Off-topic Mafia #9 Game Thread

[Olgaline]

Golena that makes no sence to me mate
Day two 8 +Lynch+nightkill Day three, 6+lynch+night kill Day 4 2v2 mafia win
(as stated by IceF equal numbers mean mafia win doc or no doc)
Day two 7+ Lynch+nightkill Day three 5+ lynch + nightkill day 4 2v1 mafia win

So all you'll achive with that is give the mafia a free shot at the doc/cop
provided we do not land a succsesfull mafia lynch we end at day 4 either way,
so I say I'd rather take a chance, what I'm trying to figure out is, did you get it wrong or! do you damn well know "calculated" what your doing ?


I'm actually willing to go along with this.
Vote: Morphius

 

[Ch3tan]

Care to elaborate? You can't deny voting on Morphius makes sense after the thing he pulled?

not really, you and him pulled the same thing, which was following me.
now I suspect golena, but I am dubious of u and kierrenia jumping on morphius

 

[Levin]

Golena, I think you put a little too much faith in the cop. In my experience from previous runs, it's almost impossible for the cop to convince people that he IS the cop. If the cop comes out later in the game and claims x is innocent and y is mafia, the best he can hope for is a 50/50 situation of either being believed or killed. The best strategy for the cop might be to simply stay undercover. If he knows someone is guilty, it's better he tries to convince people through other means.

What i'm saying is, doing no-votes just to give the cop more time is nice, but probably not as huge a deal as you'd hope for. I think it's better to keep on voting and squeeze as much information out of that as we can. If the cop is about to get lynched, he can claim his role and hope people believe him. That will give the townies a lot of info as well. And how is the risk of lynching the cop greater than 1/9 on day one? I guess I suck at maths, unless you mean it's because the mafia will never vote on eachother? I've seen them do, on many occations.

I'm not disregarding your theories, I just think that we're still better off voting off someone as usual and I've tried to explain here why.

 

[Golena]

Golena that makes no sence to me mate
Day two 8 +Lynch+nightkill Day three, 6+lynch+night kill Day 4 2v2 mafia win
(as stated by IceF equal numbers mean mafia win doc or no doc)
Day two 7+ Lynch+nightkill Day three 5+ lynch + nightkill day 4 2v1 mafia win

You missed out the possibility that we don't have to lynch on day 2 or on day 3 either which would take us to day 4?
The stats on it are getting too confusing for me to work out in my head however, and not lynching on 2 days doesn't seem like a good tactic to me, so after your argument i'm back to thinking that a no lynch probably doesn't make much sense.

 

[Levin]

not really, you and him pulled the same thing, which was following me.
now I suspect golena, but I am dubious of u and kierrenia jumping on morphius

We pulled the same thing as what? Unvoting? I didn't exactly follow you. Sure, I unvoted Golena but I also voted Morphius, which you didn't, even though you later seemed to agree that Morphius statement was odd. I changed my vote from Golena to Morphius after he did his thing, as I explained. If Morphius hadn't said what he said, I wouldn't have done anything at all, I'd have kept my vote on Golena as it was as good as any.

Sometimes things are just as simple as they seem. I saw what Morphius said and thought it was a very strange thing to say at that time so I voted for him. It had nothing to do with your unvote, except that it triggered the situation.

 

[Olgaline]

Having read up from pageone I'm going to go with changing my vote to Ch3tan:

It's a split between him and morph but atm a vote on Ch3tan just makes more sence.



Unvote: Morphius
Vote: Ch3tan

 

[Olgaline]

vote no lynch

You have so far tried to get levin and myself voted, you seem keen on murder golena.

Now, not everyone has posted yet, but I would say Golena and Levin are the mafia. The fact Levin has just defended Golena makes me think this is true.

Lets help that one along shall we?

unvote no lynch

vote golena

Just to be awkward, and hear from everyone.

unvote Golena

I have no problem killing off Golena, guilty or not. Players with flawed logic such as his are a danger if innocent as they will hide the real bad guys.

However, I feel very uncomfortable with 3 people who have not yet voted.

Nice post, but I still cannot get past your first posts. However we still have 3 non contributors, in the intrest of keeping things moving we could vote for one of them?

vote kirrenia

not really, you and him pulled the same thing, which was following me.
now I suspect golena, but I am dubious of u and kierrenia jumping on morphius

These are my main reasons btw

 

[Golena]

What i'm saying is, doing no-votes just to give the cop more time is nice, but probably not as huge a deal as you'd hope for.

