Bad taste We're all dying of something, just not yet.

[Gumbo]

I posted the below in the Ed Milliband thread :-

Dying of anything has little appeal, but we're making people live so much longer in so many ways at some point things will start to give. This is completely for another thread really but there's been a jumble of thoughts in my head recently about the affordability of 'stuff' on a massive societal scale going forward. We can keep people alive for so long, and it costs so much in so many ways. What are we achieving, besides finding new ways to keep people alive, sat in parker knolls watching Bargain Hunt, desperately striving for one more birthday? There's an elephant in the room which my generation can probably not worry about, but the next probably should and it isn't global warming.

I'd be interested in Freddy's thoughts. How, in say 50 years time (I'll let some more industrious Freddy find actual figures) are such a small proportion of working people, going to keep such a massive proportion of ancient people/people too sick to work, but able to be kept existing just because we can, going.

I'll be one of the ancient people by then.

the advances we've made in the last 100 years are massive in so many areas, I found a figure that said the average life expectancy in 1908 was 50 years of age in the UK. It's 81 now. At the same time birth rates are falling.

As above this is an elephant in the room, plenty will say it's in bad taste to even talk about it, but if there's one place that I know of that can cope with some bad taste...

 

[Raven]

Taken from the other thread

Yep, from a purely logical standpoint, we can't carry everyone we just don't (currently) have the resources. Pensions are at breaking point, care for the elderly is at breaking point to the point that it is making it more difficult to care for young productive members of society.

When my Granddad passed away a few years ago he was ready to go, my Gran had died a few years previously and he had nothing left to do but sit around watching crap on TV and waiting for bedtime. I don't think he would have appreciated being kept alive just because we can.

Old people die, of all sorts of things. Young people die of all sorts of things. It is a simple fact of life.

 

[Tom]

People of working age now, fit and healthy, will likely still be fit and healthy well into their 70s and 80s. It's the wheezing out-of-breath sweaters you have to worry about, those people who won't commit to any forms of exercise or healthy eating. People who drink too much and who eat the wrong foods.

If you ask me, people usually die when they have nothing left to do - the industrious types keep on contributing right up to the point at which they die.

In answer to your question though, the pension age will have to increase.

 

[Raven]

Er not quite. My Granddad was industrious right up until the day he couldn't physically do it any more, nearly cutting his hand off on a band saw made him realise he just wasn't up to it any more. He was a mechanical engineer by trade and was always making something in his shed/garage. Shortly my Gran died he developed parkinson's and mild dementia.

My great Granddad who lived to 98 might also disagree about working until he keeled over, he was a builder from 13 to his late 60s which meant he was physically knackered and just sat in a chair all day for the last 20 years of his life, being kept going by drugs and hip replacements. Nothing at all to do with exercise or diet.

Both ate more healthily than most, both had the same huge vegetable gardens. Neither smoked and neither drank any more than a glass of sherry in the evening. Neither were fit and healthy when they died, both kept going at huge cost, both savings and government help.

 

[Gumbo]

Well yes, the pension age will have to increase is the logical idea. It was at 70 when introduced in 1908, but the average life expectancy was only 50. It was a reward for beating the odds by 20 years. What government is going to raise the pension age to 100? Or even to 90, or even only as far as 80? No turkey is going to vote for their own Christmas.

This is why there will be this massive problem ahead.

Absolutely agree on the fat wheezers, there's another problem there though in that we're getting so good at treating type 2 diabetes, cancers and heart disease that it's not a problem which solves itself anymore, it's just more expensive treating these people who have done it to themselves. I'll be called a fascist soon and this will be a thread which has reached Godwin level in record time, but it's troubling me to think what the future holds.

 

[Scouse]

Simple answer Gumbo: Rebalance the economy so 30% of the wealth doesn't lie with <1% of the population and hey presto! instant and free healthcare for all and plenty of money to support people who've generated that wealth for the priviledged few for their entire working lives.


Or should we just throw wage slaves on the scrapheap when they're no longer fee-earners for the rich?

 

[old.Tohtori]

we're getting so good at treating type 2 diabetes,

That's really just a byproduct of treating type 1.

