Off-topic mafia #11 Pie7+2

[Levin]

Instead he's gone ultra defensive which worries me since it appears that unlike you he's far more interested in looking innocent than actually digging up more information.

I'm meeting your arguments with my point of view. Mostly i'm arguing that you were wrong when you said you didn't try to start a bandwagon, since you in fact did. I also added that that's okay in my eyes though. Feel free to call that ultra defensive if you wish. Interesting also that you claim to know what i'm trying to do. I've gotten quite a lot of information as it happens, simply by being vocal and pushing a few people's buttons here and there.

I do agree though that it's mostly thanks to people who actually say things - while there are those who keep their mouths shut as much as they can, and just glide along with no danger of getting hung, as usual.

 

[Golena]

Mostly i'm arguing that you were wrong when you said you didn't try to start a bandwagon, since you in fact did.

Again i'd say you were wrong, but we could go on like this all day.
I wanted to find out what both your motives were for the argument which I think i've now done.

Kirrenia has brought up an interesting point that Olga has been very quiet recently. I'm sure it's just a temporary thing and he'll be back talking again soon however.

Can we all just ignore the annoying troll as well please. That includes members of the forum that arn't playing the game. Thanks. There's plenty of other threads you can have this crap in if you really need it.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Actually I didn't ignore it at all. You'll notice (if you look carefully) that I stopped really suspecting you in my last post, mainly because you did explain it. I wanted to see if Levin was going to come up with an explanation for his behaviour,

Ah, ok, i guess i should say sorry or something...if i didn't only do it if i did something knowingly wrong..hmm..

Err...

Nevermind?

 

[Olgaline]

Kirrenia has brought up an interesting point that Olga has been very quiet recently. I'm sure it's just a temporary thing and he'll be back talking again soon however.

you'd be very right, just got home tonight from a visit at the inlaws, so I'll be back and on track come tomorrow, and had Kir bothered to check he would easily have seen that hadnt been active since friday morning.

My vote is firmly planted on Kir, and I have no plans of changing it, unless I'm presented with a very good reason to do so. I Have a hunch and I'm sticking to it. Alot of what going on atm seems to be the usual day one "lets find an excuse" as frankly we all dont have much to go on, but never the less, only one person stands out to me, and thats Kirennia.

As most who bothered might have noticed, Kirennia only got active once Levin brought his inactivity to question, wich I at least have view as the only logical chance shot we have at the moment, wich to me has been further strengthened once i noticed that kir had indeed been active on the forum at the same time as beening inactive in the game. And ECA was very fast to Defend him, infact even atempt to switch focus onto me claiming 2 votes was a bandwagon aka "fotm word" ? wich kir since has been quick to try and capitailize on.

All I'm seeing is "inactive - questioned - try to switch focus - dont bother doing homework on accusations"

so that's my two cents, anyway and Why I'm sticking to my vote.

 

[Olgaline]

ulternativly i could see leaving Kirennia to the mercy of our Cop as good option.
as that ofc would be the outside posibility that Kirennia could be just that or the Doc
and quiet for that reason. ?

Wich in turn would place my focus on ECA.
In any case I'm going to bed,
I think I might be over speculating things atm.

vote stays for now,

 

[kirennia]

I feel no remorse in commenting that I do in fact take no talk from outside this town (thread) into question when I cast my vote; hence my reason for not knowing you've been away for any period of time.

Following your comment, I also have no objections for the towns officer, of which I can assure you I also am not, in questioning my role tonight. My vote remains and while you cannot be dishonoured for defending yourself, I can't help but feel you're doing the exact same as you're accusing me of in becoming active once threatened.

 

[Olgaline]

I can't help but feel you're doing the exact same as you're accusing me of in becoming active once threatened.

all right, then I'll humor you.
how so ?

I've clearly stated being compleatly absent for roughly 48 hours,
you however claim in your own words that:

While absent in speech, my ears have been working perfectly

there's a clear difference between us.

Where I've simply been absent, you've how ever activly chosen to stay quiet.
there's a world of difference, one being a simple absentee, the other a an active, and thus logically questionalbe tactic.

