News Oil prices soar again

[Bugz]

Compared to the boom of 1950 to 2000, you can't expect the same exponential growth in cars, people, consuming etc in the 2000-2050 sector.

Not entirely true in my opinion.

The 1950-2000 brought about a lot of fluctuations in consumption and so on. Many economies were beginning to diverse and revolutions brought about issues for a lot of the world. Now however, certain countries are massively growing in population size and the economy is a lot more settled than it was then - oil production and consumption will only keep rising unless govt. initiatives are started.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Compared to the boom of 1950 to 2000, you can't expect the same exponential growth in cars, people, consuming etc in the 2000-2050 sector.

Not true. China and India have like 3 times the population of the western world. They are growing as fast as we did after ww2. So what reason do we have to assume that growth is slowing down?

I mean, unless nature stops it. (And thats exactly whats happening)

 

[old.Tohtori]

Not entirely true in my opinion.

The 1950-2000 brought about a lot of fluctuations in consumption and so on. Many economies were beginning to diverse and revolutions brought about issues for a lot of the world. Now however, certain countries are massively growing in population size and the economy is a lot more settled than it was then - oil production and consumption will only keep rising unless govt. initiatives are started.

But not as fast. So if we doubled from 1970, we can't expect to DOUBLE in the next 30. You know?

Sure it will rise as demand increases and peoples lives last longer, etc medicine and all that, but it's not gonna grow in such huge leaps.

Not true. China and India have like 3 times the population of the western world. They are growing as fast as we did after ww2. So what reason do we have to assume that growth is slowing down?

I mean, unless nature stops it. (And thats exactly whats happening)

Well it all depends if we take oil to them ofcourse.

Well, have to say that nature is TRYING to rid some of the overpopulation, but...this might come as a shock...some people try to help all those f*ckers out

 

[Bugz]

Why can't we expect the output to double in the next thirty years assuming oil does not run out?

Less throwing around unjustified comments, without explaining them.

China and India are securing places on the worlds' prosperous economies. They account for about 35% of the world's population. Both are expected to grow in the next ~30 years.

Technological advances are likely to lead to more demands and needs for oil. With more MEDC's than before trying to help the LEDC's out of the poverty line, what will this lead to? More oil consumption.

Lastly, it is not a case of 'refusing to take oil from people.' The resource allocation debate MAY lead to conflict. Sauda Arabia are being refused arms deals by the Americans. The condition it will go through? If they produce more oil for the Americans. Someone is going to get mighty pissed off with all this soon, and it won't be pretty.

 

[Gorbachioo]

MSNBC - Video Front Page

Another video from a trustworthy source.


edit: Im sure someones going to call me a conspiracy theorist for this but i strongly believe that the US will be in Iran before Bush's term is over.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Why can't we expect the output to double in the next thirty years assuming oil does not run out?

Less throwing around unjustified comments, without explaining them.

Lastly, it is not a case of 'refusing to take oil from people.' The resource allocation debate MAY lead to conflict. Sauda Arabia are being refused arms deals by the Americans. The condition it will go through? If they produce more oil for the Americans. Someone is going to get mighty pissed off with all this soon, and it won't be pretty.

I said "Not taking oil to people" though

About why not, well, i think that oil was needed in the 1950-2000 more then it will be in the 2000-2050.

Nuclear, hybrids, etc. Slowly taking over. Oil heating is a thing of the past really, for example.

That's an opinion by the way.

So, i think it's gonna rise, consumption that is, but no "panic" thing needed. It's not gonna rise as much.

 

[Golena]

I really think people are right when they say it's not going to double.
It's how technology cycles work.

You find a large source of raw materials so you simply find ways of using it the easiest ways you can without worrying too much about how much your using.
When the raw materials start to dwindle you find more economical ways of exploiting them.

When petrol is 10p a gallon you don't care how much you need to use to power your car so it's not a design consideration. When it's £100 a gallon you care much more so you design them to be more economical. The drive for economical cars will come from silly petrol prices, not from people saying 4x4's will kill the planet.

Also unless you find some new roads from somewhere the cars simply can't double. People will start taking public transport because traffic jams will become completely out of control. Doubling the number of cars doesn't just double the amount of time it takes to get from A to B, it makes it MUCH worse than that..

 

[Gorbachioo]

I said "Not taking oil to people" though

About why not, well, i think that oil was needed in the 1950-2000 more then it will be in the 2000-2050.

Nuclear, hybrids, etc. Slowly taking over. Oil heating is a thing of the past really, for example.

That's an opinion by the way.

So, i think it's gonna rise, consumption that is, but no "panic" thing needed. It's not gonna rise as much.

