News Oil prices soar again

[Raven]

They price of fuel in the UK is mostly tax. If everything wasn't taxed to the hilt to cover up an inept governments spending, then a rise in the cost of crude oil wouldn't be so bad.

 

[Bugz]

For those who haven't learn to drive yet - fuckin do so!

They are considering putting up driving lessons in my area to £25 a pop, down from £15-18 because of constantly rising petrol prices.

 

[Jeremiah]

TBH, I think the Oil thing is just a bubble. It will eventually reach a point where the normal citizen can't afford to pay the inflated price and so the demand from us regular joes will fall and hopefully this will bring the price down. The reason I think this is because the whole cost of living is now rising at an accelerated pace, above pay increases, so surely its bound to peak soon?

 

[Gorbachioo]

Can still fill up me car for just under 20 quid and its got a double tank = +150 ltrs.

For those that think it is because oil is running out, it isnt, its just speculators playing with the market.

No one is saying that oil is running out. They are saying that the production of oil has reached its peak. That combined with the fact that chindia is just getting started with their oil use is the reason why we're here.

A part of the rise in price is because of speculators but certainly not all of it.

 

[Case]

have to admit i havent noticed any higher price on liveing for the last 12 month.

eh? where do you live, the moon? diesel is up fro 90p a litre to £1.23, milk is up from £1.10 to £1.50, bread is up from about £1 to £1.30 and so on.... not to mention gas and electric up by about 16%, council tax by 6%

incidently spoke to my mate in Texas last night and he's currently paying about $3.60 for a gallon of gas which is 3.8 litres so about a third what we pay in the UK. As usual we are getting shafted.

 

[Himse]

Once again, Labour running the country = it going to pot.

Bring on the tory

 

[Dark Orb Choir]

Himse, how old are you, do you really know anything about this at all, fuel prices all over the world are going up, thats not the british governments fault is it.

and the person in texas most likely didn't say that his gas price has gone up as well, it was just lower than the price we pay before, by a third.

 

[cHodAX]

Dunno about wages. They don't go up with the prices though, any more then in the UK. Should be able to pull out some average pay numbers etc if need be.

Most of it is tax, well, 22% i think But it's also a good thing, taxing keeps the 'land as a "good place". As in, roads, healthcare etc get cash.

Not complaining about the prices, just wondering how much things cost around.

A Fin yes.

Yeah most in the UK pay 29% tax when you include the national insurance premium, our average wage outside of the greater London area is about £17000 so about 23000 euros. So most people take home around £232 a week after all deductions which is just over 300 euros.

We have alot of hidden taxes to pay after that though, we have the 'community' charge which is another £1000 a year or more. VAT on goods at 17.5%, TV licence at £150 a year plus extremely high fuel/electricty/water bills. Now add on top of that 20% rises in the cost of many foods and a 20% rise in petrol/diesel in the last year, yet pay rises are only 2%. You can see things are getting very tight for families with kids and a mortgage.

 

[tierk]

No one is saying that oil is running out. They are saying that the production of oil has reached its peak......

No its nothing to do with peak production being reached. There is plenty of spare capacity in OPEC just a refusal to increase current capacity. Why would they raise production levels if?

Today's high oil prices have been caused by a decline in the dollar. First, oil is priced in dollars, so OPEC needs to raise the price of oil to maintain its profit margins

This is not the only factor mind you, there are several factors causing this increase in prices.

What affects Oil Price Futures?

Oil futures, or futures contracts, are an agreement to buy or sell oil at a specific date in the future at a specific price. Traders in oil futures bid on the price of oil based on what they think oil will trade at. They look at projected supply and demand to determine the price. However, if traders think the price of oil will be high, they will actually create a self-fulfilling prophecy by bidding up oil prices. This can create high oil prices even when there is plenty of supply on hand. Once this starts, then other investors will bid on oil prices just like any other commodity, such as gold, and create a bubble.

Another major factor that has to be taken into account is that with a high price of oil alternative sources of energy become viable. For example you will note that the price increases in oil from 1973 onwards was also followed by a massive increase i the use of nuclear energy.

Another side effect of high prices is.......

OPEC's goal is to keep the price of oil at around $70 per barrel. If it is much higher, than other countries would have the incentive to drill new fields which are too expensive to open when prices are low..

Anyone remeber when they started to drill North Sea oil??


Anyway i could go and and give you a very long history of the price of oil and the effects it has had on the OPEC countries economies but i wont.

A part of the rise in price is because of speculators but certainly not all of it.

Yes it is not just speculators but you are wrong with this peak oil production theory. Countries like Iran are closing off oil fields and stopping production in some fields so as to preserve them for future generations.

Huge new oil fields are being discoevered all the time

BBC NEWS | Business | Huge new oil discovery in Brazil

a good example.

 

[Bugz]

Himse, how old are you, do you really know anything about this at all, fuel prices all over the world are going up, thats not the british governments fault is it.

I must say Himse - I agree with Dark Orb.

