Politics POLL: Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

[caLLous]

Brexit threatens pound’s status as global currency, surveys says

Central bank reserve managers signal reluctance to hold sterling after UK leaves EU

Brexit is likely to threaten the pound’s status as a global reserve currency according to a survey of central bank money managers who say Britain’s departure from the EU will alter their views on sterling.

The pound’s history as one of the most important global currencies has meant central banks have long held assets denominated in pounds that can be sold quickly to help curb swings in their own currency’s exchange rates.

But a poll by Central Banking Publications, a trade journal, suggests its status will be endangered by Brexit, with three-quarters of reserve managers predicting that central banks will collectively alter — and in all likelihood cut — their sterling holdings.

More than one-third of 80 people surveyed — managers working at central banks that hold €7tn in assets — indicated that they would reduce the sterling holdings they personally control.

A central bank exodus from sterling would weaken the currency and raise borrowing costs for the UK government, which has long benefited from the pound’s popularity as a reserve currency.

“It’s clear that reserve managers think global holdings of sterling will be impacted by Brexit,” said Nick Carver, publisher of Central Banking Publications.

“Quitting the EU is identified with uncertainty and volatility, which reserve managers tend not to like. They find Brexit disruptive, whether in terms of market movements, or changes to back-office and counterparty arrangements.”

The pound was the global reserve currency of choice until around the middle of the 20th century, when it was superseded by the dollar. Central banks choose reserve currencies from sovereign issuers that boast economic clout, stability and open financial markets.

Sterling is the fourth most popular reserve currency after the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Since the UK voted to leave the EU in June 2016, the pound has fallen from above $1.45 to below $1.30.

Assets denominated in the pound still make up about 4.5 per cent of official reserves, according to International Monetary Fund data. The data show the dollar value of reserves held in sterling assets has remained around the same level since the vote, suggesting reserve managers are waiting to know the terms of any deal before making a final decision.

The UK was granted an extension by the rest of the EU earlier this month that enables Brexit to be delayed until October 31.

A reserve manager from one eurozone member state played down the likelihood of a big drop in sterling holdings, but said Brexit was already creating other complications.

“We are affected by many of our counterparties moving at least some parts of their business out of London or preparing for this, so this has generated a lot of legal work for our risk management.”

Assets denominated in renminbi and emerging market bonds are becoming more popular, according to the poll, compiled by Central Banking Publications in February and March,

The survey also suggested that central banks were increasingly making decisions on asset allocation based on environmental factors.

Thirty five of the respondents said they were either considering changing, or had already changed, what they were investing in to avoid companies that cause severe environmental damage or violate human rights.

 

[DaGaffer]

Or they do the sensible thing and keep the current system/practice in place until agreements are ready. I know, far too sensible and will never happen. Instead it will be the end of the world as we know it!

That would be "a deal" and not "no deal".

 

[dysfunction]

Don't confuse things with logic @DaGaffer

 

[Job]

Temporary blip followed by a stronger pound as Europes debt, fucked up parties and mis management starts to show itself.
In 5 years time the pound will be above the Euro.

 

[Gwadien]

Temporary blip followed by a stronger pound as Europes debt, fucked up parties and mis management starts to show itself.
In 5 years time the pound will be above the Euro.

OK mr Plumber man, I'll take your word above the experts.

Why is it with Brexit everything is going to be dandy, like every area of concern you're like 'It'll be fine!'

Why can't you accept there's going to be negatives?

 

[Job]

Because everyone who says its going to be fine gets ignored or ridiculed, while the doom merchants and every possible downside is peddled every day at every opportunity by every single media outlet.
You are being mentally conditioned by the establishment.
They started with leavers are fruitloops, then a total propoganda vote leaflet with absolutely no positives, in fact 100% against it.
I mean, regardless of how you feel about brexit..you must be able to see that, I know you might be happy with it...but you could at least acknowledge the fact that the media and the establishment are destroying brexit at every turn.
Because one day they will do it to something you care for.

Everything has negatives..I believe selling ourselves to a PC driven liberal federal superpower that wants to desyroy our heritage and nationalism and use our troops for an EU army just to get cheap bananas, is fucking madness.

 

[Gwadien]

Because everyone who says its going to be fine gets ignored or ridiculed, while the doom merchants and every possible downside is peddled every day at every opportunity by every single media outlet.
You are being mentally conditioned by the establishment.
They started with leavers are fruitloops, then a total propoganda vote leaflet with absolutely no positives, in fact 100% against it.
I mean, regardless of how you feel about brexit..you must be able to see that, I know you might be happy with it...but you could at least acknowledge the fact that the media and the establishment are destroying brexit at every turn.
Because one day they will do it to something you care for.

