Off-topic mafia #11 Pie7+2

[Ch3tan]

Oh and kirennia, while I agree with the no vote tactic, I think it is pointless when you feel you have found a mafia. I am really unimpressed with tohts tactics, and I see it as mafia behaviour. I would vote no lynch, but I believe I have a better option in toht. If it comes down to my vote needed to swing the no lynch then I may reconsider, but I am not letting toht of easy.

 

[ECA]

I'm not sure I see tohts tactics as mafia - he has done the same previously and not been mafia, but it IS hugely detrimental to the villages win chances if he isnt mafia and instead is just shit stirring for shits and giggles.

 

[Ch3tan]

I have said it before, wether in towns plagued by lychans, Sicilians or bandits, those that shit stir and twist facts to their own ends, those that lie when they are not guilty, they deserve to die.

 

[Levin]

My feeling is that there's a 50/50 chance Tohtori is mafia. Sure, I kind of always have that feeling but when he's gunning for me, i am more than willing to take my chances voting back at him.

Kirennia, while your logic is sound, i still wonder.. could we win this game based on cop info alone? If we don't quabble and rant, how do we get any information otherwise? If we just dismiss each day with another no lynch and let cops, docs and mafia do their thing each night.. at one point we'll be down a lot of people - maybe have someone claim cop and point out a couple innocents and maybe a mafia if we're lucky - but then what? What if someone counterclaims? We'd possible lose yet another day, and afterwards the remaining mafia member could easily hide among the rest since there is no info at all to go on based on arguments.

In short - i think we need the arguments, and we need to try and discern patterns in people's speeches and their voting. I don't think we can trust on the cop to do the job alone. Sure, we might get away with a no lynch on the first day today since a lot has already been said, but for future nights, and future games - it's not going to work if everyone knows that we're just going to do a no lynch anyway, so no need to say anything.

I hope that made any sense.. in a bit of a stress at work here.

 

[Uara]

In short - i think we need the arguments, and we need to try and discern patterns in people's speeches and their voting. I don't think we can trust on the cop to do the job alone. Sure, we might get away with a no lynch on the first day today since a lot has already been said, but for future nights, and future games - it's not going to work if everyone knows that we're just going to do a no lynch anyway, so no need to say anything.

i completely agree with you Levin. The only way to actually get anywhere in this game is to discuss or argue about peoples behaviours. Because essentially altho it might not prove anything in the first day. The following day we can use whats been gained from the first day to come to more sensible conclusions. Then if all we're going to do is to place a No-Lynch on the first day we wont have had the chance to have these discussions!

 

[old.Tohtori]

Stirring for sh*ts and giggles? Twisting facts? would you poeple please stop with that kind of "you're doing this and that!" claims.

I think Ch3tan and Levin are mafia because they seem to have a hidden tactic in their posting, voting and other behavior.

Sure, i may have missed a few things in the 100 first posts, like Uara being against Levin and such, but can you blame for that?

As i've said, it's easy to point&blame, but i'd rather have Ch3tan check his own posts and notice how he may be a bit overkilling in his "tactics and bullsh*t" claims.

 

[old.Tohtori]

And yes, that's quite enough of dirt slinging when Levin is atleast noticing and accepting that i may have just been posting by my own accord so:

Unvote: Levin
Vote: Ch3tan

Noone else probably will, but atleast it's in track of my honest suspicions.

 

[Ch3tan]

I did check my own posts, I found nothing that you claimed, hell I even quoted them. Something you declined to do. People can read toht, and they can go back a few pages and see your not quite factual conclusions.

 

[kirennia]

My feeling is that there's a 50/50 chance Tohtori is mafia. Sure, I kind of always have that feeling but when he's gunning for me, i am more than willing to take my chances voting back at him.

Kirennia, while your logic is sound, i still wonder.. could we win this game based on cop info alone? If we don't quabble and rant, how do we get any information otherwise? If we just dismiss each day with another no lynch and let cops, docs and mafia do their thing each night.. at one point we'll be down a lot of people - maybe have someone claim cop and point out a couple innocents and maybe a mafia if we're lucky - but then what?

