Bird Flu threat to Freddys!?

Kronic

Loyal Freddie
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Messages
75
Woops forgot the *100, but still better odds than almost 1% of the population
 

Tilda

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
5,755
As I send in a previous post however, the death rate isn't 0.083, its 51% or thereabouts.
Now, its perfectly possible that a mutant bird flu's kill rate would fall, however it could also rise, making working with the figure of 50,000 stupidly pointless.
If anything work with the current deaths % of 51%, rather than a number plucked from thin air.
 

DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
17,359
Tilda said:
Ohh purlease.
How many people do you know who have had a cold or flu in the last 4 months? Thats how common it could be. And assuming you do get it, the death rate is around 50% so you're probably more likely to die from it that terrorism, sars or bse.
Actually? Absolutely no-one. Plenty of people with colds that they think are flu. So, not too worried about how common it is.

Tilda said:
Hey, lets do some maths.
Died in terrorism last year: 625
Now for bird flu: WHO estimate of an infection rate of 25% (14.5 million people) and the current mortality rate of 51%, you get around 7.4 million UK deaths.
Which is a tad more that sars, bse and terrorism put together.
If it mutates. But you're missing the point. Culture of fear.

Tilda said:
I dont understand what you mean by "get", 1 in 3 people will suffer cancer, however many will recover, it dosn't have an overall 50% death rate.
Similarly, cancer can be treated, however, there is no instant cure for bird flu even after it mutates you're talking atleast 6-8 months for a viable vaccine to be made in any significan quantites.
The fact that people 'recover' from cancer is entirely besides the point. As a real public health threat it affects far more of us than hypothetical pandemics but it doesn't sell newspapers does it?

Tilda said:
I'm not sure if you're just guessing about the reasonably healthy thing, but if you read the research papers, depending on how it mutates it can change its infection pattern from the old and the young, to a middle age range.
So you're fucked no matter what so what's the point in worrying?

Tilda said:
I'm not a pussy, and I dont go around worrying about what the next horific thing I might die of is. However the lack of any concern you show is worrying. What do you epect to do? carry on as if nothings happening?
Yup.
 

tris-

Failed Geordie and Parmothief
Joined
Jan 2, 2004
Messages
15,260
why be concerned or worried? if i worry it wont make me immune or develop a magic cure over night. id rather concentrate on having fun and if i die next month to this then shit happens, i couldnt really care.
 

Chilly

Balls of steel
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
9,046
Trem said:
Why would the Czechs ban the sale of it though?
They have banned it, I presume, to stop morally questionable stockpiling now with a view to sell for stupid prices if the pandemic breaks - which is a perfectly sensible thing to do (banning the retail, that is, not the buying for profit). It also means there will be more for authorities to buy in bulk and distribute to where it is needed (hospitals), instead of garages of ebayers.
 

rynnor

Rockhound
Moderator
Joined
Dec 26, 2003
Messages
9,353
Chilly said:
They have banned it, I presume, to stop morally questionable stockpiling now with a view to sell for stupid prices if the pandemic breaks - which is a perfectly sensible thing to do (banning the retail, that is, not the buying for profit). It also means there will be more for authorities to buy in bulk and distribute to where it is needed (hospitals), instead of garages of ebayers.
Actually demand from private buyers may well be the thing that pushes roche to license tamiflu to generic drug producers. Governments have been extremely slow to act so far - most havent bought any and even the uk has only enough for about 4% of its population to have 1 course.
 

rynnor

Rockhound
Moderator
Joined
Dec 26, 2003
Messages
9,353
DaGaffer said:
The fact that people 'recover' from cancer is entirely besides the point. As a real public health threat it affects far more of us than hypothetical pandemics but it doesn't sell newspapers does it?
Well actually I think youll find theres something cancer related in the papers pretty much everyday if you read them.

Cancer is not comparable to an infection - you cant 'catch' cancer from other people and its a known quantity in our society - if you get it you have a fair idea of your chances and there are tried and tested treatment regimes.

You dont get clusters of cancers occuring within a few months and overwhelming the health service - you dont get quarantined if you visit someone who has cancer.

Cancers arent associated with the young n healthy - its seen by and large as something that affects the middle aged and old people.

Think of the disruption the unexpected death of a hundred people on July 7th made then imagine what kind of fear a Pandemic can generate - it will disrupt all our lives wether we catch it or not - I'm not a prophet of doom I just want people to think about it while theres still time to make preparations.
 

Tom

I am a FH squatter
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
16,088
I'd just like to point out that I have never, ever, had the Flu. Not ever. I've had plenty of colds, but thats it. Apart from food poisoning a couple of years ago (dodgy eggs from Tesco) that lasted a few days, I haven't been ill with anything other than a cold since I was aged 12.

I'm a firm believer in 'a bit of dirt won't hurt' and refuse to use anything other than soapy water to wash surfaces in my house. I also don't have air fresheners and stuff like that, I'd rather open a window. Also (yawn) I eat meat, fish, veg, fruit, dairy, and thats about it.

I'm still going to take precautions though, and thats why I got the Tamiflu tablets. On the face of it £40 is fuck all, some people spend that on a Friday night.
 

tris-

Failed Geordie and Parmothief
Joined
Jan 2, 2004
Messages
15,260
quite right, tom. may aswell stay in one night and buy those tablets. what gets on my tail though is people worrying when it wont do a sodding thing. and then telling me they are worried about me not being worried, or something.

i would say my immune system is strong too. i get a sore throat about once a year, twice is if im unlucky. i dont know why though, i dont remember playing in the mud and stuff when i was little.
 