 

[Golena]

Also starting a bandwagon is not as suspicious as jumping on one.

Which is exactly what he's done. He's also still provided no real contribution to the arguments of the day and remained completely silent since the focus was taken away from him. If he survives till tommorow do we have anything to go on at all?

Vote stays.

 

[Uara]

Golena, I have to agree with you, one of the reasons I find Levin suspicious is his quite apparent defensiveness in his responses. Which im guessing is appropriate when someone accuses you of something, but he does take it a bit further.

Although I do find it hard to accuse someone on starting a bandwagon, all you can do is vote for who u feel is quilty, if other people then agree with u, then u get accused of bandwagoning. The only problem with that bein when we have no evidence to go on and then you have to go with ur gut and see other peoples responses.

I'm going to stick with my vote for Levin

 

[Olgaline]

Yes I have a few reasons, but I'm sure trollbags would jump on me if I mentioned what they were.

I am not jumping on a majority either, given that there were two people with two votes each.

So,
Basicly by your definition, Any marority vote is a bandwagon ? And who ever placed the first vote would then be subject to accusations of bandwagoning, no matter his reason or justification ?

This is truelly confusing to me.

A: you must vote for someone that either A hasnt had a vote placed on him yet, or B: Someone that ties another votee in votes. and if then others choose to agree with your vote`in case A you are then subject to bandwagon starting ? This means that all Lynches are basicly bandwagons ? In that case I have no quarrels with bandwagoning. as my definition is quite different to yours:

to me it's only a Bandwagon when you have 3-4 votes in quick sucsesion, where the reasons stated are questionable or at best vague, this to me is what characterizes and qualifies as a suspected Bandwagon.

 

[Golena]

unvote Rubric
vote Uara

Since Rubric is staying quiet then i'll switch to Uara since I think hopefully what happens now will provide more information for me than pursuing Rubric by myself.

Let the accusations of bandwaggoning begin, but remember that the best and most reliable information on day 1 will only come if someone is looking close to being hung. When everyone has no more than 2 votes then defences don't really need to be made, so i'd urge townies not to jump on the pile just because they want to get on with it.

I've not gone for Levin because I feel the votes on him so far are somewhat misplaced.

 

[ECA]

Been busy working, Olgaline I think you skipped over Uaras posts before quoting mine, I was replying to him not making the point myself.

 

[Olgaline]

Golena has a point about Rubric tho'
we havent heard or seen from him since the 28'th

ECA, Yes I realise that but shortly before that you where having at my throught for
pacing the second vote on kirennia who at that time was still completly inactive.
the two comments in sucsession made me raise an eyebrow.
however Secondly and more importantly, i think i just have grown tired of seeing "bandwagon" attached to each and every majority vote.

 

[Olgaline]

pacing = placing

 

[Uara]

hmmmmmm, I'm not quite sure where the accusations for me are coming from! I know I'm not the most vocal person, but it surely doesn't mean I should be left dangling, but just so you know Golena I'm not viewing it as Bandwagoning, everyone has their right for a vote and if you think i'm the most suspicious then fair play! If its with my vote for Levin, its just one of these things that are hard to explain. I just have a gut feeling with him and his responses to others questioning him just seemed to enhance that feeling I had towards him.

You do raise a point Golena with Rubric's un-natural silences, now he may come back and claim he was stuck with work but we would have to base that on faith. When he may well have been here all along watching us get at each others throat. But who knows!

 

[Levin]

Uara, I actually agree with everything you say. Everyone should just vote for whoever they feel is guilty. Not much I can do about you feeling I'm guilty on the first day, but i definately respect your right to vote on me.

About bandwagoning, in one respect it needs to be done to get someone hung. If we never bandwagoned nobody would ever be lynched, and only the mafia would gain on that. What one can look for is people's arguments and reasons for voting someone who already has a lot of votes. As long as people believe in what they vote for and can convince me that it's something one could believe in, they will look like townies to me.

