Crap Afghanistan

[Gwadien]

I did it, I made a thread.

Found this on Wikipedia which I thought was quite interesting; 2021 Taliban offensive - Wikipedia

How poorly equipped was the Afghan Army? I imagined that the US forces would have pretty much left behind everything for them, but most of their equipment seems to be very old Russian stuff, unless the Americans were really good at destroying their stuff?

 

[dysfunction]

Hopefully we can move all the Afghanistan chat stuff from the random annoying thread @Jupitus to this one?

 

[Jupitus]

Hopefully we can move all the Afghanistan chat stuff from the random annoying thread @Jupitus to this one?

Bit tired and pissed right now but I'll see what I can do later

 

[Raven]

Running out of peanut butter.

 

[Embattle]

The Taliban leaders in line to become de facto rulers of Afghanistan

The task facing the new head of state will be more challenging than 1996. But who is in the running for a governing role?

www.theguardian.com

 

[Raven]

It's going to be like football at school, except replace team captains with governments and players with tribal nutters.

 

[Scouse]

Bit tired and pissed right now but I'll see what I can do later

Nah. Leave it there. Don't need thread sanitisation.

I randomly put it in the thread because I was annoyed and it sparked. It's natural.

 

[Scouse]

Can we name this the "Joe Biden IS a cunt" thread tho @Jupitus?

Why is the Taliban's Kabul victory being compared to the fall of Saigon?

Many have drawn parallels with America's withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975 - but is this fair?

www.bbc.co.uk

I have little doubt that it's going to hurt Biden," says Christopher Phelps, an associate professor of American Studies at the University of Nottingham. "It's going to be viewed as a loss, and possibly as a disgrace - it really was his call, fairly or not.

Despite what other Prez's did or wanted to do - Joe did it.

 

[Raven]

It doesn't matter how you look at it, we lost a war that we should never have started.

Aims of the war;
Revenge - Done
Stop the Taliban - Complete failure.
Stabilise the region - Made it infinitely worse, not just in Afghanistan
Assert dominance in the region - haha, lol, Chinese by proxy soon.
Build public support for our interference - Christ no, "We" won't be getting involved, anywhere, for a long time. China and Russia will carve the region up, and they don't care about shithousery, hidden or not.

Asia will go even more mental, likely the same with Africa.

But yeah, more important things to think about, left and right and which side you are.

 

[DaGaffer]

Should have listened to Vizzini

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LUUk6wVNrY

 

[Embattle]

I view it that Obama pressed the accelerator pedal to withdrawal, Trump pushed it all the way down and Joe forgot where the brake pedal was.

 

[Bodhi]

View: https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1427529181169135644?s=20


Probably should have done that then.

 

[Deebs]

Watched this Turkish Air Force plane land at Kabul just over 2 hours ago and it now prepping for takeoff (it is actually in the air).

 

[Scouse]

View: https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1427529181169135644?s=20


Probably should have done that then.

Yep.

A few thousand troops, continually stationed.

Biden is a spineless wanker. (And watch how the democrats achieve absolutely nothing else that they desparately need to do)

 

[Bodhi]

Well, we were told when he was inaugurated that the grown ups were back in the room, and the days of blaming everyone else for cock ups were over.

Which is why he's blamed everyone other than himself, and the Taliban, curiously enough.

If I lived in Taiwan right now, I'd be shitting meself.

 

[Scouse]

Yep. If he was Trump the press would be going utterly batshit about him over here.

 

[Raven]

Or Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia. They are all on a shopping list. America won't be getting involved.

 

[DaGaffer]

View: https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1427529181169135644?s=20


Probably should have done that then.

Of course if you don't believe the Afghan army will ever beat the Taliban (and they couldn't), even with 4500 "advisors", all you're doing is delaying the inevitable. This is exactly what happened in Vietnam, and it would be no different here; the Americans would either get drawn back in to prop up the ANA, or eventually the ANA collapses anyway and everyone's running up the runway.

If the Taliban could be contained in Afghanistan, they could be beaten, but they can't because the Pakistan border is effectively invisible, just like Laos and Cambodia in the Vietnam War. It's incredible that the US government lacks the institutional memory to see the exact same problems as Vietnam, a war fought in living memory.

Biden is being pilloried for this because it happened on his watch, but let's not kid ourselves that it wasn't going to happen eventually.

 

[Gwadien]

Of course if you don't believe the Afghan army will ever beat the Taliban (and they couldn't), even with 4500 "advisors", all you're doing is delaying the inevitable. This is exactly what happened in Vietnam, and it would be no different here; the Americans would either get drawn back in to prop up the ANA, or eventually the ANA collapses anyway and everyone's running up the runway.

If the Taliban could be contained in Afghanistan, they could be beaten, but they can't because the Pakistan border is effectively invisible, just like Laos and Cambodia in the Vietnam War. It's incredible that the US government lacks the institutional memory to see the exact same problems as Vietnam, a war fought in living memory.

