Politics 2024/25 General Election Voting Intention (2022)

[Embattle]

I'm not convinced the majority care either way, they just don't want them here, that has happened as successive governments juggle the balls and drop them all.

 

[DaGaffer]

Wrong. Social media bullshit would be all migrants are rapists - actual figures would dictate otherwise.


Low hanging fruit would be "All migrants are rapists"

Actual optics are: a large portion of migrants are committing crime (note, I didn't say rapists)

No, "actual optics" by your own calculations, are that migrants are actually committing far fewer crimes per cap than the general population.

You're doing that thing that humans so often do, be incredibly bad at assessing risk. It's the old "car journey to the airport is more dangerous than the flight" problem.

 

[Raven]

Someone has to wipe our arses, when we get old.

 

[Deebs]

Someone has to wipe our arses, when we get old.

I thought that was why I had children? Did I fuck up on another matter?

 

[Gwadien]

I thought that was why I had children? Did I fuck up on another matter?

Have you not got your own personal lil asylum seeker?

 

[Deebs]

Have you not got your own personal lil asylum seeker?

Not yet, can I buy them at Blackbushe Market for a tenner?

 

[Gwadien]

Not yet, can I buy them at Blackbushe Market for a tenner?

No, you have to go to a migrant hotel, hurl abuse at them and eventually they come out and surrender to you, then you throw a Poké-grant ball at them and they're your property.

 

[Gwadien]

Palestine Action protesters arrested by police at London demo

Wild.

 

[caLLous]

I saw an article earlier about an independent shopkeeper putting up a sign that mentioned "scumbag shoplifters" and the police told him to take it down because it might cause offence. :\

edit - 'Woke' police tell shopkeeper to take down sign calling shoplifters 'scumbags'

 

[Deebs]

Fucking hillbilly cuntry.

I asked the following question to Google's AI and got fucked off by the response

Google Search

 

[Tom]

I saw an article earlier about an independent shopkeeper putting up a sign that mentioned "scumbag shoplifters" and the police told him to take it down because it might cause offence. :\

edit - 'Woke' police tell shopkeeper to take down sign calling shoplifters 'scumbags'

I'm willing to bet money that the police received a complaint, checked it out, told the shopkeeper what'd happened, asked him if he'd consider taking it down to keep the peace, and the shopkeeper went mental, selling the story to the Telegraph. The story came from the Telegraph and they're basically billionaire-loving right-wing fruitcakes.

 

[Gwadien]

View: https://youtu.be/Hn0rB4vcCTs?t=1596


Listen from time stamp, its like a minute long...

 

[Scouse]

Meh. There's so much crap in that I don't know where to start tbh.

It's tired, old and hasn't read the room.

 

[Scouse]

I'd augment that with that there's a lot of the obvious frustrations - I've voiced exactly the same repeatedly on this forum - but there's still a refusal to understand what Farage is (saying) he's offering.

As long as there's no engagement, there's no hope of (what passes for in this country) a political alternative.

 

[Gwadien]

Meh. There's so much crap in that I don't know where to start tbh.

It's tired, old and hasn't read the room.

I know you'll probably be put off by Alastair Campbell and maybe Rory Stewart, nor am I suggesting that them making a party is a reality, but to give you an idea of what this guy has found attractive about them, and I know you won't agree with all of them.

They call themselves centrist dads, but to give you an idea what they stand for:
- Trump - don't pander to him, be civil, but don't be weak.
- Ukraine - needs more support from Europe.
- Israel - Quite sympathetic very early on but quickly became very critical.
- Farage - Don't pander to the far right, highlight the positives of migration.
- Environment - very sad that the Green New Bill was scrapped.
- Trans - Important to protect all minorities, have grown up conversations and don't go backwards.
- Democracy - Have citizen assemblies so people have a direct say and increasing engagement in politics.
- Palestine Action - Critical of them being a terrorist organisation, like me said why aren't they asking the military questions instead.
- Eu - Closer ties
- Very supportive of the British culture and critical of all recent governments for not properly supporting.

I could go on but cba

 

[Raven]

Everything is fucked, and I am sick of it.

