So, when is the "great MMORPG crash" gonna happen?

[baphomet]

The MMORPG market is gonna be swamped with new MMORPGs over the next couple of years.

I'm sure that all of these can't survive.

I wonder how long before these new/old games just die off due to not enough of a market base to support them.

Or do you think that MMORPGs will get so much advertising, it'll attract a LOT of newer players?

 

[Flimgoblin]

The Sims Online - already happened

 

[Sharma]

I think they gonna start using some Mind control thinge

 

[baphomet]

Originally posted by Flimgoblin
The Sims Online - already happened

In what sense?
did sims online fail or did it attract a lot of NEW MMORPG players?

 

[katt!]

earth & beyond is is going bye bye too i think

 

[Flimgoblin]

Originally posted by baphomet
In what sense?
did sims online fail or did it attract a lot of NEW MMORPG players?

miserable flop

well it's got 90k subscribers but it's a lot lot less than they expected...

the game designers put it down to the game being shite

(Sims is all about having little people you control...
The sims online is a 3d chat room)

 

[baphomet]

So some of them are already starting to die.
Well, It may sound selfish, but good.

I really like DAOC, and it would take quite a lot for me to move onto another MMORPG.

Why? Well, I'm still working on getting my Cleric to lvl 50 and enjoying it.
I'm in a guild which is nice and the Virtual social circle I have already ingame.

All in all, I'd be happy to sacrifice superior graphics for the game I have established myself in for over a year.

 

[katt!]

which is why you still see people playing uo, why you see people playing on the same mud 10+ years

 

[baphomet]

Originally posted by katt!
which is why you still see people playing uo, why you see people playing on the same mud 10+ years

Agreed, but if the population of players on DAOC started getting really low, people I knew just stopped playing etc, THAT might make me move on.

I guess I'm expressing a concern that the MMORPG players are gonna be spread really thin and the overall quality of gaming will be decreased.

But if something like that DOES happen, I suppose it will only be for a certain period of time, hell, I see threads around here with people stating they've come back to DAOC.

 

[old.yaruar]

Originally posted by katt!
earth & beyond is is going bye bye too i think

Heh, I got bored of that before the end of the beta.....

It's what has put me off trying out EvE as it sounds eerily familiar.....

 

[old.Tohtori]

I thought sims online is out somewhere around fall...you know..october...august?

They said they'll perfect it still so it's NOT 3d chat room.

 

[Sharma]

Best flop ever: Project Entropia, fell flat on its face about about 200 tried its beta

 

[Belsameth]

Originally posted by sharma
Best flop ever: Project Entropia, fell flat on its face about about 200 tried its beta

I got a mailing the other day that it was actually working quite well..

anyway..
I think the 'big mmog crash" can only be a good thing..
if more of the bad ones die out, the good ones get more audience....AND you don't accidently spend your cash on one of the awefull ones

 

[old.Gombur Glodson]

Survival of the fittest

 

[Sarum TheBlack]

Earth and Beyond has been something of a failure too I think (in the sense that, it didn't attract nearly the number of subs that they wanted, even after they threw free trials about).

 

[katt!]

this is a bit misleading as it only inclused US (i think, at least it doesnt include asia).

 

[baphomet]

That's an interesting chart.
If it does include Asia and Europe then EQ is a LOT more popular than DAOC.

 

[Belsameth]

even if it doesn't EQ still is.
damn me if I understand tho

 

[baphomet]

Originally posted by Belsameth
damn me if I understand tho

Well, before I played DAOC, the only MMORPG I had heard of was EQ.
The only reason I played DAOC was because a friend of mine played it and recommended it to me.

It comes down to advertising, which EQ gets a lot of.

 

[old.Trine Aquavit]

I find it peculiar that people think of the MMOG market as a fixed market that's pretty much saturated. I find this pretty bizarre as I reckon it's a growing market with a heck of a lot of potential growth. It's also a market which both shows pretty remarkable customer retention (the only things that touch it for 'sticking power' are popular TV series/soap operas). It also has a direct income stream...

1) Growing market with huge growth potential

Consider South Korea, the only place where MMOGs have hit anything like a mass market - 2 million Koreans playing Lineage. Translate that coverage to the rest of the western world and you've got a market of 10-20 million plus.

2) Excellent customer retention

There are many, many people (including myself) who, since playing MMOGs, no longer play anything single player games. We all know about gaming addictions and EQ is always sited. A successful MMOG product will have excellent customer retention 'built in'.

3) Direct income stream

A nice, healthy subscription payment from those playing, plus the initial box purchase. Not only that, but the server-side control means that none of the revenue is lost through piracy - a huge issue for PC games. This kind of revenue stream is pretty untouchable in the games industry.


If any of you know anything about business you will look at the three points above and reach for your wallet. This is the sort of stuff that business analysts love, and the opportunity to dominate a market like this in its formative stages is something that will drive share prices up and up. Pretty much every single game publisher has recognised this, and they all have at least one major MMOG in development.

Think of pretty much any piece of Sci Fi fiction which refers to gaming: they all have one thing in common - multiplayer, virtual environments. From Westworld to Red Dwarf to Star Trek's Holodeck you have people playing (and presumably paying) in a multi-player virtual world. Pretty much what we MMOGers do today.

