World economy

[Azurus]

At least take solace in the fact that the finace industry is dominated by ex-public school boy money grabbing twats, so a few losing there jobs isn't the end of the world.

 

[Bugz]

Isn't Lamp in the finance sector? :d

 

[tris-]

I just googled energy mix and took the best looking result on page one. Not satisfied?

not really.
the whole site is just a shoddy great mess!

 

[Gorbachioo]

http://earth2tech.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/brazilian-energy-mix.jpg


Good enough? Just google it yourself!

 

[Lamp]

Isn't Lamp in the finance sector? :d

Yep

 

[Azurus]

Isn't Lamp in the finance sector? :d

He doesn't count.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Al Jazeera English - Business - Markets rally on $85bn AIG rescue

How much longer can they keep doing this? Forever ofcourse. Its just paper money afterall!


1 billion dollar bill anyone?

 

[old.Tohtori]

Isn't Lamp in the finance sector? :d

Hey why listen to people who actually work/know about these things when you can listen to Gorb run around like a headless chicken screaming "...."

 

[Gorbachioo]

Hey why listen to people who actually work/know about these things when you can listen to Gorb run around like a headless chicken screaming "...."

As far as i know lamp hasnt denied anything i have said so far.


But yes, i would actually like to hear lamps opinion. Would be nice to hear an opinion based on personal experience.

 

[tierk]

Such logic. Demand has been going down fast. And probably a part of that 150 was speculation, but not much.:

I dont know if you noticed or not but anytime there where any stories in the news that involved Iran, Israel or USA and Iran the price of oil spiked? Now is that a problem with supply or demand or is it speculators fucking with the market?

Oil still is is 10 times as expensive as it was 8 years ago.

If you want to compare prices of oil to eight years ago and try to use this as some sort of factor then i think that you need to look at the price of oil over a longer period and understand that when you take into account inflation the price of oil for the oil producers has been in massive decline for years as the purchasing power of their income from selling the oil has drastically been reduced.

From 1958 to 1970 prices were stable at about $3.00 per barrel, but in real terms the price of crude oil declined from above $17 to below $14 per barrel. The decline in the price of crude when adjusted for inflation was amplified for the international producer in 1971 and 1972 by the weakness of the US dollar. From the foundation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries through 1972 member countries experienced steady decline in the purchasing power of a barrel of oil. Throughout the post war period exporting countries found increasing demand for their crude oil but a 40% decline in the purchasing power of a barrel of oil.

You seem to forget that. The only way we'll go below 70 is a major recession. Oversupply...

Why should it be be sold below $70 in the first place? It is the single most important substance in the world and the price of it should reflect this. It is the only way to effect change in the world in its usage /wastage. The cheaper it is the easier it is to justify just spunking it. Make countries /people pay through their noses for it and we might finally see some changes in the ways it is used and maybe we will see alternatives being finally sought as an energy source.

 

[Marc]

It is impossible to predict what is going to happen to the world economy. Anyone who says they can is lying. A lot of the stuff you read is just paper talk and these so called "business expert" are just there to write something contreversial to sell papers.

The global housing market needs to pick up. It was only a year ago you could get a mortage for like half a percent under base, which is what lead to all the problems. banks lending money too cheaply. Now, because of the banks fuck ups, you will struggle to get a mortagage for like 1 and a half percent OVER base. The housing market should go like this --------, but instead it has been going like this /\/\/\/\/, which will always cause major problems from a finance point of view.

With AIG now being government controled, and northern rock also, and the possibility of Abbey going under and being rescued by the government, are we heading for a period of nationalisation on a global level? Would this be such a bad thing as back in the day, before privatisation, none of the big companies made a profit, it was all pumped back into the economy, but now companies like the banks, Shell, utilities etc are all being gready, the profits are ending up in shareholders pockets, not back in the economy.

 

[Gorbachioo]

I dont know if you noticed or not but anytime there where any stories in the news that involved Iran, Israel or USA and Iran the price of oil spiked? Now is that a problem with supply or demand or is it speculators fucking with the market?

If you want to compare prices of oil to eight years ago and try to use this as some sort of factor then i think that you need to look at the price of oil over a longer period and understand that when you take into account inflation the price of oil for the oil producers has been in massive decline for years as the purchasing power of their income from selling the oil has drastically been reduced.

