times the flu fatality according to john hopkins.

 

[Gwadien]

Gotta love this place - standard epidemiological stats are "Bullshit" apparently.

Don't you accept that maybe the death rate isn't so high because

all the mass hysteria, general bedwetting and turning off Western Civilisation for what is basically a nasty cold.

 

[Yoni]

Cases starting to rise in Sweden now they have stated they expect to keep current restrictions in place for at least another year with additional targeted restrictions when spikes occure... - they have introduced a new one that if you are in a shared household where one person gets CV19, then the rest of the household should stay home for at least 7 days - getting a test after 5 days (they are very specific on this). I thought this had been in place the whole time as it is common sense and I prevented employees from working when their kids / partners have been sick with a cold during the course of this cv19 journey...

 

[Embattle]

Gotta love this place - standard epidemiological stats are "Bullshit" apparently.

No just the way you and one other tend to try and use them, you've got great company.

 

[Bodhi]

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

up to ten times the flu fatality according to john hopkins.

"Up to 10 times" could also mean 1.1 times, that is impressively vague language - which was why I provided the actual data so we can quantify what we are talking about here. For the record, I have never agreed with the "Just a flu" statement for two reasons - 1) It's a different virus, 2) There's no "just" about flu, it's a fucking nasty virus in its own right. The worst flu pandemics (Spanish, Hong Kong, etc) have killed more than COVID ever will, and your link itself paints a picture of some of the after effects, so it's hardly a walk in the park. However SARS-COV 2 is a respiratory illness just like colds and flu, so comparisons are inevitable.

I get the panic in March, as it was a new virus and China hadn't exactly been helpful with the flow of information - and whilst I hated the idea of lockdown, I got it and went along with it. However after 6 months SARS-CoV 2 has become pretty much the most studied virus in history, and we know so much about who is at risk, how to treat it, who is already immune it seems absolutely retarded to be even considering blanket restrictions again considering the collateral damage they cause in suicides, mental health issues, economic ruin, missed cancer treatments, lack of access to a GP and all the associated uncertainty.

We need to stop relying on computer models some failed physicist hacked together 15 years ago and still hasn't got working properly, and start looking at the actual evidence in front of us. If I was in charge, the restrictions would be:

- Wash your hands
- Respect Personal Space
- Turn care homes into effective oil rigs with visitation rights
- Restrict gatherings to 30 people

Plus testing would only return positives if people were infectious by changing the Cycle Threshold as Spain have, and a "case" would only be someone who requires medical attention.

Other than that, virus gonna virus, so let's protect those at risk but otherwise crack on eh?

 

[Job]

Flu deaths are mostly modelled around the world rather than direct death stats and I find it hard to believe India and Africa have such low death rates for covid
104 thousand out of 1.4 billion

Africa is also astounding.

37K dead.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Its not very lethal to black people....if they live in Africa.

 

[Bodhi]

Flu deaths are mostly modelled around the world rather than direct death stats and I find it hard to believe India and Africa have such low death rates for covid
104 thousand out of 1.4 billion

Africa is also astounding.

37K dead.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Its not very lethal to black people....if they live in Africa.

Oh my word. Quite easily explained if you compare the average life expectancy in Africa to the average age of someone passing away from COVID.

 

[Job]

This is probably the most balanced humour seen in the UK for 10 years.

It works because they are puppets, they cant cancel the voice actors and the writers are removed enough so the left cant have a body to burn.

This is so fucking refreshing.

View: https://streamable.com/89o5ig

 

[Job]

You would think that, its almost as if someones scared to say it.

 

[Job]

In the headline.

 

[dysfunction]

What are you babbling about??
You've lost it

 

[dysfunction]

This is probably the most balanced humour seen in the UK for 10 years.

It works because they are puppets, they cant cancel the voice actors and the writers are removed enough so the left cant have a body to burn.

This is so fucking refreshing.

View: https://streamable.com/89o5ig

Um wrong thread numpty

 

[Wij]

View: https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1313897715470827521

 

[Moriath]

 

[Scouse]

Can you even read that graph @Job?

Owt to say @Bodhi?


@Moriath - if you could source the one of comparative infection rates we could shit this argument down on data

 

[Job]

Once Id worked out they were studies not people with covid
Poor old verity.
Completely pointless considering the total lack of data on possible infection rates.
A lot of guesswork there.
A quick look at any individual situation where people are isolated shows fatility rates for under 16yrs olds in the 0.00000 region.