There will be turkey's, no doubt. For every Star Wars there's a Black Hole. For every Eastenders there's an Eldorado. For every Doom there's a Daikatana. And for every Everquest, there's a Sims Online. That won't, ultimately, effect the value of the market.

This summer will see the biggest thing ever to happen to MMOGs: SWG. This is the game that could, if executed well, start to bring MMOGs to the mainstream. With the sort of marketing push that Sony/Lucasarts can muster backed up by a quality game that gets plaudits from the gaming press we could see the MMOG market grow by tenfold over this summer, if not more.

A tenfold increase in the market is enough to sustain many, many of the best MMOGs out there. I don't think we're on the verge of a MMOG crash, I think we're on the verge of a MMOG boom, if not a revolution.

 

[katt!]

Originally posted by old.Trine Aquavit
Consider South Korea, the only place where MMOGs have hit anything like a mass market - 2 million Koreans playing Lineage. Translate that coverage to the rest of the western world and you've got a market of 10-20 million plus.

they dont have 2mil playing lineage. since lineage licenses are dirt-cheap every internet cafe in korea has one for every cpu, it makes it look like a hell lot more than it is.

i do not doubt that lineage is the biggest mmorpg though.

 

[katt!]

Originally posted by old.Trine Aquavit
I find it peculiar that people think of the MMOG market as a fixed market that's pretty much saturated. I find this pretty bizarre as I reckon it's a growing market with a heck of a lot of potential growth.

which can be read on the chart above. you can see that a new mmorpgs being released clearly doesnt take away customers from existing ones.

 

[baphomet]

Originally posted by old.Trine Aquavit
I find it peculiar that people think of the MMOG market as a fixed market that's pretty much saturated. I find this pretty bizarre as I reckon it's a growing market with a heck of a lot of potential growth. It's also a market which both shows pretty remarkable customer retention (the only things that touch it for 'sticking power' are popular TV series/soap operas). It also has a direct income stream...

An interesting post and food for thought.
However, so many people I know just will not play MMORPGs because of the monthly subscription thing.
It really turns people off playing them.
So IMO, MMORPG will for the forseeable future only appeal to people who really like this genre.

When I said a friend of mine told me about MMORPGs and DAOC specifically, I was maybe one out of 10 RPG'ers he told who were willing to pay a monthly sobscription to play a game.

If this is the general view of the Gaming populace out there, there will always be a fairly limited customer base.

Since there are SO MANY new MMORPGs coming out now/soon, I feel some have to go.

 

[old.Trine Aquavit]

That's the situation now, but it can change. What it needs is incentive for people to try such games. Once they're in, playing 10 hours a week, developing their characters and getting as much entertainment from their gaming as from their satellite TV then they'll look at the subs and think "actually, that's not bad value for money".

What it needs is a push to get people over that hurdle, which is why SWG is so important. It needs enough people to start talking about it and getting others interested enough to try. I'm pretty sure there's a critical mass which will make or break things.

Again, look at the 2 million Koreans playing Lineage. I'm pretty sure a large proportion of those didn't think they'd ever be willing to pay subs for a game.

 

[Belsameth]

that's very true...

personally I talked quite a few people into the monthly thing...
they didn't like it, and where quite happy to keep playing their SP games. but letting them have a spin for a few hours always won them over
there's just no experience quite like an mmog...
even tho I still enjoy the occational SP game

 

[baphomet]

Well why doac GOA/Mythic create a free demo CD which will last for a month or something?
Don't other MMORPGs do that?

 

[Sarum TheBlack]

You do get a free month when you buy the game (not that this fact is well publicised at all.. infact, DAoC itself has almost zero promotion in the UK), but afaik there isn't any "totally free" trial period about at the moment. Most "Free Trial"'s are created when the MMOG isn't doing well as hoped.. free trials are a way to bring more people in, in the hope they'll stay. GOA must be happy with their subs level. (which is great in Germany and France really, it's just the UK that suffers)

 

[old.Trine Aquavit]

Yep, they should. Anyone pick up the new Net.Gamer magazine this month? It had a free month of both UO:Third Dawn and Anarcy Online:Notum Wars on it.

If GOA had any PR/Marketing in the UK they'd make sure DAOC was on the next issue. But they haven't, and they won't.

 

[Arrows]

This is not the end its the beginning ! : )

survival of the fittest ..
we are about to be spoilt by choice unbelievably i think and the determining factor in all this is gonna be quality.

Mythic will fall i only hope, unless they finally learn there arrogant ways dont pay and that they need to listen to us ...

Companys offering a quality service and have an excellent game idea will dominate ...

someone should make a list of all the mmorpgs coming out cos there is absolutely loads....

im looking forward to ..
Planetside ... doesnt entirely count but =/ will get this regardless
Star Wars Galaxies ... So far beta testers have said its not all its promised to be but to me it will be an acceptable change form daoc and worth trying as my next mmorpg
Matrix Online ... check out fileplanet for the movie from e3 game is set after the three films
World of Warcraft ... Gorgeous graphics, excellent company making it and with a sound plot

Dragon empires sounded interesting but so far it sounds a bit standard and boring imo ....

 

[baphomet]

Originally posted by Sarum TheBlack
You do get a free month when you buy the game

I know about the free month thing with a purchase of DAOC.
But pretty much all the MMORPGs do that.