 

[Gwadien]

View: https://youtu.be/FYOnJ49e_YU?si=-LQaLl1WrjsG1-wB

 

[Scouse]

I could go on but cba

I can

I think Alistair Campbell's an asshat, and he's shown it again and again. But that's not why I'm not arsed. It's just they represent no change whatsoever. They have no answers, they are saying nothing new - and that's clearly not what people want.

Lets engage on the most contentious of your topics there (ignoring Israel. They were fucking idiots if they had any sympathy in the first place - it was a matter of time if you hold an entire population in an open prison and have openly fucked them over for years):

- Farage - Don't pander to the far right, highlight the positives of migration.

People are sick of having the "positives of migration" highlighted to them. It's been highlighted to them for decades, and especially highlighted to them when Blair's Labour Government massively opened the floodgates.

When I say floodgates, I mean floodgates. Swamped. Inundated. A fucking shitload of legal migration. We all know this happened. Is still happening. But if migration is so fucking amazing at fixing all our economic problems, why are our economic problems not fixed? It's not doing what the Alistair Campbells of this world - one of the people in government when said floodgates opened - say it's doing.

It's not migrant's fault - the UK economy (GDP) has benefiited from migration, the migrants have obviously won because they're better off economically, but it's absolutely borne out as true that working class Britons have been shafted economically because the government's policies haven't distributed the gains from migration to this cohort. That ultimately, the working classes would have been better off without the massive influx of migrants since the Blair Labour government detonated our doors.

For the working class people in the UK the migration, started by Blair (and still increasing), has resulted in -

• Wage Suppression: In sectors like construction, logistics, hospitality, lower-skilled jobs - low wage migrants have destroyed the bargaining power of native workers.
• Job Insecurity: Migrants benefit even when the contracts they accept are precarious - they're still better off. But natives have had the rug pulled out from underneath them. In the same way that globalisation means that middle class workers see their jobs offshored, working class folk have to suck a dick and like it.
• Housing & Services strain - we may have cheaper migrant workers, but we've not kept up with infrastructure. Hospitals, dentists, it's a fucking shitshow.

Policy failures may be to blame. But then, it was always a lie that migration was there to help anything other than GDP.

And the left, the rabid idiot left, are still telling people that they're better than them, that if people want to stop migration that they're probably racist. Remember Gordon Brown and his "just a bigoted old lady" quip?

They're fucking not racist. Brexit was complex, but "taking back control" from Europe was the least of the problems. The working classes know they're fucked, that they're continuing to be fucked over, and that Labour, far from having their back, are the biggest culprits in fucking them over. That's why they voted for Brexit - they wanted a change. They wanted to kick someone because people aren't listening to them.

We keep fucking them over, then telling them they're all wrong, that they're racist. Now we're saying "anything but Farage". But he's the only cunt saying what they want to hear - the truth that migration has done pretty much fucking dick for them.

That's Alistair Campbell. That's this podcast. That's the narrative of the left.

It's why the Dem's lost power and Trump is ruling. Because the Dems don't give a fuck about the plight of the working classes. They still don't get it. And the left in this country are up in arms because JD Vance is holidaying in the Cotswolds, that Farage is going to be close in the next election. And they won't look at themselves and go "maybe it's us?"

 

[Gwadien]

I can

I think Alistair Campbell's an asshat, and he's shown it again and again. But that's not why I'm not arsed. It's just they represent no change whatsoever. They have no answers, they are saying nothing new - and that's clearly not what people want.

Lets engage on the most contentious of your topics there (ignoring Israel. They were fucking idiots if they had any sympathy in the first place - it was a matter of time if you hold an entire population in an open prison and have openly fucked them over for years):

People are sick of having the "positives of migration" highlighted to them. It's been highlighted to them for decades, and especially highlighted to them when Blair's Labour Government massively opened the floodgates.

When I say floodgates, I mean floodgates. Swamped. Inundated. A fucking shitload of legal migration. We all know this happened. Is still happening. But if migration is so fucking amazing at fixing all our economic problems, why are our economic problems not fixed? It's not doing what the Alistair Campbells of this world - one of the people in government when said floodgates opened - say it's doing.

It's not migrant's fault - the UK economy (GDP) has benefiited from migration, the migrants have obviously won because they're better off economically, but it's absolutely borne out as true that working class Britons have been shafted economically because the government's policies haven't distributed the gains from migration to this cohort. That ultimately, the working classes would have been better off without the massive influx of migrants since the Blair Labour government detonated our doors.

