Question bail-out package and general market stuff

[Furr]

With the bailout package in the states having been voted down in the US, just how bad are things about to get? Some people seem to think this week is going to be financial Armageddon others are saying meh! it'll be fineeeee.

 

[Gumbo]

It's serious, very serious, but sadly, hugely predictable too.

 

[mank!]

i'm spending all my money on material objects before the world ends

 

[Embattle]

Everyone will be affected in some way, although it'll be by varying amounts and the reality is that the bail-out being voted down just means it is going to be reworked and sent back in for another vote.

 

[Cadelin]

The banks will be bailed out, the plan will just be changed slightly.

 

[SilverHood]

It's a total disaster. The politicians were warned that financial meltdown would ensue if they didn't approve it. Something like £100 bill drop in the value of US shares ensues, and we're going to be seeing runs on the smaller US banks. National City is mentioned, but they say they haven't got liquidity problems. That's what Bear Sterns said and it's what Lehman said... It's what WaMu said and it's what Wachovia said... The latter 2 will be history by the end of next week. The first 2 already gone, the bright blue glow of Barclays Group Plc now visible from Times Square.

They need to unwind the securities so they can assess the worth of them, and then get rid of the bad ones and re-sell the good ones. As long as each bank sits on a small % of the same loan, no government buy out is ever going to work, since they can't price it accurately, and it will be seen like the banks are making money on selling the securities back to the government... which they are, since the capital needs to be pumped back into the system somehow. Damned if they dont, and damned if they do.

Ah well, they're not voting on it again until Thursday, which gives us 2 1/2 days of joyriding the economic rollercoaster. I just hope I still have a job at the end of it

 

[Raven]

Nice time to buy a few shares in the right companies. They will bounce back, they always do, in the mean time make some money out of it if you can, sadly I can't afford it at the moment

 

[Scouse]

Nice time to buy a few shares in the right companies. They will bounce back, they always do, in the mean time make some money out of it if you can, sadly I can't afford it at the moment

Oh dear, oh dear.

/shakes head at lack of comprehension.

Maybe there'll be a three or six-month rally but it's gonna be a bear market for at least a couple of years...

But yay capitalism, eh?!

 

[Chilly]

liquidated my ISA a couple months back, fucking glad I did. Although having said that I wish id done it 6 months previous to that when it would still have shown a net profit

 

[Ciar2001]

it's bad, I work in Finance not as a trader but the other side of the fence, at the moment the FTSE is actually up from it's lows on the day from 4671.02 back up to 4816.19, and dow futures are currently showing +181 so there is going to be a small rally in terms of the loss yesterday, but in general it is bad it's going to get worse it has to until the US ratify's the bailout and banks start moving their bad debt into the vehicle which is going to hold it until it either expires or gains value again.

as for the EU that's a different kettle of fish depending on which country you look at they all have different issues, here in the UK the housing and buy to let market are the big issues, in other countries it's banks affected by the US fallout in Germany,Belgium so on so forth and the general downturn caused by the credit crunch which actually started back in Feb last year but didn't really rear it's ugly head until June of last year.

any ways that's just my opinion on what's going as for what's coming who knows lol.

 

[Marc]

Nice time to buy a few shares in the right companies. They will bounce back, they always do, in the mean time make some money out of it if you can, sadly I can't afford it at the moment

Not really the advice a supposed "accountant" should be giving right now.

Ive had various clients of mine asking wether its a good time to buy shares and what they should do with their savings over and above the guarnteed limit by the government. True, there is money to be made on the stock market, but ONLY if you know what you are doing. Just picking a few companies whos stocks are low at the moment, due to the credit crunch, isnt really a safe gamble at all.

If you really want to invest in the stock market, do some research and visit a professional in that field.

If you are worried about your savings, Gilts are the way forward. Granted your return wont be the best, but at last they are pretty much guranteed in their entirity

 

[old.user4556]

Yes this a very grim time for all. Very, very bad.

I hope they push this through one way or another, I think we need to start over and wipe the slate clean; and in the process, hope to fucking mary and christ that everyone learns from this complete disaster.