Well a cop claim with 8 left would leave the mafia with either the choice of counter claiming or being voted off. Counter claiming means it's 1/2 if you get the mafia instead of 1/4, with the advantage that if you get it right you have a trusted cop.
I agree that if the cop comes out when you've got to get it right, then the counterclaim can nulify it, but a cop claim before that only gives the mafia one option, and the counterclaim is going to look risky straight off for that reason.

I guess I suck at maths, unless you mean it's because the mafia will never vote on eachother? I've seen them do, on many occations.

I think the difference between the mafia voting on each other and the mafia actually voting another member off on day 1 is different. 1 v 7 is a huge town advantage, especially since there's a good chance of a cop and doc still being alive. That's why I put it at greater than 1/9.

 

[Golena]

I think the difference between the mafia voting on each other and the mafia actually voting another member off on day 1 is different. 1 v 7 is a huge town advantage, especially since there's a good chance of a cop and doc still being alive. That's why I put it at greater than 1/9.

I also stated that the chances he'd have to expose himself would be greater than 1/9. Since i've already had 4 votes if I was the cop i'd of had to really say so at that point (had I been here) to avoid getting voted off. If 3 people get 4 votes at some point during day 1, then the chances of exposure start to rocket, unless you've got a good poker face.

 

[Golena]

I actually agree with Olgaline that Ch3tan looks sort of guilty to me.

I have no problem killing off Golena, guilty or not. Players with flawed logic such as his are a danger if innocent as they will hide the real bad guys.

This line is my main reasoning for voting for him tho. If he can give me a good reason why he voted no-lynch early on day 1, then i'll remove the vote.

From the reasoning that i've read from levin and Olgaline they have convinced me that a no-lynch on day 1 probably isn't the best idea, although I think there's flaws in both their arguments they arn't enough to make them invalid. Ch3tan gave no reasoning for his early no-lynch vote then was very quick to leap on people that looked like they might get lynched quickly.
A no-lynch before any votes are cast is certainly bad logic, and I simply can't see any reason for it. For that reason i'm going to use his argument but against him.

The only thing that's irking me is that he was the first to remove the vote on me. I've learnt that making yourself look innocent by doing that by no means makes you that way however.

Vote Ch3tan

 

[Olgaline]

well yes that last bit has me abit worried too that we might be lynching an innocent man, and why I initially went for Morph, if it want for the fact that levin had done just that in the previouse game and us discussing that that basicly prooved his innocence then well.....

but all in all reading back , atm a vote for Chetan just makes more sence than any other.

 

[kirennia]

I'm staying with my choice for now anyway but maybe a no lynch isn't such a bad idea afterall.

This whole no lynch issue might not be a bad idea to go with now that we know we have both a cop AND a doctor. If the doctor stays undercover and the cop comes out on day 3 with their findings, the doctor could protect them overnight. Okay so the mafia could chose to roleblock but at least it would guarantee at least 2 more innocent then if they don't come out at all.

If the mafia only kill innocents on days 1-3 and we killed nobody during either day 1 or 2, we'd be left with 7 people left, 2 of which are the mafia and 3 are proven innocent with 2 undecided making it a near guaranteed win from then on, even once the mafia know who the cop is. The risk is of course that the mafia could find the cop within those first two days (2/7 chance) but for a pretty clear victory after that, is it worth it?

I'd say that having part of the group pulling towards no lynch and part pulling another way is a bad way for us to get majority decisions on lynching. Maybe if people all say ... I dunno, can't say 'vote' to vote to all try towards a plan, maybe 'cop plan' and 'lynch plan' just in here so we can see what the majority want to do and put this idea to bed or continue with it...

 

[Golena]

Toht's gameplay still worries me slightly in this game.

I've still got a feeling that he was trying to encourage the doctor to protect himself, which would give the mafia a very slight advantage if they then followed up with a roleblock of their target.
His first post against me also pulled me up on contradictions that didn't really make sense as Levin pointed out and he didn't really counter it as well as i'd of expected.

He's also dropped completely under the radar this game after those initial posts.
I'll wait to see what his next move is before deciding if he's really a target, but he's certainly behaved suspiciously so far to me.

 

[kirennia]

Can't edit posts...

vote : unvote

Just until we get peoples opinions on this for now...

 

[Olgaline]

Toht's gameplay still worries me slightly in this game.