For the working class people in the UK the migration, started by Blair (and still increasing), has resulted in -

• Wage Suppression: In sectors like construction, logistics, hospitality, lower-skilled jobs - low wage migrants have destroyed the bargaining power of native workers.
• Job Insecurity: Migrants benefit even when the contracts they accept are precarious - they're still better off. But natives have had the rug pulled out from underneath them. In the same way that globalisation means that middle class workers see their jobs offshored, working class folk have to suck a dick and like it.
• Housing & Services strain - we may have cheaper migrant workers, but we've not kept up with infrastructure. Hospitals, dentists, it's a fucking shitshow.

Policy failures may be to blame. But then, it was always a lie that migration was there to help anything other than GDP.

And the left, the rabid idiot left, are still telling people that they're better than them, that if people want to stop migration that they're probably racist. Remember Gordon Brown and his "just a bigoted old lady" quip?

They're fucking not racist. Brexit was complex, but "taking back control" from Europe was the least of the problems. The working classes know they're fucked, that they're continuing to be fucked over, and that Labour, far from having their back, are the biggest culprits in fucking them over. That's why they voted for Brexit - they wanted a change. They wanted to kick someone because people aren't listening to them.

We keep fucking them over, then telling them they're all wrong, that they're racist. Now we're saying "anything but Farage". But he's the only cunt saying what they want to hear - the truth that migration has done pretty much fucking dick for them.

That's Alistair Campbell. That's this podcast. That's the narrative of the left.

It's why the Dem's lost power and Trump is ruling. Because the Dems don't give a fuck about the plight of the working classes. They still don't get it. And the left in this country are up in arms because JD Vance is holidaying in the Cotswolds, that Farage is going to be close in the next election. And they won't look at themselves and go "maybe it's us?"

I mean lots of the other things you mentioned they talked about too and agree with you.

 

[Scouse]

I mean lots of the other things you mentioned they talked about too and agree with you.

Might be, but migration is THE pressing issue - not just in the UK, but across the West.

The left is screaming about the far right and radicalisation - but they won't admit that it looks like they are ideologically wrong and that migration isn't working out like they keep telling us it is. Legal migration has changed the face of the UK. White people in London are the minority. That isn't a problem because of the colour of these people, it's a problem because, rightly or wrongly, that has completely changed the culture.

In the leftists world of "cultural appropriation" this state-sponsored deliberate cultural abolishon is starkly hypocritical. But because the left hold the view that they're better than everyone else they steadfastly ignore the cries of what is turning out to be a sizeable majority. They call them racist, or xenophobic, or uneducated - and say that's why people are objecting.

But people are objecting because migration isn't working for them. In general, it's fucking the British over. It's fair game to say "stop this, enough is enough, Britain is full" - because from many viewpoints - viewpoints that are legitimate but the left rejects - it is.

Less than a third of people in the UK think that migration is "good or very good" for Britain. Less than a third. More than half think migration into the UK should be reduced. When faced with this the left always says "well, economically, we need this sort of person, so we'll make an exception here". But we don't need this sort of person. They're just cheap and easy, but they come with all the problems that people clearly hate - the problems I've outlined above.

If democracy was working we'd STOP legal migration. The only people we really want to attract to the UK are the very clever, the people who do top-level science - because they're incredibly scarce and the more of them the better for all of us. We can train UK people for the rest - that's what they're crying out for.

They'll grumble when they have to do fruit pickers jobs, but they'll have jobs.


What do you think @Gwadien? I personally don't care. I'm alright, and I love that the indian in Llanrwst is multi award-winning. And AI is going to utterly fuck everyone over anyway, before we all die of cancer because of the microplastics. But if I was to take a position on immigration today, then that might now be my (very) loosely-held starting point (which is wildly different from what it has been) - and I'd need someone like @DaGaffer to tell me what I'm missing out on to pump the numbers up from zero. It's what the citizens of the United Kingdom really want. (For what that's worth).

 

[Gwadien]

What do I think?

I think the reason why we're in the shit and we can't progress is because of the migration debate, because it's largely impossible to solve, very much pushed by the right-wing media as distraction policies and gives us the illusion that once we fix that everything will be brilliant.