Everything has negatives..I believe selling ourselves to a PC driven liberal federal superpower that wants to desyroy our heritage and nationalism and use our troops for an EU army just to get cheap bananas, is fucking madness.

I like to listen to people that will say, this is going to be shit, but this'll be alright.

You think you're in the middle; in reality you're SO far up Brexit, you'll never ever accept that there could be a negative effect.

Why do you pretend to be impartial, it's weird as fuck.

 

[Wij]

Because everyone who says its going to be fine gets ignored or ridiculed, while the doom merchants and every possible downside is peddled every day at every opportunity by every single media outlet.
You are being mentally conditioned by the establishment.
They started with leavers are fruitloops, then a total propoganda vote leaflet with absolutely no positives, in fact 100% against it.
I mean, regardless of how you feel about brexit..you must be able to see that, I know you might be happy with it...but you could at least acknowledge the fact that the media and the establishment are destroying brexit at every turn.
Because one day they will do it to something you care for.

Everything has negatives..I believe selling ourselves to a PC driven liberal federal superpower that wants to desyroy our heritage and nationalism and use our troops for an EU army just to get cheap bananas, is fucking madness.

Your argument is basically this:

Britain demands obesity study that says it’s fine

 

[Yoni]

Because everyone who says its going to be fine gets ignored or ridiculed, while the doom merchants and every possible downside is peddled every day at every opportunity by every single media outlet.
You are being mentally conditioned by the establishment.
They started with leavers are fruitloops, then a total propoganda vote leaflet with absolutely no positives, in fact 100% against it.
I mean, regardless of how you feel about brexit..you must be able to see that, I know you might be happy with it...but you could at least acknowledge the fact that the media and the establishment are destroying brexit at every turn.
Because one day they will do it to something you care for.

Everything has negatives..I believe selling ourselves to a PC driven liberal federal superpower that wants to desyroy our heritage and nationalism and use our troops for an EU army just to get cheap bananas, is fucking madness.

Sorry but you go on and on about liberalism, but I am not sure you understand what it means? When you talk of liberalism are you coming from an economic or political standpoint? Why when someone’s point of view differs from yours do you try to quieten them with terms like; liberalism and conformist.... a lot of the people using the forums do not live in the UK they belong to societies with economic policies both right and left of the UK. For some their political view has evolved since living outside of the UK and they can really see benefits of being a part of Europe and yet you dismiss them with no basis or facts? For others they have studied and work with economics in the UK, they also have very valuable insight into the pros and cons of Brexit and you dismiss them too? Why do you think that these experts should be dismissed as conformist liberalists who do not have the intelligence to come to their own “informed” conclusion? What qualifications do you have to reject any of the substantiated information you have been presented with on many occasions? Or is it just about people with funny accents or people who are not white enough taking your jobs?

 

[Job]

As I said.
Its a completely biased public discourse.
Brexiteers are thick racists.
Remainers are intelligent and progressive.

Thats all we have..thats the entire narrative, we are literally sitting in our homes with one half of the country being spoon fed proof of their prejudice while the other half seethes and is completely losing faith in democracy and the independence of the press.
Its like the blue and the red pill from the Matrix.
Everyone speaking out against it is being deplatformed, completely false and twisted accusations piled upon them.
We have reached the point where all thats left is disruption, there is no avenue whatsoever left for conservative views unless you are a minority.
You come on here and treat me like I'm deranged quite often for the simple fact that you can use it as a prop for your own progressive smugness..its a fuckin religion, a disease of polite society, entrenched social pandering, a universal script for acceptance.

Well things are changing very fast indeed.
The most glorious bomb has gone of in british politics and I hope it spreads across the western world.

 

[Job]

Your argument is basically this:

Britain demands obesity study that says it’s fine

Well no it isnt is it.

 

[Job]

Austrian deputy leader endorses far-right term 'population replacement'

Latest development under EUs ongoing saving us from conflict in Europe

 

[Yoni]

As I said.
Its a completely biased public discourse.
Brexiteers are thick racists.
Remainers are intelligent and progressive.

No this is your view! Please address my questions to you in the post above. What experience or qualifications do you have to tell others on the forums that their reasoned and substantiated point of view is not correct... Other than I don’t like them because they are different...

 

[Job]

I didnt say it wasnt correct.
Its just an opinion..your point of view.
But when only one is allowed..it gets a bit.
Here we go ..its the official line again.

 

[Scouse]

Its just an opinion..your point of view.

Difference being, one side of the argument tries to bring evidence, the other side of the argument doesn't like it, ignores it and then continues to push their opinion as if it still holds the same weight.

