Politics Coronavirus

[~Yuckfou~]

Bizarre how the "austerity is killing people" crowd have done an almighty pivot to now lockdowns save lives. Even though what we'll have to go through to pay for all of this will be austerity with bells on - and recessions / depressions have a habit of costing lives too.

Anyway, speaking of almighty pivots, the WHO have woken up again:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/

Are they taking the piss?

I suspect the "austerity" situation is going to be hard here too, but I'd rather be skint than dead.

 

[Scouse]

what we'll have to go through to pay for all of this will be austerity with bells on

Why?

If anything Covid has exposed that austerity was nothing more than a political ideology - when needed it can be reversed on a whim.

This has always been obvious to people who understand that a country's finances are nothing like a household budget and that the imperative that these budgets must "be balanced" is a lie.

It's simply a choice.

 

[Bodhi]

I suspect the "austerity" situation is going to be hard here too, but I'd rather be skint than dead.

If only it was that simple a question.

 

[Scouse]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/

Are they taking the piss?

I suspect that they're saying Sweden's model is a good post-lockdown "new normal" for the rest of us.

Not that it's been effective in death minimisation - just that it's a good model for the rest of us when we break our lockdown.

 

[Bodhi]

Why?

If anything Covid has exposed that austerity was nothing more than a political ideology - when needed it can be reversed on a whim.

This has always been obvious to people who understand that a country's finances are nothing like a household budget and that the imperative that these budgets must "be balanced" is a lie.

It's simply a choice.

I'm not actually sure where to start with this. You're suggesting that because the Government got access to emergency funds to provide predominantly loans that have to be paid back - they could have done this at any time?

Hypothetical situation - a political party gets elected on a ticket of the magic money tree, get into power and immediately start spunking money up the wall on free broadband, gender neutral toilets, free marmots or whatever. A crisis like this comes along, and they need to find an extra £250 billion to stop the economy from further collapse. How long do you think it will take the money markets to laugh at us? To put it in personal spending terms, we'd have maxed out our credit cards and overdrafts on tat from Amazon, and when the boiler broke we'd have nowhere to go.

 

[Scouse]

The money markets dance to the rules set for them.

These are rules we make up. Simple as that. If the rules no longer work, we can make new ones.

That has always been the objection to austerity. It's an ideological choice to run the global financial system the way we do.

Your argument above says "if we obey these rules this is what happens..."

...

 

[Job]

So its not money ..its power.
Exactly whats to stop Nigeria asking for 5000bn so they can all have Ferraris.
I mean whats REALLY stopping them, we'll never pay back our loans.

 

[Yoni]

I suspect that they're saying Sweden's model is a good post-lockdown "new normal" for the rest of us.

Not that it's been effective in death minimisation - just that it's a good model for the rest of us when we break our lockdown.

Seriously severe lockdown and eradication from a country would have only worked under 2 situations

• Effective contact tracing (no European country was prepared to do this and became overwhelmed very quickly)
• Shutdown very very early c. 10 people (like new zealand).

If you already have a distribution chain in place for tracing then you are ahead of he game ie S Korea who have not locked down at all and to a lessor extent Germany (who utilised semi effective testing and an early shutdown). If you don't you can see the results in other countries in Europe notably Italy, Spain, Belgium, UK.

If you have the presence of mind or are lucky enough (because there has been an element) to shut down before getting beyond containment or just after then there is an opportunity to eradicate or reduce (New Zealand, Norway, Finland, Denmark etc etc). If any country went ahead with large events February / March or there are a high proportion of individuals who visited a country of high infection during a period of uncertainty (February) - UK, Sweden (specifically Stockholmers) then restrictive measures will ONLY flatten the curve and save the lives of those that may have been lost by overwhelming the hospitals.

The situation that some countries find themselves in now is how to release restrictions:
In Sweden we have been told that our lives will be like this as it is today well into the Summer with restrictions on travelling outside your near location - so we will probably not be allowed to tavel outside of Stockholm county - should people for example screw up this this weekend (it is Valborg tonight and Labour Day tomorrow) then there will be further restrictions.
In New Zealand it is unsure what will happen - how will they open their boarders to anyone before a vaccine?
In Germany and Denmark infections are growing due to the gentle release of lockdown and Germany have stated that they will not move further in their opening up for a while longer. Denmark is under extreme political pressure to open up further.
In the UK there is no open discussion as there is in other countries it is almost like they do not trust the UK citizens with the discussion.

In sweden I understand the numbers and know the mistakes that were made (key issues has nothing to do with level of lockdown) - for the other countries it is not as clear as to why they have the results they do by doing everything "correctly" / according to the rest of Europe - Ireland especially.