I also agree that silent people are very difficult to handle. I'm going to pull my vote for now and see if Rubric comes back with some insights soon. Otherwise my vote goes to him as well.

Unvote

 

[Olgaline]

aye no reason as of yet to vote for someone who's actually inactive, not just
actively quiet.

but, *cough* I cant help but sence a case of dejvavu concerning rubric and inactivity

 

[Ch3tan]

Since page 3, about 3 of us have not posted at all. So what are we, actively quiet or just inactive. Can you tell the difference, are any of us guilty of anything or just busy.

Nothing has really come to light since the first votes against Levin/Toht/kirennia/uara.

Everyone seems to be focusing on them, but nothing of any value has come around. I can't see any reason to change my vote from Toht right now, but then I can see very little reason to vote for him or anyone else right now either.

 

[Golena]

Since page 3, about 3 of us have not posted at all. So what are we, actively quiet or just inactive. Can you tell the difference, are any of us guilty of anything or just busy.

Nothing has really come to light since the first votes against Levin/Toht/kirennia/uara.

The thing is if people don't post for 4 pages then nothing new will come to light. There's people pushing for information and those who seem quite happy to sit back and wait for it to arrive.
If your just sitting back waiting for it there's no chance of tripping you up into a mistake that will later on in the game show you up as a mafia member, so to me that instantly makes you more suspicious.

The more you say, even if it doesn't produce anything now, the more chance you have of linking yourself with someone that can be the crutial clue later on. Those that simply remain quiet give us nothing to go on if we don't get it right today. With the makeup of our town here we can afford a mistake or 2 as long as we gain information. Leaving the town members alive we have no information about gets us nowhere.

I'm going to:
unvote uara
for now tho. My vote got some action in Levin removing his which was all I was trying to get to happen. It's not much information, but more than I had yesterday.

vote rubric
4 days without a post is as Olga points out reminisant of past times, and his argument that quiet is more likely townie is exactly what gave him the victory last time. Trying to start a bandwagon on someone that voted against that style of play also seems suspicious to me. If he's a townie so be it, I hardly think from current contribution that missing him tommorow will be a great loss to the town either way.

 

[kirennia]

Despite my vote on Olgaline, I just remembered my calculations on a previous game that a no vote is the best way to go in terms of probability to win at the end.

If we no vote for two days, 7 of us remain and the cop (who has a 6/7*5/6 (71.4%) chance to survive) comes out with 2 findings, allowing us to either KNOW that two people are innocent, two are guilty or a bit of both (or if they find the roleblocker on day 1, announce it and the doc can continue to protect the cop while we continue no votes and win easily anyway). Either way, from that situation it's pretty much plain sailing as we then have a majority of peoples roles found out when it comes to the final days.

From experiences in previous villages, townies generally aren't the favoured side in the situation of random voting like this when we have no information on anyone at this stage. I know the cop could be killed on day 1 or 2 and we'd have a much harder time but seriously, the odds are well and truly with us like this. If we don't, you can pretty much reverse those odds...

So from this line of reasoning, I'm going to do as I did in the last town and go:

VOTE:NO LYNCH


Note I'm away tuesday and wednesday but might be able to post wednesday night hence my abscene for those days starting from now.

 

[Ch3tan]

Before the idiots jump in, kirennia is quite right. Not sure about his odds, I have no energy to check. But a no lynch vote can give just as much info and result in one less dead innocent than otherwise. Remember we have more chance of killing an innocent on day 1 than anyone else. And equal chance of killing the mafia as we do the doc/cop.

 

[Levin]

I believe Kirennia's odds for cop survival is almost right. They might be slightly higher actually, considering the doc might get lucky and protect him.

What i do wonder though, and always did about doing a No Vote, is what will it get us? With two no-votes on day 1 and 2, we will almost certainly be down 2 townies (unless doc gets lucky as said). But what are the chances the cop will detect a mafia?

According to the Pie7 setup they have a roleblocker too. So while there's a 71-75% ish percent chance the cop survives, there is the added risk that he won't be able to check two people out both those nights. And then there's the risk that he only finds innocent people (which would help too but not as much), the risk that a mafia will counterclaim cop role, etc.