Bit like when we did Brexit then immediately imported loads of Hungarians to work on farms because the people outside hotels don't want to do it

Yes I believe we should do more about illegal migration, but like we've had this conversation a billion times before, the only way we're going to fix it is by either abandoning human rights or we send shit loads of money to countries that seem to have a problem with people trying to get the fuck out.

I find a deep sense of irony that you've criticised the 'left' for being patronising and saying migration isn't an issue, yet you're saying nah i'm alright, you can all go work in awful jobs, I'm not though!

 

[Scouse]

What do I think?

I think the reason why we're in the shit and we can't progress is because of the migration debate, because it's largely impossible to solve

You're still missing the entire point @Gwadien old bean.

Illegal migration is just a rounding error. Legal migration is the problem - and that's eminently solveable.

However, all the parties - Tories / Lib Dems / Labour / Greens - they're all pro-immigration, for a variety of reasons. The Tories because it allows their mates to run business cheaply, and increasingly ideological reasons the more right you go in that list.

None of them give a single shit about the fact that legal migration is fucking over large swathes of the country - and that's why we're not moving on. It's nice for the GDP, but it's a problem for everything else - jobs, wages, housing, infrastructure. They're all massively affected by legal immigration. And this is a solveable problem.

Illegal migration isn't solveable - that's just the dog whistle. And the amount of people coming over in boats doesn't make a blind bit of difference to the country. They're just the "undesirables" that are easy to focus on - and used to distract the public from the real issue. And, for me, we should be wrapping blankets around the illegal migrants because they're generally fleeing something.

So, to be very clear:

1) We should help the people in the boats.
2) We should stop legal avenues of migration because we've got enough people and the volumes aren't helping us.

I find a deep sense of irony that you've criticised the 'left' for being patronising and saying migration isn't an issue, yet you're saying nah i'm alright, you can all go work in awful jobs, I'm not though!

I find a deep sense of irony that you're happy for foreigners to work in "awful jobs", but you won't make the British.

It's our country, if we want to live here, it's our own toilets to clean, it's our own rubbish to pick up, it's our own food to produce.

The reason I don't really care about migration is because, as I've said, there are much much bigger problems - existential problems - that we should be focussing on. But we're not.



I probably shouldn't respond to your last barb, but it's something you keep on levelling at me so I will, this once: I don't need to do the shitty jobs because I studied, worked hard, worked consistently and invested personally in my own education (and still do). I get that a lot of people are jealous of people like me because they see where I am, but they don't see the utter shit that I've dragged myself out of with no help from anyone . No father. Abusive alcoholic mother. Drug abusing utterly mental brother and a wider family of working-class racists. I've not benefitted from any inheritance, like you will. I have to earn my retirement. I dragged myself out of that pit because I was lucky enough to be born clever, and I chose to associate with nice, kind clever people. If that really fucks you off, then there's nothing I can do about it. But if you think that should mean I should ditch what I've got and go fruit-picking and voluntarily "be poor" - then no thanks. I've been that, it fucking sucks balls. So I fixed it.

But in terms of fruit picking - why not wait until I retire, because farming is exactly what I'll be doing.

 

[Gwadien]

yeah ceebs to read all that for continued circles.

We get it, you've moved from the city to the countryside

 

[Scouse]

yeah ceebs to read all that for continued circles.

You always do that when you're cornered. The TLDR is:

Legal migration is the problem.

 

[Scouse]

We get it, you've moved from the city to the countryside

I really did:

Spoiler

 

[DaGaffer]

You always do that when you're cornered. The TLDR is:

Legal migration is the problem.

Hot take: EU Migration was fine.

Everything you claim about wage suppression etc. isn't actually borne out by the data, and the main problem with EU migration is that the British "working class" flat out refused to engage with employment opportunities in the rest of the Bloc and just bitched and moaned from the sidelines.

Post-Brexit migration is a fucking disaster, but that's in part because the Tories (lying hypocritical cunts that they are) knew they couldn't get off the immigration horse because demographics without migration would lead to collapse of large sectors of the economy (especially public services), so Johnson made it laughably easy for anyone to get in, in direct contradiction of the primary promise of Brexit. He sold Brexiteers a total shit-sandwich and they guzzled it down without even looking at what was in it.