If all of our energy came from nuclear energy uranium would last for about 7 years. Hybrids need energy too and right now the only realistic option we have for that is coal. (which according to many sources would then peak within a couple of decades, not to mention the damage to the environment).

If we want to keep going as we have before then renewables are the answer, however, it doesnt look very good atm.

This problem can be solved in theory but if we look in to the past then i for one am very skeptic about the idea that we would all come together and solve this instead of using the "every man for himself" method. The fact that the USA is in Iraq right now is a hint.

 

[tierk]

Firstly understand that the rate of increase in consumption of oil will not continue to grow at the same rate as it has done over the last forty years.

The reasons behind this are that the current major users of oil are steadly diversifying there current sources of energy and also diversfying the types of fuel that they are using.

In addition to this we have to factor in that at some point in the nearish future a alternative to oil will become commercially available to the wider world. Just as in the seventies everyone started to build nuclear power stations as a direct result of the energy crisis created by the oil embargo of the early seventies.

For this to happen though, oil has to be priced at a ridiculously high price so as to justify the intial high levels investment needed for this. Once the intial investment can be justified by the big corporations it is just a question of time before alternate fuels become commercially available.

I dont see demand for oil reaching levels in the region of 170million barrels a day as oil is not a energy source of the future, it is very low tech and quite frankly a very inefficient source of energy as well as causing high levels of pollution. The biggest factor against it being a fuel of the future is the fact that it will run out at some point in the not too distant future.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Firstly understand that the rate of increase in consumption of oil will not continue to grow at the same rate as it has done over the last forty years.

The reasons behind this are that the current major users of oil are steadly diversifying there current sources of energy and also diversfying the types of fuel that they are using.

In addition to this we have to factor in that at some point in the nearish future a alternative to oil will become commercially available to the wider world. Just as in the seventies everyone started to build nuclear power stations as a direct result of the energy crisis created by the oil embargo of the early seventies.

For this to happen though, oil has to be priced at a ridiculously high price so as to justify the intial high levels investment needed for this. Once the intial investment can be justified by the big corporations it is just a question of time before alternate fuels become commercially available.

I dont see demand for oil reaching levels in the region of 170million barrels a day as oil is not a energy source of the future, it is very low tech and quite frankly a very inefficient source of energy as well as causing high levels of pollution. The biggest factor against it being a fuel of the future is the fact that it will run out at some point in the not too distant future.

So is it happening or not? :O


Oil still accounts for 98% of transportation energy.

And what is this alternative source of energy?

Oil an inefficient source of energy? Euh. no. Quite the opposite. Polluting? Yes, but since when have people cared about that? ;O

Demand will never rise that high as production will never reach a 100 million barrels a day.

 

[tierk]

So is it happening or not?......

Please be a little more clear, is what happening?

......Oil still accounts for 98% of transportation energy......

Not sure where you get that figure from but i would imagine that the figure is pretty high still regardless of the accuracy of your 98%. However, as the cost of oil increases so the alternatives to cars trucks and planes will start to look more and more economical and hence we are more likely to see changes in the fuel for transportation.

And what is this alternative source of energy?....

I think that that is a question that i am not able to answer with any degree of accuracy. The list is very long though as far as alternatives go: Wind, solar, hydro, thermal, hydrogen, Fusion, hell it could be something like red mercury for all i know.

Most likely though it will be a complete rethink on the way that we will do things on a daily basis from transport, to heating homes, to the way we light our homes.

.....Oil an inefficient source of energy? Euh. no. Quite the opposite....

Wrong again, oil is actually a very inefficient source of energy, the reason it is so prevalent is nothing to do with how efficient it is and everything to do with how cheap it is /was to get in large quantities.

Petroleum-powered vehicles are very inefficient. Only about 15% of the energy from the fuel they consume is converted into useful motion. The rest of the fuel-source energy is inefficiently expended as waste heat...........taken from some random site.

Need i say more?

Demand will never rise that high as production will never reach a 100 million barrels a day.

Again you are talking like as if you know something that noone else does. It is easy to just make random statements on a subject, as you have a tendency to do, and a lot more difficult to make statements based in fact.

Read.

Loading...

This article talks about increases in Saudi oil production to 12.5million per day just in 2009.

Bloomberg.com: News

Anyway its 1.20am here almost and time for bed, long fookin day ahead of me.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Well you moved from saying that "its not going to happen" to "It wont be a problem when it happens" So is it happening? Peak oil that is if i must specify.


Electric cars are making a comeback right i know. But it is SLOW, Nissan and GM are releasing their first electric cars in around 2010. It will take a long while before they account for any significant percentage of transportation and my fear is that that will be too late for many countries.

Second problem with them is that we dont have the capacity to power those things right now. So not only do we have to build new cars we also have to build new power plants which cannot all be coal ones for several reasons.