Hopefully this will allow banks to start lending to each other again so things can start to pickup in the UK before theres another casuality here. As soon as some confidence is restored in the banking market, people will start to invest in banks again and things might level out.

In my opinion, banking as we knew it, is fucking over. Cheap and easy mortgages are a thing of the past, it'll be a return to strict and prudent banking (not that all lenders were irresponsible, large UK banks are pretty decent).

 

[SilverHood]

Ah well, the runs have started on the small US banks. Was a big queue at my local Chase and Bank of America, people stuffing their money in safe banks.

They just announced 2000 jobs are to goat my workplace. That's like 10-15% of the workforce. Already had a massive cut in March and only essential personel has been replaced. Ah well, can only hope for the best. My team already got cut back then, and I'm literally the last man standing.

Indeed Big G, banking as we know it is over. To get a loan now, you need to have stellar credit rating and proof of future earnings. As for Investment Banking, the big ones left - Goldman and Morgan Stanley, will scale down considerably, with most of their talent forming their own small specialised funds.
Rather than the 10 or so powerhouses we've had over the last 10 years, we'll see 40-50 smaller specialised companies, though the big banks will naturally always have a big presence (if they stay in business).

 

[Raven]

Oh dear, oh dear.

/shakes head at lack of comprehension.

Maybe there'll be a three or six-month rally but it's gonna be a bear market for at least a couple of years...

But yay capitalism, eh?!

quite, but if you buy shares at rock bottom then there is only really only one way they can go and that is up

 

[Raven]

Not really the advice a supposed "accountant" should be giving right now.

I am not an accountant, i gave up that monotony years ago.

 

[Chilly]

Accountants are not investment advisors anyway, strictly speaking.

 

[Marc]

I am not an accountant, i gave up that monotony years ago.

Really? It was only a few months ago you called yourself an accountant in OT. Make up your mind.

 

[old.user4556]

Man I have SO MISSED the general forum.

Fingers crossed for the multi billion bail out and the Lloyds merger, however:

NOTHING CAN POSSIBLY GO WRONG WITH GIGANTIC NEW BANK - The Daily Mash

 

[Raven]

Really? It was only a few months ago you called yourself an accountant in OT. Make up your mind.

No, I said I was CIMA qualified.

 

[xane]

In my opinion, banking as we knew it, is fucking over. Cheap and easy mortgages are a thing of the past, it'll be a return to strict and prudent banking (not that all lenders were irresponsible, large UK banks are pretty decent).

You forget that banks are not the only ones with easy credit available for mortgages, the traditional place for mortgages was the mutual building society and I think these will make a comeback, reversing the demutualisation trend.

The world of finance gave banks, and then investment houses, far too long a leash in establishing debt instruments, which they used to undercut the traditional mutuals, it was a bubble waiting to burst. Now the barrow boys have been chucked out the mortgage game we can return to responsible lending, I don't think it will make mortgages harder to come by.

 

[old.user4556]

Whatever next.

BBC NEWS | Business | Government to unveil bank rescue

 

[Chilly]

Round up all bank CEOs and FSA top dogs for the last 10 years and jail the lot of the greedy, useless fucking *****.

As for that rescue package, the last 25 of them didnt do a lot, will this one really fix anything?

Hope maggie is proud her giant financial liberation went so well.

 

[Raven]

You mean the one that turned to shit as soon as labour got in power and sold off our gold reserves at far less than the market value then proceeded to borrow when they had spanked that up the wall, to prop up a failing economy?

 

[throdgrain]

Thats the one.

 

[dysfunction]

Some things don't change: Days after AIG's $85bn rescue, insurer hosted banquets | Business | The Guardian

And some good news!

The bank of England have reduced interest rates to 4.5%!!

 

[DaGaffer]

Some things don't change: Days after AIG's $85bn rescue, insurer hosted banquets | Business | The Guardian

And some good news!

The bank of England have reduced interest rates to 4.5%!!

What a very Guardianesque article. A. They wouldn't have got their money back if they'd cancelled, B. It doesn't say how many people were at this event, C. They'd never have paid rack rates for the rooms D. You can be damn sure they won't be doing it next year!

Interest rate cut is good news. It also means the pound will get weaker though, which actually helps me as I'm soon to be paid in Euros.