I don't think i will ever be convinced that a no lynch is good.

 

[ECA]

No Lynch is crap, because it denies us information - the sole currency on which we can discover the mafia with except getting lucky.

 

[Levin]

Is it just me or have these games slowed down a lot lately? Is it because people are afraid to post, or is it because it's summer still.. or other reasons? Tohtori used to talk a lot more, that's for sure.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Is it just me or have these games slowed down a lot lately? Is it because people are afraid to post, or is it because it's summer still.. or other reasons? Tohtori used to talk a lot more, that's for sure.

I've been looking for a time to read it all as i'm bloody confused at the moment. But each time i have time, there's a page of stuff already more

Will contribute soon enough with an analysis.

 

[old.Tohtori]

Well from what i see, i've left with two choices:

I'm very suspicious of ch3tan with his angry comebacks and spins/counterspins.

BUT, i'm more concerned that Levin is so pasifistic about ch3tan and votes for Uara, who, in all reason, hasn't even been a bit towards Levins hanging.

So i have ch3tan, who's not voting for Levin even if he's suspecting him, and he's not suspecting me but keeps the vote.

Then i have Levin, who doesn't even care for ch3tans accusations and votes for someone completely different.

Might get killed first night for this, but i'll go with vote: levin and then go and check ch3tan, come tomorrow.

It's my best bet of "gut feel" at the moment.

 

[old.Tohtori]

that was

vote: Levin

got a bit buried there.))

 

[Golena]

the risk that a mafia will counterclaim cop role, etc.

I don't think i will ever be convinced that a no lynch is good.

The advantage of Kirrenia's plan is that the mafia can't counter claim a cop role as it basically gives a 50/50 chance of you getting it right, with a certain lynch the next night if your wrong.
The only time counter claiming can realisticly not get you hung as a mafia member is if we are in a do or die situation, meaning that a wrong vote ends the game.

Saying we don't get any information as well is slightly incorrect, since who the mafia choose to kill can often reveal just as much as who votes for who. The important thing about the strategy is that people feel there's a chance of them being voted off on either of the 2 days so they still need to defend themselves. It's why a strategy that requires 2 no votes I feel is slightly flawed. That and if the mafia do strike down the cop we really are no better off.

Revealing 2 innocents is almost as much use as knowing a member of the mafia however (3 if you include the cop making the claim). 7 people in the town and 3 known innocents, 4 if the doc doesn't get investigated and comes out gives pretty much a certain victory.

There's a whole load of if's and but's in there tho, which doesn't give me that nice comfy feeling that it's the right way to go. I'll stick with voting for Rubric for now I think.

 

[Iceforge]

Vote Count
Day 1

Levin - 3 - (Rubric, Uara, Old.Tohtori)
Kirennia - 1 - (Olgaline)
Uara - 1 - (ECA)
Old.Tohtori - 1 - (Ch3tan)
Rubric - 1 - (Golena)

Not Voted: 1 (Levin)
No Lynch: 1 (Kirennia)

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to lynch

 

[Ch3tan]

Well from what i see, i've left with two choices:

I'm very suspicious of ch3tan with his angry comebacks and spins/counterspins.

BUT, i'm more concerned that Levin is so pasifistic about ch3tan and votes for Uara, who, in all reason, hasn't even been a bit towards Levins hanging.

So i have ch3tan, who's not voting for Levin even if he's suspecting him, and he's not suspecting me but keeps the vote.

Then i have Levin, who doesn't even care for ch3tans accusations and votes for someone completely different.

Might get killed first night for this, but i'll go with vote: levin and then go and check ch3tan, come tomorrow.

It's my best bet of "gut feel" at the moment.

And speaking of spin....

Toht, please show me these "angry posts"

Also please explain how you missed me say this

I can't see any reason to change my vote from Toht right now, but then I can see very little reason to vote for him or anyone else right now either.

I did not say at any point that I do not find you suspicious, or that I am more supicous of Levin than you.

If we were playing a card game right now, I would be shouting "bullshit" at you.