This has sweet fuck all to do with Labour.

Tierk - It is hardly a 'huge new oil field' - just the media's way of selling stories. 700 million barrels of crude oil is minute. The world consumes roughly 30 billion barrels of oil a year. You do the maths. Not very fuckin much.

 

[Helme]

Once again, Labour running the country = it going to pot.

Bring on the tory

I didn't know Labour was the worlds goverment, thanks for the heads up I'll be sure to vote for this Tory guy next time.

 

[tierk]

.....Tierk - It is hardly a 'huge new oil field' - just the media's way of selling stories. 700 million barrels of crude oil is minute. The world consumes roughly 30 billion barrels of oil a year. You do the maths. Not very fuckin much.

This was just one example of new oil fields that have been discoevered recently.

Follow this simple link and you will see what i mean

new oil finds - Google Search

I only used that one as a example but please note new finds in Iraq, Iran and these are major finds when you take them all into acccount.

This areticle makes for interesting reading as well......

World oil supply still plentiful, study shows - Oil & energy - MSNBC.com

I can remember when i was in school - many many years ago - and we were taught in geography that the worlds oil supplies would run out in twenty years and guess what it was a lot longer then twenty years ago when i was in school.

 

[Azurus]

They price of fuel in the UK is mostly tax. If everything wasn't taxed to the hilt to cover up an inept governments spending, then a rise in the cost of crude oil wouldn't be so bad.

You're an idiot.

Learn to economics.

 

[Bugz]

They speculate that the world's greatest oil find may be found this month.

How much? 33 billion... and that's the GREATEST oil find.

Bare in mind, India and China are surging through the roof in terms of population and economical boundaries.

So, the greatest oil find in decades will last the economy today 1 year...I'd be scared if I were you

I'm not argueing how long oil reserves will last for - none of us know. I imagine some countries have hidden supplies etc. and so on. But the population and economical growth of the world as a whole is causing problems.

Oil reserves cannot last forever, and if they are finding new sources, that's all fair and well, but such phenomenal price increases are not just caused by speculation. We are running out - slowly, but surely.

 

[cHodAX]

They speculate that the world's greatest oil find may be found this month.

How much? 33 billion... and that's the GREATEST oil find.

Bare in mind, India and China are surging through the roof in terms of population and economical boundaries.

So, the greatest oil find in decades will last the economy today 1 year...I'd be scared if I were you

I'm not argueing how long oil reserves will last for - none of us know. I imagine some countries have hidden supplies etc. and so on. But the population and economical growth of the world as a whole is causing problems.

Oil reserves cannot last forever, and if they are finding new sources, that's all fair and well, but such phenomenal price increases are not just caused by speculation. We are running out - slowly, but surely.

America has vast oil reserves, it just isn't tapping them until it needs to. Better to use up all the middle east oil, fuck China over in the process and still have your own oil production to keep you going an extra 50 years.

 

[Azurus]

America has vast oil reserves, it just isn't tapping them until it needs to. Better to use up all the middle east oil, fuck China over in the process and still have your own oil production to keep you going an extra 50 years.

That's simply not true. The reserves in Alaska contain 10 billion barrels of oil - or about the amount the US consumes in a little more than a year.

 

[Gorbachioo]

The thing about those new oil fields is that often the oil is too hard to get to. Meaning that much of the energy that you get from the oil is used to get it up.


Also, world oil has exploration peaked decades ago. Its been going down ever since the 60's if i remember correctly. I cant remember what the amount of oil was that we need to keep up with oil consumption but it was something like finding a new Saudi Arabia every 10 years or something.

I'll try to find those numbers so we have something to work with.

edit: Americas oil production peaked in the 70's.

 

[cHodAX]

That's simply not true. The reserves in Alaska contain 10 billion barrels of oil - or about the amount the US consumes in a little more than a year.

That is what they are telling us bud, I don't believe it for a second. America has an emergency oil plan and it is based on thier own reserves, that is the get out jail free card should a global resource war start. I am not saying it is enough to keep thier economy going as it isn't. They don't have enough fuel all those petrol hungry SUV's but they will have plenty to get food in the shops and keep the tanks/planes/ships on the move, the Americans are hawkish and they have seen this coming for nearly 30 years, they have a plan trust me.

 

[tierk]

.....Oil reserves cannot last forever, and if they are finding new sources, that's all fair and well, but such phenomenal price increases are not just caused by speculation. We are running out - slowly, but surely.

Most of the increase can be put down to speculation, however, you are right it is not just speculation that is the cause of it but a number of factors that have created these high prices.

Lower value of the once mighty $, higher demand and a refusal on the part of OPEC countries to create over supply in the market, which will lead to a repeat of the fall in prices of oil in the early eighties.

The 1980s oil glut was a surplus of oil crude oil caused by falling demand following the 1973 and 1979 energy crises. The world price of oil, which had peaked in 1979 at over US$35 per barrel, collapsed in 1986 from $27 to below $10.

Why on earth would they want to do that??