Why should it be be sold below $70 in the first place? It is the single most important substance in the world and the price of it should reflect this. It is the only way to effect change in the world in its usage /wastage. The cheaper it is the easier it is to justify just spunking it. Make countries /people pay through their noses for it and we might finally see some changes in the ways it is used and maybe we will see alternatives being finally sought as an energy source.

That was speculation ofcourse. But whats a whole different thing and you know it.

So its all inflation? Some of it is, but surely you realise that that cant be the full story?

I agree, it shouldnt be.


For marc: if our only problem was just this credit thing then i wouldnt be able to tell you what will happen. The truth is that even though the current financial troubles are more about dumb people than oil its the oil, or the lack of it, that will get us down eventually. Right now oil production is pretty stable which means that it'll start declining any year now. It looks like we'll be in a hell of a recession when the decline starts and the economy will not survive that.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Bush seeks $700 billion for bailout - Stocks & economy - MSNBC.com


Interesting. I wonder when the rest of us stop financing that mess.

 

[Huntingtons]

Wats wrong with being a villainous duo as long as we have an awesome costume im all for it!

can i be the sidekick?

im really good and making up catchphrases!

 

[tris-]

. Right now oil production is pretty stable which means that it'll start declining any year now.
...the economy will not survive that.

how do you know this?

 

[Gorbachioo]

how do you know this?

Okay. I dont. But its the most likely option. If you dont trust me then ask someone you think knows better.

 

[tris-]

i just think its better if things are not implied as fact when they arnt.

im a picky bastard. its a bit like scaremongering really.

 

[Huntingtons]

i demand godwins law!

 

[tris-]

your mother is a nazi

 

[Gorbachioo]

The thing about this 10 TRILLION dollar debt is that as soon as the lender countries realise that it wont be paid back the dollar WILL crash. Theres no dispute of that. Once we hit the decline of oil production it will be impossible for america to pay back that debt. And in that situation i would say that there are few countries willing to finance americas own mess.


Things will go wrong people.

 

[Zede]

Fill the fields of the world with Hemp.


Energy crisis solved.

Food shortages solved.

Co2 emissions solved.

Rainforests saved.

( their are more )

and to top it all off, we can all get absolutely twated.

 

[BobbyJewells]

The economic crisis doesn't help when we still owe america for arms since WWII, we're still in millions of pounds worth of debt (thankyou germany). Plus its only a matter of time before fuel runs out and real life become mad max, mel gibson in jet powered car 4TW.

 

[tierk]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7630513.stm

Would Mr. Peak Oil care to explain the record price rise in oil today? Did we mysteriously run out over night or did the speculators who have been banned from short selling stocks and shares the world over moved back to fucking with the oil markets????

 

[Gorbachioo]

BBC NEWS | Business | Record one-day jump in oil price

Would Mr. Peak Oil care to explain the record price rise in oil today? Did we mysteriously run out over night or did the speculators who have been banned from short selling stocks and shares the world over moved back to fucking with the oil markets????

This way of thinking has a name tierk. Its called induction. This rise in prices was speculation so therefore all rises in oil prices are speculation. This so called "buble" has burst a million times already but these speculators never seem to let it fall below 90 dollars/barrel (except for that 1 day when it went to like 89 or something). Use your brains for a change.

 

[tierk]

This way of thinking has a name tierk. Its called induction. This rise in prices was speculation so therefore all rises in oil prices are speculation......

I have never said that we are never ever going to run out of oil but rather that the current spike in oil has nothing to do with the oil drying up but rather a mixture of factors that are causing it to go up so much. Anyway regardless of this are you admitting that all your endless talk of peak oil on any oil related thread was /is totally wrong?

This so called "buble" has burst a million times already but these speculators never seem to let it fall below 90 dollars/barrel (except for that 1 day when it went to like 89 or something).....

Ok this definitely seems like a climb down on your part. Are you ready to admit that it is nothing to do with peak oil? And now that you have finally caught on to the speculators role in all this are you ready to admit that it could be a whole load of factors that have /are causing the current spike in oil prices?

1. Weak Dollar
2. Speculators
3. Concerns about shortage of supply*

* Not shortage in the sense you have been babbling on about for the last God knows how long but rather concerns about cuts in production in countries like Nigeria - due to a ongoing conflict in the oil producing regions of Nigeria between the state government and groups representing the indigenous people.

Use your brains for a change.