 

[Job]

Well its still got 450 thousand to go to catch up with seasonal flu.

Which is a fact not my opinion.

So its likely it will kill at least that before the years over

 

[Scouse]

Thanks for the auto-facepalm @Yoni - I actually agree with the vast majority of your above post.

In Sweden we have been told that our lives will be like this as it is today well into the Summer with restrictions on travelling outside your near location - so we will probably not be allowed to tavel outside of Stockholm county - should people for example screw up this this weekend (it is Valborg tonight and Labour Day tomorrow) then there will be further restrictions.

Which is great - and the point I was making - that we'll move to a Swedish model post-lockdown. Which I think is a "good thing".

I also like the fact that Sweden has relied on being open and honest with it's well-educated population. Lots to admire.

But the fact is, Sweden is doing worse than it's peers in terms of deaths and infection rates increase much faster in Sweden than in it's locked-down counterparts. Maybe Sweden's gambling that secondary infections are unlikely really (and who's to know) and pre-vaccination herd immunity will be a thang. But right now the statement that it's not been amazingly effective in terms of death minimisation is borne out by the figures. Long term? Who knows.

Anyway - the really good thing is that we do have a model to copy, that looks like it could be effective for the longer term. (Although, who knows what'll happen when families who are geographically dispersed start binning off "local" lockdowns - we've built a country in the UK where lots of people live a long way from each other).

 

[Scouse]

Well its still got 450 thousand to go to catch up with seasonal flu.

We don't lock the country down for flu m8. You need to look like-for like. How many do you think flu would kill if we locked down the planet?

 

[Yoni]

Thanks for the auto-facepalm @Yoni - I actually agree with the vast majority of your above post.

Which is great - and the point I was making - that we'll move to a Swedish model post-lockdown. Which I think is a "good thing".

I also like the fact that Sweden has relied on being open and honest with it's well-educated population. Lots to admire.

But the fact is, Sweden is doing worse than it's peers in terms of deaths and infection rates increase much faster in Sweden than in it's locked-down counterparts. Maybe Sweden's gambling that secondary infections are unlikely really (and who's to know) and pre-vaccination herd immunity will be a thang. But right now the statement that it's not been amazingly effective in terms of death minimisation is borne out by the figures. Long term? Who knows.

Anyway - the really good thing is that we do have a model to copy, that looks like it could be effective for the longer term. (Although, who knows what'll happen when families who are geographically dispersed start binning off "local" lockdowns - we've built a country in the UK where lots of people live a long way from each other).

There are very good reasons for the differences between the statistics which have nothing to do with lockdown. Sadly it was the events leading up to March 13 which caused the many deaths that occured afterwards.

1) Sportlöv in Stockholm (families go skiiing many in N Italy and Austria) - (did not occur in neighboring countries)
2) Melodifestivalan in Friends Arena 7th March 50k people (at this point it was throught that those who had returned from Italy / Austria had everything contained.....) (does not occur in neighboring countries)
3) visists to old peoples homes were allowed up until 1st April (retarded ommision from science community)

The combination of both meant that Sweden missed the containment phase completely as ithe virus was already running rampent (including in the homes for the elderly - sadly in Stockholm over 50% of deaths and in the country 30%) - as soon as this was established they moved in majority to the restrictions we have today, increasing again this week to include late term pregnant women in the group for high risk.

As I have repeatedly stated Sweden are not permitted to introduce curfews (as our neighbours have done) - as much as you would like them to have done it is not possible so they have to work with recommendations and education.

Sweden's model is problematic especially when the weather is warmer and we will see what the news states about tonight (hugh parties normally) and tomorrow (hugh demonstrations).

 

[Yoni]

Well its still got 450 thousand to go to catch up with seasonal flu.

Which is a fact not my opinion.

So its likely it will kill at least that before the years over

Job it is the numbers of people that that would have died been if countries with high densitites had not locked down. You absolutaely can not compare the statistics with flu statistics with CV19 statistics at all - as no action is taken by any country during a serious flu outbreak except vaccination (which is not always efficient).

 

[Job]

I would beg to differ that vaccination doesnt make a difference..if not then why are we trying a covid one.
Seasonal flu mutates, we base every vaccine on a rough guess of the mutation.

As Ive said many time...its perception based, if we'd have started counting up flu deaths on the front of every paper and interviewing crying relatives.
Then we'd all be wearing hazmats 24/7.
The guy who died from covid from the local train station had his coffin driven to crem covered in Everton flags and the streets lined with people clapping.
If he'd have died of a heart attack no one would have heard of him.