The problem, as always in Britain, is no politician will tell the truth because the great British public are utterly delusional about Britain and it's role in the world and it's fundamental fucked-upness. NB. Also why Labour are fucked because they made ludicrous unkeepable promises not to tax anything, not to do anything, and it's boxed them in.

 

[Embattle]

Bitching and moaning about Migration isn't unique to the UK.

 

[Gwadien]

Bitching and moaning about Migration isn't unique to the UK.

You mean immigration (bad word), people don't really give a shit about emigration (good word).

I'll let y'all fill the gaps of what kind of people are associated with the different words.

 

[DaGaffer]

Bitching and moaning about Migration isn't unique to the UK.

It certainly isn't, but the UK is the poster-child for bad decision making based on poor understanding of immigration.

 

[Scouse]

Hot take: EU Migration was fine.

I'd like you to define "fine".

I didn't have a problem with it personally, but a stack of polish and romanians put a load of builders around here under a lot of pressure (and yes, I like builders under pressure) - and now they've gone, because they've been made to feel not welcome, the builders are doing better again.

Everything you claim about wage suppression etc. isn't actually borne out by the data,

I'd like you to bring that data. There's plenty of data, official data, that shows that migration boosts labour supply and that the impact on native workers is uneven, and often negative in low-skilled sectors - which I've said above. On wages alone The Bank of England show a 2% drop in the pay of native workers for every 10% rise in the proportion of immigrants in that sector. The Home Office and UCL say similar.

And this is in a country which has long term ideological bent towards open immigration - we generally produce economic papers that support what we want to think.

But the big bit of what you said that says a lot (and is a very commonly held view) is this:

and the main problem with EU migration is that the British "working class" flat out refused to engage with employment opportunities in the rest of the Bloc

Leave home. Move to another country. Leave your family, friends, loved-ones behind. Take advantage of all these "wonderful opportunities" - even if you really don't want to. Because if you don't - we'll call you feckless, lazy, tell you that it's your fault that you're poor because you didn't want to get on your bike.

The working class in my family didn't not move to Europe when they could because they were lazy or feckless. They work fucking hard. They stayed because they love the people they grew up with. They tend to look after their parents and grandparents.

It's the university educated wankers like me who ditch the family and fuck off elsewhere.

They shouldn't have to move away to earn a decent living. They already live in one of the richest countries on the planet. Their wages have been fucked over by legions of cheap labour being brought in that benefitted business.

Post-Brexit migration is a fucking disaster, but that's in part because the Tories (lying hypocritical cunts that they are) knew they couldn't get off the immigration horse because demographics without migration would lead to collapse of large sectors of the economy (especially public services), so Johnson made it laughably easy for anyone to get in, in direct contradiction of the primary promise of Brexit. He sold Brexiteers a total shit-sandwich and they guzzled it down without even looking at what was in it.

I don't disagree, but open migration jump-started massively in 1997 under Blair.. Johnson did what you said, and the UK public guzzled it down, because we don't educate people to think critically in in that manner. We educate for a compliant, gullible population that will suck business' dick.
I made the quip about "uneducated" above - and in many ways this is true. But people know when their job goes to someone cheaper who'd just moved here (or if you've been made redundant and your job's been offshored to what is effectively chinese slave labour (which my company is doing en-mass right now - accellerating their decades long mode of operation)).

The problem, as always in Britain, is no politician will tell the truth because the great British public are utterly delusional about Britain and it's role in the world and it's fundamental fucked-upness. NB. Also why Labour are fucked because they made ludicrous unkeepable promises not to tax anything, not to do anything, and it's boxed them in.

Nah. Politicians in Britain won't tell the truth because they're hamstrung by a global economic system they have to pander to. Our politicians are just middle managers trying to keep a lid on the population's anger, whilst living under technocratic rule. If people felt what it was really like, they'd riot more.

Labour isn't doing anything economically because they never wanted to do anything economically. In fact, there's very little they can do.

What Labour is doing is this: their legislative programme, as passed up until now, and on the schedule, is likely to entrench a left-leaning beauracracy regardless of whoever gets voted in next.

Labour is rewiring the state, with new agencies, oversight bodies, and civil service mandates. These are structural changes that go further than Blair's "managerialism" - their reforms are more institutionally entrenching. It'll be difficult for any incumbent to reverse what they're doing - institutional inerta will be the order of the day.

Every time Labour get in, the UK becomes less pleasant