Masterpiece orders

['Shy]

Yesterday I spent over 5 hours and 144 retries making masterpiece leather leggings for a customer. Question for all you mathematics geeks out there :

The probablility should be 2%, average 50 tries for a MP. Is this on some kind of timer I wonder? For example, if I go LD after 2 hours does that probability reset?

Or was I (and indeed the customer) just extremely unlucky?

:doh:

GOA - I'd like to make an offical complaint and reclaim my 3698g please..

 

[Talifer]

I doubt it's a timer of anykind, it's 2% every time you make an item. Basically it's just like picking up a dice and throwing it. Your time to make a MP is 2% this time, if you make 2000 items with no MP you chance of making a MP with the next go is still 2%. It's highly unlikely but you could make 10 MPs in a row

Making a MP is the same chance as typing /random 100 and a 1 or a 2 coming up

Talifer

 

[Draylor]

Ouch - just an unlucky run though

 

[Khalen]

I think we all had an unlucky day yesterday. Had 20+ tries necessary for a 99%er and I know someone else who had over 100+ tries needed for a MP leather boots

 

[Pin]

Well, my MP jerkin took something over 300 attempts to make.


And yesterday I had a MP shield order. MP came on the 36th try, but only had 2 99s on the way there (average would have been 6)..... At least I got another MP on the 37th attempt (I was making parts in batches of 10 and had 4 to finish off).


Luck is luck, random is random. Make 10 billion attempts and tell me how many MPs you make

 

[old.LandShark]

Wish I could sell my MP jerkin =/

 

[Tobold]

don't take mp orders?

take lower ones, and when you get lucky with a MP, auction that

 

[old.Zeikerd]

If you get unlucky, go craft in an uncrowded place, like Beno, or DC. It seems you get more lucky if not as many people are crafting there.

 

[knockout]

i was pissed about my 177 MP tries for a Long dirk

well last nite i got 1 on 3rd try so that kind of evens it out.

And yes im stoping MP orders. 100 tries and no shield made me stop.

Cant xp on MP orders anymore now that i reached 1065, so its time to give those to the ppl 1020-1064.

 

[old.Reno]

Getting an Mp on the 144th try should be a 5.5 % chance if my probability calculation holds up.

Danita

 

[Pin]

Originally posted by old.Reno
Getting an Mp on the 144th try should be a 5.5 % chance if my probability calculation holds up.

Danita

Actually, that would be the probability of you not getting one in 143 consecutive attempts.

The probability of getting one on the 144th try is 2%, the same as for getting one on the 1st, 2nd, and any other attempt.

 

[Vim]

There isn't such thing as "probability". In theory you could throw 100 sided dice unlimited times and still not get 1 or 2 Same applies to crafting.

 

[Mishy]

Originally posted by old.Zeikerd
If you get unlucky, go craft in an uncrowded place, like Beno, or DC. It seems you get more lucky if not as many people are crafting there.

tryed that theory in various places, doesnt seem to make a difference.

 

[Khalen]

What I do noticed that after patches/crashes I get a MP quicker.. but then again it might be the random factor.. Mysteries....

 

['Shy]

Could be true about moving to a different place. Normally I craft in Excal. I got two MP's in Beno today making simple cloth for an armour crafter. Grrr. That stuff doesn't sell!

Still...... the addiction is there! Got an order for a full MP leather suit today and I just have to do it!!!

 

[Pin]

Originally posted by Vim
There isn't such thing as "probability". In theory you could throw 100 sided dice unlimited times and still not get 1 or 2 Same applies to crafting.

Errrrrr.. What do you think "probability" is?

Probability is the mathematical term for "chance", or "in theory you could ...".

So in your example (which has the same probability of not crafting a masterpiece), the probability of rolling a 100-sided (evenly balanced) die once and not getting a 1 or 2 is 0.98.

The probability of rolling the 100-sided die n times and not getting a 1 or 2 is 0.98^n.

As n tends to infinity (rolling an unlimited number of times), the probability of not getting a 1 or 2 tends to 0 (gets closer to, but doesn't reach 0). So yes, you could roll this die an unlimited number of times and not get a 1 or 2.

But people consider themselves unlucky when n starts to get large as the probability of it happening is so low.


And to the theories on how to make a masterpiece come quicker, I would bet 5 masterpiece weapons that it really had no influence (except psychological) whatsoever. I would expect that the chance (of this and everything else random in the game) is as simple as the result of a pseudo-random number generator seeded by the time at which the event occurred.

 

[nerve]

Oh no, not the random discussion

Hmmmm,

there are only 2 facts when it comes to the DAoC random number generator:

1) True random numbers simply CANNOT be generated by a computerprogram. There's always a seed value involved, and some sort of logic to progress from that seed

2) Only the developers know how it works

I for one believe (and I do say 'believe') that the rng is not as random as it should be, simply because decent rng algorithms require alot of processing power, a resource DAoC-servers cannot spill with...

Oh btw, i'm taking MP orders ;-)

Nerve
Legendary Weapon Crafter - Shopkeeper of Nerve's House of Pain

 

[Pin]

Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by nerve
Hmmmm,

there are only 2 facts when it comes to the DAoC random number generator:

1) True random numbers simply CANNOT be generated by a computerprogram. There's always a seed value involved, and some sort of logic to progress from that seed

2) Only the developers know how it works

I for one believe (and I do say 'believe') that the rng is not as random as it should be, simply because decent rng algorithms require alot of processing power, a resource DAoC-servers cannot spill with...

Oh btw, i'm taking MP orders ;-)

Nerve
Legendary Weapon Crafter - Shopkeeper of Nerve's House of Pain

Actually, I'd also bet that the PRNG is just a library function and the devs don't know and wouldn't care about how it works. And no, PRNGs do not take any real processing power, most of them are as simple as a LUT, with a fairly simple function applied to the result.


