Off-topic mafia #11 Pie7+2

[Uara]

Hmmmmmmmm with the death of Rubric, it leaves us townies in a rather advantageous position. If we're lucky we could win this in one day and have our dear town safe from these mafioso After reading through these posts I think im going to go unvote for the moment. Mainly because after my initial gut feeling towards Levin his arguments have tended to make fair amount of sense etc and I've got nothing else that comes up that I could hold against him.

Tohtori:Well there was a desert town I visited where someone with a very similar name played a similar trick. claiming that people could kill him if they wanted to and he turned out to be guilty. But different town different situation

Levin: Like I said there's not much to go on for him hence the Unvote

Kirennia:The Lone no-lynch vote although I can see where he's coming from, if he were a mafia the fact he's not voting for anyone means he could get a kill and not really be suspected. Plus if he could have persuaded everyone for a no-lynch he and Rubric would have been safe.

ECA:Hard to get a basis on, due to posting style, but no real feelings of suspicion towards him.

Ch3tan: I agree with Tohtori, it does feel like he's going after something specific, possibly someone to investigate if he's the cop in this town.

Golena: I dunno something smells fishy about him! The fact that he's telling us not to put the fifth vote on Toht yet is a good way of feigning innocence if Toht is killed and is innocent, because he can then say he didnt want to force his death. PLus he's willing to sacrifice Tohtori, doesnt seem much community spirit.

Olgaline:I dunno, nothing seems to be too suspicious, but then I mgiht be missing something in the 100's of posts!

UNVOTE

 

[Ch3tan]

unvote toht

Please explain yourself Gol. Sounds like an attempt by yourself to draw the cop out.

Also screws toht royally, that devils trap Levin accused me of earlier.

 

[Golena]

The simple way I can explain myself is that with a cop and doc alive we've got pretty much a guaranteed win. Hanging the cop now would be stupid..

It's happened in the past (I believe with Levin) in a similar cirumstance that he came out as cop to save himself while someone else was posting the last vote on himself. The last game I got hung without being able to make a single post because of a "quick" vote.
I've pretty much argued in every game that from a townies point of view hanging someone before they have a the chance to make that last defence is rather stupid, especially in a position the mafia can't counterclaim.
If Toht WAS the cop then him coming out and saying it would put us in a better position than hanging him and finding it out from his death message. An alive but known cop is still more useful than a dead cop afterall. I also said say your going to put on the last vote, so he didn't have to come out as the cop or not until he was actually going to be hanged, so unless a fifth vote was coming he didn't need to disclose his identity.

Since he's not played the doc or cop card Toht's chances of being a mafia have also increased from 1/8 to 1/6 giving him a greater chance of being a mafia member than anyone else here, which is why i'm going to continue voting for him. Either that and he is the doc/cop and is playing a nice game to keep his identity secret, in which case hanging me now would make sense.

Either hes a special townie role and we don't hang a known innocent today or he's more likely to be a mafia member when I vote on him. It's win/win for me as a townie, which is why I liked the tactic. Unfortunately Toht has disclosed he's not the cop or the doc anyway, which means not hanging him today gives the mafia a greater chance of killing either the doc or the cop during the night, even if we miss them with our alternative lynch. From a statistical point of view there's only one person we can now hang (Toht), that doesn't mean it's the best option necessarily but it's the one i'm going to continue to go with.

 

[Golena]

I also said say your going to put on the last vote, so he didn't have to come out as the cop or not until he was actually going to be hanged, so unless a fifth vote was coming he didn't need to disclose his identity.

I realise reading my post where I put the 4th vote on Toht that I probably worded this bit badly. My fault I guess but I can't reword it now.

 

[Golena]

I guess also if I was mafia, why would I post something that could so obviously be twisted to making me look guilty.
It would of been fairly easy to drop the 4th vote on Toht and not say anything else. By posting what I did and putting my head above the parapet I should of been able to see either the vote being swung to me or a cop investigation on me before the game was over?

With the amount of time the mafia member is going to have to remain undetected, standing up and saying "look at me" when there was no reason to seems a bit foolish don't you think?
I'm quite happy for a cop to tail me tonight, it will only prove my innocence.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Solid arguments Golena, but one thing:

You only know there's not gonna be a fifth(mafia vote) vote on me if you know who's mafia. Otherwise, saying "don't vte on tohtori" is pointless as the mafia could just hang me right there.

And if anyone else voted, you'd have your "mafia" claim.

IF you're mafia that is.