 

[DaGaffer]

First of all, I very much doubt many of us will retire at all. We're coming to the end of a unique period in history where the end of your working life was mandated by the state, and I actually don't think that's an entirely bad thing. For every person who looks forward to their retirement, I have a sneaking suspicion there's another who dreads it.

The problem of course is that its going to take a generation or two to work the bugs out of this new way of living; there's kind of recognised working life curve at the moment that will have to change radically and its not going to happen quickly.

The biggest question of all though is can medicine give old people a healthy old age? And I don't mean "healthy for an old person" but healthy full stop?

Of course the singularity might happen in twenty years and we're all going to get uploaded. I'm not holding my breath.

 

[chipper]

population control is the answer its that simple i agree with OP 100% the way things are going we are reaching a tipping point there will come a time we dont have enough resources to maintain our vast population the next war will be fought over resources id put money on it, and it wont be gas and oil itll be something so basic like water or crops.
so we are left with very few options
strict population control 2 kids per couple when you've had em you get the snip/clamped this comes with its own share of problems like divorce and remarriage etc the upward curve will still continue up but at a MUCH reduced rate
colonize space the theorys are sound they just need funding if we want to keep expanding we must colonize space and learn to utilize its massive potential
logans run solution quite simply pick a cut off point and thats it ya done interesting concept but realistically never gonna happen.

people are living longer but the body cant cope with it medicine can keep you alive but it cant keep your body functioning effectively maybe thats a direction medicine needs to take.

 

[rynnor]

People of working age now, fit and healthy, will likely still be fit and healthy well into their 70s and 80s. It's the wheezing out-of-breath sweaters you have to worry about, those people who won't commit to any forms of exercise or healthy eating. People who drink too much and who eat the wrong foods.

Those who leave the party early are doing the rest a favour though - its the buggers who live to a hundred and spend the last 20 years of that in 24 hour care with dementia that the state can't afford.

We should encourage sloth, over eating, huge sugar consumption, drinking and smoking if we want the country not to go bust.

 

[rynnor]

population control is the answer its that simple i agree with OP 100% the way things are going we are reaching a tipping point there will come a time we dont have enough resources to maintain our vast population the next war will be fought over resources id put money on it, and it wont be gas and oil itll be something so basic like water or crops.
so we are left with very few options
strict population control 2 kids per couple

Absolutely the wrong answer - the problem is not too many kids - quite the reverse - if not for immigration our birth rate would be tanking.

We have too many old people - the state finances are crippled by the burden of the old and it will only get worse. This impacts nationally and at the local level - the Barnet graph of doom shows that eventually all the council tax will go on old peoples services in the not too distant future.

Theres only a few answers that can actually work -

1. Import huge numbers of young people to prop up the tax system.

2. A helpful plague takes the old people away.

3. Massive cuts to pensions or the complete dissolution of the idea of retirement.

4. Off em at 80 - not gonna happen so a combo of 1 and 3 have to be the way.

 

[PLightstar]

I find it quite interesting to see, when our generation can retire as the date keeps being pushed back every few years. Its also going to be strange when we do, as technology has so much of a hold over our lives. Personally when/if I get to retire I know I won't be bored like my grandparents get every now and then. I would imagine I will still be gaming (if my eyesight hasn't gone)

The next 50/100 years of mankind should prove very interesting as it could see us moving together towards a brighter future with Stem Cell Research, Gene Therapy and Hi Technology being easily available. Though it could flip and the rich/poor divide would increase to a point where the rich can afford to 'cheat' death. Or we could get involved in a war that will reset the clock or kill us off for good.

 

[Chilly]

Absolutely agree on the fat wheezers, there's another problem there though in that we're getting so good at treating type 2 diabetes, cancers and heart disease that it's not a problem which solves itself anymore, it's just more expensive treating these people who have done it to themselves. I'll be called a fascist soon and this will be a thread which has reached Godwin level in record time, but it's troubling me to think what the future holds.

