Masterpiece orders

[nerve]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by old.Odysseus


ad 1)
You said a computer not could make random numbers. For this to be true, you must at the very least tell me your definition of the term random.
A widely accepted way to define it is that you use the random generator to flip a coin. If you, using all your knowledge etc, can predict the outcome with more than 50% accuracy in a very large number of tries, you have disproved randomness.

I agree with this definition mate, so that's solved.

Originally posted by old.Odysseus

I challenge you to set up a similar test on masterpieces (do hinges to get it done faster).
Assuming masterpiece generation is based on the same generator as /random, a macro, 10-12 hours and a logfile would do the trick.

Well, I never claimed I knew and could prove the pseudo rng to be faulty, I just say we shouldn't just say 'rubbish' to the theory that it actually is...

Originally posted by old.Odysseus

ad 2)
It is common procedure in the software development business to use the Random function built into the language you are using. The source code for these functions are rarely available (and since they work, noone bothers to check it anyway). Hence, developers rarely know the specifics of the Random function they are using.

Yup, totally agree on that one again, but fact is we don't know for sure. They might have written one for themselves (ok, a bit unlikely). But also, most functions available in languages might 'work', but still are far from true random...

 

[nerve]

Originally posted by Pin
The only real way to guarantee good luck is to go LD part way through a make.

On all the occasions this happened while skilling Katou I had a skill raise.

On all the occasions this happened while doing MP orders, I got a MP.


I went LD on 976 skill, came back in and it took a grand total of 41 makes to hit 1000 (with raises 4 in a row, 5 in a row, 8 in 10, etc...).

LDs are the way to go!

Gratz mate, you just disproved your whole point. This method claims that the 'random' generator CAN be tricked.

I rest my case.

 

[Pin]

Originally posted by nerve


Gratz mate, you just disproved your whole point. This method claims that the 'random' generator CAN be tricked.

I rest my case.

Sorry you weren't able to detect sarcasm in my post. Of course, going LD has absolutely nothing to do with it.


Just the same as moving to a different location has nothing to do with it, or logging on at a different time, or the number of people around you, or the number of hinges (or anything) you make prior to attempting masterpieces, etc, etc.

It's a PRNG, devs type Random() in their code and are done with it. Nothing more to discuss.

 

[Pin]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by nerve


Oh good, pulling out the old degree thing, well I can add a 'me too' to what you said, so gratz to myself.

STILL, this is in no way proof that they're either useing a self coded (simple) algorithm or a precoded library. You are just assuming out of own experience, and I always say to this:

When you ASSUME, you make an ASS out of U and ME.


This is why I hate these random generator discussions, they tend to sidetrack VERY fast.

Fine then, if you want another reason. I'm a software engineer. If I want a random number, I type rand() and get on with the next bit of code, I don't go off and spend 2 years developing my own PRNG because I am suspicious of the library function that's already installed.

 

[nerve]

Originally posted by Pin


Sorry you weren't able to detect sarcasm in my post. Of course, going LD has absolutely nothing to do with it.


Just the same as moving to a different location has nothing to do with it, or logging on at a different time, or the number of people around you, or the number of hinges (or anything) you make prior to attempting masterpieces, etc, etc.

It's a PRNG, devs type Random() in their code and are done with it. Nothing more to discuss.

Oh I did, but you didn't detect the 'This method claims' part in my sentence I guess. Anyway, as once again this discussion will turn bad soon, I'm giving it a rest now...

Still, Nerve's House of Pain is taking MP orders on lvl 51 weapons

 

[Draylor]

Originally posted by Pin
Nothing more to discuss.

You wish. There will be another such thread with much the same comments within a week.

 

[Pin]

Originally posted by nerve

Still, Nerve's House of Pain is taking MP orders on lvl 51 weapons

And Katou's Shop of Shiny Things is taking MP orders at (marginally) below cost price

 

[Flimgoblin]

chance of getting a masterpiece in one try: 0.02

chance of not getting a masterpiece in any one try: 0.98

chance of not getting a masterpiece 143 times in a row= 0.98^143=0.056

1/20 ... not too unlikely. Unlucky but not hideously so.

after 200 combines it's
0.006 which is less than 1% so if that happens you're cursed.

Chances of you not getting a master piece after 500 combines is
0.00005. If that happens - start believing in witchcraft and look suspiciously at your competitors.

 

[Flimgoblin]

we cannot say for 100% certainty that they didn't write their own random number generator.

However they'd be bloody stupid if they did... rand() so much easier

The only way you can 'beat' the random number generator is a: to know the seed, b: to know the algorithm

and assuming it's a simple step-based iterative one to know which step you are on.

Then you can wait for the exact number of to-hit,resist, to-aggro etc. /randoms are run to press your craft and get the 100 result.

 

[Pin]

Originally posted by Fingoniel

The only way you can 'beat' the random number generator is a: to know the seed, b: to know the algorithm

and assuming it's a simple step-based iterative one to know which step you are on.

Then you can wait for the exact number of to-hit,resist, to-aggro etc. /randoms are run to press your craft and get the 100 result.

now, that's what I call an "I WIN!!!111" button

 

[Belomar]

Originally posted by old.LandShark
They teach roving storytellers statistics, Belomar?

Oops, busted! I guess I don't write stories for a living IRL.

 

[belth]

Originally posted by Fingoniel
However they'd be bloody stupid if they did... rand() so much easier

Now the question is, is the rand() done client or serverside?

 

['Shy]

So it's random then?

Shameless plug : taking 99% and MP orders at very reasonable prices. PM me in game, I'm always there! Err.. except when I'm here..