I've still got a feeling that he was trying to encourage the doctor to protect himself, which would give the mafia a very slight advantage if they then followed up with a roleblock of their target.
His first post against me also pulled me up on contradictions that didn't really make sense as Levin pointed out and he didn't really counter it as well as i'd of expected.

He's also dropped completely under the radar this game after those initial posts.
I'll wait to see what his next move is before deciding if he's really a target, but he's certainly behaved suspiciously so far to me.

As for Toht, You cant derive much from that tbh as thats just how he plays, and also why he tough to place either way. becuase his habbits are much the same or have been at least. And as for countering he doesnt really do that either or at least he doesnt respond as such he'll rather look at your reply and question "new points" rather than confirm or nessersarily publicly accept the explination: Thats a gaming style, agree with it or not, think it's smart or dont but thats it really in a nutshell. (imo)
and dont forget thats exactly waht he did in the last game "protect himself" so I see nothing suspeciouse there tbh

In all honestly you seem far more suspeciouse so far, but I'm not quite ready to hang you........ yet.

 

[Golena]

If the doctor stays undercover and the cop comes out on day 3 with their findings, the doctor could protect them overnight.

The cop coming out on day 3 makes no sense to me since at that point it's too easy to counter claim and you're left with a coin toss.
The cop if he's going to come out has to do so before your in a last chance situation, so a counter claim even if sucessful will still end up with them being hanged the next day.

 

[Olgaline]

Bah I hate the no edit rule :/
Me miss key stroke make language sound bad

anyway off to bed, sticking with my vote

 

[kirennia]

The cop coming out on day 3 makes no sense to me since at that point it's too easy to counter claim and you're left with a coin toss.
The cop if he's going to come out has to do so before your in a last chance situation, so a counter claim even if sucessful will still end up with them being hanged the next day.

That's why I said with no lynches on days 1 and 2. Hence there would be 2 mafia, 3 innocent and 2 undecided people left (or a mixed variation if they find a mafia person). If someone counter claims then it's a 50/50 on who to kill, the cop or the counter claimer and once that's done, another mafia person would be found giving us two more days to kill another.

Worst case scenario... without the cop being killed overnight on days 1 and 2 AND the cop being killed by the mob on day 3 daytime by a counter claimer.

day 1-9
day 2-8
day 3-7, 3 innocents found
day 4-5, 2 innocents found, 1 mafia found
day 5-3, 1 innocent found? Only one mafia person left...

I'm just saying this because the mafia seems to nearly always get the upper hand with hunch lynching in the early days.

 

[Golena]

It's a good argument for a no-lynch, cheers for making it.

The fact we've had votes and near lynches on the first day also gives us better information than we would of had just by voting no-lynch early.

The chances of killing an innocent today really are quite high, so giving the cop 2 days before coming clean at a point he can does make sense, since we start day 3 like we would start day 2 with a bad lynch, but with 2 cop investigations.

 

[Olgaline]

that is somewhat of a good argument, but on day 3 you'd only have 2 innocents found unless you count the cop himself

 

[kirennia]

that is somewhat of a good argument, but on day 3 you'd only have 2 innocents found unless you count the cop himself

You'd have to count the cop as we know there is one out there. The example of what would happen on each day includes a mafia member on day 3 counter claiming the cops role AND the mafia member being the one beleived. If we beleive the right person, it ends up even better.

Worst case there is we end up killing the cop but then we'll know the other person was lying anyway, hence we'd of uncovered a member of the mafia and then there's only one left.

 

[kirennia]

Can't edit so new post.

Half way through writting that I had a bad feeling I'd misread the mafia roles but this type of game doesn't have a godfather so the plan still works. Either way, if the cop finds a member of the mafia or innocents, it still works to our advantage. I just remember from previous towns how difficult it is to win when a cop can confirm a number of innocents and/or there is only one member of the mafia left. With this, so long as the cop lasts the first two days, we're made...

So there is some 5/7 chance of winning with that method...anyone know what our chances are if we go on hunches?

 

[Golena]

I'm going to write this out myself to try and convince myself of it.

Day 1 - No lynch (9).
Night 1 - Mafia kill (8).
Day 2 - No lynch (8) - 1 Innocent located
Night 2 - Mafia kill (7)
Day 3 - Cop claims cop - 2 innocent located

Mafia doesn't counter claim. - 3 innocent located, mafia 2 of 4.

