Heh.. 180 remakes and counting..

[-mamba-]

worst run which i kept track of was 184 retries for a leather helm .. also have given up a few times after 100+ tries when deal was for fixed price of 40-50 retries (not paid in advance)

was also funny, got to 1153 tailoring before making first mp leather jerkin even, that was hundreds of jerkins done over a few months without luck, made 1 cloth vest before that though

 

[Jenkz]

Done 200 remakes now, and still no luck

/cry

 

[Sharma]

Originally posted by Jenkz
Done 200 remakes now, and still no luck

/cry

bloody hell, i feel sorry for you

 

[old.windforce]

38 tries on 99% shield as LM WC, green item
17 tries on 98% gem as LM SC, grey item

7 99% gems in a row (lucky Hrodelbert)

something is .... just wrong

 

[garron]

worst i had was when i made one of me axes was 170 retries~
made all those retries in a row and no mp,got to fed up and logged for the night.
Next day , first try mp :I

 

[Biby]

Record in one way is: 154 retrys with 102 studded sleeves.
Record in other way is : www.hot.ee/bigm/O/NerfMe

 

[old.Bubble]

Originally posted by Bigade
/em cries irl

/me Slaps Bigade with the Kitchen Sink!
Cry More!

 

[Lochlyessa]

Took over from Jenkz doing bigade's leggings.

Update: 300 attempts and still no MP :l

 

[Sharma]

oh..


my....


god...


damn poor Bigade

 

[Bigade]

/rudes bubble

 

[mordia]

Must suck to be payer Bigade

 

[1234Taz]

poor bigade uke:

 

[Gorb]

Originally posted by dJyng
To make an MP there is an 2% Chance?
This gives us 95% chance of making MP in 150 retries.

Originally posted by trigali
That is not correct, dJyng.

2% chance a try a try is not 95% chance in 150 retries as far as I understand it.

Each time you start a craft, the statistics are reset. You have 2% chance of a MP on the first try, and 2% on the 10th, etc.

I don't think your chances increase of making a masterpiece as you try longer. You simply keep trying until you get lucky, the chances of your success remain exactly the same: 2%.

In other words, you are saying that my chances of winning the lottery increase the longer I play. This is not true, as each draw is brand new and not connected to the one before. Each time I play, I have exactly as many chances to win as the time before (not many).

Well DJyng was correct with his post (and he already made it clear in a later post). Let's take coin tossing for an example. If you toss a coin for 1000 times, you are likely to get about 500 heads and 500 tails. The chances of not getting any tails in 7 attempts is around 1% (It's not 50%, though with Trigalis theory it would be). You can even test it. Toss a coin for 7 times, and you will propably get tails at least once in those 7 attempts.

And by no means did Djyng mean that chances for getting a masterpiece at the 150th attempt would be 95%. It still is 2%, but the chances, that you will get a masterpiece before 150th try is 95%.

How many times have you crafted? How many times has it taken more then 150 attempts? The propability of not getting a masterpiece before your 150th attempt is 5%. And I believe that 19/20 when going for a masterpiece it takes less then 150 attempts.

I hope, that someone got the idea.

 

[maxgirth]

Originally posted by Gorb
Well DJyng was correct with his post (and he already made it clear in a later post). Let's take coin tossing for an example. If you toss a coin for 1000 times, you are likely to get about 500 heads and 500 tails. The chances of not getting any tails in 7 attempts is around 1% (It's not 50%, though with Trigalis theory it would be). You can even test it. Toss a coin for 7 times, and you will propably get tails at least once in those 7 attempts.

And by no means did Djyng mean that chances for getting a masterpiece at the 150th attempt would be 95%. It still is 2%, but the chances, that you will get a masterpiece before 150th try is 95%.

How many times have you crafted? How many times has it taken more then 150 attempts? The propability of not getting a masterpiece before your 150th attempt is 5%. And I believe that 19/20 when going for a masterpiece it takes less then 150 attempts.

I hope, that someone got the idea.

Kind of,but I thought as the chance of getting an MP is 2%, then the chances of getting one before 100 retries would be 98%

 

[chretien]

Kind of,but I thought as the chance of getting an MP is 2%, then the chances of getting one before 100 retries would be 98%

Nope cos if you make 100 tries you would have on average 2 MPs but the chance of getting any number of MPs is better than that. Someone less tired and better at statistics than I am will no doubt post the maths involved.

 

[mid_Efour]

dont try and find order in chaos- u string theory, maths crazed random lunatics.

i sat down and made MP bow in 1 try lastnight hows that?

 

[bigchief]

Originally posted by chretien
Nope cos if you make 100 tries you would have on average 2 MPs but the chance of getting any number of MPs is better than that. Someone less tired and better at statistics than I am will no doubt post the maths involved.

Originally posted by dJyng
I'll make 150 attempts and my chances of making one or more MP's is 95%. (100% minus the probabillity to fail 150 times in a row: 1-0.98^150 = 95%)

Looks right to me (though its 4:30am so id better reread it tommorow )

 

[breon2]

Sounds like everyone is having bad luck out there atm.

While making my Mp suit i allways attempt 25 at a time.

Managed to make most of them within the 25 and a few extra

Only need a BP now and i got a spare suit .
( and no i wont sell the bits. if my suit dosent blow up it will be up for auction shortly as a full mp suit)

 

[hangianix]

Originally posted by mid_Efour
dont try and find order in chaos- u string theory, maths crazed random lunatics.

i sat down and made MP bow in 1 try lastnight hows that?

CHEAT!!!! Maybe Edlina can tell us how was/is it working.

 

[old.windforce]

nevermind

 

[chretien]

It's now up to 240 retries. I've taken over trying to get these bloody legs and so far no luck.

 

[old.windforce]

omg

there should be some fundraising for this

ill donate 100 gp for the unlucky victim

pm me ingame

EDITED: ONLY BIGADE WILL GET MONEY ...

 

[Validus]

Originally posted by old.windforce
EDITED: ONLY BIGADE WILL GET MONEY ...

lol

<imagines lowbies claiming to be bigades helpers wanting 100g>

"I READ ON FORUMS U GIVE WHO HELP BIGADE 100G! GIVE 200G SO U NO NEED GIVE AGAIN??"

 

[Bigade]

Hurray finally after 384 retries and 22p+ i have got my mp leggings! thank you chretian

 

[Sharma]

Now for the Breatplate...


oh dear....

 

[Sharma]

Now for the Breastplate...


oh dear....

 

[chretien]

Yeah, I was so happy to see that message pop up. You wouldn't believe the amount of MP strapping I made trying to get em either.

<edit: it was 284 retries in the end, I thought it was up to 300 when I took over instead of 200 retries>

 

[SoulFly Amarok]

Originally posted by Bigade
Hurray finally after 384 retries and 22p+ i have got my mp leggings! thank you chretian

And they go boom @ 5 point oc =

 

[Lochlyessa]

Originally posted by chretien
Yeah, I was so happy to see that message pop up. You wouldn't believe the amount of MP strapping I made trying to get em either.

<edit: it was 284 retries in the end, I thought it was up to 300 when I took over instead of 200 retries>

It was, I did 90 retries on em after jenkz finished ><

 

[Kharok Svark]

http://forums.barrysworld.com/showthread.php?threadid=58676

This may raise a smile ...