And yes, I'm taking MP orders too

 

[old.Odysseus]

Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by nerve

1) True random numbers simply CANNOT be generated by a computerprogram. There's always a seed value involved, and some sort of logic to progress from that seed

2) Only the developers know how it works

ad 1)
Define random?

ad 2)
No, the developers use a library function, which they know nothing about.

On a sidenote, most random number generators are very deterministic, which is quite ironic really.

 

[Belomar]

Originally posted by Vim
There isn't such thing as "probability". In theory you could throw 100 sided dice unlimited times and still not get 1 or 2 Same applies to crafting.

Hmm. I suggest you go get yourself a real education.

 

[old.LandShark]

They teach roving storytellers statistics, Belomar?

 

[nerve]

Re: Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by old.Odysseus


ad 1)
Define random?


ad 2)
No, the developers use a library function, which they know nothing about.

On a sidenote, most random number generators are very deterministic, which is quite ironic really.

1) Let's not get phylosophical shall we ?
2) They might, but how come you and Katou are so sure about this ? Someone been icing around ?

 

[Pin]

Re: Re: Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by nerve


2) They might, but how come you and Katou are so sure about this ? Someone been icing around ?

Degrees in maths/stats/computing and employment in similar?

 

[BadJelly]

Random

What people don't realise is that employees of Mythic & GOA get perks like every other company. In their case however it is to sit in the big GOD chair in front of a massive plasma screen which can be zoomed in to any area of any realm and can single out of the 'little people' (that's us btw) for special attention.

Now this might be anything from slipping a quick LD into the middle of a busy pull, to making the person you are stuck to accidentally slip off a ledge in DF, or in this case un-ticking the box marked "crafting quality above 95% allowed?"

Imagine the fun at lunchtime for those overworked and overstressed Mythic employees. The japes they have after work over a quiet herbal tea.

I remember when I used to play tribes and watched a match demo where one of the match admins had said that 'BadJelly was in his opinion the worst player name he had ever seen'. Maybe this is what seems to be singling me out for my special treatment.

300+ attempts for a MP pair of boots the other day, 125 goes for a jerkin before that. 36 attempts on arms last night with none of them over 96% I'm special, surely noone else can have luck this bad

Shame I can't remember anyone talking about runs where they got 36 goes with nothing below 97% I also cling to the illusion that other people are my jinx, that the location is my jinx, that the time of day, the rain, whether the Guard called George is on duty is my jinx in the hope that it isn't just the case that it is as random as you can hope for on a PC and that we're just attempting to see something Machiavellian on which to vent our spleens.

HO hum.

BJ

P.S. As with other shameless crafters using this thread for advertising, I am taking MP orders, and 99% orders and have a fair amount of stock. MSG me in game if you need any help

 

[Cowled]

Originally posted by ~shy~
Yesterday I spent over 5 hours and 144 retries making masterpiece leather leggings for a customer. Question for all you mathematics geeks out there :

The probablility should be 2%, average 50 tries for a MP. Is this on some kind of timer I wonder? For example, if I go LD after 2 hours does that probability reset?

Or was I (and indeed the customer) just extremely unlucky?

:doh:

GOA - I'd like to make an offical complaint and reclaim my 3698g please..

A good tip:
Salvage 1 df AF 98 helmet, 133 bars, and therefore 60~ hinges..

Do this, without ANY masterpieces.. then it will come fast afterwards

Damn bugged game

 

[Pin]

Re: Re: Masterpiece orders

Originally posted by Cowled


A good tip:
Salvage 1 df AF 98 helmet, 133 bars, and therefore 60~ hinges..

Do this, without ANY masterpieces.. then it will come fast afterwards

Damn bugged game

This, of course, is absolute bollocks.

 

[Pin]

The only real way to guarantee good luck is to go LD part way through a make.

On all the occasions this happened while skilling Katou I had a skill raise.

On all the occasions this happened while doing MP orders, I got a MP.


I went LD on 976 skill, came back in and it took a grand total of 41 makes to hit 1000 (with raises 4 in a row, 5 in a row, 8 in 10, etc...).

LDs are the way to go!

 

[old.Odysseus]

Re: Re: Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by nerve


1) Let's not get phylosophical shall we ?
2) They might, but how come you and Katou are so sure about this ? Someone been icing around ?

ad 1)
You said a computer not could make random numbers. For this to be true, you must at the very least tell me your definition of the term random.
A widely accepted way to define it is that you use the random generator to flip a coin. If you, using all your knowledge etc, can predict the outcome with more than 50% accuracy in a very large number of tries, you have disproved randomness.
I challenge you to set up a similar test on masterpieces (do hinges to get it done faster).
Assuming masterpiece generation is based on the same generator as /random, a macro, 10-12 hours and a logfile would do the trick.

ad 2)
It is common procedure in the software development business to use the Random function built into the language you are using. The source code for these functions are rarely available (and since they work, noone bothers to check it anyway). Hence, developers rarely know the specifics of the Random function they are using.

 

[nerve]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Oh no, not the random discussion

Originally posted by Pin


Degrees in maths/stats/computing and employment in similar?

Oh good, pulling out the old degree thing, well I can add a 'me too' to what you said, so gratz to myself.

STILL, this is in no way proof that they're either useing a self coded (simple) algorithm or a precoded library. You are just assuming out of own experience, and I always say to this:

When you ASSUME, you make an ASS out of U and ME.


This is why I hate these random generator discussions, they tend to sidetrack VERY fast.

 

[old.Odysseus]

Noone (in their right mind) use homemade random generators.
Why would they? They are built into all modern programming languages.