At the end of day 2, worst case scenario is the cop has 2 innocents found and we have 7 people still in the game. He announces it and there, voila, that's 3 people innocent. Other townies would have no reason to counterclaim so if anyone does, it'd be a member of the mafia. Again, worst case scenario, we beleive the mafia member not the true cop and the cop is lynched...

We then have 6 people going into that night, knowing 100% that one mafia member is guilty. Okay so again, worst case scenario, the doc doesn't manage to protect one of those 2 people and they die.

We then have 5 people, 1 of which we know is a member of the mafia, one who is definitely innocent. We hang the mafia member and again, following worst case scenario, the mafia manage to kill the other innocent person.

At this point we're down to 3 people and can base our info on peoples previous comments and there is basically, mathematically a 33% chance of winning.


So, if we follow the cop being lynched first (50%), the doc not managing to protect the right person during the night (50%, afterall, the mafia have to go for these people otherwise they'll be found out in the end game), then the following night somehow the doc doesn't protect them...(what's this probability? 25%?). If ALL of these worst case scenarios happen, there is still a 50/50 chance of winning at the end (the people will know of their own innocence and have a 50/50 chance of convincing the other townie).

If just one of these worst case scenarios doesn't happen (0.5x0.5x0.25 = 1/16 chance of it actually happening, lol), I'm sure you can do the math, the townies are in some 90%+ chance to win.


To sum up, even if it doesn't work, we're still only as far down after two days as we would be by a single wrong lynch at any point in the game which basically, happens every game we've done. Even the worst case scenario isn't as bad as this random lynching.

 

[old.Tohtori]

I did check my own posts, I found nothing that you claimed, hell I even quoted them. Something you declined to do. People can read toht, and they can go back a few pages and see your not quite factual conclusions.

I didn't mean the things you claim i twisted, i mean the things you're claiming i do.

Takin things out of context, twisting my words, calling me a liar when it's just missed information. And. so. Forth.

 

[Olgaline]

not exactly kir:
worst case would be at the end of day 2 the mafia have found the Doc and the cop
and the town none the wiser. You also dont seem to account for the role blocker.

 

[ECA]

I didn't mean the things you claim i twisted, i mean the things you're claiming i do.

Takin things out of context, twisting my words, calling me a liar when it's just missed information. And. so. Forth.

This "you're doing exactly what you say I'm doing " crap is so annoying, and detrimental to the village regardless of your innocence or not.

 

[old.Tohtori]

This "you're doing exactly what you say I'm doing " crap is so annoying, and detrimental to the village regardless of your innocence or not.

It's true for f*cks sake...

Ch3tan blew the whole thing i said way out of proportion.

Why? Because i dared insinuate that he might be guilty.

But bravo to Ch3tan for turning it around.

You can honestly hang me now, like i said, atleast you'll know who to hunt for tomorrow.

 

[kirennia]

not exactly kir:
worst case would be at the end of day 2 the mafia have found the Doc and the cop
and the town none the wiser. You also dont seem to account for the role blocker.

Chance of the roleblocker finding the cop is the same as the doc defending the cop so in terms of %'s, they nullify each other.

As for the mafia finding the cop, as I said, even if they find him on the second night which would be worse then the first, it's the same as us doing one wrong vote in the entire game which has happened in every single game so far.

 

[Ch3tan]

Kir, I am with olgy, you can state all the stats you want, but if the mafia kill the cop on day one we really are fucked.

 

[Iceforge]

Vote Count:
Day 1

Old.Tohtori - 3 - (Levin, ECA, Ch3tan)
Levin - 1 - (Uara)
Ch3tan - 1 - (Old.Tohtori)
ECA - 1 - (Golena)

Not Voted: 1 (Olgaline)
No Lynch: 1 (Kirennia)

With 9 Alive... oh, wait... Rubric is having an heart attack! And as nobody knew CPR they was all unable to help him! Which seemed quite odd, as you would all swear there was supposed to be a Doctor in town...
Searching through Rubrics belongings, like the bunch of theiving gits you are, you find out that he is Rubric, The Mafia Goon!

