Masterpieces - the numbers game

[Roalith]

I make a lot of hinges. As you can probably expect, out of boredom I notice when I get a masterpiece hinge, and even try to predict when the next one will come.

Now, during the course of the thousands of hinges I've made, I've noticed that there is a certain 'streaky' aspect to when the masterpieces appear. I'll craft 50 hinges, get a masterpiece, craft another 5-10, get another masterpiece.

So I thought, why not give it a try and try to turn this 'streakyness' to my advantage.

Got an order from Hendrick for masterpiece AF 102 chain leggings. Crafted 47 asterite hinges, and got a masterpiece hinge. Then started doing the leggings. 4 attempts in, I ran out of wire. I salvaged the legs, and made more arcanium wire. 6 sets of wire later, I got another masterpiece - although unfortunately this was masterpiece wire. Could have very easily been masterpiece legs, if I'd have had enough arcanium wire pre-made.

Second run on the attempt at masterpiece legs, followed the above guidelines. Made a masterpiece hinge after around 40 attempts, then made a batch 9 arcanium wire. Started crafting the legs... and got a masterpiece on the first try (11 attempts at an MP in total).

Crafting this way (trinkets/components until an MP, then combines until the following MP) DOES seem to lower the odds. However, it's exactly the same principle as picking consecutive numbers in the lottery - consecutive numbers do happen more often in random situations than people believe - but it's still random.

 

[Roalith]

Addendum: Belcar just tried this, with tailoring. Made bedrolls until he got an MP. Then made boots. Got an MP 10 tries later.

 

[Roalith]

Yet another addendum: Hendrick tried this doing arcanium poleaxe hafts and heads instead of hinges. Made a masterpiece arcanium poleaxe.

 

[froler-mid]

i think someone have been crafting too much.

 

[Roalith]

The only time I RvR is on Sauvage road on the way to Excal getting materials.

 

[Generic Poster]

Like... keep this info for the Albion Forums, only


Sounds good, I will have to try this with spell crafting...

 

[Gimly]

Originally posted by Roalith
The only time I RvR is on Sauvage road on the way to Excal getting materials.

Your not below lvl 45 so I cant see them attacking you that much..

 

[Fightersuntzu]

Good roalith, you can make me an MP breastplate easier then (yeh right......../mutter)

Well. Maybe ill get an MP partisan anyway, for about 10g less now, thanks roalith

 

[erl]

It's since long known that the random number generator in daoc is streaky, it shows in crits, fumbles, crafting, everything.

Although when I try to exploit it I always fail miserably

 

[Roalith]

I've had it produce MP armour 3 out of 5 attempts using this method. The other 2 times it produced MP wire because I didn't pre-make enough

 

[Gimly]

BUG ABUSE.. BUG ABUSE... INFORM TEH GOA!!1!

 

[Roalith]

I should plate the national lottery more

(Geddit? Plate?)

 

[Jupitus]

Originally posted by Roalith
I should plate the national lottery more

(Geddit? Plate?)

... another joke as bad as that and I will have to wield the Masterpiece Boot of Kicking (tm)

 

[old.Trine Aquavit]

I'd be highly surprised if DAOC's random number generator wasn't server-side and therefore used for all random number calcs by all players in a zone.

If the RNG was on the client it would be a bit too easy to hack it to always produce a successful outcome. Putting the RNG on the server would prevent this.

Crafting MP's may seem 'streaky' but that's the nature of randomness - if you started getting results uniformly then it wouldn't be very random, would it?

 

[Glema]

Also doesn't the human mind always try and look for patterns in things - even if there is no pattern it will try and make one up.

 

[old.Cero]

Well I had a MP spree one night in Bullemeer(aka Bledmeer).
I made 6 MP's and 4 99% in 2 hours in 24 tries total. This was very late at night or morning even...around 05:00.

5 MP chain af102 sleeves
1 MP chain af102 leggings

I till don't think it happend and sometimes pinches my arm to see if I'am dreaming.

 

[Solid]

Cero fancy selling me a pair of Sleeves? (no seriousl I wanna buy a pair )

 

[Roalith]

Originally posted by old.Trine Aquavit
Crafting MP's may seem 'streaky' but that's the nature of randomness

It's been scientifically proven that 'streaky' results happen in randomness much more often than the human mind would predict - ask someone to pick a list of 6 random numbers and people will very rarely pick 2 adjacent numbers. Then take the national lottery for example - every week you see a pair of adjacent numbers.

This is exactly what I mean when I say 'playing the numbers' though - I'm now 99% certain that crafting using this method increases your chances of producing MPs.

 

[the_smurflord]

Originally posted by Roalith

This is exactly what I mean when I say 'playing the numbers' though - I'm now 99% certain that crafting using this method increases your chances of producing MPs.

But if you repeat this experiment a few times, I'll bet you'll be 99% certain on the first 9 tries, then 65% certain on the 10th.

 

[knudden]

i think it goes like this every try is like hmmm... doing a /ramdom 100
and when u make a non-masterpiece its NOT gonna be /ramdom 99 for next try and so on
the odds stay the same

but hey i dident write the code
and i got my own strange rituals for making a MP

 

[Roalith]

Originally posted by knudden
i think it goes like this every try is like hmmm... doing a /ramdom 100
and when u make a non-masterpiece its NOT gonna be /ramdom 99 for next try and so on
the odds stay the same

but hey i dident write the code
and i got my own strange rituals for making a MP

I am fully aware of the chance of making an MP (1 in 50, actually). I am also aware that there is no 'record' kept of how many attempts since your last MP. What I'm basically trying to say in bright red lights is: THIS IS HOW TO PLAY THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOUR

 

[knudden]

THE ODDS STAY THE SAME

 

[Roalith]

Yes, that's what I'm getting at - the odds do stay the same, however you can take advantage of this; because the odds stay the same in that concurrent results of similar qualities are more likely than people think (IE 2 MPs within 10 tries), you can use the odds to your advantage.

 

[knudden]

so what u say are that ppl should not stop crafting when they make a MP cuz the next might as well be one?

 

[old.mattshanes]

Just got a mp jambiya took 71 retries

 

[Roalith]

No, Knudden, I'm saying that crafting trinkets, or components, or even woolen gloves until you get an MP, THEN crafting the item you're trying to make an MP will most likely result in a masterpiece item needing fewer retries than one made using the standard retry-until-eternity method.

 

[Roalith]

/flex

This happened twice out of 2 attempts today.

First instance: 67 hinges, MP on the 67th. 5 chain sleeves later, MP sleeves.

This instance: 179 hinges, MP on the 179th. 4 helms later, MP helm.

 

[- Pathfinder -]

I tested this while hinging myself; in 9 out of 10 instances, I got a 2nd MP within 15 hinges of the first MP

 

[<Wels>]

I wouldn't ingore this if I was crafter.
And yes the human mind might perhaps look for paterns all the time, but look where it have got us so far,yeah you can insert some random irony here, but still, having some kind of system might be better than no system.

 

[Novamir]

wow scary. i had heard of this method over on the VN boards, but thought it was a load of crap.