"Petroleum-powered vehicles are very inefficient." I never said anything about petroleum-powered vehicles. I talked about oil itself and right now we dont have anything with the same energy density. (except for maybe other carbon fuels but dunno about that)


Saudi Arabia? According to many sources they are about to peak. But noone knows for sure. The fact that the king of Saudi Arabia only agreed to a very small increase when Bush himself went to meet him is a strong sign if you ask me.

When it comes to the oil industry one shouldnt trust the official sources. The Saudis have said many times that they can produce over 15million barrels a day for the next hundred years. They need to lie if they want US protection. Other countries have similar reasons too.

 

[Mey]

I can still do a weekly shop on approx. a tenner. So no worries for me

 

[tierk]

Well you moved from saying that "its not going to happen" to "It wont be a problem when it happens" So is it happening? Peak oil that is if i must specify......

I never said that the oil will never run out or that we will eventually see a reduction in the amount of oil. What i did say was that current high prices have nothing to do with a problem with supply in the market and everything to do with speculators playing around with the prices.

So yes it will happen - peak oil - just that this isnt it yet.

......Electric cars are making a comeback right i know. But it is SLOW.....

This was what i meant by the comment that we will have to change the way we as a society - globally - use our energy. Is it absolutely essential that my car goes at 200 mph and does 0-60 in 3 secs? These are life style changes that we will all have to go through at some point.

......Nissan and GM are releasing their first electric cars in around 2010. It will take a long while before they account for any significant percentage of transportation and my fear is that that will be too late for many countries......

Tbh the car is a outdated, inefficient mode of transport and i dont see any place for it in the future. The sooner they get rid of them the better, in terms of conservation as well as pollution.

......Second problem with them is that we dont have the capacity to power those things right now. So not only do we have to build new cars we also have to build new power plants which cannot all be coal ones for several reasons.......

Agreed.

......Petroleum-powered vehicles are very inefficient." I never said anything about petroleum-powered vehicles. I talked about oil itself and right now we dont have anything with the same energy density. (except for maybe other carbon fuels but dunno about that).......

I used the car as a csimple example but i guess you could apply oil overall as a poor source of energy. Just look at the amounts needed to power an oil powered station for example as compred say to nuclear power stations consumption of Uranuim or Plutonuim.

......Saudi Arabia? According to many sources they are about to peak. But noone knows for sure. The fact that the king of Saudi Arabia only agreed to a very small increase when Bush himself went to meet him is a strong sign if you ask me......

Again i ask you why on earth should they incraese there production levels to much higher levels when the amount that is being produced daily is enough to meet current demands?

This will cause a major crash in oil prices again like in the mid 80's and a dirty big hole in all the development plans that the middle east countries are all in the middle of.

Just because Bush asks doesnt mean that Bush gets.

......They need to lie if they want US protection. Other countries have similar reasons too.

Yet again showing your great love of making statements with no basis in fact. Saudi is the single largest producer of oil and would get protection from the USA regardless of the levels of output in 100 years. The reason? Because they have the largest reserves of oil in the world and by far the largest single producer of oil on a daily basis.

 

[Ingafgrinn Macabre]

I won't go into the "amagad the oil is running out" scaremongering, becaus eI just don't believe that the shit'll hit the fan in the next 5~10 years, like some articles like to depict.

What bothers me though, is that, although a 1km stretch of highway will cost a quarter million euro's to maintain, anually, the entire world only was able to fund 11 billion to the ITER nuclear fusion program... The US even stopped its funding for the fiscal year 2008. :/

IMO, Nuclear fusion is the most promising source of energy for the future. You put heavy water in, and extract a damn lot of energy. There's minimal nuclear residue, despite what Greenpeace says.

Don't get me started about greenpeace though. Bunch of Know-naught fucktards...

 

[Msdfuioasgaoiurdxzku]

IMO, Nuclear fusion is the most promising source of energy for the future.

Haha, good luck with that. The only time we've ever produced fusion is with the Tsar Bomba (and maybe Castle Bravo + other major nucleur bombs) and I don't see us finding another way for a very long time.

 

[Himse]

I didn't know Labour was the worlds goverment, thanks for the heads up I'll be sure to vote for this Tory guy next time.

Actually to Dark-Orb, Bugz and yourself.

I was talking about Raven's point, maybe i should quote more.

 

[Raven]

Haha, good luck with that. The only time we've ever produced fusion is with the Tsar Bomba (and maybe Castle Bravo + other major nucleur bombs) and I don't see us finding another way for a very long time.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Laser heats up the fusion future

 

[Ovron]

I don't see us finding another way for a very long time.

"I can do science, me" - Brainiac. Well You hardly are one of the scientists in lead of the research regarding this, so mind sparing us your layman conclusions?