Mafia does counter claim and we lynch cop - 2 innocent located, 1 of those likely to be killed the next night leaving..

1 known mafia, 1 innocent, 3 unknown.
Lynch mafia - Other innocent killed. 3 unknown.


Now all that takes into account the cop doesn't get killed, the doc doesn't make a save, and the person the cop investigates first night doesn't get killed the second night.

If the cop finds a member of the mafia and lives for the first 2 days, then is this any different to a counter claim scenario? I guess not.
The real advantage would be gained by the cop finding a mafia on night 1. Is that any more likely than us lynching on day 1 tho?

I think there's probably too many variables to say that 1 is definately better than the other at the moment. What is clear to me is that the more we argue and finger point with votes the more information we gain, so I see no reason to stop doing that.

 

[Golena]

Mod votecount please

I'm unsure where we are standing just at the moment.

 

[kirennia]

Now all that takes into account the cop doesn't get killed, the doc doesn't make a save, and the person the cop investigates first night doesn't get killed the second night.

If the cop finds a member of the mafia and lives for the first 2 days, then is this any different to a counter claim scenario? I guess not.
The real advantage would be gained by the cop finding a mafia on night 1. Is that any more likely than us lynching on day 1 tho?

Well if you look into the cop finding a mafia person in day one, at least if they did that it'd mean that person hadn't been killed, giving us an extra person in the following day. Should the doc save someone it's also a bonus.

I still think this is our best shot at winning even if it does mean there are potential pit falls. If the cop gets killed before telling us who they found to be innocent, it's pretty much game over but as it stands, the cops role is usually ended in a 50/50. At least this way, we'll be in a situation whereby the cop coming out, it's still a 50/50 if there is a counter claim but after that, we'll have nailed one mafia person and know 2 others to be innocent. Granted the mafia will probably kill them off within the next 2 days but then, they'd be killing innocents anyway and this way we have a better chance towards the end.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Well, i guess enough time has passed:

Few things first off:

Don't vote ch3tan or Morphius on such small reasons. Golena voting for such small reasons, when advocating for reasoning more....come on!

You're doing the "quick get him he's different!" thing again.

Now, why i think i should keep on Golena.

1: First thing is the upped i said, he8's hanging someone, even after the "let's push a bit" thing, for what? Honestly, look at the reasons, ti's flimsy at BEST. Voting order? Posting time? This is exactly what he uses to defend himself(as best defence really) and now votes as such?

2: Yes, what Morpheus said "I should trust you as i've not been mafia before" is supicious. But it would be honest too(like we trust anyone here).

3: Golena still is covering all the bases and throwing out wron data, for example:

"I've still got a feeling that he was trying to encourage the doctor to protect himself, which would give the mafia a very slight advantage if they then followed up with a roleblock of their target."

Which wasn't at all what i was saying, when i was saying that the roleblocker doubtfully attacks the same as they kill, unless they know for SURE he's a doc. Because blocking another while attacking another, most likely shows them (in case of a non death) that there's another suspect for being a doc.

People are forgetting that the mafia think like the town in the "suspect" scenario.(jesus starting to sound like dexter...)

"His first post against me also pulled me up on contradictions that didn't really make sense as Levin pointed out and he didn't really counter it as well as i'd of expected."

I explained that there was a wrong word there, otherwise the point is valid and stands when compared to the rest of your points.

"He's also dropped completely under the radar this game after those initial posts."

Cant' very well talk with myself, even if it is fun, and i got to sleep sometime in this hellhole.

Now then, more to the point of why Golena.

4: Simple really: "The cop coming out on day 3 makes no sense to me since at that point it's too easy to counter claim and you're left with a coin toss.
The cop if he's going to come out has to do so before your in a last chance situation, so a counter claim even if sucessful will still end up with them being hanged the next day."

"Come out come out whereever you are" anyone?

There is NO reason for the cop to come out before they have a mafia name or they are dead certain people will believe him when about to hang innocent. Even then, it's just giving the mafia the next nightkill. Tell someones innocent, they kill that person or the cop. Not to mention people rarely believe you as the cop.

What the cop role DOES give, is one vcote for the town that is not suspicion. As in, you can defend with conviction against hanging someone when you know they are innocent, or vice versa.

So with such "logic" in play, Golena advocating for an earluy outing of the cop is silly. Mafia could just roleblock and keep the cop around forever, while efficiently keeping the doc focused on protecting the cop, and killing of others because you "never know if this night they kill the cop", but can block him for good.