Like climate deniers. There's fuckloads of science, but they'll never admit they're wrong.

 

[Job]

Well the advantages and disadvantages of Brexit are a mixture of guessing and opinion.

But feel free to believe only your view is correct.

 

[Scouse]

But feel free to believe only your view is correct.

No. That's you you're describing.

My view can change, based on information. That's the difference.

 

[Job]

And there lies the problem..the public us only ever given one side of the debate and one side of the facts.

 

[Scouse]

And there lies the problem..the public us only ever given one side of the debate and one side of the facts.

Disagree. It's just that you don't like the facts that are being presented and believe in the existence of some other magic facts that support you. But they don't exist.

So you say "mwahhhh, I'm only being given one side!!".

Nope. You just don't like reality.

 

[Wij]

Former head of WTO:


View: https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1122835148721070080

 

[Job]

Disagree. It's just that you don't like the facts that are being presented and believe in the existence of some other magic facts that support you. But they don't exist.

So you say "mwahhhh, I'm only being given one side!!".

Nope. You just don't like reality.

There are scant facts in the brexit journey.
Just a lot of maybes, opinions and predictions.
The only facts are..we would leave and the present treaties and laws at some point would have to change.

Because thats all the EU is...a fuck load of treaties and laws.

My point...yet again..is that the public only hear the remain ones as sensible and brexit support as racist lunacy.

 

[caLLous]

Explain what isn't sensible about maintaining the status quo. If you had to pick between doing that and jumping off a cliff into the unknown, which would you say is more sensible?

 

[Job]

Lets see who runs with this story.

Only the Express so far.

UK outstrips other EU nations as top investment destination in Europe

 

[DaGaffer]

And there lies the problem..the public us only ever given one side of the debate and one side of the facts.

No-one, even the most ardent Brexiteer, has made a coherent economic case for Brexit. Rees-Mogg basically spoke in terms of half a century before things are better. The reason why you're not seeing an alternative narrative to doom and gloom is because there isn't one; not from anyone who's ever opened an economics textbook anyway.

 

[Gwadien]

Well the advantages and disadvantages of Brexit are a mixture of guessing and opinion.

But feel free to believe only your view is correct.

So stuff like in the event of a no deal Brexit, freedom of movement will stop?

But then you'll say No that's complete bollocks because they'll definitely immediately agree on a freedom of movement deal.

I mean that's dod

Lets see who runs with this story.

Only the Express so far.

UK outstrips other EU nations as top investment destination in Europe

Wait what.

So Brexit has caused companies to leave the UK.

How you're saying you're happy that foreign companies are investing in the UK and taking up those opportunities?

 

[Job]

Ha.
I knew you'd try to spin it.
Right bang in the middle of the biggest political upheaval in decades on top of serious uncertainty and the endless message of doom.
We are still pulling in record investment levels .
But no you have to find an excuse..anything to belittle it, you have all become doom drones.
Just imagine how well the UK could di free of the EU and in more stable times.

You actually dont even like good news anymore.

 

[caLLous]

Just imagine how well the UK could di free of the EU and in more stable times.

That's funny because several economists (who are no doubt part of the establishment that you're so scared of and desperate to ignore) have said that the UK would actually be doing much better *right now* if the referendum had never happened.

What's wrong with good news? Good news is good news, you don't like news that doesn't fit your agenda and as has been said, the fact that there's more "bad" news than "good" news might have something to do with the fact that people generally aren't optimistic. Just because you desperately want that to not be the case, doesn't stop it from being the case.

 

[DaGaffer]

Ha.
I knew you'd try to spin it.
Right bang in the middle of the biggest political upheaval in decades on top of serious uncertainty and the endless message of doom.
We are still pulling in record investment levels .
But no you have to find an excuse..anything to belittle it, you have all become doom drones.
Just imagine how well the UK could di free of the EU and in more stable times.

You actually dont even like good news anymore.

Its spin. Go and look at the OECD source data, looks great until you see the outflows are nearly as large. Then go and look at the UK category data and compare it to...well, anywhere else. The UK FDI is all share trades or banking deposits, and then go and look at the historic data and you realise this is just the stock market being the stock market; the UK's FDI shape is pretty much always like this. When you look at other countries' FDI it's in things and buildings and manufacturing, in the UK it's just volume of trades driven by volatility. So you can certainly take comfort that the stock market still works, but fuck all else.

 

[Job]

Doomsters form a circle of despair.

 

[DaGaffer]

Doomsters form a circle of despair.

No, doomsters who bother to look at the data not just the press release.