Bird Flu threat to Freddys!?

Big G

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Since the first human cases appeared in the current outbreak in 2004, more than half those infected have died. Vietnam is worst affected so far.

Almost all victims were in close contact with infected birds.
That sounds reassuring in a way, the fact that almost all the dead people were in close proximity of the birds.

Trem, being a severe chicken choker, clearly has no chance :(....

...sorry that joke was fowl....

baha!
 

Tilda

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Big G said:
That sounds reassuring in a way, the fact that almost all the dead people were in close proximity of the birds.

Trem, being a severe chicken choker, clearly has no chance :(....

...sorry that joke was fowl....

baha!
Big G, the thing is, this is bird flu iirc.
Which yes, all you have to do is avoid birds and you should be fine.
Whats worrying people is when this mutates/evolves etc to be able to be transmitted between humans. Thats when things gets worrying.

With over a 50% mortality rate, and the government estimating 50,000 deaths for a mortality rate of 0.34%(i think) someone do the maths :p
 

DaGaffer

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Oh get over it. If it mutates and if you get it and you're in reasonable health you probably won't die. Just like you probably won't get killed by terrorists or SARS or BSE or fucking mutant killer anchovies. World's full of pussies worrying about their fucking mortality every day. If you want to worry about something, worry about cancer, that will get one in three of us.
 

Tom

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Er no, cancer won't get one in three. One in three may develop it and recover....
 

Big G

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DaGaffer said:
Oh get over it. If it mutates and if you get it and you're in reasonable health you probably won't die. Just like you probably won't get killed by terrorists or SARS or BSE or fucking mutant killer anchovies. World's full of pussies worrying about their fucking mortality every day. If you want to worry about something, worry about cancer, that will get one in three of us.
I mostly agree.
 

Tilda

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DaGaffer said:
Oh get over it. If it mutates and if you get it and you're in reasonable health you probably won't die. Just like you probably won't get killed by terrorists or SARS or BSE or fucking mutant killer anchovies. World's full of pussies worrying about their fucking mortality every day. If you want to worry about something, worry about cancer, that will get one in three of us.
Ohh purlease.
How many people do you know who have had a cold or flu in the last 4 months? Thats how common it could be. And assuming you do get it, the death rate is around 50% so you're probably more likely to die from it that terrorism, sars or bse.
Hey, lets do some maths.
Died in terrorism last year: 625
Now for bird flu: WHO estimate of an infection rate of 25% (14.5 million people) and the current mortality rate of 51%, you get around 7.4 million UK deaths.
Which is a tad more that sars, bse and terrorism put together.

I dont understand what you mean by "get", 1 in 3 people will suffer cancer, however many will recover, it dosn't have an overall 50% death rate.
Similarly, cancer can be treated, however, there is no instant cure for bird flu even after it mutates you're talking atleast 6-8 months for a viable vaccine to be made in any significan quantites. I'm not sure if you're just guessing about the reasonably healthy thing, but if you read the research papers, depending on how it mutates it can change its infection pattern from the old and the young, to a middle age range.
I'm not a pussy, and I dont go around worrying about what the next horific thing I might die of is. However the lack of any concern you show is worrying. What do you epect to do? carry on as if nothings happening?
 

Trem

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*chokes G's chicken*

I am a dad DaGaffer, like I said earlier, I worry about my son and in all honesty if anything happened to him it would kill me and Samm anyway. It's the way parents think and I want to at least have something there just in case.

*gives G herpes*
 

Big G

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Tilda said:
Now for bird flu: WHO estimate of an infection rate of 25% (14.5 million people)
who? :)

Joking aside, I think what DaGaffer is getting at is that although it's potentially threatening, you can't go around worrying about it. You could be dead tomorrow. Tens of thousands of people are seriously injured (thousands die) a year in car accidents, yet I don't bat an eyelid about getting in the car and nailing it.

It's also typical for the British media to start pouring out statistics and figures at a scary rate basically saying that we're all fucked.

"stay indoors!! the statistics say you're fucked!!

Lies, damn lies and statistics - the infection isn't anywhere fucking near the UK yet, but we're already talking like it has :).

It wouldn't suprise me if that turns out to be a total goose chase - pardon the fowl pun, hah, ba tum tish.

I'm here all week.
 

TdC

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a mortality rate of 51%? that prolly makes it the most deadly contagion on the planet. there are deadlier, but those tend to kill their hosts before the host can infect many others. quite an effective anti-epidemic that.

as for me, I more or less share DaGaffer's view, and Big G's expansion on it. I'm well aware of my own mortality tbh, but where G says "stay at home, the stats say you're fucked!" I say get the hell out of the house: most accidents occur in or around the home!!

:)
 
G

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I take it dagaffer wont be buying any Tamiflu then?

If the world scientists cannot create a vaccine then we will all be walking Zombies. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077402/

/me gets ready to enter the shopping mall.

Seriously though, who says they can create a vaccine, it may take them years or days. Hopefully the latter.
 

SAS

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When your times up, its up... nothing you can do about it so why worry?

Also the problem with bird flu will not be the flu itself, but the public. Mass panic, foot shortages e.t.c.
 

Tom

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Damn you Brooky, now I've got that 'dit dit dat di-di-di-dat di-di-di-dididididi-dat-dat' tune in my head.
 