 

[Dark Orb Choir]

You buy oil using dollars, if the american economy is on a downturn (euro stronger than dollar) the price of oil goes up because of the currency fluctuations. The americans will do alot of things to make sure that oil is bought in dollars......



if they changed it to euros then it might be more beneficial (cheaper)

 

[Gorbachioo]

You buy oil using dollars, if the american economy is on a downturn (euro stronger than dollar) the price of oil goes up because of the currency fluctuations. The americans will do alot of things to make sure that oil is bought in dollars......



if they changed it to euros then it might be more beneficial (cheaper)

Price of oil is now 13,5 times higher than it was at its lowest point. (which was in 2001 or something like that). How could that be explained with inflation?

 

[Dark Orb Choir]

well, just to let ou know the last time the oil prices were like this stupidly high, the pound was worth about $2.30 iirc, that was in 1980, in the last few years the dollar has fallen on its arse and oil prices have gone up as a result, plus war in iraq and china wanting more and more oil to feed their burgening economy, thats why china have a massive dollar reseve, just to buy oil..

 

[Gorbachioo]

Incase this hasnt been mentioned yet: The world has almost doubled its oil consumption every decade since the 50's. I see no reason why this trend wouldnt continue with china and india in the game so how could we possibly support this kind of growth with new oil finds? Or perhaps better drilling technology? -,-

 

[tierk]

Incase this hasnt been mentioned yet: The world has almost doubled its oil consumption every decade since the 50's.

Wrong.

Wolf at the Door chart

Thats for the USA and S. America and below is for Europe Eurasai and the UK. Figures in these charts show that it has doubled in the last 40 years and not every ten years as you are saying.

Wolf at the Door chart

China below is another matter

Wolf at the Door chart

However it is worth noting that China hardly imported any oil from outside until very recently as there own resources no longer keep up with demand.

I have heard /read (yes i know conspiracy theorists etc) that the current prices of oil are considered acceptable for the USA due to its stated policy of trying to wean Americans off oil and also its stated aim of producing alternate sources of energy.

Producing alternate sources of energy is only commercially viable with super high oil prices. So long as oil is cheap there is no benefit in investing in alternates.

I think we all agree that the amount of oil on or beneath this earth is finite and at some point it will run out. Its just a matter of time, however, i dont think the peak oil theory is the reason for the current high prices.

Current levels of production are more then sufficient to supply demand and there is enough spare capacity in the system to keep up with any spikes in demand.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Wrong.

Wolf at the Door chart

Thats for the USA and S. America and below is for Europe Eurasai and the UK. Figures in these charts show that it has doubled in the last 40 years and not every ten years as you are saying.

Wolf at the Door chart

Those charts cant be right. They dont make any sense. I mean, are you telling me Europes oil consumption has stayed the same since the 70's? The explanations he gives are recessions and awareness of climate change.

 

[tierk]

Those charts cant be right.....

I tell you what you go and dig around for the "right" figures and then come and tell me otherwise. The link below is a good article showing what is happeing in the EU over the last fifteen years or so....

Oil Consumption Statistics: The European Union's Oil Consumption Growth

Europe is not so muh dependant on Oil as a source of energy - in comparsion to the USA which has a heavy releiance on oil in its transport industries - and we have a high usage of alternatives to fall back on - gas, and now things like wind solar etc.

They dont make any sense. I mean, are you telling me Europes oil consumption has stayed the same since the 70's? The explanations he gives are recessions and awareness of climate change.

Short answer ? YES

 

[Gorbachioo]

Well okay, lets work with that then: World oil consumption doubles every 40 years. We consume around 85 million barrels a day atm. In 40 years it'll be 170 million barrels a day. That means we have to increase production capacity by over 20 million barrels a day every 10 years.

Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day so basically that means we have to find a new Saudi Arabia every 5 years. And not not to mention we have to find replacements for every oil well that runs out.

Good luck with that.


It is here my friend and it aint going nowhere.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Well okay, lets work with that then: World oil consumption doubles every 40 years. We consume around 85 million barrels a day atm. In 40 years it'll be 170 million barrels a day. That means we have to increase production capacity by over 20 million barrels a day every 10 years.

That if you don't take into consideration that the humanity is slowing down, growth wise etc.

I wouldn't be suprised if oil usee was halfed in next 20 years.

it's not just "we use mroe oil all the time!", it's about "we needed more oil all the time since we were a growing humanity. Now we can relax a bit, get more efficient oil uses etc.

 

[Bugz]

That if you don't take into consideration that the humanity is slowing down, growth wise etc..

!!!!!!

When you say humanity, what exactly do you mean by 'humanity is slowing down, growth rise.' Is that population?

If so - nahh.

 

[old.Tohtori]

!!!!!!

When you say humanity, what exactly do you mean by 'humanity is slowing down, growth rise.' Is that population?

If so - nahh.

Compared to the boom of 1950 to 2000, you can't expect the same exponential growth in cars, people, consuming etc in the 2000-2050 sector.