Biden is being pilloried for this because it happened on his watch, but let's not kid ourselves that it wasn't going to happen eventually.

Of course it was going to happen eventually, but that is not the complaint, the complaint is why was it so hasty and why does it seem that the US gave Afghanistan to the Taliban?

All this new talk of the new reformed Taliban, judging by the articles I've seen, the Taliban have reformed, but people are still adopting their rules out of fear.

But I suspect that's all bullshit, and it's a part of the agreement with the US - Give the impression that you've changed, until we're long gone, then you're free to take Afghanistan back to the middle ages.

Edit- Plus with the fall of Iraq/Syria to ISIS in very recent memory, that's the lesson that I question wasn't taken more into account tbh.

 

[Embattle]

The US didn't give Afghanistan to the Taliban, the Afghans got an additional 6/7 years on top of the 14 already spent there when an initial plan was made to withdraw in 2014. If not now then when and would anything truly of changed, it wasn't some brilliant move by the Taliban that won multiple battles but the sad fact after many years of training and resource the majority of the Afghan military just melted away and wasn't willing to fight.

 

[Hawkwind]

Of course it was going to happen eventually, but that is not the complaint, the complaint is why was it so hasty and why does it seem that the US gave Afghanistan to the Taliban?

All this new talk of the new reformed Taliban, judging by the articles I've seen, the Taliban have reformed, but people are still adopting their rules out of fear.

But I suspect that's all bullshit, and it's a part of the agreement with the US - Give the impression that you've changed, until we're long gone, then you're free to take Afghanistan back to the middle ages.

Edit- Plus with the fall of Iraq/Syria to ISIS in very recent memory, that's the lesson that I question wasn't taken more into account tbh.

I think it's clear Biden and his team are totally incompetent, they ignored all advice from outside and even internally to accelerate the process. He can't blame anyone else as he has had time enough to change policy on the issue.

Although scenes in Kahbul yesterday were relatively peaceful I doubt it will last that way too long. On CNN they were heard chanting the usual, god is great and death to America. Just a matter of time before things kick off again.

 

[Scouse]

Of course if you don't believe the Afghan army will ever beat the Taliban (and they couldn't), even with 4500 "advisors", all you're doing is delaying the inevitable.

I disagree. I think you get into a generational game.

If you keep the country relatively stable for long enough for a shitton of the taliban to die out then you're effectively achieving the thing that 3rd generation muslim immigrants in the UK have - first gen, not english speaking, properly batshit, second gen speak english, still batshit but less so, third generation suffer honour killings at the hands of their batshit granddads because they start shagging white people and integrating with western culture much more closely and so on, and so on.

So we stay there for 60 years. Then when we leave the general population will have the inertia required to resist islamic batshittery and maybe, just maybe, girls will be allowed to learn to read and write.

"As long as it takes" was a mantra.

Well, we lied. We can't be trusted. This is how long it was always going to take. So we burned up troops lives, Afghani lives, money, and our ability to argue that we'll lend "support" to any other country - they'll be able to point at us and say we can't be trusted.

Because we can't.

 

[Gwadien]

I think it's clear Biden and his team are totally incompetent, they ignored all advice from outside and even internally to accelerate the process. He can't blame anyone else as he has had time enough to change policy on the issue.

Although scenes in Kahbul yesterday were relatively peaceful I doubt it will last that way too long. On CNN they were heard chanting the usual, god is great and death to America. Just a matter of time before things kick off again.

I don't think I agree.

The only people in the US who are going to complain about this are the coastal 'fucking left' (and the Republicans, because both sides will make everything into an issue), the people that don't have an alternative to vote for, I'd imagine he's scored some brownie points in Republican areas, but with politics being so polarised, I'm not actually sure that'll translate into votes.

I don't think mistakes happen in any developed world Government, everything is calculated for some reason.

 

[DaGaffer]

Of course it was going to happen eventually, but that is not the complaint, the complaint is why was it so hasty and why does it seem that the US gave Afghanistan to the Taliban?

All this new talk of the new reformed Taliban, judging by the articles I've seen, the Taliban have reformed, but people are still adopting their rules out of fear.

But I suspect that's all bullshit, and it's a part of the agreement with the US - Give the impression that you've changed, until we're long gone, then you're free to take Afghanistan back to the middle ages.

Edit- Plus with the fall of Iraq/Syria to ISIS in very recent memory, that's the lesson that I question wasn't taken more into account tbh.

"Hasty" is just a matter of perspective; once Pompeo had thrown the Afghan government under the bus with his side deal with the Taliban, the clock was ticking; that's why the Taliban has been able to move so fast, but it started months ago, and the ANA themselves have been melting away since last November (in fact there's quite a bit of evidence that large numbers of them were never "there" in the first place). Once again, the comparisons to Vietnam are stark; once the Americans undercut the South Vietnam government by dealing with the North unilaterally, the RVNA (southern army) started to fold as their leadership and then rank and file soldiers started to slip away. Then the world gets images of helicopters on the embassy roof and everyone's talking about "sudden collapse", but it actually took months.