/Ovron

 

[Msdfuioasgaoiurdxzku]

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Laser heats up the fusion future

The energy to power the lazer far surpasses the enery built. To do this on a large scale would be ridiculous and unsustainable. I have seen this article before.

 

[Himse]

Himse, how old are you, do you really know anything about this at all, fuel prices all over the world are going up, thats not the british governments fault is it.

and the person in texas most likely didn't say that his gas price has gone up as well, it was just lower than the price we pay before, by a third.

wow, just wow.

I know fuel prices are going up over the world.

But we are still paying twice as much as everyone else in the UK.

 

[Gorbachioo]

.

When i said "SLOW" i didnt mean that the cars are slow. ;p I meant that the speed they are coming to the markets is slow.


As far as i know the electric car is quite viable but i dont know for sure so i'll leave this. If its not then we have a big problem though.


Comparing a nuclear reactor with a petroleum engine might not be such a good idea. ;>

Maybe the example about Saudi Arabia wasnt the greatest but surely you agree that oil producing countries exaggerate the size of their oil reserves?

 

[Lamp]

If oil prices keep rising, and hence the cost of petrol, is there a price limit where you say to yourself "OK, enough's enough, I simply cannot afford to fill up my car anymore" or could you ever envisage yourself refusing to put petrol in your car in protest at the rising costs ?

Or will you pay whatever the price is ?

 

[Golena]

If oil prices keep rising, and hence the cost of petrol, is there a price limit where you say to yourself "OK, enough's enough, I simply cannot afford to fill up my car anymore" or could you ever envisage yourself refusing to put petrol in your car in protest at the rising costs ?

Or will you pay whatever the price is ?

I'm not sure it's going to be quite as clear cut as this.

What's going to happen is your going to say.. Ok enough's enough, i'll use my car to go to the supermarket and buy my weekly shopping, but i'm not going to use it to drive 5 minutes to take the kids to school every morning, instead they can walk.
I'm fairly sure that 99% of people with a car use it much more than they actually really need to. Getting a weekly shop home without a car is tricky. Going to the shop at the end of the road for a pint of milk, well it's more of a convenience.

The conveniences journeys will die long before the needed journeys so it's not going to be a sudden park up.

 

[Golena]

Maybe the example about Saudi Arabia wasnt the greatest but surely you agree that oil producing countries exaggerate the size of their oil reserves?

Why would I surely agree.
It might make sense that some of them would be but unless you actually have some factual information it's a guess, and i'm not going to obviously agree that a guess is 100% right now am I!

 

[Gorbachioo]

Why would I surely agree.
It might make sense that some of them would be but unless you actually have some factual information it's a guess, and i'm not going to obviously agree that a guess is 100% right now am I!

Its a commonly accepted fact that oil producers do just that. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said it will be able to produce ridiculous amounts of oil for a hundred years and other countries have made similar claims too. There was some case where an oil producer doubled its known oil reserves over night.

If you insist i'll try to find an example.

 

[crispy]

Only thing that scares me in this i that how are they gonna mimic the sound and smell of american muscle cars when we run out of oil

Other then that; we had women and scotch before oil, we'll have it after

Spread rep

 

[tierk]

.....Comparing a nuclear reactor with a petroleum engine might not be such a good idea......

I made the comparsin of a nuclear power station with a oil fired power station.

.....Maybe the example about Saudi Arabia wasnt the greatest but surely you agree that oil producing countries exaggerate the size of their oil reserves?

That my be true - well actually i know it is - but it is still not quite the doomesday scenario that some people would like to make out it is.

......But we are still paying twice as much as everyone else in the UK.

Yes compliments of the taxes slapped on it year in year out. However, i would not blame the Labour Party for this as it was iiirc the Tories that introduced the escalator tax on fuel.

Also i doubt very much that should the Conservatives win the next election they would cancel it or even reduce it.

All governments have learnt the best way to wean people of something is by taxing the shit out of them. Ciggies a good example of this.

.....could you ever envisage yourself refusing to put petrol in your car in protest at the rising costs?

Nope but i could see me buying myself a nice little horseeeee to pop to the shop to go buy some milk though

 

[Mey]

Nuclear energy is the only viable sustanble/renewable energy source that we have, the some we start focusing attention on it more vigourously the sooner we will start to see results that blitz current energy output.

 

[tierk]

Nuclear energy is the only viable sustanble/renewable energy source that we have, the some we start focusing attention on it more vigourously the sooner we will start to see results that blitz current energy output.

As someone else in the thread stated earlier if they were to try and replace oil with nuclear energy the Uranuim we have would run out in a even shorter time then the oil as it is in even shorter supply then oil is.