There's been a huge increase in the number of "fat wheezers" over the last couple of decades. I entirely agree that it's self inflicted, but you also have to look at the societal causes. It's a lot like crime: criminals are dicks, but they become dicks in a wider society. Being a fat wheezer myself, I can tell you that my parents (while extremely well educated and wealthy) taught me absolutely fuck and all about eating properly and looking after myself (and quite a lot more, frankly). Obviously, I can only blame myself for continuing to be a fat bastard and not reforming my ways, but it aint easy.

Anyway, it's one of a class of problems in society where parents fail and set their kids up (education and anti social behaviour are probably the most dangerous) for a bad time and we as a society find it extremely hard to deal with them. Those people then go on to continue set a bad example. There's not really a great deal we can do, except to change the conditions in which people grow up which is probably even harder than just forcing everyone to individually man up.

 

[Raven]

First of all, I very much doubt many of us will retire at all. We're coming to the end of a unique period in history where the end of your working life was mandated by the state, and I actually don't think that's an entirely bad thing. For every person who looks forward to their retirement, I have a sneaking suspicion there's another who dreads it.

The problem of course is that its going to take a generation or two to work the bugs out of this new way of living; there's kind of recognised working life curve at the moment that will have to change radically and its not going to happen quickly.

The biggest question of all though is can medicine give old people a healthy old age? And I don't mean "healthy for an old person" but healthy full stop?

Of course the singularity might happen in twenty years and we're all going to get uploaded. I'm not holding my breath.

I saw a documentary the other day where they were slicing the brain down to single micron sheets and taking pictures, they can pretty much see the entire physical brain. There are also studies into keeping the brain in stasis, much like a computer hard drive at the point of death so that at a later date it can be implanted into another body or even a machine and restarted.

There are also people looking into theories on consciousness existing inside a computer generated virtual reality.

 

[Embattle]

Retirement age needed to be raised a while ago, even more so in public sector organisations and they also needed to force people to input more in to personal pensions earlier so in essence the two factors needing continued adjustment which will solve the issue for now is increased input and raising the age of retirement. The current pensioners aren't all exactly poor, in fact quite a few of them have considerable wealth being able to take real advantage of the rising house prices etc but generally as usual and due to possibly costing more due to crap management to make it means tested the pensions are universal.

I also tend to think we are ignoring future developments in medicines that will improve the ability to work as you age, such as tackling arteritis, dementia related issues, etc. Although to me other issues are much more important to tackle in regards to health such as self induced health aliments, now perhaps my view is slightly skewed by the fact I've suffered Crohn's disease since I was 13 and rely on the NHS and thus hate to see people who are causing pressure on the NHS by over indulgence or ignorance.

 

[rynnor]

There's been a huge increase in the number of "fat wheezers" over the last couple of decades. I entirely agree that it's self inflicted, but you also have to look at the societal causes. It's a lot like crime: criminals are dicks, but they become dicks in a wider society. Being a fat wheezer myself, I can tell you that my parents (while extremely well educated and wealthy) taught me absolutely fuck and all about eating properly and looking after myself (and quite a lot more, frankly). Obviously, I can only blame myself for continuing to be a fat bastard and not reforming my ways, but it aint easy.

Part of it is the changed nature of work - people working long hours sat at desks is never going to produce healthy workers.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Don't worry about over-population, mother earth is trying its best to keep us in check with things like SARS etc. She'll get it right soon and a third of the population goes pop.

Pinch of salt needed for above

 

[rynnor]

I also tend to think we are ignoring future developments in medicines that will improve the ability to work as you age, such as tackling arteritis, dementia related issues, etc.

Actually medicine has done very poorly on end stage of life conditions - this can be seen in that even as life expectancy has increased the average time spent riddled with chronic diseases before you die has increased to something like 8 years in the UK.

I dont see any cures for Alzheimers tbh - we will fix all the mechanical issues and even cancers long before we get anything for alzheimers - stem cell stuff just gives you more cancers tbh.

Edit - I think the a key is going on my keyboard...

 

[Chilly]

Part of it is the changed nature of work - people working long hours sat at desks is never going to produce healthy workers.

