Bird Flu threat to Freddys!?

[rynnor]

Over half those who died in the 1918 pandemic were young adults so maybe it pays to be old sometimes ;P

I have had a worry about avian flu for some years now but the last few months make it increasingly disturbing mainly for the kids sake. The UK Government are not taking this seriously enough - I fear the same kind of mess we had over foot n mouth where it takes Blair a month or two to notice whats going on... However this time it will be you and me who pay the price.

Currently the UK Government are looking to stockpile just over 14 million courses of Tamiflu - its one of the latest generation of drugs that inhibit viral replication thus leading to a shorter duration of illness and less complications.

A course consists of 10 tablets - taken 2 a day for 5 days - it must be administered within 2 days of onset of influenza to have much effect.

Alternatively it can be used to prevent infection in the first place but this requires a tablet a day so a course only lasts 10 days. Its likely that key workers will get this preventative dose which will reduce the stocks very quickly even before it takes a hold on the general populace.

Roche (the manufacturers) do not have the capacity to supply the demand a pandemic would generate - a license must be sought to allow 'generic' drug producers to manufacture it. So far nothing has been done about the shortfall...

 

[tris-]

http://search.ebay.co.uk/search/sea.../ws/&fkr=1&from=R8&satitle=tamiflu&category0=

crazy. i remember last year someone posted about this and had a link to buy it online.

 

[old.user4556]

I'm trying not to get it too out of perspective; the media have a knack for over cooking every single story into hysteria, although I acknowledge avian flu is a threat to us.

Shark attacks, there's something else the media like to spin when it happens - "shark attacks on the rise!! they're moving into warmer waters!!! global warming !!! " etc, then you read that more people are killed each year by domestic dogs than are killed by sharks in the past 100 years (source: wikipedia).

 

[throdgrain]

Im not a young adult so fuck the lot of you

 

[old.user4556]

Just caught a bit of richard and judy over dinner (preachers of lies and shite) who said that as many as 750,000 people could die - if so, why not slaughter all the birds en masse?! What the fuck are we waiting for?!

I seem to remember foot'n'mouth led to incineration of cows, why not do the same with birds?

 

[Ch3tan]

Before they appear in this thread. Fuck off with the bird pictures already Dommers.

Look's like its SARS all over again. Face mask anyone?

 

[Tom]

I have a box of Tamiflu in my pantry. I thought it best to be on the safe side.

 

[old.user4556]

Before they appear in this thread. Fuck off with the bird pictures already Dommers.

Agreed.

 

[Tilda]

<guards keyworker dose>

Seriously, the lack of preparation is alarming.
From a semi-insider view, the government announced its plans for birdflu today(or is it tomorrow).
However, they haven't said a word to the GP's, who everybody will call out for home visits.
And if the GPs get called out and infected, ok, they can take their tamiflu, and carry on, however, how many people will they have infected before they realise they are a carrier? Simiarly, they have no biohazard suits, which seems to me like a sensible option.
Its quite worrying, that from my pov there seems to be almost no preparation. If you ask people, you get a vague "well, we just wont do visits if theres bird flu" but there seems no general plan of action.
I'm sure there should be guidelines on this sort of thing, however, I've seen nothing.

To ballance this view, it should be recognised, that although birdflu is spreading across europe (greece so far), it still has to infect a patient who has a normal flu virus, mutate, and then get transmitted to another host before it kills the original person. In the UK, i'd guess we'll have atleast a weeks warning.

 

[Trancor]

I'm trying not to get it too out of perspective; the media have a knack for over cooking every single story into hysteria, although I acknowledge avian flu is a threat to us.

Shark attacks, there's something else the media like to spin when it happens - "shark attacks on the rise!! they're moving into warmer waters!!! global warming !!! " etc, then you read that more people are killed each year by domestic dogs than are killed by sharks in the past 100 years (source: wikipedia).

I think that coconuts are more dangerous than sharks too. Heard that the 60 odd people who have caught bird flu all worked with chickens. So chicken farmers beware ! And everyone else watch the skies for coconuts!

 

[ECA]

I currently have a sore throat and a cold type infection, I believe it to be bird flu.
The end is nigh, farewell cruel world.
( Does having a terminal illness get me an assignment deadline extension? )
That or its just a sore throat and a cold, will let you know how it progresses.

 

[FuzzyLogic]

They don't call it a deadline for nothing ECA, work faster!

That said, woo, we're all gonna perish horribly \o/

...Well, those that ain't old buggers anyhow.