Now, with 8 alive, taking 5 to Lynch, it looks bad for whoever his partner is!

 

[ECA]

Sweeeeeet

( Although it does kill tohts levin+ch3t theory and let him backtrack and try not to get hung. )

 

[old.Tohtori]

It does indeed, there's no backtracking, i was wrong about one atleast.

Though you jumping on that...well.

 

[old.Tohtori]

If i took my cynic hat out, i'd suggest looking at people who wanted and poked at rubric to talk or otherwise be "out of the picture".

Would be perfect cover.

But, if people want to hang me, i'll be glad to provide even the last vote. It won't help you win by one hanging, but it'll give you some indication from voting ways.

 

[Golena]

Well with one mafia member left and 7 townies including a doc and cop the odds really are on our side now.

Vote Old.Tohtori

His arguments just arn't hanging together at the moment and I can't find any obvious links between Rubric and anyone else at the moment that wouldn't just be speculation.

The most important tool we have at the moment in terms of ensuring a victory is info provided by the cop tho. Therefore i'd ask that no-one makes up the 5th vote until Toht has had the option to come out as the cop/doc if he is indeed it. Simply indicate that your going to put the last vote on him if he doesn't.

I trust Toht to be sensible enough to take the bullet if he is only a townie instead of making a false claim since we are in such a dominant position it would be a shame to ruin it by hanging the cop at this point because we want to be hasty.

 

[Ch3tan]

On a side note, why is Rubric even allowed to participate anymore? He has done this in nearly every game I can remember. And I imagine his mafia partner is not best impressed.

Oh and toht, take heart. Even if you are innocent, which lets face it, you have good odds of being, you have helped get more info than you would have.

 

[old.Tohtori]

His arguments just arn't hanging together at the moment and I can't find any obvious links between Rubric and anyone else at the moment that wouldn't just be speculation.

The most important tool we have at the moment in terms of ensuring a victory is info provided by the cop tho. Therefore i'd ask that no-one makes up the 5th vote until Toht has had the option to come out as the cop/doc if he is indeed it. Simply indicate that your going to put the last vote on him if he doesn't.

The thing is, i don't have arguments, and the last fell apart with Rubric being the mafia goon.

No, i'm nto a cop or doc so hang away, won't loose anyone valuable.

It's just a shame i get hanged for a honest misunderstanding and things getting blown out of proportion.

But as said, if it provides info that helps town, so be it.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Nice trick golena, if it is a trick

 

[Levin]

Lucky break for us, but as Ch3tan says.. it kind of spoils the game a bit. Interesting that even a mafia player would do this. I guess that blows holes in any future arguments that only townies would go inactive and I think i'm going to be more willing to vote off inactives in the future. Unless they get mod killed of course.

 

[old.Tohtori]

And by trick i mean:

I trust Toht to be sensible enough to take the bullet if he is only a townie instead of making a false claim

from a mafia perspective.

If i'm a townie, i won't claim, cause i know i'm no doc/cop.

If i am i'm doc/cop, and i say i am, they have a target for next night.

But...who knows.

just giving more info for days to come from me.

My suspicions are towards ch3tan more then levin, as only one can be. ECA is his usual self, probably no danger there. Golena, been suspicious and alst "trick" is a bit iffy.

But those are my ideas.

 

[old.Tohtori]

And as such, i'm going back to my original "real" vote:

Unvote: ch3tan
Vote: Golena

I think ch3tan is hunting for SOMETHING and i'm his best bet. Nothing wrong there really.

 

[Levin]

Hmm, you do have a point there Tohtori. Damn you for making me doubt my vote again.

Unvote

Golena, can you please say how you were thinking here? However sneaky he is, Tohtori has a point that if he's our doc he'll die either way now. If he's the cop, at least he can get protected though.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Levin like i said though, i'm not.

 

[Levin]

I know, but the point you made still stands i think.

 

[old.Tohtori]

I know, but the point you made still stands i think.

Aye, aye, hens my vote.