Politics 2024/25 General Election Voting Intention (2022)

[Scouse]

Reading about Burnham on the Guardian, it seems like he has some ideas that aren't totally terrible.

On the face of it.

I actually like the man - although he lost to Starmer during the last ding-dong. He did well with Hillsborough. And his instincts are right.

But he's economically illiterate. The UK's benefit bill outweighs income tax receipts.

So, unless he's going to fix that, which he won't, then it's more of the same shit.

 

[Overdriven]

Woman who can't do her job praises man who can do his job for leaving, so she can continue to not do her job without risk of being fired.

More at 10.

 

[DaGaffer]

But he's economically illiterate. The UK's benefit bill outweighs income tax receipts.

No it doesn't.

And I'm not sure how that makes him economically illiterate anyway as income tax is only about a quarter of general taxation..

Which isn't to say he's not going to face major funding problems, and Labour inherited a total financial shitshow, but they knew that was going to happen and didn't make a proper and honest manifesto to face up to it, and have been living with the consequences. Burnham doesn't have a magic bullet to fix that; certainly not quickly and "Manchesterism" is not a short term fix.

I wish him well and I suspect he'll at least be decisive (from what I've read) but anyone expecting sunlit uplands any time this decade is going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[Scouse]

No it doesn't.

Yes it does. And has done every year since 2013/14.

In the 2025/26 financial year, UK welfare spending reached £333 billion. Income tax receipts were £331 billion.

Under Starmer tax and welfare spending have both increased - so materially they're clearly tax and spend. But jobs metrics are going in the wrong direction, freedom of speech is going in the wrong direction, and like you said - there aren't any golden shores or sunlit uplands...

 

[DaGaffer]

Yes it does. And has done every year since 2013/14.

In the 2025/26 financial year, UK welfare spending reached £333 billion. Income tax receipts were £331 billion.

Under Starmer tax and welfare spending have both increased - so materially they're clearly tax and spend. But jobs metrics are going in the wrong direction, freedom of speech is going in the wrong direction, and like you said - there aren't any golden shores or sunlit uplands...

Oh shush, you're taking out NI to make a pointless point even though it's classed as Income Tax (as is capital gains which makes the number even higher).

HMRC tax receipts and National Insurance contributions for the UK (annual bulletin)

www.gov.uk

 

[Scouse]

Oh shush, you're taking out NI to make a pointless point even though it's classed as Income Tax (as is capital gains which makes the number even higher).

NI <> Income tax
Capital Gains <> Income tax

Income tax is what you get charged on the full pot of PAYE receipts in the UK, subject to different levels based on income. You're bending the definitions here, not me.

Regardless - even if I was wrong (I'm not) and it was just close (which it isn't) then it's not on, frankly. The knowledge that everything I pay in income tax is going on a benefits bill is disgraceful.

 

[Embattle]

Welfare payments have not exceeded income tax ‘for the first time ever’ – Full Fact

Welfare spending, which includes state pensions, has been higher than income tax for at least 13 years, contrary to a claim in the Conservatives’ Alternative King’s Speech.

fullfact.org

 

[Scouse]

Welfare payments have not exceeded income tax ‘for the first time ever’ – Full Fact

Welfare spending, which includes state pensions, has been higher than income tax for at least 13 years, contrary to a claim in the Conservatives’ Alternative King’s Speech.

fullfact.org

Did you read it @Embattle? (As I can't believe you posted in my support)?

like I said: And has done every year since 2013/14 - which your page shows, including a graph.




So then. Who's for massively cutting benefit payments? Because I, for one, am.

 

[Gwadien]

Isn't this the metric that matters?

If so, doesn't this mean we should shoot the elderly and disabled? It's not a 'you're all lazy' issue?

 

[Scouse]

Isn't this the metric that matters?

Nope. They're ideological metrics produced by Torsten Bell - Labour Politician - Labour thinktank's numbers, showing what Torsten wants to show.

So, the real story is that nominal GDP is growing because of inflation - so Torsten's graph shows % staying flat. But real GDP is flatlining too - so what's actually happening is the tax burden is rising massively and people feel it in their pockets (fiscal drag being a main culprit) whilst our economy flatlines.

If Real GDP was rising, then that'd be something I could potentially support. But what the two graphs together show is that working taxpayers are getting rinsed for benefit claimants.

Torsten's graph is ideological labour shithousery.

 

[Embattle]

Did you read it @Embattle? (As I can't believe you posted in my support)?

like I said: And has done every year since 2013/14 - which your page shows, including a graph.

View attachment 52067


So then. Who's for massively cutting benefit payments? Because I, for one, am.

You seem to think I didn't read it, I did, and it is a fact, whether it supports your position doesn't really matter. This is also a fact:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8513/

Every party knows the triple lock pension is unaffordable, but none of them seems to want to change it once in power.

 

[Scouse]

Every party knows the triple lock pension is unaffordable, but none of them seems to want to change it once in power.

It's not the pensions tbh. Pension spending as a proportion of GDP in the UK (real GDP) is pretty low compared to the rest of the G20. And you've "paid into" (lol) your pension all your working life - for a paltry 12k/year. Some people don't have private pensions, so that's all they've got to live on.

This is about us spacking more money on benefits in total than we're bringing in in Income Tax.

And all the time debt as a proportion of GDP is growing. We're at material risk of an IMF bailout a la the 1970s. And if the IMF come in, then we'll cut fucking everything - because we'll have been told to by our technocrat masters.

If Britain doesn't want to get treated like the slave country it is, then it needs to stop spunking so much money on welfare. The pension bill hasn't increased in-line with that graph - that's people paying out in-work benefits. Labour refusing to keep the two-child benefit cap (which was popular with large swathes of the population - because why the fuck should working people fund non-working people's children).

If you turn around and say "benefits = food stamps and a roof over your head and nothing more" then maybe a lot more people would get behind it.

 

[Embattle]

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/what-are-effects-triple-lock-and-how-could-it-be-reformed

 

[Raven]

I like Burnham, and fuck it, we might as well give it a go, instead of more of the same.