 

[Scouse]

What a very Guardianesque article. A. They wouldn't have got their money back if they'd cancelled, B. It doesn't say how many people were at this event, C. They'd never have paid rack rates for the rooms D. You can be damn sure they won't be doing it next year! .

How fucking apologist can you get?! Dad a banker or something?

You can be damn sure they'll be doing something like this on a daily basis...


What they should do to fix this "bank" scam:

1) Round up the 250 richest people in the UK and take their money off them.
2) Give them a house in Nottingham and 100k each.
3) Use the money recovered to fund the banks.

Net result: More than 50 billion recovered, 250 previously filthy rich people still living in relative comfort compared to the rest of the nation.

Of course, we'll use taxpayers money instead, so the NHS, police, local council projects for the poor etc. get underfunded, whilst bankers still get to keep their riches.

That's what happens when the rich make the rules. They make sure there's no risk to them or their families first, then they fuck the country over.

 

[DaGaffer]

Well for a kick off this was about AIG, so not a British company; but that's beside the point; there was no financial context for the article. Lots of companies, not just in banking, run corporate conferences where they fly in loads of people from all over the world, and these events can and do cost hundreds of thousands; but its missing the point; its sensationalising something that's actually utterly trivial in the scheme of things to make a point about "corporate fat cat bastards". And yes, in next year's budget AIG will almost certainly cut this out because it probably came from the HR or Marketing budgets and they'll be the first things to get cut.

As it happens I agree with you about the £50bn tax money; without proper corporate governence, who's to say they won't be back cap in hand in a few months? On the other hand, £50bn spent in the public sector right now doesn't do much for you if the country is bankrupt a year later.

As for whining about the rich making the rules, get over yourself; there will always be elites, they will always fuck the rest of us over, and they will always cover their own arses, and if you topple them their replacements will always be just as bad five minutes later. All you can do is ride it out as best you can.

 

[Scouse]

I know it's an American insurance company but, lets face it, it's the same for the banks. The article is about fat-cats living it up at corporate expense - why not have a pop at them? Where are the perks of the job for the average worker?

I've a friend who's on the board of a successful marketing company. He came to me one day and said something along the lines of "when I was broke, just out of Uni, working in a bar on a pittance I needed all the perks that I get now - healthcare, bonuses, company car etc. etc, but now I've got the job and money's on-tap I don't need all the bonuses, but get them anyway..."

Then he laughed a bit and bought a bottle of champers. Oh how he giggled at the poor folk who have never, and will never, make it.

As for whining about the rich making the rules, get over yourself; there will always be elites, they will always fuck the rest of us over, and they will always cover their own arses, and if you topple them their replacements will always be just as bad five minutes later. All you can do is ride it out as best you can.

I'm over myself. I've done alright out of this capitalist society. I own my own home, admittedly in a poo bit of Notts., but it's mine and I've not had to work for the last 10 months. (I couldn't for 6 of them anyway due to loss of legs, but that's beside the point - I've still not signed-on).

However, that shouldn't mean that I can't have a principled and ideological viewpoint on fat-cats/the banking system/capitalism as a whole.

If you had your way we'd all just "put up" with the shit. That's your choice - but you don't have to put up with it quietly. In fact, in a democratic society we should be shouting to high heavens about it...

 

[DaGaffer]

Then he laughed a bit and bought a bottle of champers. Oh how he giggled at the poor folk who have never, and will never, make it.

Did he really? Most rich people I've known don't see the world that way. They don't laugh at the the "poor folk" because they don't really think about them at all.

However, that shouldn't mean that I can't have a principled and ideological viewpoint on fat-cats/the banking system/capitalism as a whole.

If you had your way we'd all just "put up" with the shit. That's your choice - but you don't have to put up with it quietly. In fact, in a democratic society we should be shouting to high heavens about it...

I didn't say that at all. I said you're basically better off making the best job you can within the system, both for yourself and others. "A principled and ideological viewpoint" gives you what exactly? Will it help you create a new utopia? Will it suddenly create a new political ideology you can vote for at the next election? Will it fuck. You're first mistake is assuming our so-called democracy is anything but an illusion. Meet the new boss...