Ok Mr Peak Oil. :lol:

 

[Gorbachioo]

I have never said that we are never ever going to run out of oil but rather that the current spike in oil has nothing to do with the oil drying up but rather a mixture of factors that are causing it to go up so much. Anyway regardless of this are you admitting that all your endless talk of peak oil on any oil related thread was /is totally wrong?

Ok this definitely seems like a climb down on your part. Are you ready to admit that it is nothing to do with peak oil? And now that you have finally caught on to the speculators role in all this are you ready to admit that it could be a whole load of factors that have /are causing the current spike in oil prices?

1. Weak Dollar
2. Speculators
3. Concerns about shortage of supply*

* Not shortage in the sense you have been babbling on about for the last God knows how long but rather concerns about cuts in production in countries like Nigeria - due to a ongoing conflict in the oil producing regions of Nigeria between the state government and groups representing the indigenous people.

Ok Mr Peak Oil. :lol:

Lol. Why whould i do that? When did i even imply such a thing? I said exactly the opposite: the climb to 150 (from i dont know, say a 110? 100?) was speculation but then it fell to 90 because a) the buble burst b) demand dropped BUT ITS STILL 90 (much higher now but thats speculation again).

Still dont get it? the "no speculation price" is over 90 dollars per barrel when it used to be 10.

 

[Bugz]

Gorb I believe you rely too much on what you believe rather than what is the case.

Personally, if OPEC state that the price of $90-110 dollars per barrel obeys market fundamentals, when speculation and unrest has died down, then that is the case.

OPEC are a monopoly; they have excessive amounts of power in the oil industry and if they can see potential profits in the price being 3.5x what they were 5-6 years ago, then by golly they will go for it.

It's annoying to read some of what you say because you're not a pessimistic bastard, you're a pessimistic bastard with nothing to back yourself up.

Market fundamentals, at a guess, do not consider speculation. What I imagine the term 'market fundamentals' does assess is a) OPEC (and oil-rich countries) desire for profits, b) liquidity, c) supply and d) demand.

Secondly, OPEC and countries such as Saudi Arabia have been working to bring prices DOWN. Why would such knowledgeable sources re: the status of oil want to bring prices down if the oil supply was running out? Economically the two don't match.

I'm not going to throw myself into this topic because although you seem like an intelligent guy Gorb, I can't help but think you are somewhat out of your depth for this particular matter, and are relying too much on belief and expectation - economics does not work like that.

 

[Gorbachioo]

Gorb I believe you rely too much on what you believe rather than what is the case.

Personally, if OPEC state that the price of $90-110 dollars per barrel obeys market fundamentals, when speculation and unrest has died down, then that is the case.

OPEC are a monopoly; they have excessive amounts of power in the oil industry and if they can see potential profits in the price being 3.5x what they were 5-6 years ago, then by golly they will go for it.

It's annoying to read some of what you say because you're not a pessimistic bastard, you're a pessimistic bastard with nothing to back yourself up.

Market fundamentals, at a guess, do not consider speculation. What I imagine the term 'market fundamentals' does assess is a) OPEC (and oil-rich countries) desire for profits, b) liquidity, c) supply and d) demand.

Secondly, OPEC and countries such as Saudi Arabia have been working to bring prices DOWN. Why would such knowledgeable sources re: the status of oil want to bring prices down if the oil supply was running out? Economically the two don't match.

I'm not going to throw myself into this topic because although you seem like an intelligent guy Gorb, I can't help but think you are somewhat out of your depth for this particular matter, and are relying too much on belief and expectation - economics does not work like that.

How do you suggest i should back this up then? Kidnap the king of saudi arabia and beat it out of him? Their official version is that saudi arabia will supply the world for a hundred years.

Im sure there are lots of possible explanations for this but heres one: They know theres a massive recession coming and people tend to get pissed off when that happens --> they dont want to be the bad guys (jews of the 21st century? ;C)

Im sure you agree that there is alot more to oil trading than just economics.

 

[tierk]

....Still dont get it? the "no speculation price" is over 90 dollars per barrel when it used to be 10.

So what in your opinion caused the rise from say $35 to $90 then? My understanding of your thoughts on this matter are that it is all related to peak oil theories. Correct me if i am wrong in this assumption.

 

[Gorbachioo]

So what in your opinion caused the rise from say $35 to $90 then? My understanding of your thoughts on this matter are that it is all related to peak oil theories. Correct me if i am wrong in this assumption.

High demand and low supply. Im pretty sure i made this clear before..