Tom

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I wonder what it would be like though. The country would come to a standstill, people stockpiling food, refusing to leave their homes. No public events (footy etc), thefts, murders.

Many services would shut down completely, only the basics would be left- power, gas, water.
 

DaGaffer

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Big G said:
Joking aside, I think what DaGaffer is getting at is that although it's potentially threatening, you can't go around worrying about it. You could be dead tomorrow. Tens of thousands of people are seriously injured (thousands die) a year in car accidents, yet I don't bat an eyelid about getting in the car and nailing it.
Thank you. Feeling a bit raw today as my Dad's just gone in for a major op to have a tumor removed, and people running around like the sky's about to fall in get my goat at the best of times, so I apologise if I called you all pussies. You pussies ;)

Brooky said:
I take it dagaffer wont be buying any Tamiflu then?
No I won't be. I'm a healthy adult and I'm quite prepared to take my chances. You have my permission to laugh if I don't beat (the very long) odds.
 

TdC

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hopefully it would go nice and quiet for a while, but sadly I don't think that crime would die out. there's always some nut-bag who covets his neighbor's parsnips enough to brave bird-flu just to go out and get them :/
 

Turamber

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SAS said:
Also the problem with bird flu will not be the flu itself, but the public. Mass panic, foot shortages e.t.c.
Mine are size 12's so I'm hoping that I'll be okay.





/coat
 

Big G

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TdC said:
get the hell out of the house: most accidents occur in or around the home!!

:)
You'll be hiding in your gimp dungeon... ;)
 

yaruar

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Tom said:
I have a box of Tamiflu in my pantry. I thought it best to be on the safe side.
It's a shame there is no evidence whatsoever it will have any effect on this flu varient.

As for the spanish flu/young person thing, i seem to recall the major factor in the spanish flu epidemic was the proximity and movement of young males caused by the first world war which lead to it effecting them mainly.
 

Bodhi

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I think bird flu could kill us all!!!!!


But only after Al-Qaieda have blown us all up, we've all drowned cos teh nasty global warming has melted the ice caps, everyone has cancer from passive smoking, North Korea have blown everyone else up, most of France have mad cow disease, the animals have all died of foot and mouth and the last remaining human was killed by a speeding driver.

Basically, stop being stupid and don't listen to a word the scaremongers tell you.
 
G

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Tom said:
I wonder what it would be like though. The country would come to a standstill, people stockpiling food, refusing to leave their homes. No public events (footy etc), thefts, murders.

Many services would shut down completely, only the basics would be left- power, gas, water.
You been to Bradford lately?
 

JBP|

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As it stands at the moment unless you have a habit of playing around in bird shit your pretty much safe really.

If it mutates into a form where it could be caught and passed on by humans tamiflu is going to be of no use to you or anyone else for that matter.
 

rynnor

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JBP| said:
If it mutates into a form where it could be caught and passed on by humans tamiflu is going to be of no use to you or anyone else for that matter.
Why? Its a broad spectrum anti-viral drug that interfere's with a virus's ability to replicate itself thus giving the patients own immune system a greater chance of dealing with the infection. If you survive the initial infection you would then have antibodies to defend you from re-infection.

Despite its name it should have some effect on any viral infection not just flu - even unknown variants.
 

rynnor

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Big G said:
It's also typical for the British media to start pouring out statistics and figures at a scary rate basically saying that we're all fucked.

Lies, damn lies and statistics - the infection isn't anywhere fucking near the UK yet, but we're already talking like it has :).
Actually the stats the media have been putting round of 50K dead is the lowest possible number of deaths from a pandemic in the UK - if it happens its likely to be a lot higher.

As to if it will happen dont you get a little bit worried when senior members of the medical establishment say its just a matter of time?

I'm not worried for myself but I have kids and older members of my family who would be in the highest risk groups for fatalities so I'm not going to just ignore it now and possibly regret it badly in the future.
 

Big G

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Do you remember the crisis of the variant CJD epidemic in the UK and that the "best case" number infected could start at tens of thousands? Apparently, "leading experts" think that 37% of the population (probably about 20 million people) have the faulty genes to allow vCJD.

How many people have died? As of January this year, 148 people. Tragic as one death is, that's fuck all and hardly what I call epidemic or one third of the population.

That's why I don't pay much attention to figures. Yes, it's a serious threat, but Christ the media love sexing it up.
 

tris-

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there is about 60 million people in the UK. if a minimum of 50k died, that is about 0.83% of the population. now that doesnt seem as bad.

big numbers make people cry :(

should also add that your worrying wont stop people dieing. i hate the media, why cant they just report facts :(
 

nath

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So that's almost 1% of the population. That seems pretty fucking bad to me.

That said, I doubt it'll be that many.
 

Tom

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You need to put this into context - its all happened before, and killed more than a few people.
 

Big G

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Indeed Tom, but I think a combination of better drugs (tamiflu is better than a kick in the arse), better hospitals, better health generally, people living longer, better living conditions, better preperation, better education, better communication (internet/mobiles) will all in their own ways (big or small) help to prevent a repeat of last time.
 

Kronic

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tris- said:
there is about 60 million people in the UK. if a minimum of 50k died, that is about 0.83% of the population. now that doesnt seem as bad.

big numbers make people cry :(

should also add that your worrying wont stop people dieing. i hate the media, why cant they just report facts :(


50,000 out of 60,000,000 is 0.00083%
 

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