 

[Moriath]

I wasn't comfortable with his ban. He's a cunt, but then cunts exist. Going "lalalala" and banning him risks turning the place into an echo chamber.

Plus - all that happens is that the next most disagreeable person becomes the focus of the forum's ire - so if you follow that logic it ends up with one lonely person sat on the forum, happy that nobody disagrees with him, but still - no-one to talk to.

Like Terry Pratchett said: The saying" Hell is other people" is wrong - Hell is no other people.

Nope hell is other people i agree with him. I could live as a hermit no problems

 

[dysfunction]

I would beg to differ that vaccination doesnt make a difference..if not then why are we trying a covid one.
Seasonal flu mutates, we base every vaccine on a rough guess of the mutation.

As Ive said many time...its perception based, if we'd have started counting up flu deaths on the front of every paper and interviewing crying relatives.
Then we'd all be wearing hazmats 24/7.
The guy who died from covid from the local train station had his coffin driven to crem covered in Everton flags and the streets lined with people clapping.
If he'd have died of a heart attack no one would have heard of him.

No we wouldnt be.

 

[Moriath]

It cant be about saving lives..only a vaccine will do that, lockdown just delays the deaths.
And introduces considerably more in the long run.

By lowering the amount infected at any one time it means we have the resources to put them on ventilators etc if they need it. Many more will die if the resources are over whelmed. Yes there are those who will die despite ventilators. But many more who would die if they wasnt a vent space for them. So saving lives

 

[Yoni]

I would beg to differ that vaccination doesnt make a difference..if not then why are we trying a covid one.
Seasonal flu mutates, we base every vaccine on a rough guess of the mutation.

As Ive said many time...its perception based, if we'd have started counting up flu deaths on the front of every paper and interviewing crying relatives.
Then we'd all be wearing hazmats 24/7.
The guy who died from covid from the local train station had his coffin driven to crem covered in Everton flags and the streets lined with people clapping.
If he'd have died of a heart attack no one would have heard of him.

Your last point is valid however doing this is how the community copes with something that has removed everything that is normal from their lives.... it is their way of mourning and getting through whatever comes next.

What you could try to appreciate is that they were able to have a funeral.... there are areas of the world that due to the volumes of deaths at this time no funeral can occur and mass graves are being dug and used. The emotional scars that will bring to those who have lost loved ones is immeasurable.

 

[Moriath]

Well its still got 450 thousand to go to catch up with seasonal flu.

Which is a fact not my opinion.

So its likely it will kill at least that before the years over

Which it would do if it is left to run rife through the global like seasonal flu does

 

[Embattle]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-k5J4RxQdE

 

[~Yuckfou~]

Coronavirus: Firms ask government 'do you want our PPE or not?'

 

[Embattle]

Coronavirus deaths: how does Britain compare with other countries? | David Spiegelhalter

 

[Yoni]

Coronavirus deaths: how does Britain compare with other countries? | David Spiegelhalter

I agree that increase in deaths over an x number of years average should be used to assess against other countries. There is far to much potential out there to manipulate the numbers to do it otherwise.

 

[~Yuckfou~]

So now according to Boris face coverings aren't "weak science" anymore, they were yesterday.
Apparently the UK closed down earlier in the pandemic than Italy, Spain, France and Germany.
Buh?

 

[Yoni]

So now according to Boris face coverings aren't "weak science" anymore, they were yesterday.
Apparently the UK closed down earlier in the pandemic than Italy, Spain, France and Germany.
Buh?

I think her said earlier in the curve

 

[~Yuckfou~]

I think her said earlier in the curve

I'll stand corrected. Is that true though? I'm not sure.

 

[~Yuckfou~]

It has been announced here that we are able to go out for "exercise or sport" within 1km of our houses for one hour as from tomorrow. Times are restricted 8am til 10am and 8pm til 11pm, unless your municipality has less than 5,000 inhabitants in which case there are no restrictions when you can go. Face coverings are recommended but not compulsory. No mingling with others is allowed.
Can't wait for the two of us to go out with the dog in the countryside without fear of a fine, happy days.

 

[Job]

Its all getting a bit complacent out there, loads of traffic, 6 young lads in the petrol station turned up in van, quite clearly not related and walked around in a pack, putting each other in play neck holds, all stood together buying the stuff.
Scallies on bikes, who just love to cycle up to our town and hang out on street corners in pack of 5+, seems worse than ever.

 

[Job]

Elon Musk slams "fascist" social distancing measures in rant about Tesla production - CBS News

 

[caLLous]