Yeah, indeed. And the way the human race is going that's only going to get worse. More and more work is automated, especially the very heaviest work, and increasingly we all become office bound. I put on like 4 stone while I worked at Betfair, it's coming off now I work at home but it's a slow, difficult process. You have to hammer it into kids before they have the opportunity to ever become a fat bastard that it's completely life ruining. I can't tell you how SHIT it is. Everything is less fun, harder, slower (or faster) in the worst way.

 

[Embattle]

Actually medicine has done very poorly on end stage of life conditions - this can be seen in that even as life expectancy has increased the average time spent riddled with chronic diseases before you die has increased to something like 8 years in the UK.

I dont see any cures for Alzheimers tbh - we will fix all the mechanical issues and even cancers long before we get anything for alzheimers - stem cell stuff just gives you more cancers tbh.

Edit - I think the a key is going on my keyboard...

I would agree up until the start of this centaury, when we improved our capabilities to research such diseases but again such developments require many years and a large part of this issue and probably future issues already discussed is capitalism since as my doctor once said to me, drug companies are more interested in making Vigra types drugs than new antibiotics.

 

[Gumbo]

Simple answer Gumbo: Rebalance the economy so 30% of the wealth doesn't lie with <1% of the population and hey presto! instant and free healthcare for all and plenty of money to support people who've generated that wealth for the priviledged few for their entire working lives.


Or should we just throw wage slaves on the scrapheap when they're no longer fee-earners for the rich?

Wait, wait, wait. Aren't we talking about the exact opposite of this in the not very distant future. There will be far too few working to support the overwhelming many, just cos we can.

I think you've knee-jerked into the wrong thread Scouse

 

[Scouse]

Wait, wait, wait. Aren't we talking about the exact opposite of this in the not very distant future. There will be far too few working to support the overwhelming many, just cos we can.

No. We're not. Government estimates of retirement-age population (over 65's) in 2030 runs about 23%.

Quick MS paint gives visualisation:


Average maximum lifespan is in the high 70-80 range. That means half the people are dead by 80. Even if it was in the 80-90 range that would still not be an amazing percentage of someone's life that they are retired for.

This is a non-issue tbfh. We can easily provide for people's health and retirement welfare.

The problem is that we can't support both them and enable the super-rich at the same time. And the super-rich won't back down (and have all the money and power) so we're making people work longer, despite standards of living dropping all over (apart from for the super rich's - who's monetary value has soared since the 80's and especially since the financial crashes).

Simple solution to that isn't there?

 

[Chilly]

De-restrict the markets and let the strong win? Lets rock.

 

[Scouse]

let the strong win

If you define the strong as those with financial power then yes.

Incredibly stupid definition of strong when it comes to the human race and suitability of survival of a species, however. Utterly retarded.

 

[Punishment]

Androids is the answer and robots with big boobies doing all the work

 

[Job]

If we hadnt constantly fucked things up...we should all be billionaires since the industrial revolution...in reality we are...your lifestyle on the dole is what millionaires could expect 200 years ago...we are destined to die out...our culture will fade as we grow old and dont have kids to pass it on to..immigrants will take over and make this land theirs...then it will happen to them

 

[Raven]

Er, not quite. I can't see me living the life of a Victorian millionaire any time soon, I am struggle to source the tigers you see.

 

[old.Tohtori]

If you define the strong as those with financial power then yes.

Incredibly stupid definition of strong when it comes to the human race and suitability of survival of a species, however. Utterly retarded.

Then again do the regular rules of darwinism apply to a tech species anymore, or do the rules change from survival of the fittest to survival of the wealthiest?

 

[Scouse]

Then again do the regular rules of darwinism apply to a tech species anymore, or do the rules change from survival of the fittest to survival of the wealthiest?

In terms of life expectancy and life advantage the scales are tipped in favour of the wealthy - and in times of famine, war and pestilence (an actual darwinian survival scenario) the scales are tipped that way too.

The problem there, however, is that wealth is no determiner of genetic superiority - so whilst a darwinian-type mechanism still operates it now works against the species, not for it.

 

[Raven]

Stupid people still get run over by buses, or stack it into the central reservation, or put their heads into industrial machines, or drink themselves to death or any number of things...so yes, Darwinism still lives