 

[old.Tohtori]

If you had been innocent, saying "i'll vote on tohtori but i won't yet, before he has time to speak" would be the correct way.

 

[Olgaline]

I think we've all become so scared of getting it wrong, that we'r almost paralized, fact is eitherway we'r bound to get it wrong, and we'd be very lucky to hit home even on a 1 in 6.

So the only argument I see for hanging Toht would indeed be protecting the doc and cop. Wich tbh I hadnt seen, or i would indeed have placed the last vote. atm it makes sence so ....

for what it's worth,
Vote: Tohtori

 

[Olgaline]

On second thought,
my gutt o' meter is tingeling so I'll leave my vote for later,
we'll read up and make up my mind after work.

Unvote: Toht

 

[Golena]

You only know there's not gonna be a fifth(mafia vote) vote on me if you know who's mafia. Otherwise, saying "don't vte on tohtori" is pointless as the mafia could just hang me right there.

And if anyone else voted, you'd have your "mafia" claim.

That's true. If one of the people left had been mafia then they could just of voted you off, but that would be true of any 4th vote put on anyone today. Someone has to put a 4th vote on someone at some point unless we no lynch.

Your also correct that had someone put a 5th vote on you without giving you a chance to speak i'd of suspected that person of being mafia the next day. If nothing else because they would of acted in a way that I felt would of been detremental to the town. Surely that has the advantage of making it harder for the mafia member to come along and drop the 5th vote on you quickly tho since that would be suspicious behaviour, so protecting you slightly from that happening.

 

[ECA]

Well, can we move on with the proceedings? I feel at this juncture we're not going to get anyone killed because we have a lot of vaginas around, and we have such a huge edge now with numbers/etc, but a night turn will give us some interesting pieces of information.


vote no lynch

 

[Golena]

but a night turn will give us some interesting pieces of information.

vote no lynch

Interested in explaining why no lynch is a good idea at this point?

I know why it is and would therefore be happy to go along with it, but since you were the first to go with it i'm interested what your reasoning is..

Unvote Toht
Vote No Lynch

 

[ECA]

Interested in explaining why no lynch is a good idea at this point?

I know why it is and would therefore be happy to go along with it, but since you were the first to go with it i'm interested what your reasoning is..

Unvote Toht
Vote No Lynch

Two reasons, one I think the likely chance we actually lynch anyone today is very low, two I think now we only have one mafioso left the % chance of no lynch is a far better option to allow the cop to sniff around.

 

[Levin]

I really don't like the no lynch option no matter what. But if it's the only way to get things moving, fine. We do have a rather big advantage now anyway so this could be the time to experiment with this.

Vote: No lynch

 

[Olgaline]

I fail to see what we'll benifit from a no lynch no as opossed to earlier ?
in fact, with only one mafia the chance of a sucssesfull investigation has gone from
2 in 8 to a 1 in 6, the chance the mafia get a sucssesfull hit on cop or doc are still the same at 2 in 7. the chance of the doc actually protecting the right tartget are slightly better but still at 1 in 7 in stead of 1 in 8

I just dont see it.... :s

 

[Levin]

I don't really see it either Olga, but it seems the only way forward on this day. If you have a theory though, i'm all ears.

 

[old.Tohtori]

I don't want a no lynch 'cause A: we got a CHANCE to end it all on day one. and B: I'm quite likely for a nightkill just 'cause of the cop/doc thing.

 

[Rubric]

On a side note, why is Rubric even allowed to participate anymore? He has done this in nearly every game I can remember. And I imagine his mafia partner is not best impressed.

Oh and toht, take heart. Even if you are innocent, which lets face it, you have good odds of being, you have helped get more info than you would have.

Apologies for hijacking.

He is my epitah.

I have made my apologies to Ice in a PM a situation which required me to go to Devon for a week with next to no notice at all was responible. Apologies for spoiling the game if i could have let you know i would but i could not.

I have never been mod killed in a game of Mafia before. I had one spell where i could not get on because of a power supply issue. i think it was about 48 hours.

Game on and enjoy.

 

[ECA]

I fail to see what we'll benifit from a no lynch no as opossed to earlier ?
in fact, with only one mafia the chance of a sucssesfull investigation has gone from
2 in 8 to a 1 in 6, the chance the mafia get a sucssesfull hit on cop or doc are still the same at 2 in 7. the chance of the doc actually protecting the right tartget are slightly better but still at 1 in 7 in stead of 1 in 8

I just dont see it.... :s

Your maths is wrong and also doesnt value extra turn information/etc.