 

[dysfunction]

Once Id worked out they were studies not people with covid
Poor old verity.
Completely pointless considering the total lack of data on possible infection rates.
A lot of guesswork there.
A quick look at any individual situation where people are isolated shows fatility rates for under 16yrs olds in the 0.00000 region.

So in summary you have been talking bullshit

 

[Scouse]

So in summary you have been talking bullshit

When something (clear data) hits him square in the face then he has a little wobble, writes a post that is barely intelligable then carries on as normal, disregarding the thing that shook his reality...

 

[Bodhi]

Can you even read that graph @Job?

Owt to say @Bodhi?


@Moriath - if you could source the one of comparative infection rates we could shit this argument down on data

Not an entirely useful random graph plucked from the internet, mostly as there is no time series involved - the IFR for COVID has been falling as the pandemic goes on - see below from the Uni of Oxford:

Estimating the infection fatality ratio in England - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Daniel Howdon, Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan Summary We recently presented an estimate of recent declining trends in the case fatality

www.cebm.net

They have it between 0.3 and 0.49, depending on if you use ONS or MRC data - still nowhere near the 1 - 2% Ferguson used for his scary models. So as I said, slightly above the flu but not much - as that graph shows.

However I refer you to my original point, which was using the numbers estimated by the WHO in the press conference posted. You've been down on your knees fellating the "super competent" WHO all the way throughout this pandemic, I'm assuming you're dropping them now as they've said something you don't agree with? Is it becuase the WHO are recommending the Swedish approach now rather than New Zealand?

Still not seeing any evidence that this is worth shutting Western Civilisation down for - mainly as there isn't any.

 

[Deebs]

I will just leave this here:

Covid deaths three times higher than flu and pneumonia

Office for National Statistics data looked at the underlying cause of death in England and Wales.

www.bbc.co.uk

And the dataset:

Deaths due to COVID-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of death occurrences in England and Wales due to coronavirus (COVID-19) and influenza and pneumonia, by age, sex and place of death.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[Yoni]

I agree with Bodhi's point of view - just like all data / statistics they can be manipulated to support any view point and yes Scouse your lack of agreement with WHO now they have modified their view is noticable.

@Deebs this is to be expected when the country during flu season due to lockdown. Addtionally and i can not find the information I read several months ago but if i remember correctly it was whether it was possible to have flu and covid in the same host - iirc the report stated it was possible but very very unlikely. So this combined with social distancing and good hygiene will give reduced flu by the multiples in that report.

In Sweden they are concerned with flu BUT more so with Norovirus (winter vomiting disease -vinter kräkningar) - this also came to a sharp stop when the recomendations came in for people to work from home, wash their hands and keep distance.

 

[Deebs]

I agree with Bodhi's point of view - just like all data / statistics they can be manipulated to support any view point and yes Scouse your lack of agreement with WHO now they have modified their view is noticable.

@Deebs this is to be expected when the country during flu season due to lockdown. Addtionally and i can not find the information I read several months ago but if i remember correctly it was whether it was possible to have flu and covid in the same host - iirc the report stated it was possible but very very unlikely. So this combined with social distancing and good hygiene will give reduced flu by the multiples in that report.

In Sweden they are concerned with flu BUT more so with Norovirus (winter vomiting disease -vinter kräkningar) - this also came to a sharp stop when the recomendations came in for people to work from home, wash their hands and keep distance.

Don't get me wrong, I am not asking for a lockdown. I just follow guidance and use my common sense (shame that lots of others don't). My concern is the downplaying of just how deadly Covid-19 is.

"The mortality rate for Covid-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average," said Sarah Caul, from the ONS.

 

[Yoni]

Don't get me wrong, I am not asking for a lockdown. I just follow guidance and use my common sense (shame that lots of others don't). My concern is the downplaying of just how deadly Covid-19 is.

I am not disputing this - it is just that it can not be compared with this years flu either comparing with previous 5 year is a better comparison. The lockdowns and recommendations (if in Sweden) had a hugh positive effect on the normal winter illnesses

 

[Bodhi]

Don't get me wrong, I am not asking for a lockdown. I just follow guidance and use my common sense (shame that lots of others don't). My concern is the downplaying of just how deadly Covid-19 is.

As I said, comparing COVID to flu isn't downplaying how deadly COVID is - as flu itself is a fucking nasty disease also.