If Trump had won the election the Americans would have been gone by May. I don't particularly blame Biden, because its ultimately intellectually dishonest; the failures are structural, long term (longer term than just the last 20 years) and inevitable. Blaming Biden is just putting a face on the west's failures to make everyone feel better.

 

[Scouse]

I don't think I agree.

The only people in the US who are going to complain about this are the coastal 'fucking left' (and the Republicans, because both sides will make everything into an issue), the people that don't have an alternative to vote for, I'd imagine he's scored some brownie points in Republican areas, but with politics being so polarised, I'm not actually sure that'll translate into votes.

I don't think mistakes happen in any developed world Government, everything is calculated for some reason.

So the "moral" democrats don't give a shit about doing the right thing more than anyone else.

The right thing being not abandoning the Afghani people to medievil islamic lifestyles, punishment beatings and the subjugation of their women.

But if Joe Biden doesn't think that's an aim worth taking a little flack for - considering there were troops there anyway - and wants to appease republican voters who might think they're just a bunch of sand niggers and ragheads anyway - then fine. Let him chase that vote.

But it makes him a spineless immoral cunt. Which he clearly is.

 

[Scouse]

If Trump had won the election the Americans would have been gone by May. I don't particularly blame Biden, because its ultimately intellectually dishonest; the failures are structural, long term (longer term than just the last 20 years) and inevitable. Blaming Biden is just putting a face on the west's failures to make everyone feel better.

Disagree.

1) Biden made the call. He could have not done it.
2) Nothing is inevitable.

 

[DaGaffer]

I disagree. I think you get into a generational game.

If you keep the country relatively stable for long enough for a shitton of the taliban to die out then you're effectively achieving the thing that 3rd generation muslim immigrants in the UK have - first gen, not english speaking, properly batshit, second gen speak english, still batshit but less so, third generation suffer honour killings at the hands of their batshit granddads because they start shagging white people and integrating with western culture much more closely and so on, and so on.

So we stay there for 60 years. Then when we leave the general population will have the inertia required to resist islamic batshittery and maybe, just maybe, girls will be allowed to learn to read and write.

"As long as it takes" was a mantra.

Well, we lied. We can't be trusted. This is how long it was always going to take. So we burned up troops lives, Afghani lives, money, and our ability to argue that we'll lend "support" to any other country - they'll be able to point at us and say we can't be trusted.

Because we can't.

The Taliban haven't died out though; they've continued to go to school in Pakistan in Saudi funded madrassas beyond the reach of the Americans. They were never going to die out and the hearts and minds battle is being fought in another country before they pick up their first AK-47.

 

[Embattle]

@DaGaffer I thought the southern Vietnam army was referred to as the ARVN.

The majority of you are deluding yourself if you think that the majority of Americans care, they rarely want to get involved directly and this will be old news rather quickly unless needed to points score.

 

[Gwadien]

So the "moral" democrats don't give a shit about doing the right thing more than anyone else.

The right thing being not abandoning the Afghani people to medievil islamic lifestyles, punishment beatings and the subjugation of their women.

But if Joe Biden doesn't think that's an aim worth taking a little flack for - considering there were troops there anyway - and wants to appease republican voters who might think they're just a bunch of sand niggers and ragheads anyway - then fine. Let him chase that vote.

But it makes him a spineless immoral cunt. Which he clearly is.

I never said that Republicans were immoral, stop putting words in my mouth

The fact is that when Trump negotiated with the Taliban his supporters agreed with him.

If anything, I'm ripping into Dem voters because I know they'll still vote for him even if they massively disagree on this.

 

[DaGaffer]

Disagree.

1) Biden made the call. He could have not done it.
2) Nothing is inevitable.

He could have not done it now, but yes, this is inevitable, and everyone has known it for a very long time.

Apart from anything else, the Americans have some serious future financial problems with their defence budget; at the moment, Afghanistan is about $50bn a year, out of a budget of about $700bn, but, the war itself has burned through the service life of vast amounts of their assets, especially aircraft, but also most of their armour and AFVs, which is leading to a looming capital crisis a few years hence. They would be faced with replacing worn out kit to continue the same Afghanistan insurgency mission, OR, what they actually want and need to do, which is modernise (especially the navy) to counter the growing threat of China. The whole US Navy is potentially fucked by Chinese hypersonic missiles, and they currently have no countermeasures, because stuff like railguns are really fucking expensive. They have a ton of issues like this and are going to have to spend big to even stand still, and Afghanistan can't be sustained. I have no doubt the bean counters have been flagging this for a long time and what's going on now is ripping the plaster off, because five minutes from now we'll all have forgotten about it, because it's brown people far away.