 

[Furr]

Just caught a bit of richard and judy over dinner (preachers of lies and shite) who said that as many as 750,000 people could die - if so, why not slaughter all the birds en masse?! What the fuck are we waiting for?!

I seem to remember foot'n'mouth led to incineration of cows, why not do the same with birds?

I don't know if that 750,000 is just for the UK, but they say that the potential dead could be anything from seven to 100 million people... reason that its scary is that the death rate is around 50% which is very high, and that if the virus mutates where it can then pass from person to person not just from bird to person then thats where the problem would be.

Now there's meant to be a case in Greece, but short of issuing everyone with a gun and telling them to get out and shoot every bird they see there's nothing we can do to stop birds flying from country to country...

Maybe just go and live in the antartic for a while and shoot any penguins that get too close...

 

[old.user4556]

I live in a sparsely populated area of Scotland, I think i'll be safe - we don't eat birds, only haggis and play bagpipes in our skirts.

 

[Turamber]

Have just come back from a week on the Aegean coast of Turkey, just a few miles from where the first recorded case was. The situation in 1918 was pretty unique so I am not too concerned about the chances of a global pandemic -- but if I start to feel ill I will be straight round to Tom's!

 

[Tilda]

The situation in 1918 was pretty unique so I am not too concerned about the chances of a global pandemic -- but if I start to feel ill I will be straight round to Tom's!

How was it unique? I'm not being arsey, just curious as I dont know!

 

[rynnor]

Done some more research - by the way there is guidance for GP's on a pandemic - http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/influenza/pdfs/HPAPandemicplan.pdf

On the 50,000 dead estimate here's the bad news - during a pandemic based on past pandemics you can expect 25% of the population to contract it.

Now if 25% of the UK population catch normal flu you get a figure of 48,400 dead. So this figure is just for a type of flu where immunity already exists to a certain extent in the population. In a future Bird flu pandemic there would be no innate resistance...

If the fatality rate was only 2.5% of infected patients you get a figure of 645,900 dead in the UK.

2.5% is the highest the governments figures go up to so that people dont get too scared - so if the fatality rate was 25% your talking 6 and a half million dead...

No-one knows how lethal it will be until it mutates - as a bird flu virus it has been extremely deadly but it could be a lot less nasty when it combines with a human strain - we'll have to wait n see...

 

[rynnor]

The situation in 1918 was pretty unique so I am not too concerned about the chances of a global pandemic -- but if I start to feel ill I will be straight round to Tom's!

There was a Bird flu - it mutated exchanging dna with a human flu - it caused a pandemic that killed 250,000 people in the UK? Now we have a Bird flu just waiting to mix it up with a human flu - the difference being?

Are you referring to its outbreak at the end of World War 1? The nature of these things is that unless everyone puts on a full bio suit before they meet anyone else it will spread around the globe? Theres a lot more world travel and international commerce now than there was then too - more people fly everyday than the number who came back after the war?

 

[Tom]

/doom mode on

If you're concerned about this, and IMO you wouldn't be panicking - this is the website I used to obtain the Tamiflu. Its quite fast delivery, and totally legit:

http://meds4yourhealth.com/?

I got a box of 10 tablets of Tamiflu IIRC, its not that expensive really. Remember, if (and its a small if) a pandemic does occur, its only key workers who will get the drugs. The average joe won't get a look in. Also remember that Tamiflu isn't a cure, just an aid to improve your chances.

/doom mode off


/edit: Just checked the site and they're low on supplies. I bought mine about 5 months ago.

 

[babs]

I'll worry when I grow feathers I think.

There's a lot of 'if the flu gets to the UK, and then if it mutates into a form humans can catch from one another, then it might be a dangerous mutation'. There were 30,000 deaths from normal flu in the UK in 1989 in a mini epidemic.

Anyone remember the Necrotosing Fasciitis outbreak what, 10 years ago now? Everyone was sure they were going to get the flesh eating disease and die. (bit of a tangent I know but that shit me up far worse than this has).

 

[Damini]

To ballance this view, it should be recognised, that although birdflu is spreading across europe (greece so far), it still has to infect a patient who has a normal flu virus, mutate, and then get transmitted to another host before it kills the original person. In the UK, i'd guess we'll have atleast a weeks warning.