Rubber Bullets

FH is my second home
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
1,417
If you don't want toworry Tris, then good on yer. You're right, it won't do a bit of good. I wish I could feel the same way, but like Trem and others here, I'm not worried for me. I've got parents in their late 70's and a daughter (who is my world) under five. For them this thing terrifys me, and I know that it isn't a rational fear.

This article on the BBC helps put the whole thing in a bit of perspective, at least for me. Apparently, we hhave been told, jet travel etc will result in this bird flu getting further than the 1918 Spanish flu, and yet that article states that in 1918 25-30% of the worlds population were infected. In this country 250,000 people died, well below estimates we are reading now, despite advances in antiviral treatments,and far better communictions, and understanding.

40,000,000 died in that pandemic, there have been 2 since, 2 million died in the next and 1 million in the last one in 1968-9. I can't help noticing a trend there.

The fact is that no one knows, for every expert predicting the worst there will be one predicting that it'll never happen, the truth will lie in between, but the worst will be what gets reported.

The fact is though that I can rationalise till the cows come home, but it will not stop me fearing for the life of my beautiful daughter :(

RB
 

tris-

Failed Geordie and Parmothief
Joined
Jan 2, 2004
Messages
15,260
my parents are old too. ofcourse i will be sad if they die to it. but my worrying wont make a thing better for them. all i can do is hope it doesnt happen, but if it does then it does.

i could worry for years and nothing happens, ever. time better spent doing other stuff imo ;) i.e. spending some fucking good quality time with your daughter.
 

DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
17,359
Rubber Bullets said:
40,000,000 died in that pandemic, there have been 2 since, 2 million died in the next and 1 million in the last one in 1968-9. I can't help noticing a trend there.

RB
Yeah, a trend that is emphatically down against a rising population line.
 

Talyn

Can't get enough of FH
Joined
Dec 31, 2003
Messages
608
Just thought it might take your minds off the dreaded bird flu, and give you all something else to worry about instead. If it's not bird-flu, we'll get mad cow disease from beef, and salmonella (or however it's spelt) from eggs, and what with the risk of catching some life threatening disease from anything that we come into contact with ever, and every bleeding week theres some thing that's been found that's going to kill the entire human race... blah blah blah...

I heard it all before in the 80's when AIDS was going to kill some proportionate amount of the worlds population. Guess what, it didn't. Yes, people died, yes there was suffering. Yes, there still is. But hey, what with aids, cancer, alchohol, drugs, pollution, global warming, and huge number of other things, this is just another 'frightener' that I suspect will end up being nothing more than 'history' in about 5 years time.

I'm a geek, I stay in, I have no relations at all with birds, (the one with wings..um, i mean the ones covered in feathers and can fly) and if it mutates and kills us all then so be it.

I have too many other things to worry about and this one is tbh, pretty low on my list of priorities. Once someone from the UK is found to be infected, once we have proof that it's actually affecting humans in reasonable numbers, maybe... just maybe then I'll start on the Lemsips.

In the mean time, there are more interesting ways for the world to be destroyed, and I thought I'd share some interesting worst case scenarios...
 

old.Tohtori

FH is my second home
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
45,210
If i get it, and die, then i die.

If i get it, don't die, i be stlong.

If i don't get it....then i just don't get it.

Its not that difficult.
 

Trem

That there, that's not me.
Moderator
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,980
What if you had a kid?

What if your kid got it?

What if your kid died?

I would be exactly the same as all you others who aren't worrying IF I DIDN'T HAVE A SON!!!

But I do, so I will worry, jesus I even worry when Samm takes him around the block.

Its my perogative to worry.
 

TdC

Trem's hunky sex love muffin
Joined
Dec 20, 2003
Messages
30,693
relax Tremzor, ickle Trem will live to steal your beer and swipe the car keys yet. the worry now will be as nothing compared to then, so you may as well just chill ;)
 

old.Tohtori

FH is my second home
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
45,210
Ofcourse not saying that people shouldn't worry, just personally giving my opinion on the matter.

Personal beliefs also come into place if a loved one, mother, brother, relative, kid would die. I wouldn't feel sad. Ofcourse i would miss them from time to time, but i never have or will grieve death.
 

DaGaffer

Down With That Sorta Thing
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
17,359
old.Tohtori said:
Ofcourse not saying that people shouldn't worry, just personally giving my opinion on the matter.

Personal beliefs also come into place if a loved one, mother, brother, relative, kid would die. I wouldn't feel sad. Ofcourse i would miss them from time to time, but i never have or will grieve death.
Yeah but you're Finnish, you lot make the most repressed Englishman look like Italians.
 

old.Tohtori

FH is my second home
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
45,210
DaGaffer said:
Yeah but you're Finnish, you lot make the most repressed Englishman look like Italians.
Actually it has nothing to do about being finnish, finnish are quite emotional if the situation so requires.

My beliefs are "religion" based, but, enough of that or this will turn into yet another "wtf you believe in wrong god" thing.

Though i agree that we are a cold race, but you try living in the dark 80% of the time while the weather could freeze the balls of a brass monkey :D
 

TdC

Trem's hunky sex love muffin
Joined
Dec 20, 2003
Messages
30,693
no way! I've seen pics of finnish girls! they can't be that cold surely!



:(
 

Trem

That there, that's not me.
Moderator
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
8,980
What Teedles said!

I would be smiling like a bastard 24 hours a day if I was surrounded by Finnish girls.

I wasn't having a go Tohtori, I also don't really grieve death, not because I am religious just because its natural etc. But the love a parent has for his/her child just does not compare to anything I have ever known. I thought I loved my mum/dad/mrs until my son was born and then I realised what love is.

I care for everyone else deeply but compared to my son I don't love them.

With love comes worry, also natural.

*bums TDC*
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top Bottom