Also the doc can and imo should protect himself until the cop reveals if he doesnt hit after ~2-3 turns. ( knowing 3 innocents is great value, even if if does make the cop/doc easier to kill it ups our win % a ton. )

 

[Ch3tan]

vote no lynch

roll on the night, and the new day.

 

[Golena]

I fail to see what we'll benifit from a no lynch no as opossed to earlier ?

We currently have 2 chances to get a lynch wrong.
If we no lynch tonight we STILL have 2 chances to get it wrong.
Having an odd number of townies is better than hving an even number froma purely statistical standpoint, which is why I personally followed the no-lynch route. It does worry me the people voting for it without having worked this out however.

The game ends with a wrong lynch with 4 people left or with 3 people left.
It's actually better for the town to be down to 3 left at the end rather that 4 since you've got a better chance of hitting on that last night. Yes you can calculate in all the chances for a Doc save, or a Mafia hitting the cop, but it's almost a free investigation for the cop before we start, with better odds of getting lucky with a lynch from there on in.

I'm quite likely for a nightkill just 'cause of the cop/doc thing

Actually i'd say your about the least likely target for a night kill. The only reason to kill you would be because your the most likely person to be investigated by the cop, and so he would render the cops info that you were innocent (if you are) as meaningless.
Surely the mafia's best chance is to get lucky with a kill on the cop/doc, which you arn't?

The only other reason would be because he no longer thinks the town is likely to lynch you. Past experience has shown that those people who are considered likely lynch targets, which i'd personally say you still are are pretty much never killed off during the night. It's why I expect both you and myself to be very much alive in the morning.

 

[Golena]

in fact, with only one mafia the chance of a sucssesfull investigation has gone from
2 in 8 to a 1 in 6

A sucessful cop investigation isn't just an investigation that finds a mafia member. Finding innocents can be just as useful.

A no lynch today and the cop getting 2 innocent reads over the next 2 nights means 3 definate innocents (thats worst case with him investigating the doc or the doc being killed) and 5 people left. That's guarantted town victory with the cop failing to find the mafia member in a search.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Actually i'd say your about the least likely target for a night kill. The only reason to kill you would be because your the most likely person to be investigated by the cop, and so he would render the cops info that you were innocent (if you are) as meaningless.
Surely the mafia's best chance is to get lucky with a kill on the cop/doc, which you arn't?

The only other reason would be because he no longer thinks the town is likely to lynch you. Past experience has shown that those people who are considered likely lynch targets, which i'd personally say you still are are pretty much never killed off during the night. It's why I expect both you and myself to be very much alive in the morning.

Trying to get the doc to protect another one and the cop to insvestigate someone else?

Interesting tactic.

 

[Golena]

Trying to get the doc to protect another one and the cop to insvestigate someone else?

Interesting tactic.

Interesting that you viewed it as trying to get the cop to investigate someone else. The fact that I think your very much going to be here tommorow makes you a good target to investigate.
From a statistical standpoint the best thing to do would be to investigate someone else then lynch you tommorow ofc assuming that everyone has an equal chance of being here tommorow.

I think your more likely to be here tommorow which means investigating you actually gives better odds than if you were not a likely target.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Yeah, and if i am, the only person to "proove" me innocent is the cop, and then the cop gets slaughtered.

Works nice enough.

 

[ECA]

Can someone else go no lynch so we can stop being bored to death by toht and his merry dong.

 

[Golena]

Unvote

I think ECA needs more consideration. His desire to rush things along only benefits the mafia. I also wonder why he thinks the Doc should protect himself. I could argue both ways, unless he's planning to also roleblock his target tonight ofc.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Can someone else go no lynch so we can stop being bored to death by toht and his merry dong.

Ok, i'm gonna say this only once, stop being so insulting...it's not needed and it's getting really personal. Has been for a while.

 

[Ch3tan]

I agree with ECA. I thought we had 5 votes tbh, we are getting nowhere and will get nowhere else this phase.

Gol, we are going to get nothing no info, nowt, but if you really want to consider people then I think you are due more.

unvote nolynch

vote Golena only a mafia would try to delay a nolynch in a hope that a innocent is hung instead, especially with the odds the way they are.

 

[Uara]

I'm going to agree with Ch3tan, Golena I do think you warrant a closer look. As I said in a post earlier on something just doesnt seem right about you, the way you were trying to position yourself so that you would have an excuse if Toht was lynched. Then on top of it the way you were quite willing to hang him and see what happens from there. Mighty suspicious.
Vote Golena