It does not need to merge with a human virus - that's only one possibility for creating an epidemic. The other is that it will independently evolve to transmit from human to human, and there are several incidents already were the mode of transmission is suspected to be human to human, though these have all involved close nursing of a sick child by a parent. The 1918 epidemic has been shown to have independently mutated, rather than having bonded with a human virus.

You can't just wipe out all the birds that might potentially be carrying it. That's morally reprehensible. Besides, if it makes the birds that sick, then there's a chance that isn't the reservoir of the infection, and until that is found and eradicated its futile, it's just like King Canute ordering back the tide.

Am I panicking? Now, no. If it arrives, then I would panic, as I wouldn't trust this government to handle a crisis like that. Lets wait months after everyone else to order the drug that could save hundred of thousands of lives, and then be shocked when it will take a whole year to get the amount needed, and lets just cross our fingers and hope that a) it doesn't hit before then and b) it doesn't develop immunity to the antibiotics, because we certainly aren't going to order any alternatives, and we'll be reduced to throwing stones at the virus and hoping it goes away.

I'll be holing myself away with tins of food, and a sharp pointy stick for stabbing people that wander too close to my letter box.

 

[rynnor]

/doom mode on

If you're concerned about this, and IMO you wouldn't be panicking - this is the website I used to obtain the Tamiflu.

Got some ready for the kids if it strikes by 2008 - additional doom mode/ actually a number of reports have now said that the current strain of bird flu has developed a resistance to Tamiflu - might be worth getting some rilenza...

Oh and the Czech Government banned the retail sale of Tamiflu today...

 

[Turamber]

At the end of the first World War the majority of the worlds population was living below what we would consider to be the poverty line. The worlds economy was stretched to breaking point and there was little in the way of resources to prepare medicines to combat the outbreak. Crowded troop ships and hospitals plus huge numbers of combatants travelling through different nations on their return home served to exacerbate the situation.

Yes international commuting is more prevalent now than in 1918, but the sheer number of troops and support personnel being deployed would, I am sure, absolutely dwarf the number of international travellers today.

 

[Mr.Bee]

Heres an interesting article...

bird_flu_will_kill_50k_not_this_year.htm

 

[rynnor]

Heres an interesting article...

bird_flu_will_kill_50k_not_this_year.htm

The 50K estimate comes from the government plan I linked earlier and as I said is based on a pandemic of an existing flu not of a flu we have no resistance to - like a new bird flu...

The not this year bit is a guess - hes probably right but it depends whats really happening in China - thats why we are sending a team there to investigate because those in the know are getting worried - if the flu has already mutated in China then hes probably wrong.

I personally think that history will show the 50K deaths figure as laughably optimistic.

 

[Trem]

I would normally let this sort of thing wash over me and I would ignore it. But I am now a dad and the slightest thought of anything happening to my son is enough to kill me in itself.

I have ordered 20 Tamiflu, 10 for my son and 10 for Samm. I don't really care much about myself as long as they are ok.

Ho-hum, its the stuff of films.

 

[rynnor]

At the end of the first World War the majority of the worlds population was living below what we would consider to be the poverty line.

And this has changed when? Standards of living have gone up in the westernized world but the majority still live in poverty.

The worlds economy was stretched to breaking point and there was little in the way of resources to prepare medicines to combat the outbreak. Crowded troop ships and hospitals plus huge numbers of combatants travelling through different nations on their return home served to exacerbate the situation..

The lack of medicines is true although for the majority of the worlds population this hasnt changed plus we wont know how effective new medicines are until we get the mutant strain.

Edit-Actually the main effect of the War was to distort the fatalities in the initial outbreak so that 98% were from the sub 65 age range - later waves of re-infection followed a more classic pattern of most fatalities in the under 5's and over 65's.

Yes international commuting is more prevalent now than in 1918, but the sheer number of troops and support personnel being deployed would, I am sure, absolutely dwarf the number of international travellers today.

Ok I found some figures - Approx 23 million troops mobilised if you discount the french/Germans who were fighting in their own back yard (and also excluding the Russians who pulled out long before the pandemic) they would have gone back in dribs n drabs over a number of months (plus a lot of them never went home as they died during the conflict).

World Tourism in 2003 = 694 Million arrivals.

UK Tourism months of April - June 2005 - Total 16.58 million

 

[Ormorof]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4350638.stm

 

[rynnor]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4350638.stm

Propaganda to prevent panic in the general populace.

A little odd they arent reporting the Czech ban on sale of Tamiflu dont you think?

 

[Trem]

Why would the Czechs ban the sale of it though?