Think about it people.

Now, for the statistics that have been scewed to say the least:

(without doc saving)

Day one, 9 people: 2/9 chance to catch mafia, 1/9 chance to hang cop(wrong golena), 1/9 chance to hang doc. 7/9 to hang townie in general.

Day two(with no hang): 2/8 mafia, 1/8 cop, 1/8 doc, 6/8 townie.

Day two with hang: 2/7 mafia...well...check last game, it's the classic 5+2 then.

So with hang, the worst case scenario(without considering killing a cop etc, which is LESS then killing a mafia) is that we're in the 5+2 game where two wrong choices lose the game.

And Golena is "wrong" in another aspect, with a hang, we IMPROVE the cops chances to find a mafia. Form 1/9 to 1/8. Even as wsuch, do we want a 1/9 chance to kill a cop by reasoned hanging, while having a 2/9 chance to hang mafia?

Or use that 1/9 chance for the "night outing" which is lowered ALREADY by blocking and killing (1/9 chance on both), or take the chance of 2/9(better then cop), hang someone and in any case give the cop better chances of finding somenoe?


If we don't hang, we loose one and got nothing but more suspicions (and ONE person claiming to know innocent) as we would in 5+2 game.

If we do hang, we take our chance with the 2/9, hang someone, get the same thing of ONE person knowing stuff, but giving that legitimate person a chance and also give a chance of the doc saving...well...you get the point?

I think there's enough to read and think.

In summarisation:

Still think Golena is ebil, no reason against it except "Huh?" questions to my accusations. Which were answered later by the by, as Golena said himself, yet persists on asking and claiming i make no sense.

Don't think fl3a of Morphius should be hung on such flimsy reasoning, ESPECIALLY since Golena is advocating those hangings with the same reasons he wants you NOT to hang him.

No-lynch gets us nowhere.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Bah, replace fl3a with Morpheus up there. I get confused, early morning, brian not online yet fully(even with THAT post )

 

[Ch3tan]

God there is some shite being talked here.

Righto, Golena, I still do not understand your early reasoning. Talking game theory does not make you magically innocent.

No lynch is a great strategy early on as it ensures only one innocent dying on the first day/night cycle (or none with the docs help). We have the least chance of catching a mafia on the first day. Now the argument that it makes it easier in following days with less players is exactly what a bad guy would say.

Look what you have made me do. Discuss game theory. pah. I feel dirty.

Levin you are so guilty it is not funny. You are declaring morphious as guilty because of an action he did mere minutes before you? I unvoted Golena to give others a chance to speak as he was only one vote away from a lynch. You and Morphius first said you would both do the same, and then did. No difference in your actions.

Toht, I would urge you to vote Levin instead he looks more guilty than golena right now, but in the intrest of saving my own hide for now:

unvote kirrenia
vote Golena

 

[Ch3tan]

You changed your vote within 48 minutes of placing the original, you were the last to vote for him, what Levin says makes sense. Levin had 14 minutes on you.

Maybe I should have made a long winded post as seems to be the norm here. I was pointing out that morphius actions look odd, but no more so than yours for the sake of 14 minutes.

Not the same at all! You voted after me which changed the situation. One more and Golena would hang. YOU casted the fourth vote. Nobody voted after you, but still you say you considered taking off the vote you had just cast? It makes no sense, friend, and you know it.

Yes not the same, those 14 minutes make such a difference!

We pulled the same thing as what? Unvoting? I didn't exactly follow you. Sure, I unvoted Golena but I also voted Morphius, which you didn't, even though you later seemed to agree that Morphius statement was odd. I changed my vote from Golena to Morphius after he did his thing, as I explained. If Morphius hadn't said what he said, I wouldn't have done anything at all, I'd have kept my vote on Golena as it was as good as any.

Sometimes things are just as simple as they seem. I saw what Morphius said and thought it was a very strange thing to say at that time so I voted for him. It had nothing to do with your unvote, except that it triggered the situation.

I seemed to agree? Well I did not, I was attempting to point out that your actions were the same. You just had the luxury of posting before him.

 

[Iceforge]

Vote Count
Day 1

Golena - 3 - (Morphius, Old.Tohtori, Ch3tan)
Morphius - 1 - (Levin)
Ch3tan - 2 - (Olgaline, Golena)

No Lynch: 1 (Fl3a)
Not Voted: 2 (Rubric, Kirennia)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch